Quantifying the uncertainties in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions for UK wheat ethanol

Biofuels are increasingly promoted worldwide as a means for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transport. However, current regulatory frameworks and most academic life cycle analyses adopt a deterministic approach in determining the GHG intensities of biofuels and thus ignore the inherent risk associated with biofuel production. This study aims to develop a transparent stochastic method for evaluating UK biofuels that determines both the magnitude and uncertainty of GHG intensity on the basis of current industry practices. Using wheat ethanol as a case study, we show that the GHG intensity could span a range of 40-110 gCO2e MJ-1 when land use change (LUC) emissions and various sources of uncertainty are taken into account, as compared with a regulatory default value of 44 gCO2e MJ-1. This suggests that the current deterministic regulatory framework underestimates wheat ethanol GHG intensity and thus may not be effective in evaluating transport fuels. Uncertainties in determining the GHG intensity of UK wheat ethanol include limitations of available data at a localized scale, and significant scientific uncertainty of parameters such as soil N2O and LUC emissions. Biofuel polices should be robust enough to incorporate the currently irreducible uncertainties and flexible enough to be readily revised when better science is available. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Quantifying design exclusion

This part of the book aims to convince a designer that inclusive design is a realistic goal.

Quantifying the effectiveness of SiO2/Au light trapping nanoshells for thin film poly-Si solar cells

In order to enhance light absorption of thin film poly-crystalline silicon (TF poly-Si) solar cells over a broad spectral range, and quantify the effectiveness of nanoshell light trapping structure over the full solar spectrum in theory, the effective photon trapping flux (EPTF) and effective photon trapping efficiency (EPTE) were firstly proposed by considering both the external quantum efficiency of TF poly-Si solar cell and scattering properties of light trapping structures. The EPTF, EPTE and scattering spectrum exhibit different behaviors depending on the geometric size and density of nanoshells that form the light trapping layer. With an optimum size and density of SiO2/Au nanoshell light trapping layer, the EPTE could reach up to 40% due to the enhancement of light trapping over a broad spectral range, especially from 500 to 800 nm.

Quantifying intrinsic specificity: A potential complement to affinity in drug screening

We report here the investigation of a novel description of specificity in protein-ligand binding based on energy landscape theory. We define a new term, intrinsic specificity ratio (ISR), which describes the level of discrimination in binding free energies of the native basin for a protein-ligand complex from the weaker binding states of the same ligand. We discuss the relationship between the intrinsic specificity we defined here and the conventional definition of specificity. In a docking study of molecules with the enzyme COX-2, we demonstrate a statistical correspondence between ISR value and geometrical shapes of the small molecules binding to COX-2. We further observe that the known selective (nonselective) inhibitors of COX-2 have higher (lower) ISR values. We suggest that intrinsic specificity ratio may be a useful new criterion and a complement to affinity in drug screening and in searching for potential drug lead compounds.

Quantifying robustness and dissipation cost of yeast cell cycle network: The funneled energy landscape perspectives

We study the origin of robustness of yeast cell cycle cellular network through uncovering its underlying energy landscape. This is realized from the information of the steady-state probabilities by solving a discrete set of kinetic master equations for the network. We discovered that the potential landscape of yeast cell cycle network is funneled toward the global minimum, G1 state. The ratio of the energy gap between G1 and average versus roughness of the landscape termed as robustness ratio ( RR) becomes a quantitative measure of the robustness and stability for the network. The funneled landscape is quite robust against random perturbations from the inherent wiring or connections of the network. There exists a global phase transition between the more sensitive response or less self-degradation phase leading to underlying funneled global landscape with large RR, and insensitive response or more self-degradation phase leading to shallower underlying landscape of the network with small RR. Furthermore, we show that the more robust landscape also leads to less dissipation cost of the network. Least dissipation and robust landscape might be a realization of Darwinian principle of natural selection at cellular network level. It may provide an optimal criterion for network wiring connections and design.

Quantifying the kinetic paths of flexible biomolecular recognition

Biomolecular recognition often involves large conformational changes, sometimes even local unfolding. The identification of kinetic pathways has become a central issue in understanding the nature of binding. A new approach is proposed here to study the dynamics of this binding-folding process through the establishment of a path-integral framework on the underlying energy landscape. The dominant kinetic paths of binding and folding can be determined and quantified. The significant coupling between the binding and folding of biomolecules often exists in many important cellular processes. In this case, the corresponding kinetic paths of binding are shown to be intimately correlated with those of folding and the dynamics becomes quite cooperative. This implies that binding and folding happen concurrently. When the coupling between binding and folding is weak (strong), the kinetic process usually starts with significant folding (binding) first, with the binding (folding) later proceeding to the end. The kinetic rate can be obtained through the contributions from the dominant paths. The rate is shown to have a bell-shaped dependence on temperature in the concentration-saturated regime consistent with experiment. The changes of the kinetics that occur upon changing the parameters of the underlying binding-folding energy landscape are studied.

Quantifying the value of improved wind energy forecasts in a pool-based electricity market

This work illustrates the influence of wind forecast errors on system costs, wind curtailment and generator dispatch in a system with high wind penetration. Realistic wind forecasts of different specified accuracy levels are created using an auto-regressive moving average model and these are then used in the creation of day-ahead unit commitment schedules. The schedules are generated for a model of the 2020 Irish electricity system with 33% wind penetration using both stochastic and deterministic approaches. Improvements in wind forecast accuracy are demonstrated to deliver: (i) clear savings in total system costs for deterministic and, to a lesser extent, stochastic scheduling; (ii) a decrease in the level of wind curtailment, with close agreement between stochastic and deterministic scheduling; and (iii) a decrease in the dispatch of open cycle gas turbine generation, evident with deterministic, and to a lesser extent, with stochastic scheduling.

Empirical Evidence of Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Vietnam’s Stock Returns Time Series

This paper confirms presence of GARCH(1,1) effect on stock return time series of Vietnam’s newborn stock market. We performed tests on four different time series, namely market returns (VN-Index), and return series of the first four individual stocks listed on the Vietnamese exchange (the Ho Chi Minh City Securities Trading Center) since August 2000. The results have been quite relevant to previously reported empirical studies on different markets.

Quantifying data quality for clinical trials using electronic data capture.

BACKGROUND: Historically, only partial assessments of data quality have been performed in clinical trials, for which the most common method of measuring database error rates has been to compare the case report form (CRF) to database entries and count discrepancies. Importantly, errors arising from medical record abstraction and transcription are rarely evaluated as part of such quality assessments. Electronic Data Capture (EDC) technology has had a further impact, as paper CRFs typically leveraged for quality measurement are not used in EDC processes. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The National Institute on Drug Abuse Treatment Clinical Trials Network has developed, implemented, and evaluated methodology for holistically assessing data quality on EDC trials. We characterize the average source-to-database error rate (14.3 errors per 10,000 fields) for the first year of use of the new evaluation method. This error rate was significantly lower than the average of published error rates for source-to-database audits, and was similar to CRF-to-database error rates reported in the published literature. We attribute this largely to an absence of medical record abstraction on the trials we examined, and to an outpatient setting characterized by less acute patient conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Historically, medical record abstraction is the most significant source of error by an order of magnitude, and should be measured and managed during the course of clinical trials. Source-to-database error rates are highly dependent on the amount of structured data collection in the clinical setting and on the complexity of the medical record, dependencies that should be considered when developing data quality benchmarks.

Cohabitation: quantifying an equitable share

Discusses the House of Lords judgment in Stack v Dowden on the factors the courts may consider when determining whether to rebut the presumption that former cohabitees, who were registered as joint legal owners of a property, were also joint beneficial owners with equal shares in the property. [From the Legal Journals Index]

Quantifying the beneficial interests of cohabitees

Discusses entitlements to a share of the sale proceeds of the family home where partners are cohabiting but not married and the property is registered in the name of one person only. Explains the obligation to establish that a cohabitee has an equitable interest in the property under the principles of constructive or resulting trusts. Considers how the court is able to quantify the respective shares, both before and after Oxley v Hiscock. [From the Legal Journals Index]