Assessment of the underreporting rate of death cause data in Shandong province using capture-mark-recapture method [应用捕获再捕获方法评估山东省死因登记漏报率水平]

To evaluate the underreporting rate of death -cause data in Shandong province during 2012 to 2013 by capture -mark -recapture method and to provide the base for health strategy. Methods All counties were divided into 5 stratifications according the death rates of 2012, and 14 counties were selected, then 3 towns or streets were selected in each country, 10 villages or neighborhood committees were selected in each town （street）. The death data collected from security bureau and civil affairs bureau were compared with the reporting death data from the National Cause of Death Surveillance, and the underreporting rate was calculated. Results In present study, 6 929 death cases were collected, it was found that 1 556 cases were underreported. The death cases estimated by CMR method were 6 227 cases （95%CI: 7 593-7 651）, and the average underreporting rate was 23.15%. There were significantly differences between different stratifications （P<0.01）. The underreporting rate in 0-4 years old group was 56.93%, the male underreporting rate was 22.31% and the female underreporting rate was 24.09%. There was no significant difference between male and female groups （P>0.05）. Conclusion There is an obvious underreport in the cause of death surveillance of Shandong province, and the underreporting rates are different among the 5 stratifications. The underreporting rate is higher in 0-4 years old group, and the investigation of the death cause surveillance for young residents is not perfect in some countries. The investigation quality of the death cause surveillance should be improved, increasing the integrity of the report data and adjusting the mortalities in different stratifications for obtaining a accurate mortality in Shandong province.

Marking scallops for release and recapture

Objectives : To develop a method to mark hatchery reared saucer scallops to distinguish them from animals derived from wild populations. Outcomes achieved : Juvenile saucer scallop (Amusium balloti) shells have been successfully marked en masse using 3 chemicals, namely alizarin red S, calcein and oxytetracycline (OTC). Considering spat survival, mark quality and mark duration collectively, the most successful chemical was OTC. Scallop spat immersed for three days in 200 or 300 mg L-1 OTC resulted in good mark incorporation and high survival. Tris was an effective means of buffering pH change during OTC treatment, with no apparent adverse effects to the scallops. The marks from OTC treatment were still visible in live scallops for at least 10 months, even with exposure to natural filtered light during that period. A second discernible shell mark was added 27 days after the first with no evident toxicity to the scallops. A simulated seabed system was designed which provide marked improvements in scallop juvenile survival and growth. Advice on shell marking has been given to QSS by DPI&F, and the first commercial trials have now commenced, with initial results showing successful marking of juvenile scallops at QSS. This research will allow the industry to monitor the survival, growth and movement of specific cohorts of deployed scallops. This will provide valuable feedback to assess the value of the ranching venture, to optimise release strategies, and to develop improved species management plans.

David Dublon with his wife Paula; Dülmen, Westfahlen (Westphalia) Portraits Couples

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Interior view of the synagogue where David Dublon was cantor or rabbi; Dülmen, Germany Synagogues; Interior

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Interior view of the synagogue where David Dublon was cantor or rabbi with some of the children in the congregation; Dülmen, Germany Synagogues; Interior

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Six unidentified, youngest members of a traditional Küfer guild posing in front of their wine barrels holding the tools of their trade and glasses of wine; Bad Dürkheim Portraits Men

Handwritten description on verso addressed to Herr u. Frau Ernst Weill

Improved estimation of size-transition matrices using tag-recapture data

We derive a new method for determining size-transition matrices (STMs) that eliminates probabilities of negative growth and accounts for individual variability. STMs are an important part of size-structured models, which are used in the stock assessment of aquatic species. The elements of STMs represent the probability of growth from one size class to another, given a time step. The growth increment over this time step can be modelled with a variety of methods, but when a population construct is assumed for the underlying growth model, the resulting STM may contain entries that predict negative growth. To solve this problem, we use a maximum likelihood method that incorporates individual variability in the asymptotic length, relative age at tagging, and measurement error to obtain von Bertalanffy growth model parameter estimates. The statistical moments for the future length given an individual’s previous length measurement and time at liberty are then derived. We moment match the true conditional distributions with skewed-normal distributions and use these to accurately estimate the elements of the STMs. The method is investigated with simulated tag–recapture data and tag–recapture data gathered from the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus).

Vue Iles du Salut Dreyfus.

Handwritten list of buildings, including Dreyfuss"Case" on the Ile du Diable. On verso: "Ligue des Droits de l'Homme, Section El Affroun ALger"

Case du deporte Dreyfus Devil's Island.

Dreyfus was imprisoned in French Colony Devil's Island