Positive Outcomes Influence the Rate and Time to Publication, but Not the Impact Factor of Publications of Clinical Trial Results

Objectives: Publication bias may affect the validity of evidence based medical decisions. The aim of this study is to assess whether research outcomes affect the dissemination of clinical trial findings, in terms of rate, time to publication, and impact factor of journal publications. Methods and Findings: All drug-evaluating clinical trials submitted to and approved by a general hospital ethics committee between 1997 and 2004 were prospectively followed to analyze their fate and publication. Published articles were identified by searching Pubmed and other electronic databases. Clinical study final reports submitted to the ethics committee, final reports synopses available online and meeting abstracts were also considered as sources of study results. Study outcomes were classified as positive (when statistical significance favoring experimental drug was achieved), negative (when no statistical significance was achieved or it favored control drug) and descriptive (for non-controlled studies). Time to publication was defined as time from study closure to publication. A survival analysis was performed using a Cox regression model to analyze time to publication. Journal impact factors of identified publications were recorded. Publication rate was 48·4% (380/785). Study results were identified for 68·9% of all completed clinical trials (541/785). Publication rate was 84·9% (180/212) for studies with results classified as positive and 68·9% (128/186) for studies with results classified as negative (p<0·001). Median time to publication was 2·09 years (IC95 1·61-2·56) for studies with results classified as positive and 3·21 years (IC95 2·69-3·70) for studies with results classified as negative (hazard ratio 1·99 (IC95 1·55-2·55). No differences were found in publication impact factor between positive (median 6·308, interquartile range: 3·141-28·409) and negative result studies (median 8·266, interquartile range: 4·135-17·157). Conclusions: Clinical trials with positive outcomes have significantly higher rates and shorter times to publication than those with negative results. However, no differences have been found in terms of impact factor.

Equalisation with adaptive time lag

In an adaptive equaliser, the time lag is an important parameter that significantly influences the performance. Only with the optimum time lag that corresponds to the best minimum-mean-square-error (MMSE) performance, can there be best use of the available resources. Many designs, however, choose the time lag either based on preassumption of the channel or simply based on average experience. The relation between the MMSE performance and the time lag is investigated using a new interpretation of the MMSE equaliser, and then a novel adaptive time lag algorithm is proposed based on gradient search. The proposed algorithm can converge to the optimum time lag in the mean and is verified by the numerical simulations provided.

Time-lag in biological responses to landscape changes in a highly dynamic Atlantic forest region

Time-lagged responses of biological variables to landscape modifications are widely recognized, but rarely considered in ecological studies. In order to test for the existence of time-lags in the response of trees, small mammals, birds and frogs to changes in fragment area and connectivity, we studied a fragmented and highly dynamic landscape in the Atlantic forest region. We also investigated the biological correlates associated with differential responses among taxonomic groups. Species richness and abundance for four taxonomic groups were measured in 21 secondary forest fragments during the same period (2000-2002), following a standardized protocol. Data analyses were based on power regressions and model selection procedures. The model inputs included present (2000) and past (1962, 1981) fragment areas and connectivity, as well as observed changes in these parameters. Although past landscape structure was particularly relevant for trees, all taxonomic groups (except small mammals) were affected by landscape dynamics, exhibiting a time-lagged response. Furthermore, fragment area was more important for species groups with lower dispersal capacity, while species with higher dispersal ability had stronger responses to connectivity measures. Although these secondary forest fragments still maintain a large fraction of their original biodiversity, the delay in biological response combined with high rates of deforestation and fast forest regeneration imply in a reduction in the average age of the forest. This also indicates that future species losses are likely, especially those that are more strictly-forest dwellers. Conservation actions should be implemented to reduce species extinction, to maintain old-growth forests and to favour the regeneration process. Our results demonstrate that landscape history can strongly affect the present distribution pattern of species in fragmented landscapes, and should be considered in conservation planning. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODEL FOR CONSTRAINED DISTRIBUTED LAG FUNCTIONS: ESTIMATING THE TIME COURSE OF HOSPITALIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH AIR POLLUTION EXPOSURE

Numerous time series studies have provided strong evidence of an association between increased levels of ambient air pollution and increased levels of hospital admissions, typically at 0, 1, or 2 days after an air pollution episode. An important research aim is to extend existing statistical models so that a more detailed understanding of the time course of hospitalization after exposure to air pollution can be obtained. Information about this time course, combined with prior knowledge about biological mechanisms, could provide the basis for hypotheses concerning the mechanism by which air pollution causes disease. Previous studies have identified two important methodological questions: (1) How can we estimate the shape of the distributed lag between increased air pollution exposure and increased mortality or morbidity? and (2) How should we estimate the cumulative population health risk from short-term exposure to air pollution? Distributed lag models are appropriate tools for estimating air pollution health effects that may be spread over several days. However, estimation for distributed lag models in air pollution and health applications is hampered by the substantial noise in the data and the inherently weak signal that is the target of investigation. We introduce an hierarchical Bayesian distributed lag model that incorporates prior information about the time course of pollution effects and combines information across multiple locations. The model has a connection to penalized spline smoothing using a special type of penalty matrix. We apply the model to estimating the distributed lag between exposure to particulate matter air pollution and hospitalization for cardiovascular and respiratory disease using data from a large United States air pollution and hospitalization database of Medicare enrollees in 94 counties covering the years 1999-2002.

Publication trade-offs for junior scholars in IS: conjoint analysis of preferences for quality, first authorship, collaboration and time

A publication record provides evidence of research productivity and is critical for junior scholars starting their careers in academia. Publication attributes, such as level of the publication outlet, order and number of authors, are typically used to evaluate its quality. However, time spent on a publication is a limited commodity, and researchers face significant trade-offs when deciding which publications they should concentrate on. To better understand the choices made, conjoint analysis with 241 junior IS scholars was conducted. We find that when “quality vs. number of authors” and “quality vs. time” trade-offs are considered, quality is prioritized. However, the emphasis on quality is less pronounced when “rank as an author” is at stake. Especially Ph.D. students tend to choose first authorship when dealing with “quality vs. rank as an author” trade-off. Our findings provide intriguing insights into how publication attributes weigh against each other when research collaboration decisions are made.

An historical and critical account of the science of morality, and the progress it has made in the world, from the earliest time down to the publication of Pufendorf of the law of nature and nations: in a prefatory discourse to the said work by Mr. Barbeyrac ...

Mode of access: Internet.

A descriptive catalogue of the first series of the works of the Camden society: stating the nature of their principal contents, the periods of time to which they relate, the dates of their composition, their manuscript sources, authors, and editors. Accompianied by a classified arrangement and an index, and by some illustrative particulars that have arisen since their publication.

Mode of access: Internet.

Cortical mechanisms of attention in time:neural correlates of the Lag-1-sparing phenomenon

If humans monitor streams of rapidly presented (approximately 100-ms intervals) visual stimuli, which are typically specific single letters of the alphabet, for two targets (T1 and T2), they often miss T2 if it follows T1 within an interval of 200-500 ms. If T2 follows T1 directly (within 100 ms; described as occurring at 'Lag 1'), however, performance is often excellent: the so-called 'Lag-1 sparing' phenomenon. Lag-1 sparing might result from the integration of the two targets into the same 'event representation', which fits with the observation that sparing is often accompanied by a loss of T1-T2 order information. Alternatively, this might point to competition between the two targets (implying a trade-off between performance on T1 and T2) and Lag-1 sparing might solely emerge from conditional data analysis (i.e. T2 performance given T1 correct). We investigated the neural correlates of Lag-1 sparing by carrying out magnetoencephalography (MEG) recordings during an attentional blink (AB) task, by presenting two targets with a temporal lag of either 1 or 2 and, in the case of Lag 2, with a nontarget or a blank intervening between T1 and T2. In contrast to Lag 2, where two distinct neural responses were observed, at Lag 1 the two targets produced one common neural response in the left temporo-parieto-frontal (TPF) area but not in the right TPF or prefrontal areas. We discuss the implications of this result with respect to competition and integration hypotheses, and with respect to the different functional roles of the cortical areas considered. We suggest that more than one target can be identified in parallel in left TPF, at least in the absence of intervening nontarget information (i.e. masks), yet identified targets are processed and consolidated as two separate events by other cortical areas (right TPF and PFC, respectively).

Spatial bias and temporal lag in tactile space perception

Constructing a veridical spatial map by touch poses at least two problems for a perceptual system. First, as the hand is moved through space, the locations of features may be displaced if there is an uncorrected lag between the moment the hand encounters a feature and the time that feature is encoded on a spatial map. Second, due to the sequential nature of the process, some form of memory, which itself may be subject to spatial distortions, is required for integration of spatial samples. We investigated these issues using a task involving active haptic exploration with a stylus swept back and forth in the horizontal plane at the wrist. Remembered locations of tactile targets were shifted towards the medial axis of the forearm, suggesting a central tendency in haptic spatial memory, while evidence for a displacement of perceived locations in the direction of sweep motion was consistent with processing delays.

Cell cycle model to describe animal cell size variation and lag between cell number and biomass dynamics

The use of cell numbers rather than mass to quantify the size of the biotic phase in animal cell cultures causes several problems. First, the cell size varies with growth conditions, thus yields expressed in terms of cell numbers cannot be used in the normal mass balance sense. Second, experience from microbial systems shows that cell number dynamics lag behind biomass dynamics. This work demonstrates that this lag phenomenon also occurs in animal cell culture. Both the lag phenomenon and the variation in cell size are explained using a simple model of the cell cycle. The basis for the model is that onset of DNA synthesis requires accumulation of G1 cyclins to a prescribed level. This requirement is translated into a requirement for a cell to reach a critical size before commencement of DNA synthesis. A slower gl-owing cell will spend more time in G1 before reaching the critical mass. In contrast, the period between onset of DNA synthesis and mitosis, tau(B), is fixed. The two parameters in the model, the critical size and tau(B), were determined from eight steady-state measurements of mean cell size in a continuous hybridoma culture. Using these parameters, it was possible to predict with reasonable accuracy the transient behavior in a separate shift-up culture, i.e., a culture where cells were transferred from a lean environment to a rich environment. The implications for analyzing experimental data for animal cell culture are discussed. (C) 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Beyond time and oblivion : Sir Robert Sidney’s autograph manuscript

Dealing with ancient manuscript or old printed texts often constitutes a difficult task, especially to philologists and editors, for two main reasons: the precarious state of preservation of the documents and the uncertainty regarding their origin, authenticity and authorship. These problems are aggravated by spurious versions, due to the publication of truncated works, poorly supervised miscellanies and non-authorised editions. Sir Robert Sidney’s literary text constitutes an exception amidst such vicissitudes, once the original corpus is wholly contained in a notebook exhibiting the organisation and unity conceived by the author himself. Today, there is no evidence that any loose poems, either autograph or copied by amanuenses, were in circulation among members of the Elizabethan court society. The notebook was kept in private collections for four centuries, which probably explains why it was so well preserved. In fact, only in 1984 would P.J. Croft’s fine edition bring the youngest Sidney’s Poems into light. In this work, I approach Croft’s perceptive, accurate philological study that eventually rescued from oblivion a remarkable piece both of the Elizabethan lyric poetry and of the English Renaissance, and, at the same time, look into Robert Sidney’s peculiar, careful and original formatting of his own autograph manuscript.

The effects of air pollution on cardiovascular diseases: lag structures

OBJECTIVE: To assess the lag structure between air pollution exposure and elderly cardiovascular diseases hospital admissions, by gender. METHODS: Health data of people aged 64 years or older was stratified by gender in São Paulo city, Southeastern Brazil, from 1996 to 2001. Daily levels of air pollutants (CO, PM10, O3, NO2, and SO2) , minimum temperature, and relative humidity were also analyzed. It were fitted generalized additive Poisson regressions and used constrained distributed lag models adjusted for long time trend, weekdays, weather and holidays to assess the lagged effects of air pollutants on hospital admissions up to 20 days after exposure. RESULTS: Interquartile range increases in PM10 (26.21 mug/m³) and SO2 (10.73 mug/m³) were associated with 3.17% (95% CI: 2.09-4.25) increase in congestive heart failure and 0.89% (95% CI: 0.18-1.61) increase in total cardiovascular diseases at lag 0, respectively. Effects were higher among female group for most of the analyzed outcomes. Effects of air pollutants for different outcomes and gender groups were predominately acute and some "harvesting" were found. CONLUSIONS: The results show that cardiovascular diseases in São Paulo are strongly affected by air pollution.

Real-time rheology of actively growing bacteria

The population growth of a Staphylococcus aureus culture, an active colloidal system of spherical cells, was followed by rheological measurements, under steady-state and oscillatory shear flows. We observed a rich viscoelastic behavior as a consequence of the bacteria activity, namely, of their multiplication and density-dependent aggregation properties. In the early stages of growth (lag and exponential phases), the viscosity increases by about a factor of 20, presenting several drops and full recoveries. This allows us to evoke the existence of a percolation phenomenon. Remarkably, as the bacteria reach their late phase of development, in which the population stabilizes, the viscosity returns close to its initial value. Most probably, this is caused by a change in the bacteria physiological activity and in particular, by the decrease of their adhesion properties. The viscous and elastic moduli exhibit power-law behaviors compatible with the "soft glassy materials" model, whose exponents are dependent on the bacteria growth stage. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.87.030701.