Kernel Estimation of Rate Function for Recurrent Event Data

Recurrent event data are largely characterized by the rate function but smoothing techniques for estimating the rate function have never been rigorously developed or studied in statistical literature. This paper considers the moment and least squares methods for estimating the rate function from recurrent event data. With an independent censoring assumption on the recurrent event process, we study statistical properties of the proposed estimators and propose bootstrap procedures for the bandwidth selection and for the approximation of confidence intervals in the estimation of the occurrence rate function. It is identified that the moment method without resmoothing via a smaller bandwidth will produce curve with nicks occurring at the censoring times, whereas there is no such problem with the least squares method. Furthermore, the asymptotic variance of the least squares estimator is shown to be smaller under regularity conditions. However, in the implementation of the bootstrap procedures, the moment method is computationally more efficient than the least squares method because the former approach uses condensed bootstrap data. The performance of the proposed procedures is studied through Monte Carlo simulations and an epidemiological example on intravenous drug users.

Lava discharge rate estimates from thermal infrared satellite data at Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala

Time-averaged discharge rates (TADR) were calculated for five lava flows at Pacaya Volcano (Guatemala), using an adapted version of a previously developed satellite-based model. Imagery acquired during periods of effusive activity between the years 2000 and 2010 were obtained from two sensors of differing temporal and spatial resolutions; the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) Imager. A total of 2873 MODIS and 2642 GOES images were searched manually for volcanic “hot spots”. It was found that MODIS imagery, with superior spatial resolution, produced better results than GOES imagery, so only MODIS data were used for quantitative analyses. Spectral radiances were transformed into TADR via two methods; first, by best-fitting some of the parameters (i.e. density, vesicularity, crystal content, temperature change) of the TADR estimation model to match flow volumes previously estimated from ground surveys and aerial photographs, and second by measuring those parameters from lava samples to make independent estimates. A relatively stable relationship was defined using the second method, which suggests the possibility of estimating lava discharge rates in near-real-time during future volcanic crises at Pacaya.

Assessments and Computational Simulations in Support of a Time-Varying Mass Flow Rate Measurement Technique for Pulsatile Gas Flow

This thesis covers the correction, and verification, development, and implementation of a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model for an orifice plate meter. Past results were corrected and further expanded on with compressibility effects of acoustic waves being taken into account. One dynamic pressure difference transducer measures the time-varying differential pressure across the orifice meter. A dynamic absolute pressure measurement is also taken at the inlet of the orifice meter, along with a suitable temperature measurement of the mean flow gas. Together these three measurements allow for an incompressible CFD simulation (using a well-tested and robust model) for the cross-section independent time-varying mass flow rate through the orifice meter. The mean value of this incompressible mass flow rate is then corrected to match the mean of the measured flow rate( obtained from a Coriolis meter located up stream of the orifice meter). Even with the mean and compressibility corrections, significant differences in the measured mass flow rates at two orifice meters in a common flow stream were observed. This means that the compressibility effects associated with pulsatile gas flows is significant in the measurement of the time-varying mass flow rate. Future work (with the approach and initial runs covered here) will provide an indirect verification of the reported mass flow rate measurements.

Relation of heart rate recovery to psychological distress and quality of life in patients with chronic heart failure

BACKGROUND: Psychological distress, poor disease-specific quality of life (QoL), and reduction in vagally mediated early heart rate recovery (HRR) after exercise, all previously predicted morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). We hypothesized lower HRR with greater psychological distress and poorer QoL in CHF. DESIGN: All assessments were made at the beginning of a comprehensive cardiac outpatient rehabilitation intervention program. METHODS: Fifty-six CHF patients (mean 58+/-12 years, 84% men) completed the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale and the Minnesota Living With Heart Failure Questionnaire. HRR was determined as the difference between HR at the end of exercise and 1 min after exercise termination (HRR-1). RESULTS: Elevated levels of anxiety symptoms (P=0.005) as well as decreased levels of the Minnesota Living With Heart Failure Questionnaire total (P = 0.025), physical (P=0.026), and emotional (P=0.017) QoL were independently associated with blunted HRR-1. Anxiety, total, physical, and emotional QoL explained 11.4, 8, 7.8, and 9.0%, respectively, of the variance after controlling for covariates. Depressed mood was not associated with HRR-1 (P=0.20). CONCLUSION: Increased psychological distress with regard to elevated anxiety symptoms and impaired QoL were independent correlates of reduced HRR-1 in patients with CHF. Reduced vagal tone might explain part of the adverse clinical outcome previously observed in CHF patients in relation to psychological distress and poor disease-specific QoL.

The efficacy of psychological interventions for infertile patients: a meta-analysis examining mental health and pregnancy rate

BACKGROUND: Psychological interventions for infertile patients seek to improve mental health and increase pregnancy rates. The aim of the present meta-analysis was to examine if psychological interventions improve mental health and pregnancy rate among infertile patients. Thus, controlled studies were pooled investigating psychological interventions following the introduction of assisted reproductive treatments (ART). METHODS: The databases of Medline, PsycINFO, PSYNDEX, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library were searched to identify relevant articles published between 1978 and 2007 (384 articles). Included were prospective intervention studies on infertile patients (women and men) receiving psychological interventions independent of actual medical treatment. The outcome measures were mental health and pregnancy rate. A total of 21 controlled studies were ultimately included in a meta-analysis comparing the efficacy of psychological interventions. Effect sizes (ES) were calculated for psychological measures and risk ratios (RR) for pregnancy rate. RESULTS: The findings from controlled studies indicated no significant effect for psychological interventions regarding mental health (depression: ES 0.02, 99% CI: -0.19, 0.24; anxiety: ES 0.16, 99% CI: -0.10, 0.42; mental distress: ES 0.08, 99% CI: -0.10, 0.51). Nevertheless, there was evidence for the positive impact of psychological interventions on pregnancy rates (RR 1.42, 99% CI: 1.02, 1.96). Concerning pregnancy rates, significant effects for psychological interventions were only found for couples not receiving ART. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the absence of clinical effects on mental health measures, psychological interventions were found to improve some patients' chances of becoming pregnant. Psychological interventions represent an attractive treatment option, in particular, for infertile patients who are not receiving medical treatment.

Heart rate response determines long term exercise capacity after heart transplantation

BACKGROUND: Exercise capacity after heart transplantation (HTx) remains limited despite normal left ventricular systolic function of the allograft. Various clinical and haemodynamic parameters are predictive of exercise capacity following HTx. However, the predictive significance of chronotropic competence has not been demonstrated unequivocally despite its immediate relevance for cardiac output. AIMS: This study assesses the predictive value of various clinical and haemodynamic parameters for exercise capacity in HTx recipients with complete chronotropic competence evolving within the first 6 postoperative months. METHODS: 51 patients were enrolled in this exercise study. Patients were included when at least >6 months after HTx and without negative chronotropic medication or factors limiting exercise capacity such as significant transplant vasculopathy or allograft rejection. Clinical parameters were obtained by chart review, haemodynamic parameters from current cardiac catheterisation, and exercise capacity was assessed by treadmill stress testing. A stepwise multiple regression model analysed the proportion of the variance explained by the predictive parameters. RESULTS: The mean age of these 51 HTx recipients was 55.4 +/- 13.2 yrs on inclusion, 42 pts were male and the mean time interval after cardiac transplantation was 5.1 +/- 2.8 yrs. Five independent predictors explained 47.5% of the variance observed for peak exercise capacity (adjusted R2 = 0.475). In detail, heart rate response explained 31.6%, male gender 5.2%, age 4.1%, pulmonary vascular resistance 3.7%, and body-mass index 2.9%. CONCLUSION: Heart rate response is one of the most important predictors of exercise capacity in HTx recipients with complete chronotropic competence and without relevant transplant vasculopathy or acute allograft rejection.

Beliefs about back pain predict the recovery rate over 52 consecutive weeks

OBJECTIVES: This study examined the course of low-back pain over 52 weeks following current pain at baseline. Initial beliefs about the inevitability of the pain's negative consequences and fear avoidance beliefs were examined as potential risk factors for persistent low-back pain. METHODS: On a weekly basis over a period of one year, 264 participants reported both the intensity and frequency of their low-back pain and the degree to which it impaired their work performance. In a multilevel regression analysis, predictor variables included initial low-back pain intensity, age, gender, body mass index, anxiety/depression, participation in sport, heavy workload, time (1-52 weeks), and scores on the "back beliefs" and "fear-avoidance beliefs" questionnaires. RESULTS: The group mean values for both the intensity and frequency of weekly low-back pain, and the impairment of work performance due to such pain showed a recovery within the first 12 weeks. In a multilevel regression of 9497 weekly measurements, greater weekly low-back pain and impairment were predicted by higher levels of work-related fear avoidance beliefs. A significant interaction between time and the scores on both the work-related fear-avoidance and back beliefs questionnaires indicated faster recovery and pain relief over time in those who reported less fear-avoidance and fewer negative beliefs. CONCLUSIONS: Negative beliefs about the inevitability of adverse consequences of low-back pain and work-related, fear-avoidance beliefs are independent risk factors for poor recovery from low-back pain.

Independent association of sleep quality, fatigue, and vital exhaustion with platelet count in patients with a previous venous thromboembolic event

Elevated platelet count might reflect increased inflammation as an etiological factor for venous thromboembolism (VTE). Poor sleep, fatigue, and exhaustion are all associated with inflammation and are also common sequelae of chronic psychological stress that previously predicted increased risk of VTE. We hypothesized that platelet count would be high in patients with VTE who sleep poorly and who are fatigued and exhausted. We investigated 205 patients scheduled for thrombophilia work-up > or =3 months after an objectively diagnosed venous thromboembolic event. They completed the Jenkins Sleep Questionnaire to rate subjective sleep quality and the short forms of the Multidimensional Fatigue Symptom Inventory and Maastricht Vital Exhaustion Questionnaire. Platelet count was determined by a mechanical Coulter counter. Analyses controlled for age, sex, body mass index, time since the index event, and medication. After taking into account these covariates, poorer sleep quality (p = 0.001; DeltaR(2)= 0.046), high fatigue (p = 0.008; DeltaR(2)= 0.032), and vital exhaustion (p = 0.050; DeltaR(2)= 0.017) were all associated with elevated platelet count. In addition, high level of fatigue mediated the relationship between poor sleep quality and elevated platelet count (p = 0.046). Poor sleep quality, high levels of fatigue, and vital exhaustion were identified as correlates of an elevated platelet count in patients with a previous episode of VTE. Given the emerging role of inflammatory processes in VTE, the findings suggest a mechanism through which behavioral and chronic psychological stressors might contribute to incident and recurrent venous thrombotic events.

Multiple independent genetic factors at NOS1AP modulate the QT interval in a multi-ethnic population.

Extremes of electrocardiographic QT interval are associated with increased risk for sudden cardiac death (SCD); thus, identification and characterization of genetic variants that modulate QT interval may elucidate the underlying etiology of SCD. Previous studies have revealed an association between a common genetic variant in NOS1AP and QT interval in populations of European ancestry, but this finding has not been extended to other ethnic populations. We sought to characterize the effects of NOS1AP genetic variants on QT interval in the multi-ethnic population-based Dallas Heart Study (DHS, n = 3,072). The SNP most strongly associated with QT interval in previous samples of European ancestry, rs16847548, was the most strongly associated in White (P = 0.005) and Black (P = 3.6 x 10(-5)) participants, with the same direction of effect in Hispanics (P = 0.17), and further showed a significant SNP x sex-interaction (P = 0.03). A second SNP, rs16856785, uncorrelated with rs16847548, was also associated with QT interval in Blacks (P = 0.01), with qualitatively similar results in Whites and Hispanics. In a previously genotyped cohort of 14,107 White individuals drawn from the combined Atherosclerotic Risk in Communities (ARIC) and Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) cohorts, we validated both the second locus at rs16856785 (P = 7.63 x 10(-8)), as well as the sex-interaction with rs16847548 (P = 8.68 x 10(-6)). These data extend the association of genetic variants in NOS1AP with QT interval to a Black population, with similar trends, though not statistically significant at P<0.05, in Hispanics. In addition, we identify a strong sex-interaction and the presence of a second independent site within NOS1AP associated with the QT interval. These results highlight the consistent and complex role of NOS1AP genetic variants in modulating QT interval.

Genome-wide association study on dimethylarginines reveals novel AGXT2 variants associated with heart rate variability but not with overall mortality.

AIMS The purpose of this study was to identify novel genetic variants influencing circulating asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA) and symmetric dimethylarginine (SDMA) levels and to evaluate whether they have a prognostic value on cardiovascular mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS We conducted a genome-wide association study on the methylarginine traits and investigated the predictive value of the new discovered variants on mortality. Our meta-analyses replicated the previously known locus for ADMA levels in DDAH1 (rs997251; P = 1.4 × 10(-40)), identified two non-synomyous polymorphisms for SDMA levels in AGXT2 (rs37369; P = 1.4 × 10(-40) and rs16899974; P = 1.5 × 10(-38)) and one in SLC25A45 (rs34400381; P = 2.5 × 10(-10)). We also fine-mapped the AGXT2 locus for further independent association signals. The two non-synonymous AGXT2 variants independently associated with SDMA levels were also significantly related with short-term heart rate variability (HRV) indices in young adults. The major allele (C) of the novel non-synonymous rs16899974 (V498L) variant associated with decreased SDMA levels and an increase in the ratio between the low- and high-frequency spectral components of HRV (P = 0.00047). Furthermore, the SDMA decreasing allele (G) of the non-synomyous SLC25A45 (R285C) variant was associated with a lower resting mean heart rate during the HRV measurements (P = 0.0046), but not with the HRV indices. None of the studied genome-wide significant variants had any major effect on cardiovascular or total mortality in patients referred for coronary angiography. CONCLUSIONS AGXT2 has an important role in SDMA metabolism in humans. AGXT2 may additionally have an unanticipated role in the autonomic nervous system regulation of cardiac function.

Influence of Different Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Regimens on Response, Prognosis, and Complication Rate in Patients with Esophagogastric Adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND Perioperative chemotherapy improves survival in patients with advanced esophagogastric cancer, but the optimal treatment regimen remains unclear. More intensive chemotherapy may improve outcome, but also increase toxicity and complications. METHODS A total of 843 patients were included in this retrospective study and stratified in 4 groups: doublet therapy with cisplatin or oxaliplatin and 5-fluorouracil (groups A/B) or triplet therapy with additional epirubicin or taxane (groups C/D). The influence of the different neoadjuvant chemotherapy regimens on response, prognosis, and complications was assessed. RESULTS Clinical and pathological response were associated with longer overall survival (OS; p < 0.001). No significant differences regarding response or OS were found, but there was a trend toward better outcome in group D (taxane-containing triplet). In the subgroup of 669 patients with adenocarcinomas of the esophagogastric junction (AEG), patients who had received taxane-containing regimens had a significantly longer OS (p = 0.037), but taxane use was not an independent factor in multivariate analysis. Triple therapy with taxanes did not result in a higher complication rate or postoperative mortality. CONCLUSIONS Although no superior neoadjuvant chemotherapy regimen was identified for patients with esophagogastric adenocarcinoma, taxane-containing regimens should be further investigated in randomized trials, especially in patients with AEG tumors.

Failure Rate and Conductor Externalization of the Biotronik Linox / Sorin Vigila Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator Lead

BACKGROUND We observed a case of conductor externalization in a Biotronik Linox lead. OBJECTIVE To investigate lead performance of the Linox and identical Sorin Vigila lead and prevalence of conductor externalization. METHODS We compared lead performance of all Linox and Vigila leads implanted at our center (BL group; n=93) with all Boston Scientific Endotak Reliance leads (ER group; n=190) and Medtronic Sprint Quattro leads (SQ group; n=202) implanted during the same period. We screened all BL group patients for conductor externalization. RESULTS We identified 8 cases of lead failures in the BL group (index case of conductor externalization; 6 cases of non-physiological high rate sensing; one case of high voltage conductor fracture). Prospective, fluoroscopic screening of 98% of all active BL group cases revealed one additional case of conductor externalization. Median follow-up was 41, 27 and 29 months for the BL group, ER group and SQ group, respectively, lead survival 94.9%, 99.2% and 100% at 3 years, and 88%, 97.5% and 100% at 5 years (p=0.038 for BL group vs. ER group, and p=0.007 for BL group vs. SQ group by the log-rank test). Younger age at implant was an independent predictor for lead failure in the BL group (adjusted HR 0.85 [95% confidence interval 0.77-0.94]; p=0.001). CONCLUSION At our center, survival of the Linox lead is 88% at five years and significantly worse than its comparators. Conductor externalization is present in a minority of failed Linox leads. Younger age at implant is an independent predictor of Linox lead failure.

PCSK9 Plasma Concentrations Are Independent of GFR and Do Not Predict Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Decreased GFR.

BACKGROUND Impaired renal function causes dyslipidemia that contributes to elevated cardiovascular risk in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) is a regulator of the LDL receptor and plasma cholesterol concentrations. Its relationship to kidney function and cardiovascular events in patients with reduced glomerular filtration rate (GFR) has not been explored. METHODS Lipid parameters including PCSK9 were measured in two independent cohorts. CARE FOR HOMe (Cardiovascular and Renal Outcome in CKD 2-4 Patients-The Forth Homburg evaluation) enrolled 443 patients with reduced GFR (between 90 and 15 ml/min/1.73 m2) referred for nephrological care that were prospectively followed for the occurrence of a composite cardiovascular endpoint. As a replication cohort, PCSK9 was quantitated in 1450 patients with GFR between 90 and 15 ml/min/1.73 m2 enrolled in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health Study (LURIC) that were prospectively followed for cardiovascular deaths. RESULTS PCSK9 concentrations did not correlate with baseline GFR (CARE FOR HOMe: r = -0.034; p = 0.479; LURIC: r = -0.017; p = 0.512). 91 patients in CARE FOR HOMe and 335 patients in LURIC reached an endpoint during a median follow-up of 3.0 [1.8-4.1] years and 10.0 [7.3-10.6] years, respectively. Kaplan-Meier analyses showed that PCSK9 concentrations did not predict cardiovascular events in either cohort [CARE FOR HOMe (p = 0.622); LURIC (p = 0.729)]. Sensitivity analyses according to statin intake yielded similar results. CONCLUSION In two well characterized independent cohort studies, PCSK9 plasma levels did not correlate with kidney function. Furthermore, PCSK9 plasma concentrations were not associated with cardiovascular events in patients with reduced renal function.

Incident hypertension among pre-hypertensive adolescents: Evaluation of pre-hypertension as an independent risk factor among secondary school students in the Houston area

Cardiovascular disease has been the leading cause of death in the United States for over fifty years. While multiple risk factors for cardiovascular disease have been identified, hypertension is one of the most commonly recognized and treatable. Recent studies indicate that the prevalence of hypertension among children and adolescents is between 3-5%, much higher than originally estimated and likely rising due to the epidemic of obesity in the U.S. In 2004, the National High Blood Pressure Education Program Working Group on High Blood Pressure in Children and Adolescents published new guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of hypertension in this population. Included in these recommendations was the creation of a new diagnosis, pre-hypertension, aimed at identifying children at-risk for hypertension to provide early lifestyle interventions in an effort to prevent its ultimate development. In order to determine the risk associated with pre-hypertension for the development of incident HTN, a secondary analysis of a repeated cross-sectional study measuring blood pressure in Houston area adolescents from 2000 to 2007 was performed. Of 1006 students participating in the blood pressure screening on more than one occasion not diagnosed with hypertension at initial encounter, eleven were later found to have hypertension providing an overall incident rate of 0.5% per year. Incidence rates were higher among overweight adolescents–1.9% per year [IRR 8.6 (1.97, 51.63)]; students “at-risk for hypertension” (pre-hypertensive or initial blood pressure in the hypertensive range but falling on subsequent measures)–1.4% per year [IRR 4.77 (1.21, 19.78)]; and those with blood pressure ≥90th percentile on three occasions–6.6% per year [IRR 21.87 (3.40, 112.40)]. Students with pre-hypertension as currently defined by the Task Force did have an increased rate of hypertension (1.1% per year) but it did not reach statistical significance [IRR 2.44 (0.42, 10.18)]. Further research is needed to determine the morbidity and mortality associated with pre-hypertension in this age group as well as the effectiveness of various interventions for preventing the development of hypertensive disease among these at-risk individuals. ^

Regression with autocorrelated data: A study of time trend of global infant mortality rate

The infant mortality rate (IMR) is considered to be one of the most important indices of a country's well-being. Countries around the world and other health organizations like the World Health Organization are dedicating their resources, knowledge and energy to reduce the infant mortality rates. The well-known Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4), whose aim is to archive a two thirds reduction of the under-five mortality rate between 1990 and 2015, is an example of the commitment. ^ In this study our goal is to model the trends of IMR between the 1950s to 2010s for selected countries. We would like to know how the IMR is changing overtime and how it differs across countries. ^ IMR data collected over time forms a time series. The repeated observations of IMR time series are not statistically independent. So in modeling the trend of IMR, it is necessary to account for these correlations. We proposed to use the generalized least squares method in general linear models setting to deal with the variance-covariance structure in our model. In order to estimate the variance-covariance matrix, we referred to the time-series models, especially the autoregressive and moving average models. Furthermore, we will compared results from general linear model with correlation structure to that from ordinary least squares method without taking into account the correlation structure to check how significantly the estimates change.^