Predicting delay reductions from freeway traffic diversion for incident management

Traffic incidents are a major source of traffic congestion on freeways. Freeway traffic diversion using pre-planned alternate routes has been used as a strategy to reduce traffic delays due to major traffic incidents. However, it is not always beneficial to divert traffic when an incident occurs. Route diversion may adversely impact traffic on the alternate routes and may not result in an overall benefit. This dissertation research attempts to apply Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) techniques to predict the percent of delay reduction from route diversion to help determine whether traffic should be diverted under given conditions. The DYNASMART-P mesoscopic traffic simulation model was applied to generate simulated data that were used to develop the ANN and SVR models. A sample network that comes with the DYNASMART-P package was used as the base simulation network. A combination of different levels of incident duration, capacity lost, percent of drivers diverted, VMS (variable message sign) messaging duration, and network congestion was simulated to represent different incident scenarios. The resulting percent of delay reduction, average speed, and queue length from each scenario were extracted from the simulation output. The ANN and SVR models were then calibrated for percent of delay reduction as a function of all of the simulated input and output variables. The results show that both the calibrated ANN and SVR models, when applied to the same location used to generate the calibration data, were able to predict delay reduction with a relatively high accuracy in terms of mean square error (MSE) and regression correlation. It was also found that the performance of the ANN model was superior to that of the SVR model. Likewise, when the models were applied to a new location, only the ANN model could produce comparatively good delay reduction predictions under high network congestion level.

Predicting delay reductions from freeway traffic diversion for incident management

Traffic incidents are a major source of traffic congestion on freeways. Freeway traffic diversion using pre-planned alternate routes has been used as a strategy to reduce traffic delays due to major traffic incidents. However, it is not always beneficial to divert traffic when an incident occurs. Route diversion may adversely impact traffic on the alternate routes and may not result in an overall benefit. This dissertation research attempts to apply Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) techniques to predict the percent of delay reduction from route diversion to help determine whether traffic should be diverted under given conditions. The DYNASMART-P mesoscopic traffic simulation model was applied to generate simulated data that were used to develop the ANN and SVR models. A sample network that comes with the DYNASMART-P package was used as the base simulation network. A combination of different levels of incident duration, capacity lost, percent of drivers diverted, VMS (variable message sign) messaging duration, and network congestion was simulated to represent different incident scenarios. The resulting percent of delay reduction, average speed, and queue length from each scenario were extracted from the simulation output. The ANN and SVR models were then calibrated for percent of delay reduction as a function of all of the simulated input and output variables. The results show that both the calibrated ANN and SVR models, when applied to the same location used to generate the calibration data, were able to predict delay reduction with a relatively high accuracy in terms of mean square error (MSE) and regression correlation. It was also found that the performance of the ANN model was superior to that of the SVR model. Likewise, when the models were applied to a new location, only the ANN model could produce comparatively good delay reduction predictions under high network congestion level.

The changes in pain which mediate Reductions in fatigue likely reflect central not peripheral mechanisms : Results from the BSRBR-RA

Peer reviewed

Exploring the scope of asymmetric synthesis of β-Hydroxy-γ-lactams via Noyori-type reductions

Enantio- and diastereoselective hydrogenation of β-keto-γ-lactams with a ruthenium–BINAP catalyst, involving dynamic kinetic resolution, has been employed to provide a general, asymmetric approach to β-hydroxy-γ-lactams, a structural motif common to several bioactive compounds. Full conversion to the desired β-hydroxy-γ-lactams was achieved with high diastereoselectivity (up to >98% de) by addition of catalytic HCl and LiCl, while β-branching of the ketone substituent demonstrated a pronounced effect on the modest to excellent enantioselectivity (up to 97% ee) obtained.

New dimeric supramolecular structure of mixed (phthalocyaninato)(porphyrinato)-europium(III) sandwiches : preparation and spectroscopic characteristics

The mixed double-decker Eu\[Pc(15C5)4](TPP) (1) was obtained by base-catalysed tetramerisation of 4,5-dicyanobenzo-15-crown-5 using the half-sandwich complex Eu(TPP)(acac) (acac = acetylacetonate), generated in situ, as the template. For comparative studies, the mixed triple-decker complexes Eu2\[Pc(15C5)4](TPP)2 (2) and Eu2\[Pc(15C5)4]2(TPP) (3) were also synthesised by the raise-by-one-story method. These mixed ring sandwich complexes were characterised by various spectroscopic methods. Up to four one-electron oxidations and two one-electron reductions were revealed by cyclic voltammetry (CV) and differential pulse voltammetry (DPV). As shown by electronic absorption and infrared spectroscopy, supramolecular dimers (SM1 and SM3) were formed from the corresponding double-decker 1 and triple-decker 3 in the presence of potassium ions in MeOH/CHCl3.

Electrochemistry of Heteroleptic Tris(phthalocyaninato) Rare Earth(III) Complexes

The electrochemical characteristics of a series of heteroleptic tris(phthalocyaninato) complexes with identical rare earths or mixed rare earths (Pc)M(OOPc)M(OOPc) [M = Eu...Lu, Y; H2Pc = unsubstituted phthalocyanine, H2(OOPc) = 3,4,12,13,21,22,30,31-octakis(octyloxy)phthalocyanine] and (Pc)Eu(OOPc)Er(OOPc) have been recorded and studied comparatively by cyclic voltammetry (CV) and differential pulse voltammetry (DPV) in CH2Cl2 containing 0.1 M tetrabutylammonium perchlorate (TBAP). Up to five quasi-reversible one-electron oxidations and four one-electron reductions have been revealed. The half-wave potentials of the first, second and fifth oxidations depend on the size of the metal center, but the fifth changes in the opposite direction to that of the first two. Moreover, the difference in redox potentials of the first oxidation and first reduction for (Pc)M(OOPc)M(OOPc), 0.85−0.98 V, also decreases linearly along with decreasing rare earth ion radius, clearly showing the rare earth ion size effect and indicating enhanced π−π interactions in the triple-deckers connected by smaller lanthanides. This order follows the red-shift seen in the lowest energy band of triple-decker compounds. The electronic differences between the lanthanides and yttrium are more apparent for triple-decker sandwich complexes than for the analogous double-deckers. By comparing triple-decker, double-decker and mononuclear [ZnII] complexes containing the OOPc ligand, the HOMO−LUMO gap has been shown to contract approximately linearly with the number of stacked phthalocyanine ligands.

Comparative Electrochemical Study of Unsubstituted and Substituted Bis(phthalocyaninato) Rare Earth(III) Complexes

The electrochemistry of homoleptic substituted phthalocyaninato rare earth double-decker complexes M(TBPc)2 and M(OOPc)2 [M = Y, La...Lu except Pm; H2TBPc = 3(4),12(13),21(22),30(31)-tetra-tert-butylphthalocyanine, H2OOPc = 3,4,12,13,21,22,30,31-octakis(octyloxy)phthalocyanine] has been comparatively studied by cyclic voltammetry (CV) and differential pulse voltammetry (DPV) in CH2Cl2 containing 0.1 M tetra-n-butylammonium perchlorate (TBAP). Two quasi-reversible one-electron oxidations and three or four quasi-reversible one-electron reductions have been revealed for these neutral double-deckers of two series of substituted complexes, respectively. For comparison, unsubstituted bis(phthalocyaninato) rare earth analogues M(Pc)2 (M = Y, La...Lu except Pm; H2Pc = phthalocyanine) have also been electrochemically investigated. Two quasi-reversible one-electron oxidations and up to five quasi-reversible one-electron reductions have been revealed for these neutral double-decker compounds. The three bis(phthalocyaninato)cerium compounds display one cerium-centered redox wave between the first ligand-based oxidation and reduction. The half-wave potentials of the first and second oxidations and first reduction for double-deckers of the tervalent rare earths depend on the size of the metal center. The difference between the redox potentials of the second and third reductions for MIII(Pc)2, which represents the potential difference between the first oxidation and first reduction of [MIII(Pc)2]−, lies in the range 1.08−1.37 V and also gradually diminishes along with the lanthanide contraction, indicating enhanced π−π interactions in the double-deckers connected by the smaller, lanthanides. This corresponds well with the red-shift of the lowest energy band observed in the electronic absorption spectra of reduced double-decker [MIII(Pc′)2]− (Pc′ = Pc, TBPc, OOPc).

Effectiveness of WSUD in the ‘real world’

Many urban developments are implementing Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) strategies to attenuate flows and decrease pollutant loads carried by stormwater runoff. A water quality monitoring project was undertaken at the residential development of ‘Coomera Waters’ on the Gold Coast in Queensland to assess the effectiveness of a bioretention swale, a constructed wetland and a bioretention basin in treating stormwater runoff before it enters protected Melaleuca wetlands. This paper compares the effectiveness of these WSUD devices in reducing flow frequency, peak flow, and stormwater volume leaving the WSUD systems. The pollutant loads reductions are also described and the concentrations of pollutants are compared to the trigger values derived from the ANZECC (2000) Guidelines.

Space-time variation of malaria incidence in Yunnan province, China

Abstract Background Understanding spatio-temporal variation in malaria incidence provides a basis for effective disease control planning and monitoring. Methods Monthly surveillance data between 1991 and 2006 for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria across 128 counties were assembled for Yunnan, a province of China with one of the highest burdens of malaria. County-level Bayesian Poisson regression models of incidence were constructed, with effects for rainfall, maximum temperature and temporal trend. The model also allowed for spatial variation in county-level incidence and temporal trend, and dependence between incidence in June–September and the preceding January–February. Results Models revealed strong associations between malaria incidence and both rainfall and maximum temperature. There was a significant association between incidence in June–September and the preceding January–February. Raw standardised morbidity ratios showed a high incidence in some counties bordering Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam, and counties in the Red River valley. Clusters of counties in south-western and northern Yunnan were identified that had high incidence not explained by climate. The overall trend in incidence decreased, but there was significant variation between counties. Conclusion Dependence between incidence in summer and the preceding January–February suggests a role of intrinsic host-pathogen dynamics. Incidence during the summer peak might be predictable based on incidence in January–February, facilitating malaria control planning, scaled months in advance to the magnitude of the summer malaria burden. Heterogeneities in county-level temporal trends suggest that reductions in the burden of malaria have been unevenly distributed throughout the province.

CSI Lincoln : an investigation into a declining housing market

The residential property market in New Zealand has been experiencing a boom and bubble period from 2001 through to mid 2007. Following a number of increases in the Official Cash Rate by the Reserve Bank and a decline in net migration numbers the housing market was perceived to be over inflated and due for a major correction. Numerous media, Government Departments, property experts and economists have been predicting significant reductions in the median price of residential property throughout New Zealand. This paper will analyse house prices in specific socio-economic locations within Christchurch over the past 12 months to determine how significant the current housing decline is. This study will review the change in residential property prices, variations in property listings since April 2008, sale volumes and days on the market across a range of housing sectors to determine the extent and range of any residential property downturn in the NZ recession.

Neurocognitive profiles of people with comorbid depression and alcohol use : implications for psychological interventions

Depression and alcohol use disorders frequently co-occur and are highly prevalent. Both conditions are known to impair cognitive functioning, yet research into the role of these impairments in response to Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CBT) is limited. The purpose of the present study was to examine the relationship between baseline neuropsychological performance, severity of depressive symptoms and alcohol use disorders. Participants with current depression and hazardous alcohol use were functioning in the average range on all neuropsychological measures prior to treatment entry. Baseline measures of drinking severity and a range of cognitive functions were inversely correlated. After controlling for other baseline variables, superior baseline cognitive functioning predicted greater reductions in depression severity after 17 weeks. These predictive effects occurred across both brief and extended interventions. Findings suggest that improvement in depression following psychological treatment is enhanced by greater fluid reasoning ability and is predicted by executive functioning, regardless of the treatment length or problem focus.

Dopamine and visually regulated eye growth in chick

Retinal image properties such as contrast and spatial frequency play important roles in the development of normal vision. For example, visual environments comprised solely of low contrast and/or low spatial frequencies induce myopia. The visual image is processed by the retina and it then locally controls eye growth. In terms of the retinal neurotransmitters that link visual stimuli to eye growth, there is strong evidence to suggest involvement of the retinal dopamine (DA) system. For example, effectively increasing retinal DA levels by using DA agonists can suppress the development of form-deprivation myopia (FDM). However, whether visual feedback controls eye growth by modulating retinal DA release, and/or some other factors, is still being elucidated. This thesis is chiefly concerned with the relationship between the dopaminergic system and retinal image properties in eye growth control. More specifically, whether the amount of retinal DA release reduces as the complexity of the image degrades was determined. For example, we investigated whether the level of retinal DA release decreased as image contrast decreased. In addition, the effects of spatial frequency, spatial energy distribution slope, and spatial phase on retinal DA release and eye growth were examined. When chicks were 8-days-old, a cone-lens imaging system was applied monocularly (+30 D, 3.3 cm cone). A short-term treatment period (6 hr) and a longer-term treatment period (4.5 days) were used. The short-term treatment tests for the acute reduction in DA release by the visual stimulus, as is seen with diffusers and lenses, whereas the 4.5 day point tests for reduction in DA release after more prolonged exposure to the visual stimulus. In the contrast study, 1.35 cyc/deg square wave grating targets of 95%, 67%, 45%, 12% or 4.2% contrast were used. Blank (0% contrast) targets were included for comparison. In the spatial frequency study, both sine and square wave grating targets with either 0.017 cyc/deg and 0.13 cyc/deg fundamental spatial frequencies and 95% contrast were used. In the spectral slope study, 30% root-mean-squared (RMS) contrast fractal noise targets with spectral fall-off of 1/f0.5, 1/f and 1/f2 were used. In the spatial alignment study, a structured Maltese cross (MX) target, a structured circular patterned (C) target and the scrambled versions of these two targets (SMX and SC) were used. Each treatment group comprised 6 chicks for ocular biometry (refraction and ocular dimension measurement) and 4 for analysis of retinal DA release. Vitreal dihydroxyphenylacetic acid (DOPAC) was analysed through ion-paired reversed phase high performance liquid chromatography with electrochemical detection (HPLC-ED), as a measure of retinal DA release. For the comparison between retinal DA release and eye growth, large reductions in retinal DA release possibly due to the decreased light level inside the cone-lens imaging system were observed across all treated eyes while only those exposed to low contrast, low spatial frequency sine wave grating, 1/f2, C and SC targets had myopic shifts in refraction. Amongst these treatment groups, no acute effect was observed and longer-term effects were only found in the low contrast and 1/f2 groups. These findings suggest that retinal DA release does not causally link visual stimuli properties to eye growth, and these target induced changes in refractive development are not dependent on the level of retinal DA release. Retinal dopaminergic cells might be affected indirectly via other retinal cells that immediately respond to changes in the image contrast of the retinal image.

Mailed treatment to augment primary care for alcohol disorders : a randomised controlled trial

Introduction and Aims: Remote delivery of interventions is needed to address large numbers of people with alcohol use disorders who are spread over large areas. Previous correspondence trials typically examined its effects as stand-alone treatment. This study aimed to test whether adding postal treatment to general practitioner (GP) support would lower alcohol use more than GP intervention alone. Design and Methods: A single-blind, randomised controlled trial with a crossover design was conducted over 12 months on 204 people with alcohol use disorders. Participants in an immediate correspondence condition received treatment over the first 3 months; those receiving delayed treatment received it in months 3–6. Results: Few participants were referred from GPs, and little intervention was offered by them. At 3 months, 78% of participants remained in the study. Those in immediate treatment showed greater reductions in alcohol per week, drinking days, anxiety, depression and distress than those in the delayed condition. However, post-treatment and follow-up outcomes still showed elevated alcohol use, depression, anxiety and distress. Greater baseline anxiety predicted better alcohol outcomes, although more mental distress at baseline predicted dropout. Discussion and Conclusions: The study gave consistent results with those from previous research on correspondence treatments, and showed that high levels of participant engagement over 3 months can be obtained. Substantial reductions in alcohol use are seen, with indications that they are well maintained. However, many participants continue to show high-risk alcohol use and psychological distress.