Herpetofauna do Planalto da Ibiapaba, Ceará: composição, aspectos reprodutivos, distribuição espaço-temporal e conservação

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Balanço de energia de fluxo de CO2: cerrado da floresta estadual de Assis

Based on climatological data and energy flow, this paper analyzes the behavior observed in microclimatic an important remnant of cerrado in the São Paulo State. The seasonal climate is well marked, in the study area, with two climatic periods (one dry and one wet). The vegetation presents physiology as a function of water availability and the local thermal conditions and can be seen marked changes in the landscape due to the more or less presence of solar radiation. It’s important to understand the ecosystems behave in the context of global change. It has gained the attention of many researchers in the world.

Mast fruiting of large ectomycorrhizal African rain forest trees: importance of dry season intensity, and the resource limitation hypothesis

Mast fruiting is a distinctive reproductive trait in trees. This rain forest study, at a nutrient-poor site with a seasonal climate in tropical Africa, provides new insights into the causes of this mode of phenological patterning. •  At Korup, Cameroon, 150 trees of the large, ectomycorrhizal caesalp, Microberlinia bisulcata, were recorded almost monthly for leafing, flowering and fruiting during 1995–2000. The series was extended to 1988–2004 with less detailed data. Individual transitions in phenology were analysed. •  Masting occurred when the dry season before fruiting was drier, and the one before that was wetter, than average. Intervals between events were usually 2 or 3 yr. Masting was associated with early leaf exchange, followed by mass flowering, and was highly synchronous in the population. Trees at higher elevation showed more fruiting. Output declined between 1995 and 2000. •  Mast fruiting in M. bisulcata appears to be driven by climate variation and is regulated by internal tree processes. The resource-limitation hypothesis was supported. An ‘alternative bearing’ system seems to underlie masting. That ectomycorrhizal habit facilitates masting in trees is strongly implied.

Use of hydroclimatic forecasts for improved water management in central Texas

Accurate seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts based on climate information are critical for optimal management and operation of water resources systems. Considering most water supply systems are multipurpose, operating these systems to meet increasing demand under the growing stresses of climate variability and climate change, population and economic growth, and environmental concerns could be very challenging. This study was to investigate improvement in water resources systems management through the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Hydrological persistence (streamflow and precipitation) and large-scale recurrent oceanic-atmospheric patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific North American (PNA), and customized sea surface temperature (SST) indices were investigated for their potential to improve streamflow forecast accuracy and increase forecast lead-time in a river basin in central Texas. First, an ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distributions-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. Secondly, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river-reservoir systems. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas. Lastly, a simplified two-stage stochastic economic-optimization model was proposed to investigate improvement in water use efficiency and the potential value of using seasonal forecasts, under the assumption of optimal decision making under uncertainty. Model results demonstrate that incorporating the probabilistic inflow forecasts into the optimization model can provide a significant improvement in seasonal water contract benefits over climatology, with lower average deficits (increased reliability) for a given average contract amount, or improved mean contract benefits for a given level of reliability compared to climatology. The results also illustrate the trade-off between the expected contract amount and reliability, i.e., larger contracts can be signed at greater risk.

Profiles of diatoms, pollen, XRD, XRF and organic composition of two sediment cores (PG2022 and PG2023) from Lake Kyutyunda in Yakutia, NE Siberia, Russia

Although the climate development over the Holocene in the Northern Hemisphere is well known, palaeolimnological climate reconstructions reveal spatiotemporal variability in northern Eurasia. Here we present a multi-proxy study from north-eastern Siberia combining sediment geochemistry, and diatom and pollen data from lake-sediment cores covering the last 38,000 cal. years. Our results show major changes in pyrite content and fragilarioid diatom species distributions, indicating prolonged seasonal lake-ice cover between ~13,500 and ~8,900 cal. years BP and possibly during the 8,200 cal. years BP cold event. A pollen-based climate reconstruction generated a mean July temperature of 17.8°C during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) between ~8,900 and ~4,500 cal. years BP. Naviculoid diatoms appear in the late Holocene indicating a shortening of the seasonal ice cover that continues today. Our results reveal a strong correlation between the applied terrestrial and aquatic indicators and natural seasonal climate dynamics in the Holocene. Planktonic diatoms show a strong response to changes in the lake ecosystem due to recent climate warming in the Anthropocene. We assess other palaeolimnological studies to infer the spatiotemporal pattern of the HTM and affirm that the timing of its onset, a difference of up to 3,000 years from north to south, can be well explained by climatic teleconnections. The westerlies brought cold air to this part of Siberia until the Laurentide ice-sheet vanished 7,000 years ago. The apparent delayed ending of the HTM in the central Siberian record can be ascribed to the exceedance of ecological thresholds trailing behind increases in winter temperatures and decreases in contrast in insolation between seasons during the mid to late Holocene as well as lacking differentiation between summer and winter trends in paleolimnological reconstructions.

Monthly Bonaire coral Sr/Ca and oxygen isotope data from 118 kyr ago (coral BON-5-D)

The end of the last interglacial period, ~118 kyr ago, was characterized by substantial ocean circulation and climate perturbations resulting from instabilities of polar ice sheets. These perturbations are crucial for a better understanding of future climate change. The seasonal temperature changes of the tropical ocean, however, which play an important role in seasonal climate extremes such as hurricanes, floods and droughts at the present day, are not well known for this period that led into the last glacial. Here we present a monthly resolved snapshot of reconstructed sea surface temperature in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean for 117.7±0.8 kyr ago, using coral Sr/Ca and d18O records. We find that temperature seasonality was similar to today, which is consistent with the orbital insolation forcing. Our coral and climate model results suggest that temperature seasonality of the tropical surface ocean is controlled mainly by orbital insolation changes during interglacials.