Valuation bubbles and sequential bubbles

Price bubbles in an Arrow-Debreu valuation equilibrium in infinite-timeeconomy are a manifestation of lack of countable additivity of valuationof assets. In contrast, known examples of price bubbles in sequentialequilibrium in infinite time cannot be attributed to the lack of countableadditivity of valuation. In this paper we develop a theory of valuation ofassets in sequential markets (with no uncertainty) and study the nature ofprice bubbles in light of this theory. We consider an operator, calledpayoff pricing functional, that maps a sequence of payoffs to the minimumcost of an asset holding strategy that generates it. We show that thepayoff pricing functional is linear and countably additive on the set ofpositive payoffs if and only if there is no Ponzi scheme, and providedthat there is no restriction on long positions in the assets. In the knownexamples of equilibrium price bubbles in sequential markets valuation islinear and countably additive. The presence of a price bubble indicatesthat the asset's dividends can be purchased in sequential markers at acost lower than the asset's price. We also present examples of equilibriumprice bubbles in which valuation is nonlinear but not countably additive.

A characterization of sequential rationalizability

A choice function is sequentially rationalizable if there is an ordered collection of asymmetric binary relations that identifies the selected alternative in every choice problem. We propose a property, F-consistency, and show that it characterizes the notion of sequential rationalizability. F-consistency is a testable property that highlights the behavioral aspects implicit in sequentially rationalizable choice. Further, our characterization result provides a novel tool with which to study how other behavioral concepts are related to sequential rationalizability, and establish a priori unexpected implications. In particular, we show that the concept of rationalizability by game trees, which, in principle, had little to do with sequential rationalizability, is a refinement of the latter. Every choice function that is rationalizable by a game tree is also sequentially rationalizable. Finally, we show that some prominent voting mechanisms are also sequentially rationalizable.

A simple randomized algorithm for consistent sequential prediction of ergodic time series

We present a simple randomized procedure for the prediction of a binary sequence. The algorithm uses ideas from recent developments of the theory of the prediction of individual sequences. We show that if thesequence is a realization of a stationary and ergodic random process then the average number of mistakes converges, almost surely, to that of the optimum, given by the Bayes predictor.

Sequential screening

We present a model of price discrimination where a monopolistfaces a consumer who is privately informed about thedistribution of his valuation for an indivisible unit ofgood but has yet to learn privately the actual valuation.The monopolist sequentially screens the consumer with amenu of contracts:the consumer self-selects once by choosing a contract andthen self-selects again when he learns the actual valuation. A deterministic sequential mechanism is a menu of refundcontracts, each consisting of an advance payment and a refundamount in case of no consumption, but sequential mechanismsmay involve randomization.We characterize the optimal sequential mechanism when someconsumer types are more eager in the sense of first-orderstochastic dominance, and when some types face greatervaluation uncertainty in the sense of mean-preserving-spread.We show that it can be optimal to subsidize consumer typeswith smaller valuation uncertainty (through low refund, as inairplane ticket pricing) in order to reduce the rent to thosewith greater uncertainty. The size of distortion depends bothon the type distribution and on how informative the consumer'sinitial private knowledge is about his valuation, but noton how much he initially knows about the valuation per se.

A zero-delay sequential scheme for lossy coding of individual sequences

We consider adaptive sequential lossy coding of bounded individual sequences when the performance is measured by the sequentially accumulated mean squared distortion. Theencoder and the decoder are connected via a noiseless channel of capacity $R$ and both are assumed to have zero delay. No probabilistic assumptions are made on how the sequence to be encoded is generated. For any bounded sequence of length $n$, the distortion redundancy is defined as the normalized cumulative distortion of the sequential scheme minus the normalized cumulative distortion of the best scalarquantizer of rate $R$ which is matched to this particular sequence. We demonstrate the existence of a zero-delay sequential scheme which uses common randomization in the encoder and the decoder such that the normalized maximum distortion redundancy converges to zero at a rate $n^{-1/5}\log n$ as the length of the encoded sequence $n$ increases without bound.

Phase 3 randomized trial on larynx preservation comparing sequential vs alternating chemotherapy and radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Both induction chemotherapy followed by irradiation and concurrent chemotherapy and radiotherapy have been reported as valuable alternatives to total laryngectomy in patients with advanced larynx or hypopharynx cancer. We report results of the randomized phase 3 trial 24954 from the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer. METHODS: Patients with resectable advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the larynx (tumor stage T3-T4) or hypopharynx (T2-T4), with regional lymph nodes in the neck staged as N0-N2 and with no metastasis, were randomly assigned to treatment in the sequential (or control) or the alternating (or experimental) arm. In the sequential arm, patients with a 50% or more reduction in primary tumor size after two cycles of cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil received another two cycles, followed by radiotherapy (70 Gy total). In the alternating arm, a total of four cycles of cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil (in weeks 1, 4, 7, and 10) were alternated with radiotherapy with 20 Gy during the three 2-week intervals between chemotherapy cycles (60 Gy total). All nonresponders underwent salvage surgery and postoperative radiotherapy. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to obtain time-to-event data. RESULTS: The 450 patients were randomly assigned to treatment (224 to the sequential arm and 226 to the alternating arm). Median follow-up was 6.5 years. Survival with a functional larynx was similar in sequential and alternating arms (hazard ratio of death and/or event = 0.85, 95% confidence interval = 0.68 to 1.06), as were median overall survival (4.4 and 5.1 years, respectively) and median progression-free interval (3.0 and 3.1 years, respectively). Grade 3 or 4 mucositis occurred in 64 (32%) of the 200 patients in the sequential arm who received radiotherapy and in 47 (21%) of the 220 patients in the alternating arm. Late severe edema and/or fibrosis was observed in 32 (16%) patients in the sequential arm and in 25 (11%) in the alternating arm. CONCLUSIONS: Larynx preservation, progression-free interval, and overall survival were similar in both arms, as were acute and late toxic effects.

The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and copeptin for predicting survival in ventilator-associated pneumonia.

INTRODUCTION: Ventilator-associated pneumonia remains the most common nosocomial infection in the critically ill and contributes to significant morbidity. Eventual decisions regarding withdrawal or maximal therapy are demanding and rely on physicians' experience. Additional objective tools for risk assessment may improve medical judgement. Copeptin, reflecting vasopressin release, as well as the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, reflecting the individual degree of organ dysfunction, might qualify for survival prediction in ventilator-associated pneumonia. We investigated the predictive value of the SOFA score and copeptin in ventilator-associated pneumonia. METHODS: One hundred one patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia were prospectively assessed. Death within 28 days after ventilator-associated pneumonia onset was the primary end point. RESULTS: The SOFA score and the copeptin levels at ventilator-associated pneumonia onset were significantly elevated in nonsurvivors (P = .002 and P = .017, respectively). Both markers had different time courses in survivors and nonsurvivors (P < .001 and P = .006). Mean SOFA (average SOFA of 10 days after VAP onset) was superior in predicting 28-day survival as compared with SOFA and copeptin at ventilator-associated pneumonia onset (area under the curve, 0.90 vs 0.73 and 0.67, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The predictive value of serial-measured SOFA significantly exceeds those of single SOFA and copeptin measurements. Serial SOFA scores accurately predict outcome in ventilator-associated pneumonia.

Fertilizer 15N balance in a coffee cropping system: a case study in Brazil

Knowledge about the fate of fertilizer nitrogen in agricultural systems is essential for the improvement of management practices in order to maximize nitrogen (N) recovery by the crop and reduce N losses from the system to a minimum. This study involves fertilizer management practices using the 15N isotope label applied in a single rate to determine the fertilizer-N balance in a particular soil-coffee-atmosphere system and to deepen the understanding of N plant dynamics. Five replicates consisting of plots of about 120 plants each were randomly defined within a 0.2 ha coffee plantation planted in 2001, in Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. Nine plants of each plot were separated in sub-plots for the 15N balance studies and treated with N rates of 280 and 350 kg ha-1 during 2003/2004 and 2004/2005, respectively, both of them as ammonium sulfate enriched to a 15N abundance of 2.072 atom %. Plant shoots were considered as separate parts: the orthotropic central branch, productive branches, leaves of productive branches, vegetative branches, leaves of vegetative branches and fruit. Litter, consisting of dead leaves accumulated below the plant canopy, was measured by the difference between leaves at harvest and at the beginning of the following flowering. Roots and soil were sampled down to a depth of 1.0 at intervals of 0.2 m. Samples from the isotopic sub-plots were used to evaluate total N and 15N, and plants outside sub-plots were used to evaluate dry matter. Volatilization losses of NH3 were estimated using special collectors. Leaching of fertilizer-N was estimated from deep drainage water fluxes and 15N concentrations of the soil solution at 1 m soil depth. At the end of the 2-year evaluation, the recovery of 15N applied as ammonium sulfate was 19.1 % in aerial plant parts, 9.4 % in the roots, 23.8 % in the litter, 26.3 % in the fruit and 12.6 % remaining in the 0_1.0 m soil profile. Annual leaching and volatilization losses were very small (2.0 % and 0.9 %, respectively). After two years, only 6.2 % N were missing in the balance (100 %) which can be attributed to other non-estimated compartments and experimental errors. Results show that an enrichment of only 2 % atom 15N allows the study of the partition of fertilizer-N in a perennial crop such as coffee during a period of two years.

Sequential or concomitant chemotherapy in limited stage small-cell lung cancer.

PURPOSE: Chemotherapy (CT) combined with radiation therapy (RT) is the standard treatment for limited disease small-cell lung cancer (LDSCLC). Many questions including RT dose, fractionation, and sequence of RT/CT administration remain controversial. In this paper, we retrospectively assessed the outcome of patients with LDSCLC treated with radiation of at least 50 Gy.METHODS AND MATERIALS: From December 1997 to January 2006, 69 consecutive patients with LDSCLC were treated at our institutions. Treatment consisted of at least 4 cycles of CT, and 3D conformal thoracic RT. The median age was 61 years (range, 37-78 years). Sequential or concomitant CT/RT was given in 47 (68%) and 22 (32%) of the patients, respectively. The median RT dose was 60 Gy. Prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) was administered in 47 (68%) patients.RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 36 months (range, 6-107), 16 patients were alive without disease. The median overall survival time was 24 months, with a 3-year survival rate of 29%. The 3-year disease-free survival (DFS) and loco-regional control (LRC) rates were 23% and 60%, respectively. A better DFS was significantly associated with performance status (PS) 0 (p = 0.004), complete response to treatment (p = 0.03), and PCI group (p = 0.03). A trend towards improved overall survival (OS) was observed for patients who underwent PCI (p = 0.07). Patients treated with sequential CT/RT had a better outcome than those treated with concomitant treatment (3-year DFS rate 27% vs. 13%; p = 0.04). However, PCI was delivered more frequently for the sequential group. No significant dose-response relationship was found in terms of LRC. The multivariate analysis showed that complete response to treatment was the only significant factor for OS.CONCLUSION: Complete response to treatment was the most important factor for OS. A better DFS was significantly associated with the PCI group. We did not find a significant difference in outcome between patients receiving doses of 60 Gy or more and patients receiving 60 Gy or less.

Physical quality of an Oxisol cultivated with maize submited to cover crops in the pre-cropping period

The intensive use of land alters the distribution of the pore size which imparts consequences on the soil physical quality. The Least Limiting Water Range (LLWR) allows for the visualization of the effects of management systems upon either the improvement or the degradation of the soil physical quality. The objective of this study was to evaluate the physical quality of a Red Latosol (Oxisol) submited to cover crops in the period prior to the maize crop in a no-tillage and conventional tillage system, using porosity, soil bulk density and the LLWR as attributes. The treatments were: conventional tillage (CT) and a no-tillage system with the following cover crops: sunn hemp (Crotalaria juncea L.) (NS), pearl millet (Pennisetum americanum (L.) Leeke) (NP) and lablab (Dolichos lablab L.) (NL). The experimental design was randomized blocks in subdivided plots with six replications, with the plots being constituted by the treatments and the subplots by the layers analyzed. The no-tillage systems showed higher total porosity and soil organic matter at the 0-0.5 m layer for the CT. The CT did not differ from the NL or NS in relation to macroporosity. The NP showed the greater porosity, while CT and NS presented lower soil bulk density. No < 10 % airing porosity was found for the treatments evaluated, and value for water content where soil aeration is critical (θPA) was found above estimated water content at field capacity (θFC) for all densities. Critical soil bulk density was of 1.36 and 1.43 Mg m-3 for NP and CT, respectively. The LLWR in the no-tillage systems was limited in the upper part by the θFC, and in the bottom part, by the water content from which soil resistance to penetration is limiting (θPR). By means of LLWR it was observed that the soil presented good physical quality.

Physical properties of a humic cambisol under tillage and cropping systems after twelve years

Soil is the basis underlying the food production chain and it is fundamental to improve and conserve its productive capacity. Imbalanced exploitation can degrade agricultural areas physical, chemical and biologically. The objective of this study was to evaluate some soil physical properties and their relation with organic carbon contents of a Humic Dystrudept under conventional tillage (CT) and no-tillage (NT), for 12 years in rotation (r) and succession (s) cropping systems. The experiment was carried out in Lages, SC (latitude 27 º 49 ' S and longitude 50 º 20 ' W, 937 m asl), using crop sequences of bean-fallow-maize-fallow-soybean in conventional tillage rotation; maize-fallow in conventional tillage succession; bean-oat-maize-turnip-soybean-vetch in no-tillage rotation; and maize-vetch in no-tillage succession. The experimental design was completely randomized with four replications. The soil samples were collected in the layers 0-2.5, 2.5-5, 5-10, and 10-20 cm. The following properties were analyzed: soil density, porosity, aggregate stability, degree of flocculation, water retention, infiltration, mechanical strength, and total organic carbon. Soil aggregation in the surface layer (0-5 cm) was better in the no-tillage than the conventional system, related to higher microporosity, organic carbon contents and water retention capacity, indicating that a periodical tillage of this soil is unnecessary. Infiltration was highest in no-tillage with crop succession.

Auction theory, sequential local service privatization, and the effects of geographical scale economies on effective competition

A sequential weakly efficient two-auction game with entry costs, interdependence between objects, two potential bidders and IPV assumption is presented here in order to give some theoretical predictions on the effects of geographical scale economies on local service privatization performance. It is shown that the first object seller takes profit of this interdependence. The interdependence externality rises effective competition for the first object, expressed as the probability of having more than one final bidder. Besides, if there is more than one final bidder in the first auction, seller extracts the entire bidder¿s expected future surplus differential between having won the first auction and having lost. Consequences for second object seller are less clear, reflecting the contradictory nature of the two main effects of object interdependence. On the one hand, first auction winner becomes ¿stronger¿, so that expected payments rise in a competitive environment. On the other hand, first auction loser becomes relatively ¿weaker¿, hence (probably) reducing effective competition for the second object. Additionally, some contributions to static auction theory with entry cost and asymmetric bidders are presented in the appendix