Symbiotic approaches to work and technology

Symbiotic design methods aim to take into account technical, social and organizational criteria simultaneously. Over the years, many symbiotic methods have been developed and applied in various countries. Nevertheless, the diagnosis that only technical criteria receive attention in the design of production systems, is still made repeatedly. Examples of symbiotic approaches are presented at three different levels: technical systems, organizations, and the process. From these, discussion points are generated concerning the character of the approaches, the importance of economic motives, the impact of national environments, the necessity of a guided design process, the use of symbiotic methods, and the roles of participants in the design process.

Introduction: improving manufacturing performance through technology diffusion, implementation and management

The role of technology management in achieving improved manufacturing performance has been receiving increased attention as enterprises are becoming more exposed to competition from around the world. In the modern market for manufactured goods the demand is now for more product variety, better quality, shorter delivery and greater flexibility, while the financial and environmental cost of resources has become an urgent concern to manufacturing managers. This issue of the International Journal of Technology Management addresses the question of how the diffusion, implementation and management of technology can improve the performance of manufacturing industries. The authors come from a large number of different countries and their contributions cover a wide range of topics within this general theme. Some papers are conceptual, others report on research carried out in a range of different industries including steel production, iron founding, electronics, robotics, machinery, precision engineering, metal working and motor manufacture. In some cases they describe situations in specific countries. Several are based on presentations made at the UK Operations Management Association's Sixth International Conference held at Aston University at which the conference theme was 'Achieving Competitive Edge: Getting Ahead Through Technology and People'. The first two papers deal with questions of advanced manufacturing technology implementation and management. Firstly Beatty describes a three year longitudinal field study carried out in ten Canadian manufacturing companies using CADICAM and CIM systems. Her findings relate to speed of implementation, choice of system type, the role of individuals in implementation, organization and job design. This is followed by a paper by Bessant in which he argues that a more a strategic approach should be taken towards the management of technology in the 1990s and beyond. Also considered in this paper are the capabilities necessary in order to deploy advanced manufacturing technology as a strategic resource and the way such capabilities might be developed within the firm. These two papers, which deal largely with the implementation of hardware, are supplemented by Samson and Sohal's contribution in which they argue that a much wider perspective should be adopted based on a new approach to manufacturing strategy formulation. Technology transfer is the topic of the following two papers. Pohlen again takes the case of advanced manufacturing technology and reports on his research which considers the factors contributing to successful realisation of AMT transfer. The paper by Lee then provides a more detailed account of technology transfer in the foundry industry. Using a case study based on a firm which has implemented a number of transferred innovations a model is illustrated in which the 'performance gap' can be identified and closed. The diffusion of technology is addressed in the next two papers. In the first of these, by Lowe and Sim, the managerial technologies of 'Just in Time' and 'Manufacturing Resource Planning' (or MRP 11) are examined. A study is described from which a number of factors are found to influence the adoption process including, rate of diffusion and size. Dahlin then considers the case of a specific item of hardware technology, the industrial robot. Her paper reviews the history of robot diffusion since the early 1960s and then tries to predict how the industry will develop in the future. The following two papers deal with the future of manufacturing in a more general sense. The future implementation of advanced manufacturing technology is the subject explored by de Haan and Peters who describe the results of their Dutch Delphi forecasting study conducted among a panel of experts including scientists, consultants, users and suppliers of AMT. Busby and Fan then consider a type of organisational model, 'the extended manufacturing enterprise', which would represent a distinct alternative pure market-led and command structures by exploiting the shared knowledge of suppliers and customers. The three country-based papers consider some strategic issues relating manufacturing technology. In a paper based on investigations conducted in China He, Liff and Steward report their findings from strategy analyses carried out in the steel and watch industries with a view to assessing technology needs and organizational change requirements. This is followed by Tang and Nam's paper which examines the case of machinery industry in Korea and its emerging importance as a key sector in the Korean economy. In his paper which focuses on Venezuela, Ernst then considers the particular problem of how this country can address the problem of falling oil revenues. He sees manufacturing as being an important contributor to Venezuela's future economy and proposes a means whereby government and private enterprise can co-operate in development of the manufacturing sector. The last six papers all deal with specific topics relating to the management manufacturing. Firstly Youssef looks at the question of manufacturing flexibility, introducing and testing a conceptual model that relates computer based technologies flexibility. Dangerfield's paper which follows is based on research conducted in the steel industry. He considers the question of scale and proposes a modelling approach determining the plant configuration necessary to meet market demand. Engstrom presents the results of a detailed investigation into the need for reorganising material flow where group assembly of products has been adopted. Sherwood, Guerrier and Dale then report the findings of a study into the effectiveness of Quality Circle implementation. Stillwagon and Burns, consider how manufacturing competitiveness can be improved individual firms by describing how the application of 'human performance engineering' can be used to motivate individual performance as well as to integrate organizational goals. Finally Sohal, Lewis and Samson describe, using a case study example, how just-in-time control can be applied within the context of computer numerically controlled flexible machining lines. The papers in this issue of the International Journal of Technology Management cover a wide range of topics relating to the general question of improving manufacturing performance through the dissemination, implementation and management of technology. Although they differ markedly in content and approach, they have the collective aim addressing the concepts, principles and practices which provide a better understanding the technology of manufacturing and assist in achieving and maintaining a competitive edge.

Adult cortical plasticity depends on an early postnatal critical period

Development of the cerebral cortex is influenced by sensory experience during distinct phases of postnatal development known as critical periods. Disruption of experience during a critical period produces neurons that lack specificity for particular stimulus features, such as location in the somatosensory system. Synaptic plasticity is the agent by which sensory experience affects cortical development. Here, we describe, in mice, a developmental critical period that affects plasticity itself. Transient neonatal disruption of signaling via the C-terminal domain of "disrupted in schizophrenia 1" (DISC1)-a molecule implicated in psychiatric disorders-resulted in a lack of long-term potentiation (LTP) (persistent strengthening of synapses) and experience-dependent potentiation in adulthood. Long-term depression (LTD) (selective weakening of specific sets of synapses) and reversal of LTD were present, although impaired, in adolescence and absent in adulthood. These changes may form the basis for the cognitive deficits associated with mutations in DISC1 and the delayed onset of a range of psychiatric symptoms in late adolescence.

Bayesian Inference in Large-scale Problems

Many modern applications fall into the category of "large-scale" statistical problems, in which both the number of observations n and the number of features or parameters p may be large. Many existing methods focus on point estimation, despite the continued relevance of uncertainty quantification in the sciences, where the number of parameters to estimate often exceeds the sample size, despite huge increases in the value of n typically seen in many fields. Thus, the tendency in some areas of industry to dispense with traditional statistical analysis on the basis that "n=all" is of little relevance outside of certain narrow applications. The main result of the Big Data revolution in most fields has instead been to make computation much harder without reducing the importance of uncertainty quantification. Bayesian methods excel at uncertainty quantification, but often scale poorly relative to alternatives. This conflict between the statistical advantages of Bayesian procedures and their substantial computational disadvantages is perhaps the greatest challenge facing modern Bayesian statistics, and is the primary motivation for the work presented here.

Two general strategies for scaling Bayesian inference are considered. The first is the development of methods that lend themselves to faster computation, and the second is design and characterization of computational algorithms that scale better in n or p. In the first instance, the focus is on joint inference outside of the standard problem of multivariate continuous data that has been a major focus of previous theoretical work in this area. In the second area, we pursue strategies for improving the speed of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, and characterizing their performance in large-scale settings. Throughout, the focus is on rigorous theoretical evaluation combined with empirical demonstrations of performance and concordance with the theory.

One topic we consider is modeling the joint distribution of multivariate categorical data, often summarized in a contingency table. Contingency table analysis routinely relies on log-linear models, with latent structure analysis providing a common alternative. Latent structure models lead to a reduced rank tensor factorization of the probability mass function for multivariate categorical data, while log-linear models achieve dimensionality reduction through sparsity. Little is known about the relationship between these notions of dimensionality reduction in the two paradigms. In Chapter 2, we derive several results relating the support of a log-linear model to nonnegative ranks of the associated probability tensor. Motivated by these findings, we propose a new collapsed Tucker class of tensor decompositions, which bridge existing PARAFAC and Tucker decompositions, providing a more flexible framework for parsimoniously characterizing multivariate categorical data. Taking a Bayesian approach to inference, we illustrate empirical advantages of the new decompositions.

Latent class models for the joint distribution of multivariate categorical, such as the PARAFAC decomposition, data play an important role in the analysis of population structure. In this context, the number of latent classes is interpreted as the number of genetically distinct subpopulations of an organism, an important factor in the analysis of evolutionary processes and conservation status. Existing methods focus on point estimates of the number of subpopulations, and lack robust uncertainty quantification. Moreover, whether the number of latent classes in these models is even an identified parameter is an open question. In Chapter 3, we show that when the model is properly specified, the correct number of subpopulations can be recovered almost surely. We then propose an alternative method for estimating the number of latent subpopulations that provides good quantification of uncertainty, and provide a simple procedure for verifying that the proposed method is consistent for the number of subpopulations. The performance of the model in estimating the number of subpopulations and other common population structure inference problems is assessed in simulations and a real data application.

In contingency table analysis, sparse data is frequently encountered for even modest numbers of variables, resulting in non-existence of maximum likelihood estimates. A common solution is to obtain regularized estimates of the parameters of a log-linear model. Bayesian methods provide a coherent approach to regularization, but are often computationally intensive. Conjugate priors ease computational demands, but the conjugate Diaconis--Ylvisaker priors for the parameters of log-linear models do not give rise to closed form credible regions, complicating posterior inference. In Chapter 4 we derive the optimal Gaussian approximation to the posterior for log-linear models with Diaconis--Ylvisaker priors, and provide convergence rate and finite-sample bounds for the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the exact posterior and the optimal Gaussian approximation. We demonstrate empirically in simulations and a real data application that the approximation is highly accurate, even in relatively small samples. The proposed approximation provides a computationally scalable and principled approach to regularized estimation and approximate Bayesian inference for log-linear models.

Another challenging and somewhat non-standard joint modeling problem is inference on tail dependence in stochastic processes. In applications where extreme dependence is of interest, data are almost always time-indexed. Existing methods for inference and modeling in this setting often cluster extreme events or choose window sizes with the goal of preserving temporal information. In Chapter 5, we propose an alternative paradigm for inference on tail dependence in stochastic processes with arbitrary temporal dependence structure in the extremes, based on the idea that the information on strength of tail dependence and the temporal structure in this dependence are both encoded in waiting times between exceedances of high thresholds. We construct a class of time-indexed stochastic processes with tail dependence obtained by endowing the support points in de Haan's spectral representation of max-stable processes with velocities and lifetimes. We extend Smith's model to these max-stable velocity processes and obtain the distribution of waiting times between extreme events at multiple locations. Motivated by this result, a new definition of tail dependence is proposed that is a function of the distribution of waiting times between threshold exceedances, and an inferential framework is constructed for estimating the strength of extremal dependence and quantifying uncertainty in this paradigm. The method is applied to climatological, financial, and electrophysiology data.

The remainder of this thesis focuses on posterior computation by Markov chain Monte Carlo. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is the dominant paradigm for posterior computation in Bayesian analysis. It has long been common to control computation time by making approximations to the Markov transition kernel. Comparatively little attention has been paid to convergence and estimation error in these approximating Markov Chains. In Chapter 6, we propose a framework for assessing when to use approximations in MCMC algorithms, and how much error in the transition kernel should be tolerated to obtain optimal estimation performance with respect to a specified loss function and computational budget. The results require only ergodicity of the exact kernel and control of the kernel approximation accuracy. The theoretical framework is applied to approximations based on random subsets of data, low-rank approximations of Gaussian processes, and a novel approximating Markov chain for discrete mixture models.

Data augmentation Gibbs samplers are arguably the most popular class of algorithm for approximately sampling from the posterior distribution for the parameters of generalized linear models. The truncated Normal and Polya-Gamma data augmentation samplers are standard examples for probit and logit links, respectively. Motivated by an important problem in quantitative advertising, in Chapter 7 we consider the application of these algorithms to modeling rare events. We show that when the sample size is large but the observed number of successes is small, these data augmentation samplers mix very slowly, with a spectral gap that converges to zero at a rate at least proportional to the reciprocal of the square root of the sample size up to a log factor. In simulation studies, moderate sample sizes result in high autocorrelations and small effective sample sizes. Similar empirical results are observed for related data augmentation samplers for multinomial logit and probit models. When applied to a real quantitative advertising dataset, the data augmentation samplers mix very poorly. Conversely, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and a type of independence chain Metropolis algorithm show good mixing on the same dataset.

'That Puissant City': John Milton's Roman Sojourns 1638-1639

John Milton’s sojourns in Rome (1638-9) are attested by his comments in Defensio Secunda, by the minutes of the English College, by Latin encomia which he received from Roman academicians, and, not least, by his Latin letter to Lucas Holstenius (19/29 March 1639), and several Latin poems which he composed in the course of his residency in the capital city: Ad Salsillum, and three Latin epigrams extolling the praises of the virtuosa soprano, Leonora Baroni. Read together, these texts serve to reveal much about Milton’s participation in, and reaction to, the ‘Puissant City’, (History of Britain, Bk 2).

The present monograph presents fresh evidence of Milton's integration into the academic and cultural life of seventeenth-century Rome. It argues that his links with two Roman academies: the Accademia dei Fantastici and Accademia degli Umoristi constitute a sustained participation in an academic community paralleling that of his independently attested performance in Florentine academies (on which I have published extensively). It also investigates his links with Alessandro Cherubini, David Codner, Giovanni Batista Doni, and the Baroni circle hymned in three published anthologies.

Chapter 1: Milton and the Accademia dei Fantastici investigates the cultural climate surrounding Milton's Ad Salsillum by examining two of that academy's publications: the Poesie dei Signori Accademici Fantastici di Roma (Rome, 1637) and the Academia Tenuta da Fantastici a. 12 di Maggio 1655 (Rome, 1655), the latter celebrating the creation of Fabio Chigi as Pope Alexander VII on 5 April 1655. Read in a new light, Milton’s self-fashioning, it is argued, takes its place not only alongside Salzilli’s encomium in Milton's honour, and his Italian sonnets in the 1637 Poesie, but also in relation to other poems in that collection, and the academy's essentially Catholic eulogistic trend. The chapter also provides fresh evidence of Salzilli’s survival of the illness described in Milton’s poem by his epistolary correspondence with Tomaso Stigliani.

Chapter 2: Milton and the Vatican argues for links between Milton’s Latin letter to Holstenius and a range of Holstenius’ published works: his edition of the axioms of the later Pythagoreans gifted by him to Milton, and his published neo-Platonic works. This is achieved by mutual appropriation of Similitudes in a series of Miltonic similes, the anabasis/katabasis motifs in a reworking of the Platonic theory of the transmigration of souls, and allusion to etymological details highlighted in Holstenius’ published editions. The chapter also reveals Milton’s alertness to typographical procedures and, by association, to Holstenius’ recent role (1638) as Director of the press of the Biblioteca Vaticana.

Chapter 3: Milton and the Accademia degli Umoristi argues for Milton’s likely participation in this Roman academy, as suggested by his links with its members. His three Latin epigrams in praise of Leonora Baroni, the only female member of the Umoristi, have hitherto been studied in relation to the 1639 Applausi in her honour. In a new reading, Milton, it is suggested, invokes and interrogates Catholic doctrine before a Catholic audience only to view the whole through the lens of a neo-Platonic Hermeticism (by echoing the phraseology of the sixteenth-century Franciscan Hannibal Rosselli) that refreshingly transcends religious difference. Crucially, the hitherto neglected L’Idea della Veglia (Rome, 1640) includes further encomiastic verse, sonnets to, and by Leonora, and details of the conversazioni hosted by her family at the precise time of Milton’s Roman sojourns. Milton may well have been a participant. The chapter concludes in an assessment of his links with the youthful prodigy Alessandro Cherubini, and of his audience with Francesco Barberini.

Chapter 4: Milton at a Roman Opera analyses the potential impact of ‘Chi Soffre, Speri’, which he attended on 18/28 February 1639, mounted by Francesco Barberini to inaugurate the recently completed theatre of the Palazzo Barberini. A detailed analysis of the opera's libretto, music, and theatricality casts a backward glance to Milton's Comus, and a forward glance to Paradise Lost. It also assesses Milton’s musical interests at this time, as attested by his links with Doni, and his purchase of works by Monteverdi and others.

Chapter 5: Milton’s English Connections in Rome develops the work of Miller and Chaney by investigating Milton’s co-diners at the English College in Rome on 30 October 1638, and by analysing his links between David Codner (alias Matteo Selvaggio), and the family of Jane Savage, Marchioness of Winchester, lamented by Milton in 1631. It also assesses his potential relations with the Englishman Thomas Gawen, who ‘accidentally sometimes fell into the company of John Milton’ (Antony Wood).

Surprised by Syntax: Reading the Latinity of Paradise Lost

Stanley Fish in his monumental study argued that the reader of Paradise Lost is “surprised by sin” as he or she in the course of engaging with the text falls, like Adam and Eve, into sin and error and is brought up short. Through a “programme of reader harassment” the experience of the fall is re-enacted in the process of reading, wherein lies the poem’s meaning. And reader response criticism was born. But if for Fish the twentieth-century reader is “surprised by sin,” might not the twenty-first century reader, an all too frequently Latinless reader, be surprised by syntax, a syntax which despite of (or maybe because of) its inherent Latinity and associated linguistic alterity functions as a seductively attractive other? The reader, like Eve, is indeed surprised: enchanted, bemused, seduced by the abundant classicism, by the formal Latinate rhetoric achieved by a Miltonic unison of “Voice and Verse” and also by the language of a Satanic tempter who is—in the pejorative sense of the Latin adjective bilinguis—“double-tongued, deceitful, treacherous.” It is hardly an accident that this adjective (with which Milton qualifies hellish betrayal in his Latin gunpowder epic) was typically applied to the forked tongue of a serpent. This study argues that key to the success of the double-tongued Miltonic serpens bilinguis, is his use and abuse of Latinate language and rhetoric. It posits the possible case that this is mirrored in the linguistic methodology of the poeta bilinguis, the geminus Miltonus? For if, like Eve, the twenty-first century reader of Paradise Lost is surprised by syntax, by the Miltonic use and the Satanic abuse of a Latinate voice, might not he or she also be surprised by the text’s bilingual speaking voice?

Study of white spot disease in four native species in Persian Gulf by histopathology and PCR methods

After serious disease outbreak, caused by new virus (WSV), has been occurring among cultured penaeid shrimps in Asian countries like China since 1993 and then in Latin American countries, during June till July 2002 a rapid and high mortality in cultured Penaeus indicus in Abadan region located in south of Iran with typical signs and symptoms of White Spot Syndrome Virus was confirmed by different studies of Histopathology, PCR, TEM, Virology. This study was conducted for the purpose of determination of prevalence(rate of infection)/ROI and grading severity (SOI) of WSD to five species: 150 samples of captured shrimps and 90 samples of cultured ones; Penaeus indicus, P. semisulcatus, P. merguiensis, Parapenaopsis styliferus, and Metapenaeus affinis in 2005. 136 of 240 samples have shown clinical and macroscopical signs & symptoms including; white spots on carapase (0.5-2 mm), easily removing of cuticule, fragility of hepatopancreas and red color of motility limbs. Histopathological changes like specific intranuclear inclusion bodies (cowdry-type A) were observed in all target tissues (gill, epidermis, haemolymph and midgut) but not in hepatopancreas, among shrimps collected from various farms in the south and captured ones from Persian Gulf, even ones without clinical signs. ROI among species estimated, using the NATIVIDAD & LIGHTNER formula(1992b) and SOI were graded, using a generalized scheme for assigning a numerical qualitative value to severity grade of infection which was provided by LIGHTNER(1996), in consideration to histopathology and counting specific inclusion bodies in different stages(were modified by B. Gholamhoseini). Samples with clinical signs, showed grades more than 2. Most of the P. semisulcatus and M. affinis samples showed grade of 3, in the other hand in most of P. styliferus samples grade of 4 were observed, which can suggest different sensitivity of different species. All samples were tested by Nested PCR method with IQTm 2000 WSSV kit and 183 of 240 samples were positive and 3 1evel of infection which was shown in this PCR confirmed our SOI grades, but they were more specified.

Caracterización sociodemográfica de las enfermedades huérfanas en Colombia

Las enfermedades huérfanas en Colombia, se definen como aquellas crónicamente debilitantes, que amenazan la vida, de baja prevalencia (menor 1/5000) y alta complejidad. Se estima que a nivel mundial existen entre 6000 a 8000 enfermedades raras diferentes(1). Varios países a nivel mundial individual o colectivamente, en los últimos años han creado políticas e incentivos para la investigación y protección de los pacientes con enfermedades raras. Sin embargo, a pesar del creciente número de publicaciones; la información sobre su etiología, fisiología, historia natural y datos epidemiológicos persiste escasa o ausente. Los registros de pacientes, son una valiosa herramienta para la caracterización de las enfermedades, su manejo y desenlaces con o sin tratamiento. Permiten mejorar políticas de salud pública y cuidado del paciente, contribuyendo a mejorar desenlaces sociales, económicos y de calidad de vida. En Colombia, bajo el decreto 1954 de 2012 y las resoluciones 3681 de 2013 y 0430 de 2013 se creó el fundamento legal para la creación de un registro nacional de enfermedades huérfanas. El presente estudio busca determinar la caracterización socio-demográfica y la prevalencia de las enfermedades huérfanas en Colombia en el periodo 2013. Métodos: Se realizó un estudio observacional de corte transversal de fuente secundaria sobre pacientes con enfermedades huérfanas en el territorio nacional; basándose en el registro nacional de enfermedades huérfanas obtenido por el Ministerio de Salud y Protección Social en el periodo 2013 bajo la normativa del decreto 1954 de 2012 y las resoluciones 3681 de 2013 y 0430 de 2013. Las bases de datos obtenidas fueron re-categorizadas en Excel versión 15.17 para la extracción de datos y su análisis estadístico posterior, fue realizado en el paquete estadístico para las ciencias sociales (SPSS v.20, Chicago, IL). Resultados: Se encontraron un total de 13173 pacientes con enfermedades huérfanas para el 2013. De estos, el 53.96% (7132) eran de género femenino y el 46.03% (6083) masculino; la mediana de la edad fue de 28 años con un rango inter-cuartil de 39 años, el 9% de los pacientes presentaron discapacidad. El registro contenía un total de 653 enfermedades huérfanas; el 34% del total de las enfermedades listadas en nuestro país (2). Las patologías más frecuentes fueron el Déficit Congénito del Factor VIII, Miastenia Grave, Enfermedad de Von Willebrand, Estatura Baja por Anomalía de Hormona de Crecimiento y Displasia Broncopulmonar. Discusión: Se estimó que aproximadamente 3.3 millones de colombianos debían tener una enfermedad huérfana para el 2013. El registro nacional logró recolectar datos de 13173 (0.4%). Este bajo número de pacientes, marca un importante sub-registro que se debe al uso de los códigos CIE-10, desconocimiento del personal de salud frente a las enfermedades huérfanas y clasificación errónea de los pacientes. Se encontraron un total de 653 enfermedades, un 34% de las enfermedades reportadas en el listado nacional de enfermedades huérfanas (2) y un 7% del total de enfermedades reportadas en ORPHANET para el periodo 2013 (3). Conclusiones: La recolección de datos y la sensibilización sobre las enfermedades huérfanas al personal de salud, es una estrategia de vital importancia para el diagnóstico temprano, medidas específicas de control e intervenciones de los pacientes. El identificar apropiadamente a los pacientes con este tipo de patologías, permite su ingreso en el registro y por ende mejora el sub-registro de datos. Sin embargo, cabe aclarar que el panorama ideal sería, el uso de un sistema de recolección diferente al CIE-10 y que abarque en mayor medida la totalidad de las enfermedades huérfanas.