Daily relative humidity projections in an Indian river basin for IPCC SRES scenarios

A two-stage methodology is developed to obtain future projections of daily relative humidity in a river basin for climate change scenarios. In the first stage, Support Vector Machine (SVM) models are developed to downscale nine sets of predictor variables (large-scale atmospheric variables) for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT) to R (H) in a river basin at monthly scale. Uncertainty in the future projections of R (H) is studied for combinations of SRES scenarios, and predictors selected. Subsequently, in the second stage, the monthly sequences of R (H) are disaggregated to daily scale using k-nearest neighbor method. The effectiveness of the developed methodology is demonstrated through application to the catchment of Malaprabha reservoir in India. For downscaling, the probable predictor variables are extracted from the (1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data set for the period 1978-2000 and (2) simulations of the third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model for the period 1978-2100. The performance of the downscaling and disaggregation models is evaluated by split sample validation. Results show that among the SVM models, the model developed using predictors pertaining to only land location performed better. The R (H) is projected to increase in the future for A1B and A2 scenarios, while no trend is discerned for B1 and COMMIT.

Analysis of large-amplitude stratospheric mountain wave event observed from the AIRS and MLS sounders over the western Himalayan region

Mountain waves in the stratosphere have been observed over elevated topographies using both nadir-looking and limb-viewing satellites. However, the characteristics of mountain waves generated over the Himalayan Mountain range and the adjacent Tibetan Plateau are relatively less explored. The present study reports on three-dimensional (3-D) properties of a mountain wave event that occurred over the western Himalayan region on 9 December 2008. Observations made by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on board the Aqua and Microwave Limb Sounder on board the Aura satellites are used to delineate the wave properties. The observed wave properties such as horizontal (lambda(x), lambda(y)) and vertical (lambda(z)) wavelengths are 276 km (zonal), 289 km (meridional), and 25 km, respectively. A good agreement is found between the observed and modeled/analyzed vertical wavelength for a stationary gravity wave determined using the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis winds. The analysis of both the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis and MERRA winds shows that the waves are primarily forced by strong flow across the topography. Using the 3-D properties of waves and the corrected temperature amplitudes, we estimated wave momentum fluxes of the order of similar to 0.05 Pa, which is in agreement with large-amplitude mountain wave events reported elsewhere. In this regard, the present study is considered to be very much informative to the gravity wave drag schemes employed in current general circulation models for this region.

Longitudinal localization of tropical intraseasonal variability

Intraseasonal time-scales play an important role in tropical variability. Two modes that contribute significantly to tropical intraseasonal variability (ISV) are the eastward-propagating MaddenJulian Oscillation (MJO), and westward-moving moist equatorial Rossby waves. This note reports on a correspondence between the longitudinal gradient of mean tropical precipitable water (PW), and the geographical regions of genesis, and convective activity, of both these large-scale tropical systems. Our finding is based on an analysis of PW from the MERRA reanalysis product. The data indicate that the mean tropical PW has a dominant wavenumber two (three) structure in longitude in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. Departures from a longitudinally homogeneous state are attributed to the influence of subtropical anticyclones, and are accentuated by monsoonal regions of both hemispheres. This mean structure results in a sharply localized longitudinal gradient of PW. Remarkably, regions with positive gradients (such as the Northern and Southern Hemisphere western Indian Ocean), i.e. they have larger PW to the east, are the very zones that are implicated in the formation, and show high levels of convective activity, of the eastward-moving MJO. On the other hand, regions with negative gradients (such as the Southern Hemisphere central Pacific) are the very regions where genesis, and maxima in variance, of westward-moving moist equatorial Rossby waves are known to occur. Apart from providing a first-order longitudinal footprint of the convective phase of these systems, this correspondence reinforces the role of the mean climatic state in tropical ISV. Copyright (c) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Assessing future rainfall projections using multiple GCMs and a multi-site stochastic downscaling model

Impact of global warming on daily rainfall is examined using atmospheric variables from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and a stochastic downscaling model. Daily rainfall at eleven raingauges over Malaprabha catchment of India and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data at grid points over the catchment for a continuous time period 1971-2000 (current climate) are used to calibrate the downscaling model. The downscaled rainfall simulations obtained using GCM atmospheric variables corresponding to the IPCC-SRES (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change - Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2 emission scenario for the same period are used to validate the results. Following this, future downscaled rainfall projections are constructed and examined for two 20 year time slices viz. 2055 (i.e. 2046-2065) and 2090 (i.e. 2081-2100). The model results show reasonable skill in simulating the rainfall over the study region for the current climate. The downscaled rainfall projections indicate no significant changes in the rainfall regime in this catchment in the future. More specifically, 2% decrease by 2055 and 5% decrease by 2090 in monsoon (HAS) rainfall compared to the current climate (1971-2000) under global warming conditions are noticed. Also, pre-monsoon (JFMAM) and post-monsoon (OND) rainfall is projected to increase respectively, by 2% in 2055 and 6% in 2090 and, 2% in 2055 and 12% in 2090, over the region. On annual basis slight decreases of 1% and 2% are noted for 2055 and 2090, respectively.

Analysis of large-amplitude stratospheric mountain wave event observed from the AIRS and MLS sounders over the western Himalayan region

Mountain waves in the stratosphere have been observed over elevated topographies using both nadir-looking and limb-viewing satellites. However, the characteristics of mountain waves generated over the Himalayan Mountain range and the adjacent Tibetan Plateau are relatively less explored. The present study reports on three-dimensional (3-D) properties of a mountain wave event that occurred over the western Himalayan region on 9 December 2008. Observations made by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on board the Aqua and Microwave Limb Sounder on board the Aura satellites are used to delineate the wave properties. The observed wave properties such as horizontal (lambda(x), lambda(y)) and vertical (lambda(z)) wavelengths are 276 km (zonal), 289 km (meridional), and 25 km, respectively. A good agreement is found between the observed and modeled/analyzed vertical wavelength for a stationary gravity wave determined using the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis winds. The analysis of both the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis and MERRA winds shows that the waves are primarily forced by strong flow across the topography. Using the 3-D properties of waves and the corrected temperature amplitudes, we estimated wave momentum fluxes of the order of similar to 0.05 Pa, which is in agreement with large-amplitude mountain wave events reported elsewhere. In this regard, the present study is considered to be very much informative to the gravity wave drag schemes employed in current general circulation models for this region.

The upper Bay of Bengal salinity structure in a high-resolution model

Salinity in the Bay of Bengal is highly heterogeneous, with extremely fresh waters found at the surface in the Northern part of the basin, and saltier waters at subsurface as well as to the south. This paper investigates the seasonal structure of sea surface salinity of the Bay in a regional high-resolution model forced by ERA-Interim reanalysis and various precipitation products. Surface circulation is believed to drive the spreading of northern Bay of Bengal fresh waters to the rest of the Indian Ocean. We first present a series of experiments to infer the sensitivity of modeled circulation to various numerical choices. Surface circulation is found to be sensitive to the horizontal resolution of the model, with the 1/12 degrees version appearing much more realistic than the 1/4 degrees version. The sidewall boundary condition is also drastically influencing the characteristics of the western boundary current simulated. We then investigate the sensitivity of the salinity response to the various precipitation products. We observe that ERA-Interim excess precipitation induces a fresh bias in the surface salinity response. Spaceborne precipitation products are more satisfactory. We then identify the pathways of the northern Bay freshwater mass, based on passive tracers experiments. Our model suggests that over timescales of a few months, vertical exchanges between the upper fresh layer and the underlying saltier layer appear to be the main export pathway for the freshwater. The horizontal circulation within the mixed layer also acts to convey fresh waters out of the Bay at these timescales, but in a lesser quantity compared to the vertical export. Beyond its intrinsic interest for the understanding of Bay of Bengal physics, this study highlights the need for a careful design of any realistic numerical model, in three key aspects: the choice of the resolution of the model, the choice of the sub-grid scale parameterizations, and the choice of the forcing fluxes. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of GODAS Using RAMA Mooring Observations from the Indian Ocean

We present a comparison of the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) five-day ocean analyses against in situ daily data from Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction (RAMA) moorings at locations 90 degrees E, 12 degrees N; 90 degrees E, 8 degrees N; 90 degrees E, 0 degrees N and 90 degrees E, 1.5 degrees S in the equatorial Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal during 2002-2008. We find that the GODAS temperature analysis does not adequately capture a prominent signal of Indian Ocean dipole mode of 2006 seen in the mooring data, particularly at 90 degrees E 0 degrees N and 90 degrees E 1.5 degrees S in the eastern India Ocean. The analysis, using simple statistics such as bias and root-mean-square deviation, indicates that standard GODAS temperature has definite biases and significant differences with observations on both subseasonal and seasonal scales. Subsurface salinity has serious deficiencies as well, but this may not be surprising considering the poorly constrained fresh water forcing, and possible model deficiencies in subsurface vertical mixing. GODAS reanalysis needs improvement to make it more useful for study of climate variability and for creating ocean initial conditions for prediction.

Development and Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Models for Monthly Precipitation

Several statistical downscaling models have been developed in the past couple of decades to assess the hydrologic impacts of climate change by projecting the station-scale hydrological variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). This paper presents and compares different statistical downscaling models that use multiple linear regression (MLR), positive coefficient regression (PCR), stepwise regression (SR), and support vector machine (SVM) techniques for estimating monthly rainfall amounts in the state of Florida. Mean sea level pressure, air temperature, geopotential height, specific humidity, U wind, and V wind are used as the explanatory variables/predictors in the downscaling models. Data for these variables are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis dataset and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global Climate Model, version 3 (CGCM3) GCM simulations. The principal component analysis (PCA) and fuzzy c-means clustering method (FCM) are used as part of downscaling model to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset and identify the clusters in the data, respectively. Evaluation of the performances of the models using different error and statistical measures indicates that the SVM-based model performed better than all the other models in reproducing most monthly rainfall statistics at 18 sites. Output from the third-generation CGCM3 GCM for the A1B scenario was used for future projections. For the projection period 2001-10, MLR was used to relate variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales. Use of MLR in linking the predictor variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales yielded better reproduction of monthly rainfall statistics at most of the stations (12 out of 18) compared to those by spatial interpolation technique used in earlier studies.

And yet it shrinks: A novel method for correcting bias in forest tree growth estimates caused by water-induced fluctuations

Accuracy in tree woody growth estimates is important to global carbon budget estimation and climate-change science. Tree growth in permanent sampling plots (PSPs) is commonly estimated by measuring stem diameter changes, but this method is susceptible to bias resulting from water-induced reversible stem shrinkage. In the absence of bias correction, temporal variability in growth is likely to be overestimated and incorrectly attributed to fluctuations in resource availability, especially in forests with high seasonal and inter-annual variability in water. We propose and test a novel approach for estimating and correcting this bias at the community level. In a 50-ha PSP from a seasonally dry tropical forest in southern India, where tape measurements have been taken every four years from 1988 to 2012, for nine trees we estimated bias due to reversible stem shrinkage as the difference between woody growth measured using tree rings and that estimated from tape. We tested if the bias estimated from these trees could be used as a proxy to correct bias in tape-based growth estimates at the PSP scale. We observed significant shrinkage-related bias in the growth estimates of the nine trees in some censuses. This bias was strongly linearly related to tape-based growth estimates at the level of the PSP, and could be used as a proxy. After bias was corrected, the temporal variance in growth rates of the PSP decreased, while the effect of exceptionally dry or wet periods was retained, indicating that at least a part of the temporal variability arose from reversible shrinkage-related bias. We also suggest that the efficacy of the bias correction could be improved by measuring the proxy on trees that belong to different size classes and census timing, but not necessarily to different species. Our approach allows for reanalysis - and possible reinterpretation of temporal trends in tree growth, above ground biomass change, or carbon fluxes in forests, and their relationships with resource availability in the context of climate change. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Remotely sensed debris thickness mapping of Bara Shigri Glacier, Indian Himalaya

Despite the important role of supraglacial debris in ablation, knowledge of debris thickness on Himalayan glaciers is sparse. A recently developed method based on reanalysis data and thermal band satellite imagery has proved to be potentially suitable for debris thickness estimation without the need for detailed field data. In this study, we further develop the method and discuss possibilities and limitations arising from its application to a glacier in the Himalaya with scarce in situ data. Surface temperature patterns are consistent for 13 scenes of Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and Landsat 7 imagery and correlate well with incoming shortwave radiation and air temperature. We use an energy-balance approach to subtract these radiation or air temperature effects, in order to estimate debris thickness patterns as a function of surface temperature. Both incoming shortwave and longwave radiation are estimated with reasonable accuracy when applying parameterizations and reanalysis data. However, the model likely underestimates debris thickness, probably due to incorrect representation of vertical debris temperature profiles, the rate of heat storage and turbulent sensible heat flux. Moreover, the uncertainty of the result was found to increase significantly with thicker debris, a promising result since ablation is enhanced by thin debris of 1-2 cm.

Antiguo Oriente: Cuadernos del Centro de Estudios de Historia del Antiguo Oriente, 2006, n° 4 (número completo)

How old is the Kingdom of Edom? A review of new evidence and recent discussion / Eveline Van Der Steen ; Piotr Bienkowski -- A problem of pedubasts? / Dan´El Kahn -- Le ciel selon l´Hymne Orphique à Ouranos et selon des textes funéraires égyptiens (PT, CT, BD): une brève comparaison préliminaire / Amanda–Alice Marvelia -- An epigraphic reanalysis of Two Stelae from Firs Intermediate Period Dendera in the Cairo Museum / Tracy Musacchio -- Mass production in Mesopotamia / Morris Silver -- Iron Age “negative” pottery: a reassessment / Juan Manuel Tebes -- The Cordage from the 2001- Season of the excavations at Berenike (Egyptian Red Sea Coast): preliminary results / André J. Veldmeijer -- Article review. Carr, David M., Writing of the Tablet of the Heart: origins of scripture and literature / Itamar Singer -- Reseñas bibliográficas -- Política editorial

Variability in the air-sea interaction patterns and timescales within the south-eastern Bay of Biscay, as observed by HF radar data

Two high-frequency (HF) radar stations were installed on the coast of the south-eastern Bay of Biscay in 2009, providing high spatial and temporal resolution and large spatial coverage of currents in the area for the first time. This has made it possible to quantitatively assess the air-sea interaction patterns and timescales for the period 2009-2010. The analysis was conducted using the Barnett-Preisendorfer approach to canonical correlation analysis (CCA) of reanalysis surface winds and HF radar-derived surface currents. The CCA yields two canonical patterns: the first wind-current interaction pattern corresponds to the classical Ekman drift at the sea surface, whilst the second describes an anticyclonic/cyclonic surface circulation. The results obtained demonstrate that local winds play an important role in driving the upper water circulation. The wind-current interaction timescales are mainly related to diurnal breezes and synoptic variability. In particular, the breezes force diurnal currents in waters of the continental shelf and slope of the south-eastern Bay. It is concluded that the breezes may force diurnal currents over considerably wider areas than that covered by the HF radar, considering that the northern and southern continental shelves of the Bay exhibit stronger diurnal than annual wind amplitudes.

Downscaling of surface moisture flux and precipitation in the Ebro Valley (Spain) using analogues and analogues followed by random forests and multiple linear regression

In this paper, reanalysis fields from the ECMWF have been statistically downscaled to predict from large-scale atmospheric fields, surface moisture flux and daily precipitation at two observatories (Zaragoza and Tortosa, Ebro Valley, Spain) during the 1961-2001 period. Three types of downscaling models have been built: (i) analogues, (ii) analogues followed by random forests and (iii) analogues followed by multiple linear regression. The inputs consist of data (predictor fields) taken from the ERA-40 reanalysis. The predicted fields are precipitation and surface moisture flux as measured at the two observatories. With the aim to reduce the dimensionality of the problem, the ERA-40 fields have been decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions. Available daily data has been divided into two parts: a training period used to find a group of about 300 analogues to build the downscaling model (1961-1996) and a test period (19972001), where models' performance has been assessed using independent data. In the case of surface moisture flux, the models based on analogues followed by random forests do not clearly outperform those built on analogues plus multiple linear regression, while simple averages calculated from the nearest analogues found in the training period, yielded only slightly worse results. In the case of precipitation, the three types of model performed equally. These results suggest that most of the models' downscaling capabilities can be attributed to the analogues-calculation stage.

Comportamento dos aterros que compõem a obra do Arco Metropolitano do Rio de Janeiro.

O presente trabalho tem como objetivo a análise do comportamento dos aterros instrumentados que compõem a obra do Arco Metropolitano do Rio de Janeiro. Os resultados da instrumentação de campo serão discutidos e retroanalisados, juntamente com dados disponíveis na literatura, buscando-se a definição de parâmetros confiáveis, representativos do comportamento da argila compressível da região em estudo. O Arco Metropolitano do Rio de Janeiro é uma rodovia projetada que servirá como ligação entre as 5 principais rodovias que cortam o município do Rio de Janeiro. Dada a magnitude da obra e a ocorrência de significativas espessuras de solos moles em alguns trechos da região, determinados aterros que compõem a rodovia foram instrumentados com placas de recalque e inclinômetros, instalados em diferentes estações de monitoramento, no intuito de avaliar os deslocamentos verticais e horizontais dos aterros durante o processo construtivo. De posse de parâmetros confiáveis, procede-se à simulação numérica do processo construtivo de um dos aterros, a partir do programa PLAXIS, de elementos finitos. Os resultados numéricos são confrontados com a instrumentação de campo (fornecida por placas de recalque) e com os resultados de previsões teóricas (teoria de adensamento unidimensional). Em projetos de aterros sobre solos compressíveis, a instrumentação geotécnica é de grande importância, pois permite acompanhar o desenvolvimento de todo o processo construtivo, e as deformações decorrentes da sobrecarga imposta pelo lançamento de camadas de aterro. A imposição de um carregamento sobre solos de alta compressibilidade e baixa resistência pode acarretar em grandes deformações ao longo do tempo, além de rupturas indesejáveis do solo de fundação. Os resultados comprovaram que a modelagem numérica mostrou-se uma ferramenta adequada para a previsão dos recalques totais e tempos de adensamento. A definição de parâmetros representativos, com base em ensaios executados em amostras de boa qualidade, é o primeiro passo para a previsão coerente da evolução dos recalques com o tempo. A retroanálise do comportamento de aterros sobre solos moles permite a reavaliação das premissas de projeto, uma vez que as limitações das teorias de análise e a dificuldade na seleção de parâmetros, muitas vezes acarretam em estimativas de recalque incoerentes com as observações de campo.

Microanálise e geoquímica em testemunhos de corais como elementos de interpretação dos impactos das forçantes naturais e antrópicas sobre a costa do Brasil

Corais pétreos são formadores de recifes. Por secretarem carbonato de cálcio pela base de seus pólipos, esses corais zooxantelados formam um exoesqueleto, composto geralmente por cristais de aragonita. Os padrões de crescimento coralinos variam desde a escala sazonal a centenária e podem ser caracterizados pela medida da taxa de crescimento, a variabilidade dos isótopos estáveis de oxigênio e carbono e pelas razões elementares Sr/Ca, Mg/Ca, U/Ca, Cd/Ca, Ra/Ca (entre outras) em seu esqueleto. Em um contexto global, os recifes cumprem importante papel como sumidouros de carbono atmosférico. Diante das evidências de um oceano mais quente na era moderna, a temperatura da superfície do mar (TSM) tem sido considerada um importante fator de controle da calcificação e crescimento coralino. Geralmente, a calcificação tende a aumentar com a elevação da TSM dentro de uma estreita faixa aceitável para o funcionamento pleno do metabolismo coralino. Neste trabalho, desenvolveu-se uma re-análise das taxas de crescimento de testemunhos de corais amostrados na costa brasileira (Salvador-Ba - Baía de Todos os Santos, Parque Nacional Marinho dos Abrolhos-Ba e Armação dos Búzios-RJ) empregando-se uma combinação de bandas de crescimento (alta e baixa densidades) auxiliado pelo método de luminescência e datação por radioisótopos de U e Th. As diferenças nas cronologias para os dois métodos variou de 1 ano para o caso de Abrolhos até 7,4 anos para Búzios (em seções específicas do testemunho). Foram analisadas variações de calcificação no esqueleto coralino e interpretadas à luz das razões Sr/Ca e U/Ca (ambos próxies da TSM), séries climáticas de AMO e PDO, e pH pelágico oceânico. Identificamos uma diminuição na taxa de calcificação do exoesqueleto no tempo estudado na amostra de Salvador de 0,4 g/cm2, e um aumento em Abrolhos de 0,4 g/cm2 e Búzios 0,3 g/cm2, exceto nos anos de 1950 ao final de 1980 e de 1910 ao final de 1930, respectivamente. Uma microtomografia de raio-X foi empregada para determinar micro-estruturas coralinas, sendo os parâmetros mais relevantes a microporosidade e a anisotropia. Para Abrolhos e Búzios, foi identificado um aumento na porosidade total do exoesqueleto, principalmente no começo de 1940 até o fim da década de 1980 e entre 1890 a 1930 respectivamente. Notou-se forte associação entre a redução do padrão de calcificação com o aumento da porosidade. Os testemunhos da espécie Siderastrea stellata coletados em Abrolhos e Búzios mostraram alta associação das razoes Sr/Ca e U/Ca com a taxa de calcificação, caracterizando uma resposta similar a de outros autores para a Grande Barreira na Austrália (DE'ATH et al., 2009) e para a região central do Mar Vermelho (CANTIN et al., 2010). Em relação as razões Ba/Ca, Salvador e Abrolhos evidenciaram variáveis que contribuíram para este aumento como a forçante de produção de petróleo e aumento populacional (economia), e TSM (oceano). Para Búzios, a TSM (oceano), produção de petróleo, aumento populacional e NDVI (economia). Após os anos de 1990, o impacto dos fatores econômicos, além das variáveis oceânicas respondem mais significativamente o aumento da razão Ba/Ca em todos os sítios quase que concomitantemente na costa brasileira.