Expert judgement in the processes of commercial property market forecasting

In this paper, we investigate the role of judgement in the formation of forecasts in commercial property markets. The investigation is based on interview surveys with the majority of UK forecast producers, who are using a range of inputs and data sets to form models to predict an array of variables for a range of locations. The findings suggest that forecasts need to be acceptable to their users (and purchasers) and consequently forecasters generally have incentives to avoid presenting contentious or conspicuous forecasts. Where extreme forecasts are generated by a model, forecasters often engage in ‘self‐censorship’ or are ‘censored’ following in‐house consultation. It is concluded that the forecasting process is significantly more complex than merely carrying out econometric modelling, forecasts are mediated and contested within organisations and that impacts can vary considerably across different organizational contexts.

Expert judgement in the processes of commercial property market forecasting

In this paper we investigate the role of judgement in the formation of forecasts in commercial real estate markets. Based on interview surveys with the majority of forecast producers, we find that real estate forecasters are using a range of inputs and data sets to form models to predict an array of variables for a range of locations. The findings suggest that forecasts need to be acceptable to their users (and purchasers) and consequently forecasters generally have incentives to avoid presenting contentious or conspicuous forecasts. Where extreme forecasts are generated by a model, forecasters often engage in ‘self-censorship’ or are ‘censored’ following in-house consultation. It is concluded that the forecasting process is more complex than merely carrying out econometric modelling and that the impact of the influences within this process vary considerably across different organizational contexts.

The basis of valuations for secured commercial property lending in the UK

In the context of the financial crash and the commercial property market downturn, this paper examines the basis of valuation used in the UK commercial property lending process. Post-crisis there is discussion of countercyclical measures including the monitoring of asset prices; however there is no consideration of a different approach to property valuation. This paper questions this omission, given the role that valuations play in the bank regulatory process. The different bases of valuation available to lenders within International Valuation Standards are identified as Market Value (MV), Mortgage Lending Value (MLV) and Investment Value (IV), with MV being the most used in the UK. Using the different bases in the period before the financial crisis, the UK property market is modelled at a national office, retail and industrial/warehouse sector level to determine the performance of each alternative valuation basis within the context of counter-cyclical pressures on lending. Both MLV and IV would have produced lower valuations and could have provided lenders with tools for more informed and prudent lending. The paper concludes by recognising some of the practical issues involved in adopting the different bases for the bank lending role but recommends a change to IV.

The relevance of context in property law: a case for judicial restraint?

A distinction between the domestic and commercial context is commonly drawn in property law discourse and has been brought into focus by three recent House of Lords' decisions. The thesis of this paper is that while the distinction is a useful explanatory tool, it runs into difficulties when given legal effect by the courts. There is a definitional problem in understanding what is included within each context. Indeed, the distinction assumes the existence of a dichotomy when, in fact, the domestic and commercial spheres are better seen as a continuum. In Stack v Dowden, the majority of the House of Lords gave legal effect to context and considered that different rules should apply to determine ownership of the home. This paper locates its decision in the broader debate on judicial restraint and creativity. By analogy with current discussion of due deference in public law, it is suggested that, in light of the policy issues involved and the broader ramifications of the decision, insufficient justification was given for the approach adopted by the majority.

Measuring European property investment performance: comparing different approaches

Purpose – Price indices for commercial real estate markets are difficult to construct because assets are heterogeneous, they are spatially dispersed and they are infrequently traded. Appraisal-based indices are one response to these problems, but may understate volatility or fail to capture turning points in a timely manner. This paper estimates “transaction linked indices” for major European markets to see whether these offer a different perspective on market performance. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The assessed value method is used to construct the indices. This has been recently applied to commercial real estate datasets in the USA and UK. The underlying data comprise appraisals and sale prices for assets monitored by Investment Property Databank (IPD). The indices are compared to appraisal-based series for the countries concerned for Q4 2001 to Q4 2012. Findings – Transaction linked indices show stronger growth and sharper declines over the course of the cycle, but they do not notably lead their appraisal-based counterparts. They are typically two to four times more volatile. Research limitations/implications – Only country-level indicators can be constructed in many cases owing to low trading volumes in the period studied, and this same issue prevented sample selection bias from being analysed in depth. Originality/value – Discussion of the utility of transaction-based price indicators is extended to European commercial real estate markets. The indicators offer alternative estimates of real estate market volatility that may be useful in asset allocation and risk modelling, including in a regulatory context.

House price dynamics in Panama City

In this paper, we analyze the drivers of the housing markets in Panama City. To the best of our knowledge, no formal academic analysis has been documented on the Panamanian housing market. In this paper, we outline key unique characteristics of the market and provide a brief review of broader economic indicators and housing market literature. Using a unique dataset comprising property-level information over 2007–2014, we employ a hedonic modeling framework to analyze the impacts of certain amenities and drivers that may affect housing values. The results indicate several unique features of the Panamanian housing market.

Análise da desverticalização e das condições favoráveis à produção "in house"

Este trabalho procura compreender um ambiente de negócios bastante específico. As empresas, diante dos fenômenos da globalização e do crescimento das exigências impostas pelos consumidores (produtos melhores a preços mais baixos), buscarão diversas soluções para enfrentar estes desafios. Soluções para otimizar as suas redes de suprimentos serão uma das possíveis respostas para este problema. As redes de suprimentos, quanto mais eficazes, estarão agregando mais valor ao produto final causando um impacto mínimo nos custos do produto, e terão uma papel importante na estratégia da empresa para vencer este desafio. Ao longo dessa dissertação serão avaliadas as relações existentes entre cliente e fornecedor e focadas algumas variáveis que influenciam este relacionamento. Através da análise das estratégias de verticalização, estaremos avaliando outras possibilidades de fornecimento que possam ser mais atraentes para as empresas, no que diz respeito à gerência de sua rede de fornecedores. O trabalho está centrado na análise da estratégia de verticalização e como são criadas as condições que favorecem a desverticalização, conduzindo a empresa para a solução de fornecimento através de uma produção "in house". O setor industrial será tomado como exemplo deste tipo de relacionamento, mais especificamente, o segmento de produção de embalagens plásticas. A produção "in house" , como será descrito mais detalhadamente adiante, se estabelece da seguinte forma: uma unidade produtiva de um fornecedor estratégico é construída dentro do ambiente físico do cliente. Desse local, o fornecedor supre as necessidades do cliente de um ou diversos itens necessários para a realização da sua atividade industrial. Diversas questões serão exploradas neste trabalho, dentre elas, em que situações vale a pena manter uma operação integrada verticalmente ou optar pela terceirização desta operação, que um dia foi verticalizada? Sob que condições esta seria uma boa solução para o fornecimento de insumos básicos para a produção? Este trabalho se desenvolverá a partir de uma pesquisa bibliográfica assim como de um trabalho de campo, envolvendo a análise de diversas situações reais. vi Como identificar se a verticalização de um segmento oferecerá as vantagens esperadas? Quais são os principais fatores que devemos levar em conta para esta análise? Que tipo de modelo de desverticalização pode ser o mais adequado para a empresa cliente? Que medidas podem ser promovidas para se incrementar uma relação com o fornecedor "in house" ? Este estudo apresenta algumas propostas para responder às questões acima.

Preços de imóveis residenciais novos no Rio de Janeiro: estimação através da metodologia de preços hedônicos

Este trabalho tem por objetivo entender, no município do Rio de Janeiro, quais características são mais importantes para no mercado de imóveis residenciais novos. A abordagem de preços hedônicos foi utilizada para a elaboração deste estudo, uma vez que analisa o bem como um pacote de atributos para os quais o consumidor tem preferências. Diversos itens relacionados à caracterização do imóvel e do condomínio, bem como da localização na qual ele se insere, foram analisados. Como parte da metodologia, a econometria foi utilizada para que fosse possível compreender de que forma, e em qual proporção, as variáveis mapeadas se relacionam com o preço final do imóvel. O resultado final aponta que as variáveis mais importantes para o equilíbrio do mercado imobiliário no Rio de Janeiro são: o bairro onde o imóvel está localizado, o tamanho, número de quartos, a diferenciação entre ser apartamento ou casa e o número de unidades no condomínio.

Glycerol: Production, consumption, prices, characterization and new trends in combustion

The demand for petroleum has been rising rapidly due to increasing industrialization and modernization. This economic development has led to a huge demand for energy, most of which is derived from fossil fuel. However, the limited reserve of fossil fuel has led many researchers to look for alternative fuels which can be produced from renewable feedstock. Increasing fossil fuel prices have prompted the global oil industry to look at biodiesel, which is from renewable energy sources. Biodiesel is produced from animal fats and vegetable oils and has become more attractive because it is more environmentally friendly and is obtained from renewable sources. Glycerol is the main by-product of biodiesel production; about 10% of the weight of biodiesel is generated in glycerol. The large amount of glycerol generated may become an environmental problem, since it cannot be disposed of in the environment. In this paper, an attempt has been made to review the different approaches and techniques used to produce glycerol (hydrolysis, transesterification, refining crude glycerol). The world biodiesel/glycerol production and consumption market, the current world glycerin and glycerol prices as well as the news trends for the use of glycerol mainly in Brazil market are analyzed. The technological production and physicochemical properties of glycerol are described, as is the characterization of crude glycerol obtained from different seed oil feedstock. Finally, a simple way to use glycerol in large amounts is combustion, which is an advantageous method as it does not require any purification. However, the combustion process of crude glycerol is not easy and there are technological difficulties. The news and mainly research about the combustion of glycerol was also addressed in this review. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Diesel spray mixing limited vaporization with non-ideal and multi-component fuel thermophysical property effects

Internal combustion engines are, and will continue to be, a primary mode of power generation for ground transportation. Challenges exist in meeting fuel consumption regulations and emission standards while upholding performance, as fuel prices rise, and resource depletion and environmental impacts are of increasing concern. Diesel engines are advantageous due to their inherent efficiency advantage over spark ignition engines; however, their NOx and soot emissions can be difficult to control and reduce due to an inherent tradeoff. Diesel combustion is spray and mixing controlled providing an intrinsic link between spray and emissions, motivating detailed, fundamental studies on spray, vaporization, mixing, and combustion characteristics under engine relevant conditions. An optical combustion vessel facility has been developed at Michigan Technological University for these studies, with detailed tests and analysis being conducted. In this combustion vessel facility a preburn procedure for thermodynamic state generation is used, and validated using chemical kinetics modeling both for the MTU vessel, and institutions comprising the Engine Combustion Network international collaborative research initiative. It is shown that minor species produced are representative of modern diesel engines running exhaust gas recirculation and do not impact the autoignition of n-heptane. Diesel spray testing of a high-pressure (2000 bar) multi-hole injector is undertaken including non-vaporizing, vaporizing, and combusting tests, with sprays characterized using Mie back scatter imaging diagnostics. Liquid phase spray parameter trends agree with literature. Fluctuations in liquid length about a quasi-steady value are quantified, along with plume to plume variations. Hypotheses are developed for their causes including fuel pressure fluctuations, nozzle cavitation, internal injector flow and geometry, chamber temperature gradients, and turbulence. These are explored using a mixing limited vaporization model with an equation of state approach for thermopyhysical properties. This model is also applied to single and multi-component surrogates. Results include the development of the combustion research facility and validated thermodynamic state generation procedure. The developed equation of state approach provides application for improving surrogate fuels, both single and multi-component, in terms of diesel spray liquid length, with knowledge of only critical fuel properties. Experimental studies are coupled with modeling incorporating improved thermodynamic non-ideal gas and fuel

Multiasset Derivatives and Joint Distributions of Asset Prices

Several of multiasset derivatives like basket options or options on the weighted maximum of assets exhibit the property that their prices determine uniquely the underlying asset distribution. Related to that the question how to retrieve this distributions from the corresponding derivatives quotes will be discussed. On the contrary, the prices of exchange options do not uniquely determine the underlying distributions of asset prices and the extent of this non-uniqueness can be characterised. The discussion is related to a geometric interpretation of multiasset derivatives as support functions of convex sets. Following this, various symmetry properties for basket, maximum and exchange options are discussed alongside with their geometric interpretations and some decomposition results for more general payoff functions.

Alpine Common Property Institutions under Change: Conditions for Successful and Unsuccessful Collective Action by Alpine Farmers in the Canton of Grisons, Switzerland

The protection and sustainable management of alpine summer pastures has been stated as a goal in Swiss national law since 1996, and direct payments from the state for summer pasturing have been tied to sustainability criteria since 2000. This reflects the increasing value of the alpine cultural landscape as a public good. However, provision of this public good remains in the hands of local farmers and their local common pool resource (CPR) institutions for managing alpine pastures. These institutions are increasingly struggling to maintain their institutional arrangements, particularly regarding the work needed to maintain the pastures. This paper examines two cases of local CPR institutions for managing alpine pastures in the Swiss Canton of Grisons that manifest different institutional developments in light of changing conditions. The differences in how these institutions reacted to change and the impacts this has had on the provision of the CPR are explained by focusing on relative prices, bargaining power, and ideology as drivers of institutional change that are often neglected within common property research. Key words: summer pasture management, institutional change, bargaining power, ideology

An economic analysis of unilateral refusals to license intellectual property

The intellectual property laws in the United States provide the owners of intellectual property with discretion to license the right to use that property or to make or sell products that embody the intellectual property. However, the antitrust laws constrain the use of property, including intellectual property, by a firm with market power and may place limitations on the licensing of intellectual property. This paper focuses on one aspect of antitrust law, the so-called “essential facilities doctrine,” which may impose a duty upon firms controlling an “essential facility” to make that facility available to their rivals. In the intellectual property context, an obligation to make property available is equivalent to a requirement for compulsory licensing. Compulsory licensing may embrace the requirement that the owner of software permit access to the underlying code so that others can develop compatible application programs. Compulsory licensing may undermine incentives for research and development by reducing the value of an innovation to the inventor. This paper shows that compulsory licensing also may reduce economic efficiency in the short run by facilitating the entry of inefficient producers and by promoting licensing arrangements that result in higher prices.

A Coppe of the Plan of Cambridge New Meeting House which was excepted by the people, 1752

The floor plan details the proposed interior of the New Meeting House of the First Parish in Cambridge to be built near the College, in the present area of Lehman Hall. This land became Harvard property in 1833. The drawing includes space allotted for the pulpit, pews, and center aisle. The document is fragile.

Indenture acknowledging sale of property, Boston, 1753

Document acknowledges the sale of the late Samuel Clark's house and property to Alexander Hill. Samuel Clark's executor, James Clark, was required by law to sell the property to the highest bidder in order to pay the debts of the deceased.