Sensitivity of peak positions to flight-path parameters in a deep-inelastic scattering neutron TOF spectrometer

The effects of small changes in flight-path parameters (primary and secondary flight paths, detector angles), and of displacement of the sample along the beam axis away from its ideal position, are examined for an inelastic time-of-flight (TOF) neutron spectrometer, emphasising the deep-inelastic regime. The aim was to develop a rational basis for deciding what measured shifts in the positions of spectral peaks could be regarded as reliable in the light of the uncertainties in the calibrated flight-path parameters. Uncertainty in the length of the primary or secondary flight path has the least effect on the positions of the peaks of H, D and He, which are dominated by the accuracy of the calibration of the detector angles. This aspect of the calibration of a TOF spectrometer therefore demands close attention to achieve reliable outcomes where the position of the peaks is of significant scientific interest and is discussed in detail. The corresponding sensitivities of the position of peak of the Compton profile, J(y), to flight-path parameters and sample position are also examined, focusing on the comparability across experiments of results for H, D and He. We show that positioning the sample to within a few mm of the ideal position is required to ensure good comparability between experiments if data from detectors at high forward angles are to be reliably interpreted.

A comprehensive investigation of the risky driving behaviour of young novice drivers

Young novice drivers - that is, drivers aged 16-25 years who are relatively inexperienced in driving on the road and have a novice (Learner, Provisional) driver's licence - have been overrepresented in car crash, injury and fatality statistics around the world for decades. There are numerous persistent characteristics evident in young novice driver crashes, fatalities and offences, including variables relating to the young driver themselves, broader social influences which include their passengers, the car they drive, and when and how they drive, and their risky driving behaviour in particular. Moreover, there are a range of psychosocial factors influencing the behaviour of young novice drivers, including the social influences of parents and peers, and person-related factors such as age-related factors, attitudes, and sensation seeking. Historically, a range of approaches have been developed to manage the risky driving behaviour of young novice drivers. Traditional measures predominantly relying upon education have had limited success in regulating the risky driving behaviour of the young novice driver. In contrast, interventions such as graduated driver licensing (GDL) which acknowledges young novice drivers' limitations - principally pertaining to their chronological and developmental age, and their driving inexperience - have shown to be effective in ameliorating this pervasive public health problem. In practice, GDL is a risk management tool that is designed to reduce driving at risky times (e.g., at night) or in risky driving conditions (e.g., with passengers), while still enabling novice drivers to obtain experience. In this regard, the GDL program in Queensland, Australia, was considerably enhanced in July 2007, and major additions to the program include mandated Learner practice of 100 hours recorded in a logbook, and passenger limits during night driving in the Provisional phase. Road safety researchers have also continued to consider the influential role played by the young driver's psychosocial characteristics, including psychological traits and states. In addition, whilst the majority of road safety user research is epidemiological in nature, contemporary road safety research is increasingly applying psychological and criminological theories. Importantly, such theories not only can guide young novice driver research, they can also inform the development and evaluation of countermeasures targeting their risky driving behaviour. The research is thus designed to explore the self-reported behaviours - and the personal, psychosocial, and structural influences upon the behaviours - of young novice drivers This thesis incorporates three stages of predominantly quantitative research to undertake a comprehensive investigation of the risky driving behaviour of young novices. Risky driving behaviour increases the likelihood of the young novice driver being involved in a crash which may harm themselves or other road users, and deliberate risky driving such as driving in excess of the posted speed limits is the focus of the program of research. The extant literature examining the nature of the risky behaviour of the young novice driver - and the contributing factors for this behaviour - while comprehensive, has not led to the development of a reliable instrument designed specifically to measure the risky behaviour of the young novice driver. Therefore the development and application of such a tool (the Behaviour of Young Novice Drivers Scale, or BYNDS) was foremost in the program of research. In addition to describing the driving behaviours of the young novice, a central theme of this program of research was identifying, describing, and quantifying personal, behavioural, and environmental influences upon young novice driver risky behaviour. Accordingly the 11 papers developed from the three stages of research which comprise this thesis are framed within Bandura's reciprocal determinism model which explicitly considers the reciprocal relationship between the environment, the person, and their behaviour. Stage One comprised the foundation research and operationalised quantitative and qualitative methodologies to finalise the instrument used in Stages Two and Three. The first part of Stage One involved an online survey which was completed by 761 young novice drivers who attended tertiary education institutions across Queensland. A reliable instrument for measuring the risky driving behaviour of young novices was developed (the BYNDS) and is currently being operationalised in young novice driver research in progress at the Centre for Injury Research and Prevention in Philadelphia, USA. In addition, regression analyses revealed that psychological distress influenced risky driving behaviour, and the differential influence of depression, anxiety, sensitivity to punishments and rewards, and sensation seeking propensity were explored. Path model analyses revealed that punishment sensitivity was mediated by anxiety and depression; and the influence of depression, anxiety, reward sensitivity and sensation seeking propensity were moderated by the gender of the driver. Specifically, for males, sensation seeking propensity, depression, and reward sensitivity were predictive of self-reported risky driving, whilst for females anxiety was also influential. In the second part of Stage One, 21 young novice drivers participated in individual and small group interviews. The normative influences of parents, peers, and the Police were explicated. Content analysis supported four themes of influence through punishments, rewards, and the behaviours and attitudes of parents and friends. The Police were also influential upon the risky driving behaviour of young novices. The findings of both parts of Stage One informed the research of Stage Two. Stage Two was a comprehensive investigation of the pre-Licence and Learner experiences, attitudes, and behaviours, of young novice drivers. In this stage, 1170 young novice drivers from across Queensland completed an online or paper survey exploring their experiences, behaviours and attitudes as a pre- and Learner driver. The majority of novices did not drive before they were licensed (pre-Licence driving) or as an unsupervised Learner, submitted accurate logbooks, intended to follow the road rules as a Provisional driver, and reported practicing predominantly at the end of the Learner period. The experience of Learners in the enhanced-GDL program were also examined and compared to those of Learner drivers who progressed through the former-GDL program (data collected previously by Bates, Watson, & King, 2009a). Importantly, current-GDL Learners reported significantly more driving practice and a longer Learner period, less difficulty obtaining practice, and less offence detection and crash involvement than Learners in the former-GDL program. The findings of Stage Two informed the research of Stage Three. Stage Three was a comprehensive exploration of the driving experiences, attitudes and behaviours of young novice drivers during their first six months of Provisional 1 licensure. In this stage, 390 of the 1170 young novice drivers from Stage Two completed another survey, and data collected during Stages Two and Three allowed a longitudinal investigation of self-reported risky driving behaviours, such as GDL-specific and general road rule compliance; risky behaviour such as pre-Licence driving, crash involvement and offence detection; and vehicle ownership, paying attention to Police presence, and punishment avoidance. Whilst the majority of Learner and Provisional drivers reported compliance with GDL-specific and general road rules, 33% of Learners and 50% of Provisional drivers reported speeding by 10-20 km/hr at least occasionally. Twelve percent of Learner drivers reported pre-Licence driving, and these drivers were significantly more risky as Learner and Provisional drivers. Ten percent of males and females reported being involved in a crash, and 10% of females and 18% of males had been detected for an offence, within the first six months of independent driving. Additionally, 75% of young novice drivers reported owning their own car within six months of gaining their Provisional driver's licence. Vehicle owners reported significantly shorter Learner periods and more risky driving exposure as a Provisional driver. Paying attention to Police presence on the roads appeared normative for young novice drivers: 91% of Learners and 72% of Provisional drivers reported paying attention. Provisional drivers also reported they actively avoided the Police: 25% of males and 13% of females; 23% of rural drivers and 15% of urban drivers. Stage Three also allowed the refinement of the risky behaviour measurement tool (BYNDS) created in Stage One; the original reliable 44-item instrument was refined to a similarly reliable 36-item instrument. A longitudinal exploration of the influence of anxiety, depression, sensation seeking propensity and reward sensitivity upon the risky behaviour of the Provisional driver was also undertaken using data collected in Stages Two and Three. Consistent with the research of Stage One, structural equation modeling revealed anxiety, reward sensitivity and sensation seeking propensity predicted self-reported risky driving behaviour. Again, gender was a moderator, with only reward sensitivity predicting risky driving for males. A measurement model of Akers' social learning theory (SLT) was developed containing six subscales operationalising the four constructs of differential association, imitation, personal attitudes, and differential reinforcement, and the influence of parents and peers was captured within the items in a number of these constructs. Analyses exploring the nature and extent of the psychosocial influences of personal characteristics (step 1), Akers' SLT (step 2), and elements of the prototype/willingness model (PWM) (step 3) upon self-reported speeding by the Provisional driver in a hierarchical multiple regression model found the following significant predictors: gender (male), car ownership (own car), reward sensitivity (greater sensitivity), depression (greater depression), personal attitudes (more risky attitudes), and speeding (more speeding) as a Learner. The research findings have considerable implications for road safety researchers, policy-makers, mental health professionals and medical practitioners alike. A broad range of issues need to be considered when developing, implementing and evaluating interventions for both the intentional and unintentional risky driving behaviours of interest. While a variety of interventions have been historically utilised, including education, enforcement, rehabilitation and incentives, caution is warranted. A multi-faceted approach to improving novice road safety is more likely to be effective, and new and existing countermeasures should capitalise on the potential of parents, peers and Police to be a positive influence upon the risky behaviour of young novice drivers. However, the efficacy of some interventions remains undetermined at this time. Notwithstanding this caveat, countermeasures such as augmenting and strengthening Queensland's GDL program and targeting parents and adolescents particularly warrant further attention. The findings of the research program suggest that Queensland's current-GDL can be strengthened by increasing compliance of young novice drivers with existing conditions and restrictions. The rates of speeding reported by the young Learner driver are particularly alarming for a number of reasons. The Learner is inexperienced in driving, and travelling in excess of speed limits places them at greater risk as they are also inexperienced in detecting and responding appropriately to driving hazards. In addition, the Learner period should provide the foundation for a safe lifetime driving career, enabling the development and reinforcement of non-risky driving habits. Learners who sped reported speeding by greater margins, and at greater frequencies, when they were able to drive independently. Other strategies could also be considered to enhance Queensland's GDL program, addressing both the pre-Licence adolescent and their parents. Options that warrant further investigation to determine their likely effectiveness include screening and treatment of novice drivers by mental health professionals and/or medical practitioners; and general social skills training. Considering the self-reported pre-licence driving of the young novice driver, targeted education of parents may need to occur before their child obtains a Learner licence. It is noteworthy that those participants who reported risky driving during the Learner phase also were more likely to report risky driving behaviour during the Provisional phase; therefore it appears vital that the development of safe driving habits is encouraged from the beginning of the novice period. General education of parents and young novice drivers should inform them of the considerably-increased likelihood of risky driving behaviour, crashes and offences associated with having unlimited access to a vehicle in the early stages of intermediate licensure. Importantly, parents frequently purchase the car that is used by the Provisional driver, who typically lives at home with their parents, and therefore parents are ideally positioned to monitor the journeys of their young novice driver during this early stage of independent driving. Parents are pivotal in the development of their driving child: they are models who are imitated and are sources of attitudes, expectancies, rewards and punishments; and they provide the most driving instruction for the Learner. High rates of self-reported speeding by Learners suggests that GDL programs specifically consider the nature of supervision during the Learner period, encouraging supervisors to be vigilant to compliance with general and GDL-specific road rules, and especially driving in excess of speed limit. Attitudes towards driving are formed before the adolescent reaches the age when they can be legally licensed. Young novice drivers with risky personal attitudes towards driving reported more risky driving behaviour, suggesting that countermeasures should target such attitudes and that such interventions might be implemented before the adolescent is licensed. The risky behaviours and attitudes of friends were also found to be influential, and given that young novice drivers tend to carry their friends as their passengers, a group intervention such as provided in a school class context may prove more effective. Social skills interventions that encourage the novice to resist the negative influences of their friends and their peer passengers, and to not imitate the risky driving behaviour of their friends, may also be effective. The punishments and rewards anticipated from and administered by friends were also found to influence the self-reported risky behaviour of the young novice driver; therefore young persons could be encouraged to sanction the risky, and to reward the non-risky, driving of their novice friends. Adolescent health programs and related initiatives need to more specifically consider the risks associated with driving. Young novice drivers are also adolescents, a developmental period associated with depression and anxiety. Depression, anxiety, and sensation seeking propensity were found to be predictive of risky driving; therefore interventions targeting psychological distress, whilst discouraging the expression of sensation seeking propensity whilst driving, warrant development and trialing. In addition, given that reward sensitivity was also predictive, a scheme which rewards novice drivers for safe driving behaviour - rather than rewarding the novice through emotional and instrumental rewards for risky driving behaviour - requires further investigation. The Police were also influential in the risky driving behaviour of young novices. Young novice drivers who had been detected for an offence, and then avoided punishment, reacted differentially, with some drivers appearing to become less risky after the encounter, whilst for others their risky behaviour appeared to be reinforced and therefore was more likely to be performed again. Such drivers saw t

Ethanol sensitivity of thermally evaporated nanostructured WO3 thin films doped and implanted with Fe

Ethanol sensing performance of gas sensors made of Fe doped and Fe implanted nanostructured WO3 thin films prepared by a thermal evaporation technique was investigated. Three different types of nanostructured thin films, namely, pure WO3 thin films, iron-doped WO3 thin films by co-evaporation and Fe-implanted WO3 thin films have been synthesized. All the thin films have a film thickness of 300 nm. The physical, chemical and electronic properties of these films have been optimized by annealing heat treatment at 300ºC and 400ºC for 2 hours in air. Various analytical techniques were employed to characterize these films. Atomic Force Microscopy and Transmission Electron Microscopy revealed a very small grain size of the order 5-10 nm in as-deposited WO3 films, and annealing at 300ºC or 400ºC did not result in any significant change in grain size. This study has demonstrated enhanced sensing properties of WO3 thin film sensors towards ethanol at lower operating temperature, which was achieved by optimizing the physical, chemical and electronic properties of the WO3 film through Fe doping and annealing.

Sensitivity of edge detection methods for quantifying cell migration assays

Quantitative imaging methods to analyze cell migration assays are not standardized. Here we present a suite of two–dimensional barrier assays describing the collective spreading of an initially–confined population of 3T3 fibroblast cells. To quantify the motility rate we apply two different automatic image detection methods to locate the position of the leading edge of the spreading population after 24, 48 and 72 hours. These results are compared with a manual edge detection method where we systematically vary the detection threshold. Our results indicate that the observed spreading rates are very sensitive to the choice of image analysis tools and we show that a standard measure of cell migration can vary by as much as 25% for the same experimental images depending on the details of the image analysis tools. Our results imply that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to meaningfully compare previously published measures of cell migration since previous results have been obtained using different image analysis techniques and the details of these techniques are not always reported. Using a mathematical model, we provide a physical interpretation of our edge detection results. The physical interpretation is important since edge detection algorithms alone do not specify any physical measure, or physical definition, of the leading edge of the spreading population. Our modeling indicates that variations in the image threshold parameter correspond to a consistent variation in the local cell density. This means that varying the threshold parameter is equivalent to varying the location of the leading edge in the range of approximately 1–5% of the maximum cell density.

Very sensitive fiber Bragg grating accelerometer using transverse forces with an easy over-range protection and low cross axial sensitivity

The first fiber Bragg grating (FBG) accelerometer using direct transverse forces is demonstrated by fixing the FBG by its two ends and placing a transversely moving inertial object at its middle. It is very sensitive because a lightly stretched FBG is more sensitive to transverse forces than axial forces. Its resonant frequency and static sensitivity are analyzed by the classic spring-mass theory, assuming the axial force changes little. The experiments show that the theory can be modified for cases where the assumption does not hold. The resonant frequency can be modified by a linear relationship experimentally achieved, and the static sensitivity by an alternative method proposed. The principles of the over-range protection and low cross axial sensitivity are achieved by limiting the movement of the FBG and were validated experimentally. The sensitivities 1.333 and 0.634 nm/g were experimentally achieved by 5.29 and 2.83 gram inertial objects at 10 Hz from 0.1 to 0.4 g (g = 9.8 m/s 2), respectively, and their resonant frequencies were around 25 Hz. Their theoretical static sensitivities and resonant frequencies found by the modifications are 1.188 nm/g and 26.81 Hz for the 5.29 gram one and 0.784 nm/g and 29.04 Hz for the 2.83 gram one, respectively.

A meta-analysis of pigmentary characteristics, sun sensitivity, freckling and melanocytic nevi and risk of basal cell carcinoma of the skin

Objective: To calculate pooled risk estimates of the association between pigmentary characteristics and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) of the skin. Methods: We searched three electronic databases and reviewed the reference lists of the retrieved articles until July 2012 to identify eligible epidemiologic studies. Eligible studies were those published in between 1965 and July 2012 that permitted quantitative assessment of the association between histologically-confirmed BCC and any of the following characteristics: hair colour, eye colour, skin colour, skin phototype, tanning and burning ability, and presence of freckling or melanocytic nevi. We included 29 studies from 2236 initially identified. We calculated summary odds ratios (ORs) using weighted averages of the log OR, using random effects models. Results: We found strongest associations with red hair (OR 2.02; 95% CI: 1.68, 2.44), fair skin colour (OR 2.11; 95% CI: 1.56, 2.86), and having skin that burns and never tans (OR 2.03; 95% CI: 1.73, 2.38). All other factors had weaker but positive associations with BCC, with the exception of freckling of the face in adulthood which showed no association. Conclusions: Although most studies report risk estimates that are in the same direction, there is significant heterogeneity in the size of the estimates. The associations were quite modest and remarkably similar, with ORs between about 1.5 and 2.5 for the highest risk level for each factor. Given the public health impact of BCC, this meta-analysis will make a valuable contribution to our understanding of BCC.

Phenotypic changes in artemisinin-resistant plasmodium falciparum lines in vitro: evidence for decreased sensitivity to dormancy and growth inhibition

The appearance of Plasmodium falciparum parasites with decreased in vivo sensitivity but no measurable in vitro resistance to artemisinin has raised the urgent need to characterize the artemisinin resistance phenotype. Changes in the temporary growth arrest (dormancy) profile of parasites may be one aspect of this phenotype. In this study, we investigated the link between dormancy and resistance, using artelinic acid (AL)-resistant parasites. Our results demonstrate that the AL resistance phenotype has (i) decreased sensitivity of mature-stage parasites, (ii) decreased sensitivity of the ring stage to the induction of dormancy, and (iii) a faster recovery from dormancy.

Temperature sensitivity in Indigenous Australians

"To the Editor: Indigenous people face challenges that may make them more sensitive to extreme temperatures. These include poor health, inadequate infrastructure, and poverty.1 Few studies have examined the effects of extreme temperatures on Indigenous people2 or have considered the possible role of body mass in sensitivity to extreme temperatures..."

Rethinking cultural sensitivity

The concept of cultural sensitivity is located within the tradition of anthropology and the history of colonisation and immigration in Australian society. This history provides a basis for examining the largely uncritical introduction of cultural considerations to the discipline of nursing. This paper argues that contemporary understandings of multiculturalism in nursing and health care policy tend to obscure, ignore and thus perpetuate notions of racial superiority. Recent works in transcultural nursing are med to illustrate the way in which ahistorical and therefore quite arbitrary traits are attributed to particular cultural groups. This perspective, given legitimacy in terms of cultural sensitivity, encourages political neutrality and thereby avoids questioning the discriminatory practices embedded in fundamental social relations.

Rethinking cultural sensitivity : a response to criticism

We welcome Olga Kanitsaki’s comments on our paper ‘Rethinking cultural sensitivity’ (Nursing Inquiry 1996 3: 3-10) and appreciate the opportunity to respond. The main point we seek to emphasize here is the fundamental difference between our position and that of Kanitsaki. Our analysis is based on the recognition that the term ‘culture’ is historically and politically grounded. Its meaning changes over time and its contemporary usage (and popularity) thus demands explanation. The analytical task we undertook in our work was to emphasize the politics of culture rather than posing the political as one of a number of cultural dimensions (alongside the social, religious or technological)...

Clinical and radiographic outcomes of acetabular impaction grafting without cage reinforcement for revision hip replacement : a minimum ten-year follow-up study

Impaction bone grafting for reconstitution of bone stock in revision hip surgery has been used for nearly 30 years. We used this technique, in combination with a cemented acetabular component, in the acetabula of 304 hips in 292 patients revised for aseptic loosening between 1995 and 2001. The only additional supports used were stainless steel meshes placed against the medial wall or laterally around the acetabular rim to contain the graft. All Paprosky grades of defect were included. Clinical and radiographic outcomes were collected in surviving patients at a minimum of 10 years following the index operation. Mean follow-up was 12.4 years (SD 1.5; range 10.0-16.0). Kaplan-Meier survivorship with revision for aseptic loosening as the endpoint was 85.9% (95% CI 81.0 to 90.8%) at 13.5 years. Clinical scores for pain relief remained satisfactory, and there was no difference in clinical scores between cups that appeared stable and those that appeared loose radiographically.

Testosterone reinforcement : intravenous and intracerebroventricular self-administration in male rats and hamsters

Rationale: Anabolic steroids are drugs of abuse. However, the potential for addiction remains unclear. Testosterone induces conditioned place preference in rats and oral self-administration in hamsters. Objectives: To determine if male rats and hamsters consume testosterone by intravenous (IV) or intracerebroventricular (ICV) self- administration. Methods: With each nose-poke in the active hole during daily 4-h tests in an operant condi- tioning chamber, gonad-intact adult rats and hamsters received 50 mg testosterone in an aqueous solution of b-cyclodextrin via jugular cannula. The inactive nose- poke hole served as a control. Additional hamsters received vehicle infusions. Results: Rats (n=7) expressed a significant preference for the active nose-poke hole (10.0€2.8 responses/4 h) over the inactive hole (4.7€1.2 responses/4 h). Similarly, during 16 days of testosterone self-administration IV, hamsters (n=9) averaged 11.7€2.9 responses/4 h and 6.3€1.1 responses/4 h in the active and inactive nose-poke holes, respectively. By contrast, vehicle controls (n=8) failed to develop a preference for the active nose-poke hole (6.5€0.5 and 6.4€0.3 responses/4 h). Hamsters (n=8) also self-administered 1 mg testosterone ICV (active hole:39.8€6.0 nose-pokes/ 4 h; inactive hole: 22.6€7.1 nose-pokes/4 h). When testosterone was replaced with vehicle, nose-poking in the active hole declined from 31.1€7.6 to 11.9€3.2 responses/ 4 h within 6 days. Likewise, reversing active and inactive holes increased nose-poking in the previously inactive hole from 9.1€1.9 to 25.6€5.4 responses/4 h. However, reducing the testosterone dose from 1 mg to 0.2 mg per 1 ml injection did not change nose-poking. Conclu- sions: Compared with other drugs of abuse, testosterone reinforcement is modest. Nonetheless, these data support the hypothesis that testosterone is reinforcing.

Food reward sensitivity predicts overconsumption of high-fat snack food

Overconsumption of snack foods has been linked to rising rates of obesity, with our ‘obesogenic’ environment and its abundance of palatable, high-calorie foods and associated cues especially implicated. However, it is clear that some individuals are particularly susceptible to overconsumption and weight gain. It was hypothesised that individuals sensitive to the rewarding properties of palatable foods, and associated stimuli, would show elevated consumption. Snack food intake was measured in 50 adults (mean age 34.5 years, BMI 23.9 kg/m2, 56% female) in a repeated measures design, both with and without a ‘food cue’. Trait (BIS/BAS scales), behavioural (computerised CARROT) and food reward were assessed. Sensitivity to food reward, but not generalised reward, was positively associated with snack food intake. This relationship was not affected by the presence of a food cue. Findings are discussed in the context of implications for weight management.

TNF and TNF receptor expression and insulin sensitivity in human omental and subcutaneous adipose tissue--influence of BMI and adipose distribution

Tumour necrosis factor (TNF)alpha is implicated in the relationship between obesity and insulin resistance/ type 2 diabetes. In an effort to understand this association better we (i) profiled gene expression patterns of TNF, TNFR1 and TNFR2 and (ii) investigated the effects of TNF on glucose uptake in isolated adipocytes and adipose tissue explants from omental and subcutaneous depots from lean, overweight and obese individuals. TNF expression correlated with expression of TNFR2, but not TNFR1, and TNF and TNFR2 expression increased in obesity. TNFR1 expression was higher in omental than in subcutaneous adipocytes. Expression levels of TNF or either receptor did not differ between adipocytes from individuals with central and peripheral obesity. TNF only suppressed glucose uptake in insulin-stimulated subcutaneous tissue and this suppression was only observed in tissue from lean subjects. These data support a relationship between the TNF system and body mass index (BMI), but not fat distribution, and suggest depot specificity of the TNF effect on glucose uptake. Furthermore, adipose tissue from obese subjects already appears insulin 'resistant' and this may be a result of the increased TNF levels.

A simple model for the establishment of tick-borne pathogens of Ixodes scapularis : a global sensitivity analysis of R0

The basic reproduction number of a pathogen, R 0, determines whether a pathogen will spread (R0>1R 0>1), when introduced into a fully susceptible population or fade out (R0<1R 0<1), because infected hosts do not, on average, replace themselves. In this paper we develop a simple mechanistic model for the basic reproduction number for a group of tick-borne pathogens that wholly, or almost wholly, depend on horizontal transmission to and from vertebrate hosts. This group includes the causative agent of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi, and the causative agent of human babesiosis, Babesia microti, for which transmission between co-feeding ticks and vertical transmission from adult female ticks are both negligible. The model has only 19 parameters, all of which have a clear biological interpretation and can be estimated from laboratory or field data. The model takes into account the transmission efficiency from the vertebrate host as a function of the days since infection, in part because of the potential for this dynamic to interact with tick phenology, which is also included in the model. This sets the model apart from previous, similar models for R0 for tick-borne pathogens. We then define parameter ranges for the 19 parameters using estimates from the literature, as well as laboratory and field data, and perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model. This enables us to rank the importance of the parameters in terms of their contribution to the observed variation in R0. We conclude that the transmission efficiency from the vertebrate host to Ixodes scapularis ticks, the survival rate of Ixodes scapularis from fed larva to feeding nymph, and the fraction of nymphs finding a competent host, are the most influential factors for R0. This contrasts with other vector borne pathogens where it is usually the abundance of the vector or host, or the vector-to-host ratio, that determine conditions for emergence. These results are a step towards a better understanding of the geographical expansion of currently emerging horizontally transmitted tick-borne pathogens such as Babesia microti, as well as providing a firmer scientific basis for targeted use of acaricide or the application of wildlife vaccines that are currently in development.