The price of risk in construction projects: contingency approximation model (CAM)

Little attention has been focussed on a precise definition and evaluation mechanism for project management risk specifically related to contractors. When bidding, contractors traditionally price risks using unsystematic approaches. The high business failure rate our industry records may indicate that the current unsystematic mechanisms contractors use for building up contingencies may be inadequate. The reluctance of some contractors to include a price for risk in their tenders when bidding for work competitively may also not be a useful approach. Here, instead, we first define the meaning of contractor contingency, and then we develop a facile quantitative technique that contractors can use to estimate a price for project risk. This model will help contractors analyse their exposure to project risks; and help them express the risk in monetary terms for management action. When bidding for work, they can decide how to allocate contingencies strategically in a way that balances risk and reward.

Does The Risk Of Groundwater Depletion Drive Tube-Well Technology Adoption: A Case Of Pakistan

We employ a moment-based approach to empirically analyse farmer’s decisions about adoption of tube-well technology under depleting groundwater resources using a farm level data from 200 farming households in the Punjab province, Pakistan. The results indicate that the higher the expected profit the greater the probability of adoption. Similarly, with increasing variance the probability of adopting tube-well increases significantly indicating that farmers choose to adopt tube-well technology in order to hedge against production risks. Statistical non-significant the third moment i.e., skewness indicates that farmer generally do not consider downside yield risk when decide to adopt tube-well technology whereas highly significant fourth moment (kurtosis) employ that probability of adoption decreases as a result of extreme events in profit distribution. In addition, we show that land tenureship and three other exogenous variables, i.e., extension services, access to different sources of information and off-farm income play a significant role in the adoption process.

Mitigating high ‘equity capital’ risk exposure to ‘small cap’ sector in India: analysing ‘key factors of success’ for ‘Institutional Investors’ whilst Investing in small cap sector in India

This paper deals with the subject of mitigating high ‘Equity Capital’ Risk Exposure to ‘Small Cap’ Sector in India. Institutional investors in India are prone to be risk averse when it comes to investing in the small cap sector in India as they find the companies risky and volatile. This paper will help analyse ‘Key Factors of success’ for ‘Institutional Investors’ whilst investing in Small Cap sector in India as some of these Indian small cap stocks offer handsome returns despite economic downturn. This paper has been harnessed carefully under the influence of expert investors, which includes Benjamin Graham (Security Analysis); Warren Buffet; Philip Fisher (Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits); and Aswath Damodaran.

Diagnostic de securite d'une entreprise bresilienne a partir de l'analyse des accidents du travail par la methode de l'arbre des causes

We present here the results of a study of 21 work-related accidents that occurred in a Brazilian manufacturing company. The aim was to assess the safety level of the company to improve its work accident prevention policy. In the last 6 months of 1992 and 1993, all accidents resulting in 15 days' absence from work, reported for social security purposes, were analyzed using the INRS causal tree method (ADC) and a questionnaire completed on site. Potential risk factors for accidents were identified based on the specific factors highlighted by the ADC. More universal trees were also compiled for the safety assessment. Three hundred and thirty specific accident factors were recorded (man of 15.71 per accident). This is consistent with there being multiple causes of accidents rather than the assertion of Brazilian business safety departments that accidents are due to 'dangerous' or 'unsafe' behavior. Introducing the idea of culpability into accidents prevents the implementation of an appropriate information feedback process, essential for effective prevention. However, the large number of accidents related to 'material' (78%) and 'environment' (70%) indicates that working conditions are poor. This shows that the technical risks, mostly due to unsafe machinery and equipment are not being dealt with. Seventy-five potential accident factors were identified. Of these, 35% were 'organizational', a high proportion for the company studied. Improvisation occurs at all levels, particularly at the organizational level. This is, thus a major determinant for entire series of, if not most, accident situations. The poor condition of equipment also plays a major role in accidents. The effects of poor equipment on safety exacerbate the organizational shortcomings. The company's safety intervention policy should improve the management of human resources (rules designating particular workers for particular workstations; instructions for the safe operation of machines and equipment; training of operators, etc.) and introduce programs to detect risks and to improve the safety of machines and equipment. We also recommend the establishment of a program to follow the results of any preventive measures adopted.

Supply chain risk management: An exploratory research in Brazilian aerospace industry

This paper aimed to analyse supply chain risk factors in aerospace industry. It was conducted an exploratory research at an important Brazilian aerospace company. This company has a major role at the global aerospace industry. Senior managers assessed risk factors such as quality, productivity, supply chain, business strategy, organisation, environmental and natural political, indicators, product management, and information system. Analytic hierarchy process was applied to prioritise these factors. The most relevant were quality and productivity. Copyright © 2011 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Systemic risk in dynamical networks with stochastic failure criterion

Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erdos-Renyi network models where each node, representing a bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use a dynamical network approach to evaluate the collective financial failure -systemic risk- quantified by the fraction of active nodes. The systemic risk can be calculated over any future time period, divided into sub-periods, where within each sub-period banks may contiguously fail due to links to either i) assets or ii) other banks, controlled by two parameters, probability of internal failure p and threshold T-h ("solvency" parameter). The systemic risk decreases with the average network degree faster when all assets are equally distributed across banks than if assets are randomly distributed. The more inactive banks each bank can sustain (smaller T-h), the smaller the systemic risk -for some Th values in I we report a discontinuity in systemic risk. When contiguous spreading becomes stochastic ii) controlled by probability p(2) -a condition for the bank to be solvent (active) is stochasticthe- systemic risk decreases with decreasing p(2). We analyse the asset allocation for the U.S. banks. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2014

Breakfast frequency, adiposity, and cardiovascular risk factors as markers in adolescents

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Does the neonatal clinical risk for illness severity influence pain reactivity and recovery in preterm infants?

Background: The biobehavioural pain reactivity and recovery of preterm infants in the neonatal period may reflect the capacity of the central nervous system to regulate neurobiological development. Objective: The aim of the present study was to analyse the influence of the neonatal clinical risk for illness severity on biobehavioural pain reactivity in preterm infants. Methods: Fifty-two preterm infants were allocated into two groups according to neonatal severity of illness, as measured by the Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB). The low clinical risk (LCr) group included 30 neonates with CRIB scores <4, and the high clinical risk (HCr) group included 22 neonates with CRIB scores >= 4. Pain reactivity was assessed during a blood collection, which was divided into five phases (baseline, antisepsis, puncture, recovery-dressing and recovery-resting). Behavioral pain reactivity was measured using the scores, and magnitude of responses in Neonatal Facial Coding System (NFCS) and Sleep-Wake States Scale (SWS). The heart rate was continuously recorded. Results: The HCr demonstrated a higher magnitude of response on the SWS score from the baseline to the puncture phase than the LCr. Also, the HCr exhibited a higher mean heart rate and minimum heart rate than the LCr in the recovery-resting phase. In addition, the HCr exhibited a higher minimum heart rate from the baseline to the recovery-resting phase than the LCr. Conclusion: The infants exhibiting a high neonatal clinical risk showed high arousal during the puncture procedure and higher physiological reactivity in the recovery phase.

Hepatitis B virus infection in Haemodialysis Centres from Santa Catarina State, Southern Brazil. Predictive risk factors for infection and molecular epidemiology

Abstract Background Patients under haemodialysis are considered at high risk to acquire hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Since few data are reported from Brazil, our aim was to assess the frequency and risk factors for HBV infection in haemodialysis patients from 22 Dialysis Centres from Santa Catarina State, south of Brazil. Methods This study includes 813 patients, 149 haemodialysis workers and 772 healthy controls matched by sex and age. Serum samples were assayed for HBV markers and viraemia was detected by nested PCR. HBV was genotyped by partial S gene sequencing. Univariate and multivariate statistical analyses with stepwise logistic regression analysis were carried out to analyse the relationship between HBV infection and the characteristics of patients and their Dialysis Units. Results Frequency of HBV infection was 10.0%, 2.7% and 2.7% among patients, haemodialysis workers and controls, respectively. Amidst patients, the most frequent HBV genotypes were A (30.6%), D (57.1%) and F (12.2%). Univariate analysis showed association between HBV infection and total time in haemodialysis, type of dialysis equipment, hygiene and sterilization of equipment, number of times reusing the dialysis lines and filters, number of patients per care-worker and current HCV infection. The logistic regression model showed that total time in haemodialysis, number of times of reusing the dialysis lines and filters, and number of patients per worker were significantly related to HBV infection. Conclusions Frequency of HBV infection among haemodialysis patients at Santa Catarina state is very high. The most frequent HBV genotypes were A, D and F. The risk for a patient to become HBV positive increase 1.47 times each month of haemodialysis; 1.96 times if the dialysis unit reuses the lines and filters ≥ 10 times compared with haemodialysis units which reuse < 10 times; 3.42 times if the number of patients per worker is more than five. Sequence similarity among the HBV S gene from isolates of different patients pointed out to nosocomial transmission.

Analyse genomischer Imbalancen in hepatozellulären Karzinomen und präneoplastischen Leberläsionen

Das hepatozelluläre Karzinom (HCC) ist mit ungefähr 1,000,000 neuen Fällen pro Jahr einer der häufigsten malignen Tumore weltweit. Es ist hauptsächlich in Südost-Asien und im südlichen Afrika verbreitet. Risikofaktoren sind chronische Infektionen mit Hepatitis Viren (HBV, HCV), Aflatoxin B1-Belastung und chronischer Alkoholkonsum. Um Veränderungen auf genomischer Ebene in HCCs zu untersuchen, wurden in der vorliegenden Untersuchung Frischgewebeproben von 21 Patienten mit HCCs und formalin-fixiertes, paraffineingebettetes Material von 6 Dysplastischen Knoten mittels Comparativer genomischer Hybridisierung (CGH) analysiert. In den untersuchten HCCs konnte Zugewinne auf 1q (12/21), 6p ( 6/21), 8q (11/21), 17q (6/21), 20q (6/21), sowie Verluste auf 4q (7/21), 6q (4/21), 10q (3/21), 13q (4/21), 16q (3/21) identifiziert werden. Die Validität der mit diesem Ansatz erzielten Ergebnisse konnte anhand von unabhängigen Kontrollexperimenten mit Interphase-FISH-Analyse nachgewiesen werden. Die in Dysplastische Knoten identifizierten Veränderungen sind Gewinne auf 1q (50% ) sowie Verluste auf 8p und 17p. Daher stellt 1q eine Kandidatenregion für die Identifizierung jener Gene dar, die bereits im frühem Stadium der Hepatokarzinogenese aktiviert sind. Die Gen-Expressionsanalyse eines HCCs mit Gewinnen auf 1q, 8q, und Xq zeigte die Überexpression von einigen Genen, die in den amplifizierten Regionen liegen. Daher kann spekuliert werden, dass die DNA-Amplifikation in der Hepatokarzinogenese bei einigen Genen ein Mechanismus der Aktivierung sein kann. Zusammengefasst konnte somit durch CGH-Analyse charakteristische, genomische Imbalances des HCC ermittelt werden. Der Vergleich mit Veränderungen bei prämalignen Läsionen erlaubt die Unterscheidung früher (prämaligner) und später (progressionsassoziierter) Veränderungen

Analyse der konditionell-induzierten Überexpression von Smad7 in epithelialen Geweben der adulten Maus

Smad7 ist eine inhibitorische Komponente der TGF-β- bzw. Activin-Signalweiterleitung und erfüllt eine wichtige Aufgabe bei deren Regulation. So führt eine konstitutive Überexpression von Smad7 in epithelialen Geweben zum Auftreten verschiedener Phänotypen, wie embryonaler bzw. perinataler Letalität, Hyperproliferation der Epidermis und Thymusatrophie. Auch die Entwicklung der T-Zellen im Thymus und epithelialer Anhangsgebilde wie z.B. von Haaren und Zähnen wird dadurch beeinträchtigt. In dieser Arbeit sollte nun in der adulten Maus der Effekt einer Überexpression von Smad7 in epithelialen Geweben untersucht werden. Zu diesem Zweck wurde ein, auf dem Cre/loxP-Prinzip beruhendes Transgensystem verwendet (K5-Smad7-tg und K14-creERT2), welches eine konditionell-induzierte Überexpression von Smad7 in epithelialen Zellen der adulten Maus erlaubte. Die so gezüchteten doppeltransgenen Tiere wiesen keine signifikanten Veränderungen gegenüber ihren wildtyp bzw. einfachtransgenen Geschwistertieren auf. Die Überexpression von Smad7 in epithelialen Geweben der adulten Maus zu einem Auftreten verschiedenster veränderter Phänotypen der Haut und deren Anhänge, sowie der Schneidezähne. Bei diesen Tieren konnte auch ein signifikanter Körpergewichtsverlust und eine Erhöhung der Mortalitätsrate beobachtet werden, welche sich im Verlauf nach erfolgter Rekombination einstellte. Weitere Analysen zeigten signifikante Veränderungen in der Haut und im Thymus. So konnte in der Haut eine Erhöhung der Proliferationsrate epidermaler Zellen, eine reduzierte Expression von Smad3 und im Thymus Veränderungen in der Gesamtzahl der lebenden T-Zellen und deren Differenzierung beobachtete werden. Mit dieser Arbeit konnte gezeigt werden, daß die Hemmung der Signalweiterleitung der TGF-β-Superfamilie, speziell von TGF-β und Activin, zu verschiedenen morphogenetischen Defekten der Haut und deren Anhänge, der Zähne und der T-Zellentwicklung im Thymus führt.

Von der geographischen Analyse über die Bestandsaufnahme der anzutreffenden Krankheiten und der Anwendung traditioneller Medizin zu einem geomedizinischen Informationssystem am Beispiel einer Bergregion im Kabupaten Sikka (Insel Flores, Indonesien)

Im Rahmen der interdisziplinären Zusammenarbeit zur Durchsetzung des »Menschenrecht Gesundheit« wurde ein geomedizinisches Informationssystem erstellt, das auf die nordexponierten Bergdörfer zwischen 350 m ü. NN und 450 m ü. NN des Kabupaten Sikka auf der Insel Flores in Indonesien anwendbar ist. Es wurde eine Analyse der Zeit-Raum-Dimension der Gesundheitssituation in Wololuma und Napun Lawan - exemplarisch für die nordexponierten Bergdörfer - durchgeführt. Im Untersuchungsraum wurden Gesundheitsgefahren und Gesundheitsrisiken analysiert, Zonen der Gefahren herausgearbeitet und Risikoräume bewertet. Trotz eines El Niño-Jahres waren prinzipielle Bezüge der Krankheiten zum jahreszeitlichen Rhythmus der wechselfeuchten Tropen zu erkennen. Ausgehend von der Vermutung, dass Krankheiten mit spezifischen Klimaelementen korrelieren, wurden Zusammenhänge gesucht. Für jede Krankheit wurden Makro-, Meso- und Mikrorisikoräume ermittelt. Somit wurden Krankheitsherde lokalisiert. Die Generalisierung des geomedizinischen Informationssystems lässt sich auf der Makroebene auf die nordexponierten Bergdörfer zwischen 350 m ü. NN und 450 m ü. NN des Kabupaten Sikka übertragen. Aus einer Vielzahl von angetroffenen Krankheiten wurden sechs Krankheiten selektiert. Aufgrund der Häufigkeitszahlen ergibt sich für das Gesundheitsrisiko der Bevölkerung eine Prioritätenliste:rn- Dermatomykosen (ganzjährig)rn- Typhus (ganzjährig)rn- Infektionen der unteren Atemwege (Übergangszeit)rn- Infektionen der oberen Atemwege (Übergangszeit)rn- Malaria (Regenzeit)rn- Struma (ganzjährig)rnDie Hauptrisikogruppe der Makroebene ist die feminine Bevölkerung. Betroffen sind weibliche Kleinkinder von null bis sechs Jahren und Frauen ab 41 Jahren. Die erstellten Karten des zeitlichen und räumlichen Verbreitungsmusters der Krankheiten und des Zugangs zu Gesundheitsdienstleistungen dienen Entscheidungsträgern als Entscheidungshilfe für den Einsatz der Mittel zur Primärprävention. Die Geographie als Wissenschaft mit ihren Methoden und dem Zeit-Raum-Modell hat gezeigt, dass sie die Basis für die interdisziplinäre Forschung darstellt. Die interdisziplinäre Zusammenarbeit zur Gesundheitsforschung im Untersuchungszeitraum 2009 hat sich bewährt und muss weiter ausgebaut werden. Die vorgeschlagenen Lösungsmöglichkeiten dienen der Minimierung des Gesundheitsrisikos und der Gesundheitsvorsorge. Da die Systemzusammenhänge der Ätiologie der einzelnen Krankheiten sehr komplex sind, besteht noch immer sehr großer Forschungsbedarf. rnDas Ergebnis der vorliegenden Untersuchung zeigt, dass Wasser in jeder Form die primäre Ursache für das Gesundheitsrisiko der Bergdörfer im Kabupaten Sikka auf der Insel Flores in Indonesien ist.rnDer Zugang zu Wasser ist unerlässlich für die Verwirklichung des »Menschenrecht Gesundheit«. Das Recht auf Wasser besagt, dass jeder Mensch Zugang zu nicht gesundheitsgefährdendem, ausreichendem und bezahlbarem Wasser haben soll. Alle Staaten dieser Erde sollten sich dieser Forderung verpflichtet fühlen.rn

Are there risk factors for snowboard injuries? A case-control multicentre study of 559 snowboarders

To analyse risk factors leading to injuries during snowboarding.

Protective and risk factors in amateur equestrians and description of injury patterns: A retrospective data analysis and a case - control survey

Background In Switzerland there are about 150,000 equestrians. Horse related injuries, including head and spinal injuries, are frequently treated at our level I trauma centre. Objectives To analyse injury patterns, protective factors, and risk factors related to horse riding, and to define groups of safer riders and those at greater risk Methods We present a retrospective and a case-control survey at conducted a tertiary trauma centre in Bern, Switzerland. Injured equestrians from July 2000 - June 2006 were retrospectively classified by injury pattern and neurological symptoms. Injured equestrians from July-December 2008 were prospectively collected using a questionnaire with 17 variables. The same questionnaire was applied in non-injured controls. Multiple logistic regression was performed, and combined risk factors were calculated using inference trees. Results Retrospective survey A total of 528 injuries occured in 365 patients. The injury pattern revealed as follows: extremities (32%: upper 17%, lower 15%), head (24%), spine (14%), thorax (9%), face (9%), pelvis (7%) and abdomen (2%). Two injuries were fatal. One case resulted in quadriplegia, one in paraplegia. Case-control survey 61 patients and 102 controls (patients: 72% female, 28% male; controls: 63% female, 37% male) were included. Falls were most frequent (65%), followed by horse kicks (19%) and horse bites (2%). Variables statistically significant for the controls were: Older age (p = 0.015), male gender (p = 0.04) and holding a diploma in horse riding (p = 0.004). Inference trees revealed typical groups less and more likely to suffer injury. Conclusions Experience with riding and having passed a diploma in horse riding seem to be protective factors. Educational levels and injury risk should be graded within an educational level-injury risk index.

Are there risk factors in alpine skiing? A controlled multicentre survey of 1278 skiers

OBJECTIVE: To analyse risk factors in alpine skiing. DESIGN: A controlled multicentre survey of injured and non-injured alpine skiers. SETTING: One tertiary and two secondary trauma centres in Bern, Switzerland. PATIENTS AND METHODS: All injured skiers admitted from November 2007 to April 2008 were analysed using a completed questionnaire incorporating 15 parameters. The same questionnaire was distributed to non-injured controls. Multiple logistic regression was performed. Patterns of combined risk factors were calculated by inference trees. A total of 782 patients and 496 controls were interviewed. RESULTS: Parameters that were significant for the patients were: high readiness for risk (p = 0.0365, OR 1.84, 95% CI 1.04 to 3.27); low readiness for speed (p = 0.0008, OR 0.29, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.60); no aggressive behaviour on slopes (p<0.0001, OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.09 to 0.37); new skiing equipment (p = 0.0228, OR 59, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.93); warm-up performed (p = 0.0015, OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.25 to 2.57); old snow compared with fresh snow (p = 0.0155, OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.80); old snow compared with artificial snow (p = 0.0037, OR 0.21, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.60); powder snow compared with slushy snow (p = 0.0035, OR 0.25, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.63); drug consumption (p = 0.0044, OR 5.92, 95% CI 1.74 to 20.11); and alcohol abstinence (p<0.0001, OR 0.14, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.34). Three groups at risk were detected: (1) warm-up 3-12 min, visual analogue scale (VAS)(speed) >4 and bad weather/visibility; (2) VAS(speed) 4-7, icy slopes and not wearing a helmet; (3) warm-up >12 min and new skiing equipment. CONCLUSIONS: Low speed, high readiness for risk, new skiing equipment, old and powder snow, and drug consumption are significant risk factors when skiing. Future work should aim to identify more precisely specific groups at risk and develop recommendations--for example, a snow weather index at valley stations.