The impact of social security reform on occupational and retirement behavior : a quantitative assessment for Brazil

Population ageing is a problem that countries will have to cope with within a few years. How would changes in the social security system affect individual behaviour? We develop a multi-sectoral life-cycle model with both retirement and occupational choices to evaluate what are the macroeconomic impacts of social security reforms. We calibrate the model to match 2011 Brazilian economy and perform a counterfactual exercise of the long-run impacts of a recently adopted reform. In 2013, the Brazilian government approximated the two segregated social security schemes, imposing a ceiling on public pensions. In the benchmark equilibrium, our modelling economy is able to reproduce the early retirement claiming, the agents' stationary distribution among sectors, as well as the social security deficit and the public job application decision. In the counterfactual exercise, we find a significant reduction of 55\% in the social security deficit, an increase of 1.94\% in capital-to-output ratio, with both output and capital growing, a delay in retirement claims of public workers and a modification in the structure of agents applying to the public sector job.

Transmission network expansion planning with security constraints

A mathematical model and a methodology to solve the transmission network expansion planning problem with security constraints are presented. The methodology allows one to find an optimal and reliable transmission network expansion plan using a DC model to represent the electrical network. The security (n-1) criterion is used. The model presented is solved using a genetic algorithm designed to solve the reliable expansion planning in an efficient way. The results obtained for several known systems from literature show the excellent performance of the proposed methodology. A comparative analysis of the results obtained with the proposed methodology is also presented.

Transmission network expansion planning in full open market considering security constraints

This paper presents a mathematical model and a methodology to solve the transmission network expansion planning problem with security constraints in full competitive market, assuming that all generation programming plans present in the system operation are known. The methodology let us find an optimal transmission network expansion plan that allows the power system to operate adequately in each one of the generation programming plans specified in the full competitive market case, including a single contingency situation with generation rescheduling using the security (n-1) criterion. In this context, the centralized expansion planning with security constraints and the expansion planning in full competitive market are subsets of the proposal presented in this paper. The model provides a solution using a genetic algorithm designed to efficiently solve the reliable expansion planning in full competitive market. The results obtained for several known systems from the literature show the excellent performance of the proposed methodology.

Inclusion of the European Nordic model in the debate concerning social protection reform: the long-term development of Nordic welfare systems (1890-2005) and their transferability to Latin America in the twenty-first century

Includes bibliography

Statistical model applied to NetFlow for network intrusion detection

The computers and network services became presence guaranteed in several places. These characteristics resulted in the growth of illicit events and therefore the computers and networks security has become an essential point in any computing environment. Many methodologies were created to identify these events; however, with increasing of users and services on the Internet, many difficulties are found in trying to monitor a large network environment. This paper proposes a methodology for events detection in large-scale networks. The proposal approaches the anomaly detection using the NetFlow protocol, statistical methods and monitoring the environment in a best time for the application. © 2010 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Flexible labour markets, workers' protection and the security of the wings": a Danish flexicurity solution to the unemployment and social problems in globalized economies"

Includes bibliography

Market-driven security-constrained transmission network expansion planning

This paper presents a Bi-level Programming (BP) approach to solve the Transmission Network Expansion Planning (TNEP) problem. The proposed model is envisaged under a market environment and considers security constraints. The upper-level of the BP problem corresponds to the transmission planner which procures the minimization of the total investment and load shedding cost. This upper-level problem is constrained by a single lower-level optimization problem which models a market clearing mechanism that includes security constraints. Results on the Garver's 6-bus and IEEE 24-bus RTS test systems are presented and discussed. Finally, some conclusions are drawn. © 2011 IEEE.

A Multi-Stage Stochastic Non-Linear Model for Reactive Power Planning Under Contingencies

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Multitemporal analysis of satellite imagery: implementation of a land evolution model in ALCS (ATSR LAND CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM)

In this report it was designed an innovative satellite-based monitoring approach applied on the Iraqi Marshlands to survey the extent and distribution of marshland re-flooding and assess the development of wetland vegetation cover. The study, conducted in collaboration with MEEO Srl , makes use of images collected from the sensor (A)ATSR onboard ESA ENVISAT Satellite to collect data at multi-temporal scales and an analysis was adopted to observe the evolution of marshland re-flooding. The methodology uses a multi-temporal pixel-based approach based on classification maps produced by the classification tool SOIL MAPPER ®. The catalogue of the classification maps is available as web service through the Service Support Environment Portal (SSE, supported by ESA). The inundation of the Iraqi marshlands, which has been continuous since April 2003, is characterized by a high degree of variability, ad-hoc interventions and uncertainty. Given the security constraints and vastness of the Iraqi marshlands, as well as cost-effectiveness considerations, satellite remote sensing was the only viable tool to observe the changes taking place on a continuous basis. The proposed system (ALCS – AATSR LAND CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM) avoids the direct use of the (A)ATSR images and foresees the application of LULCC evolution models directly to „stock‟ of classified maps. This approach is made possible by the availability of a 13 year classified image database, conceived and implemented in the CARD project (http://earth.esa.int/rtd/Projects/#CARD).The approach here presented evolves toward an innovative, efficient and fast method to exploit the potentiality of multi-temporal LULCC analysis of (A)ATSR images. The two main objectives of this work are both linked to a sort of assessment: the first is to assessing the ability of modeling with the web-application ALCS using image-based AATSR classified with SOIL MAPPER ® and the second is to evaluate the magnitude, the character and the extension of wetland rehabilitation.

'Security Here is Not Safe': Violence, Punishment, & Space in the Contemporary U.S. Penitentiary

The US penitentiary at Lewisburg, Pennsylvania, was retrofitted in 2008 to offer the country’s first federal Special Management Unit (SMU) program of its kind. This model SMU is designed for federal inmates from around the country identified as the most intractably troublesome, and features double-celling of inmates in tiny spaces, in 23-hour or 24-hour a day lockdown, requiring them to pass through a two-year program of readjustment. These spatial tactics, and the philosophy of punishment underlying them, contrast with the modern reform ideals upon which the prison was designed and built in 1932. The SMU represents the latest punitive phase in American penology, one that neither simply eliminates men as in the premodern spectacle, nor creates the docile, rehabilitated bodies of the modern panopticon; rather, it is a late-modern structure that produces only fear, terror, violence, and death. This SMU represents the latest of the late-modern prisons, similar to other supermax facilities in the US but offering its own unique system of punishment as well. While the prison exists within the system of American law and jurisprudence, it also manifests features of Agamben’s lawless, camp-like space that emerges during a state of exception, exempt from outside scrutiny with inmate treatment typically beyond the scope of the law.

"Security Here is Not Safe": Violence, Punishment, and Space in the Contemporary US Penitentiary

The US penitentiary at Lewisburg, Pennsylvania, was retrofitted in 2008 to offer the country's first federal Special Management Unit (SMU) program of its kind. This model SMU is designed for federal inmates from around the country identified as the most intractably troublesome, and features double-celling of inmates in tiny spaces, in 23-hour or 24-hour a day lockdown, requiring them to pass through a two-year program of readjustment. These spatial tactics, and the philosophy of punishment underlying them, contrast with the modern reform ideals upon which the prison was designed and built in 1932. The SMU represents the latest punitive phase in American penology, one that neither simply eliminates men as in the premodern spectacle, nor creates the docile, rehabilitated bodies of the modern panopticon; rather, it is a late-modern structure that produces only fear, terror, violence, and death. This SMU represents the latest of the late-modern prisons, similar to other supermax facilities in the US but offering its own unique system of punishment as well. While the prison exists within the system of American law and jurisprudence, it also manifests features of Agamben's lawless, camp-like space that emerges during a state of exception, exempt from outside scrutiny with inmate treatment typically beyond the scope of the law

Challenges of the Cooperative Movement In Addressing Issues of Human Security In the Context of a Neoliberal World: the Case of Argentina

The response of some Argentine workers to the 2001 crisis of neoliberalism gave rise to a movement of worker-recovered enterprises (empresas recuperadas por sus trabajadores or ERTs). The ERTs have emerged as former employees took over the control of generally fraudulently bankrupt factories and enterprises. The analysis of the ERT movement within the neoliberal global capitalist order will draw from William Robinson’s (2004) neo-Gramscian concept of hegemony. The theoretical framework of neo-Gramscian hegemony will be used in exposing the contradictions of capitalism on the global, national, organizational and individual scales and the effects they have on the ERT movement. The ERT movement has demonstrated strong level of resilience, despite the numerous economic, social, political and cultural challenges and limitations it faces as a consequence of the implementation of neoliberalism globally. ERTs have shown that through non-violent protests, democratic principles of management and social inclusion, it is possible to start constructing an alternative social order that is based on the cooperative principles of “honesty, openness, social responsibility and caring for others” (ICA 2007) as opposed to secrecy, exclusiveness, individualism and self-interestedness. In order to meet this “utopian” vision, it is essential to push the limits of the possible within the current social order and broaden the alliance to include the organized members of the working class, such as the members of trade unions, and the unorganized, such as the unemployed and underemployed. Though marginal in number and size, the members of ERTs have given rise to a model that is worth exploring in other countries and regions burdened by the contradictory workings of capitalism. Today, ERTs serve as living proofs that workers too are capable of successfully running businesses, not capitalists alone.

DEVELOPMENT OF AN OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR BIOFUEL FACILITY SIZE AND LOCATION AND A SIMULATION MODEL FOR DESIGN OF A BIOFUEL SUPPLY CHAIN

A range of societal issues have been caused by fossil fuel consumption in the transportation sector in the United States (U.S.), including health related air pollution, climate change, the dependence on imported oil, and other oil related national security concerns. Biofuels production from various lignocellulosic biomass types such as wood, forest residues, and agriculture residues have the potential to replace a substantial portion of the total fossil fuel consumption. This research focuses on locating biofuel facilities and designing the biofuel supply chain to minimize the overall cost. For this purpose an integrated methodology was proposed by combining the GIS technology with simulation and optimization modeling methods. The GIS based methodology was used as a precursor for selecting biofuel facility locations by employing a series of decision factors. The resulted candidate sites for biofuel production served as inputs for simulation and optimization modeling. As a precursor to simulation or optimization modeling, the GIS-based methodology was used to preselect potential biofuel facility locations for biofuel production from forest biomass. Candidate locations were selected based on a set of evaluation criteria, including: county boundaries, a railroad transportation network, a state/federal road transportation network, water body (rivers, lakes, etc.) dispersion, city and village dispersion, a population census, biomass production, and no co-location with co-fired power plants. The simulation and optimization models were built around key supply activities including biomass harvesting/forwarding, transportation and storage. The built onsite storage served for spring breakup period where road restrictions were in place and truck transportation on certain roads was limited. Both models were evaluated using multiple performance indicators, including cost (consisting of the delivered feedstock cost, and inventory holding cost), energy consumption, and GHG emissions. The impact of energy consumption and GHG emissions were expressed in monetary terms to keep consistent with cost. Compared with the optimization model, the simulation model represents a more dynamic look at a 20-year operation by considering the impacts associated with building inventory at the biorefinery to address the limited availability of biomass feedstock during the spring breakup period. The number of trucks required per day was estimated and the inventory level all year around was tracked. Through the exchange of information across different procedures (harvesting, transportation, and biomass feedstock processing procedures), a smooth flow of biomass from harvesting areas to a biofuel facility was implemented. The optimization model was developed to address issues related to locating multiple biofuel facilities simultaneously. The size of the potential biofuel facility is set up with an upper bound of 50 MGY and a lower bound of 30 MGY. The optimization model is a static, Mathematical Programming Language (MPL)-based application which allows for sensitivity analysis by changing inputs to evaluate different scenarios. It was found that annual biofuel demand and biomass availability impacts the optimal results of biofuel facility locations and sizes.

Different levels of policy change: A comparison between the public discussion on social security in Sweden and in Finland

The deep economic recession that hit Sweden and Finland at the beginning of the 90s, and the fall in public revenues and rapidly growing public debts that followed on it, triggered a development of cutbacks and restructuring measures which has resulted in a scientific debate over what this has meant for these countries’ systems of social policy, traditionally resting on the Nordic welfare state paradigm. In this connection, questions of to what extent changes made can be ascribed mainly to the economic constraints posed by the recession at all, or rather, to other more long-term societal trends or phenomena, including globalisation, European integration and/or ideational or ideological shifts among influential (elite) groups, have often been touched upon. Applying an ideas-centred approach, this paper attempts to contribute to the knowledge on the reasoning of influential elite societal groups in social policy issues before, during and after the 90’s recession, by empirically analysing their statements on social security made in the press. A distinction is made between three different levels of proposed policy changes, reaching from minor alterations of single programs to changes of the policy paradigm. Results show that the 1990s did not only mean the emergence of suggestions for minor cutbacks in and alterations of prevailing programmes. The share of suggestions implying de facto a (further) departure from the basic features of the social security system also showed that the model was under continuous pressure throughout the 90s. However, many of the changes suggested were not justified by any clear references to a policy paradigm in either country (or not justified at all). Instead, references to “purely” structural justifications did become more common over time. In this respect, as regards social security, our results cannot confirm the fairly popular notion among many researchers of a clearly ideological attack on the welfare state. However, it remains uncertain whether and to what extent the increased proportion of references to “structural realities” in the 90s should be interpreted as an indication of a change in the idea of what the welfare state is and what the goals behind it are. Results further show that the patterns of the discussion in the two countries studied bore a remarkable resemblance at a general level, whereas there are indications of differences in the driving forces behind suggestions for similar reforms in these two countries.

Development of a conceptual model for mass gatherings

In making the arrangements for the visit of Pope John Paul II to San Antonio, Texas, in September, 1987, it was discovered that no comprehensive documents or guidelines are available in the public sector for planning such an event. It was not clear which, if any, laws applied. The literature describes rock concerts, papal masses, and civil disorders. These events are held in stadia, and in the open. There was little agreement on what services, if any, were needed to protect the public's health and the environment; or if needed, how services should be provided, or by whom.^ A literature review and bibliography are given to provide greater understanding of the variety of mass gatherings and the many factors that impinge on temporary groups while away from their homes. Descriptions of past mass gatherings in terms of personnel ratios are provided. This study develops a conceptual model which delineates some of the known parameters necessary for successfully conducting a mass gathering. A study of one such site is given.^ Provisions for public wellness and freedom from disease at a mass gathering include adequate water (fluids), food, sanitary facilities, security, transportation, and medical services. The determination of adequacy of these provisions is discussed. Methods of determining the use of provided facilities are given. ^