Expert elicitation and its interface with technology : a review with a view to designing Elicitator

Expert knowledge is valuable in many modelling endeavours, particularly where data is not extensive or sufficiently robust. In Bayesian statistics, expert opinion may be formulated as informative priors, to provide an honest reflection of the current state of knowledge, before updating this with new information. Technology is increasingly being exploited to help support the process of eliciting such information. This paper reviews the benefits that have been gained from utilizing technology in this way. These benefits can be structured within a six-step elicitation design framework proposed recently (Low Choy et al., 2009). We assume that the purpose of elicitation is to formulate a Bayesian statistical prior, either to provide a standalone expert-defined model, or for updating new data within a Bayesian analysis. We also assume that the model has been pre-specified before selecting the software. In this case, technology has the most to offer to: targeting what experts know (E2), eliciting and encoding expert opinions (E4), whilst enhancing accuracy (E5), and providing an effective and efficient protocol (E6). Benefits include: -providing an environment with familiar nuances (to make the expert comfortable) where experts can explore their knowledge from various perspectives (E2); -automating tedious or repetitive tasks, thereby minimizing calculation errors, as well as encouraging interaction between elicitors and experts (E5); -cognitive gains by educating users, enabling instant feedback (E2, E4-E5), and providing alternative methods of communicating assessments and feedback information, since experts think and learn differently; and -ensuring a repeatable and transparent protocol is used (E6).

3D visualisation of groundwater/surface water systems as a planning and communication tool

Groundwater is increasingly recognised as an important yet vulnerable natural resource, and a key consideration in water cycle management. However, communication of sub-surface water system behaviour, as an important part of encouraging better water management, is visually difficult. Modern 3D visualisation techniques can be used to effectively communicate these complex behaviours to engage and inform community stakeholders. Most software developed for this purpose is expensive and requires specialist skills. The Groundwater Visualisation System (GVS) developed by QUT integrates a wide range of surface and sub-surface data, to produce a 3D visualisation of the behaviour, structure and connectivity of groundwater/surface water systems. Surface data (elevation, surface water, land use, vegetation and geology) and data collected from boreholes (bore locations and subsurface geology) are combined to visualise the nature, structure and connectivity of groundwater/surface water systems. Time-series data (water levels, groundwater quality, rainfall, stream flow and groundwater abstraction) is displayed as an animation within the 3D framework, or graphically, to show water system condition changes over time. GVS delivers an interactive, stand-alone 3D Visualisation product that can be used in a standard PC environment. No specialised training or modelling skills are required. The software has been used extensively in the SEQ region to inform and engage both water managers and the community alike. Examples will be given of GVS visualisations developed in areas where there have been community concerns around groundwater over-use and contamination.

Pressure filtration of Australian bagasse pulp

A one-dimensional pressure filtration model that can be used to predict the behaviour of bagasse pulp has been developed and verified in this study.The dynamic filtration model uses steady state compressibility parameters determined experimentally by uniaxial loading. The compressibility parameters M and N for depithed bagasse pulp were determined to be in the ranges 3000–8000kPa and 2.5–3.0 units, respectively. The model also incorporates experimentally determined steady state permeability data from separate experiments to predict the pulp concentration and fibre pressure throughout a pulp mat during dynamic filtration. Under steady state conditions, a variable Kozeny factor required different values for the permeability parameters when compared to a constant Kozeny factor. The specific surface area was 25–30% lower and the swelling factor was 20–25% higher when a variable Kozeny factor was used. Excellent agreement between experimental data and the dynamic filtration model was achieved when a variable Kozeny factor was used.

Visualisation modelling in 3D of an alluvial aquifer system at a valley-wide scale to understand groundwater status : Lockyer, QLD

Visualisation provides a method to efficiently convey and understand the complex nature and processes of groundwater systems. This technique has been applied to the Lockyer Valley to aid in comprehending the current condition of the system. The Lockyer Valley in southeast Queensland hosts intensive irrigated agriculture sourcing groundwater from alluvial aquifers. The valley is around 3000 km2 in area and the alluvial deposits are typically 1-3 km wide and to 20-35 m deep in the main channels, reducing in size in subcatchments. The configuration of the alluvium is of a series of elongate “fingers”. In this roughly circular valley recharge to the alluvial aquifers is largely from seasonal storm events, on the surrounding ranges. The ranges are overlain by basaltic aquifers of Tertiary age, which overall are quite transmissive. Both runoff from these ranges and infiltration into the basalts provided ephemeral flow to the streams of the valley. Throughout the valley there are over 5,000 bores extracting alluvial groundwater, plus lesser numbers extracting from underlying sandstone bedrock. Although there are approximately 2500 monitoring bores, the only regularly monitored area is the formally declared management zone in the lower one third. This zone has a calibrated Modflow model (Durick and Bleakly, 2000); a broader valley Modflow model was developed in 2002 (KBR), but did not have extensive extraction data for detailed calibration. Another Modflow model focused on a central area river confluence (Wilson, 2005) with some local production data and pumping test results. A recent subcatchment simulation model incorporates a network of bores with short-period automated hydrographic measurements (Dvoracek and Cox, 2008). The above simulation models were all based on conceptual hydrogeological models of differing scale and detail.

A 3D visualisation model applied to a thick, multi-layered alluvial groundwater system under stress : Condamine Valley, QLD

The upper Condamine River in southern Queensland has formed extensive alluvial deposits which have been used for irrigation of cotton crops for over 40 years. Due to excessive use and long term drought conditions these groundwater resources are under substantial threat. This condition is now recognised by all stakeholders, and Qld Department of Environment and Resource Management (DERM) are currently undertaking a water planning process for the Central Condamine Alluvium with water users and other stakeholders. DERM aims to effectively demonstrate the character of the groundwater system and its current status, and notably the continued long-term drawdown of the watertable. It was agreed that 3D visualisation was an ideal tool to achieve this. The Groundwater Visualisation System (GVS) developed at QUT was utilised and the visualisation model developed in conjunction with DERM to achieve a planning-management tool for this particular application

GVS : A flexible, low-end, 3D visualisation framework for enhancing conceptual groundwater models for community, management and simulations

In this paper we discuss an advanced, 3D groundwater visualisation and animation system that allows scientists, government agencies and community groups to better understand the groundwater processes that effect community planning and decision-making. The system is unique in that it has been designed to optimise community engagement. Although it incorporates a powerful visualisation engine, this open-source system can be freely distributed and boasts a simple user interface allowing individuals to run and investigate the models on their own PCs and gain intimate knowledge of the groundwater systems. The initial version of the Groundwater Visualisation System (GVS v1.0), was developed from a coastal delta setting (Bundaberg, QLD), and then applied to a basalt catchment area (Obi Obi Creek, Maleny, QLD). Several major enhancements have been developed to produce higher quality visualisations, including display of more types of data, support for larger models and improved user interaction. The graphics and animation capabilities have also been enhanced, notably the display of boreholes, depth logs and time-series water level surfaces. The GVS software remains under continual development and improvement

Community engagement and groundwater investigation in a rural/peri urban basaltic aquifier system, Tamborine Mountain, South East Queensland

The Tamborine Mt area is a popular residential and tourist area in the Gold Coast hinterland, SE Qld. The 15km2 area occurs on elevated remnant Tertiary Basalts of the Beechmont Group, which comprise a number of mappable flow units originally derived from the Tweed volcanic centre to the south. The older Albert Basalt (Tertiary), which underlies the Beechmont Basalt at the southern end of the investigation area, is thought to be derived from the Focal Peak volcanic centre to the south west. The Basalts contain a locally significant ‘un-declared’ groundwater resource, which is utilised by the Tamborine Mt community for: • domestic purposes to supplement rainwater tank supplies, • commercial scale horticulture and • commercial export off-Mountain for bottled water. There is no reticulated water supply, and all waste water is treated on-site through domestic scale WTPs. Rainforest and other riparian ecosystems that attract residents and tourist dollars to the area, are also reliant on the groundwater that discharges to springs and surface streams on and around the plateau. Issues regarding a lack of compiled groundwater information, groundwater contamination, and groundwater sustainability are being investigated by QUT, utilising funding provided by the Federal Government’s ‘Caring for our Country’ programme through SEQ Catchments Ltd. The objectives of the two year project, which started in April 2009, are to: • Characterise the nature and condition of groundwater / surface water systems in the Tamborine Mountain area in terms of the issues being raised; • Engage and build capacity within the community to source local knowledge, encourage participation, raise awareness and improve understanding of the impacts of land and water use; • Develop a stand-alone 3D Visualisation model for dissemination into the community and use as a communication tool.

Semantic oscillations : encoding context and structure in complex valued holographic vectors

In computational linguistics, information retrieval and applied cognition, words and concepts are often represented as vectors in high dimensional spaces computed from a corpus of text. These high dimensional spaces are often referred to as Semantic Spaces. We describe a novel and efficient approach to computing these semantic spaces via the use of complex valued vector representations. We report on the practical implementation of the proposed method and some associated experiments. We also briefly discuss how the proposed system relates to previous theoretical work in Information Retrieval and Quantum Mechanics and how the notions of probability, logic and geometry are integrated within a single Hilbert space representation. In this sense the proposed system has more general application and gives rise to a variety of opportunities for future research.

Building an Australian user community for VIVO

The Australian National Data Service (ANDS) was established in 2008 and aims to: influence national policy in the area of data management in the Australian research community; inform best practice for the curation of data, and, transform the disparate collections of research data around Australia into a cohesive collection of research resources One high profile ANDS activity is to establish the population of Research Data Australia, a set of web pages describing data collections produced by or relevant to Australian researchers. It is designed to promote visibility of research data collections in search engines, in order to encourage their re-use. As part of activities associated with the Australian National Data Service, an increasing number of Australian Universities are choosing to implement VIVO, not as a platform to profile information about researchers, but as a 'metadata store' platform to profile information about institutional research data sets, both locally and as part of a national data commons. To date, the University of Melbourne, Griffith University, the Queensland University of Technology, and the University of Western Australia have all chosen to implement VIVO, with interest from other Universities growing.

A synthesizable hardware evolutionary algorithm design for unmanned aerial system real-time path planning

The main objective of this paper is to detail the development of a feasible hardware design based on Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs) to determine flight path planning for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) navigating terrain with obstacle boundaries. The design architecture includes the hardware implementation of Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) terrain and EA population memories within the hardware, as well as the EA search and evaluation algorithms used in the optimizing stage of path planning. A synthesisable Very-high-speed integrated circuit Hardware Description Language (VHDL) implementation of the design was developed, for realisation on a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) platform. Simulation results show significant speedup compared with an equivalent software implementation written in C++, suggesting that the present approach is well suited for UAV real-time path planning applications.

Developments in texture-based vector field visualisation techniques

Vector field visualisation is one of the classic sub-fields of scientific data visualisation. The need for effective visualisation of flow data arises in many scientific domains ranging from medical sciences to aerodynamics. Though there has been much research on the topic, the question of how to communicate flow information effectively in real, practical situations is still largely an unsolved problem. This is particularly true for complex 3D flows. In this presentation we give a brief introduction and background to vector field visualisation and comment on the effectiveness of the most common solutions. We will then give some examples of current development on texture-based techniques, and given practical examples of their use in CFD research and hydrodynamic applications.

Practical introduction to development of sage applications

Throughout this workshop session we have looked at various configurations of Sage as well as using the Sage UI to run Sage applications (e.g. the image viewer). More advanced usage of Sage has been demonstrated using a Sage compatible version of Paraview highlighting the potential of parallel rendering. The aim of this tutorial session is to give a practical introduction to developing visual content for a tiled display using the Sage libraries. After completing this tutorial you should have the basic tools required to develop your own custom Sage applications. This tutorial is designed for software developers and intermediate programming knowledge is assumed, along with some introductory OpenGL . You will be required to write small portions of C/C++ code to complete this worksheet. However if you do not feel comfortable writing code (or have never written in C or C++), we will be on hand throughout this session so feel free to ask for some help. We have a number of machines in this lab running a VNC client to a virtual machine running Fedora 12. You should all be able to log in with the username “escience”, and password “escience10”. Some of the commands in this worksheet require you to run them as the root user, so note the password as you may need to use it a few times. If you need to access the Internet, then use the username “qpsf01”, password “escience10”

High resolution tiled display walls

Scalable high-resolution tiled display walls are becoming increasingly important to decision makers and researchers because high pixel counts in combination with large screen areas facilitate content rich, simultaneous display of computer-generated visualization information and high-definition video data from multiple sources. This tutorial is designed to cater for new users as well as researchers who are currently operating tiled display walls or 'OptiPortals'. We will discuss the current and future applications of display wall technology and explore opportunities for participants to collaborate and contribute in a growing community. Multiple tutorial streams will cover both hands-on practical development, as well as policy and method design for embedding these technologies into the research process. Attendees will be able to gain an understanding of how to get started with developing similar systems themselves, in addition to becoming familiar with typical applications and large-scale visualisation techniques. Presentations in this tutorial will describe current implementations of tiled display walls that highlight the effective usage of screen real-estate with various visualization datasets, including collaborative applications such as visualcasting, classroom learning and video conferencing. A feature presentation for this tutorial will be given by Jurgen Schulze from Calit2 at the University of California, San Diego. Jurgen is an expert in scientific visualization in virtual environments, human-computer interaction, real-time volume rendering, and graphics algorithms on programmable graphics hardware.

Note on similarity solutions for viscous flow over an impermeable and non-linearly (quadratic) stretching sheet

Similarity solutions for flow over an impermeable, non-linearly (quadratic) stretching sheet were studied recently by Raptis and Perdikis (Int. J. Non-linear Mech. 41 (2006) 527–529) using a stream function of the form ψ=αxf(η)+βx2g(η). A fundamental error in their problem formulation is pointed out. On correction, it is shown that similarity solutions do not exist for this choice of ψ