The religion of ancient Britain, or, A succinct account of the several religious systems which have obtained in this island from the earliest times to the Norman conquest. Including an investigation into the early progress of error in the Christian church, the introduction of the gospel into Britain, and the state of religion in England till popery had gained the ascendancy.

Mode of access: Internet.

Probability of hurricane/tropical storm conditions : a user's guide for local decision makers /

Cover title.

Manual of federal appellate procedure; a concise and practical treatise, annotated, on all proceedings necessary to take and perfect appeals, writs of error, petitions for review in bankruptcy, petitions to review orders of Federal trade commission, Interstate commerce commission, Federal reserve boards, decisions of District court in awards of arbitration, and federal tax appeal cases and appeals in admiralty cases ...

"Appendix (p.203-292) Rules of the United States Circuit court of appeals for the Ninth circuit. Revised rules for the Supreme Court of the United States, under act of February 13, 1925, as amended June 7, 1926. Requirements respecting petitions for writs of certiorari under the act of February 13, 1925. Jurisdictional act of February 13, 1925, as amended April 3, 1926. Sections 24 and 25 of the Bankruptcy act, as amended May 28, 1926, effective August 28, 1926."

The effect of legitimate opportunities on the probability of parolee recidivism /

Prepared for the Manpower Administration, U.S. Dept. of Labor.

Statistical mechanics of error-correcting codes

We investigate the performance of error-correcting codes, where the code word comprises products of K bits selected from the original message and decoding is carried out utilizing a connectivity tensor with C connections per index. Shannon's bound for the channel capacity is recovered for large K and zero temperature when the code rate K/C is finite. Close to optimal error-correcting capability is obtained for finite K and C. We examine the finite-temperature case to assess the use of simulated annealing for decoding and extend the analysis to accommodate other types of noisy channels.

Detection of signals corrupted by the combination of Gaussian and Non-Gaussian noise

The detection of signals in the presence of noise is one of the most basic and important problems encountered by communication engineers. Although the literature abounds with analyses of communications in Gaussian noise, relatively little work has appeared dealing with communications in non-Gaussian noise. In this thesis several digital communication systems disturbed by non-Gaussian noise are analysed. The thesis is divided into two main parts. In the first part, a filtered-Poisson impulse noise model is utilized to calulate error probability characteristics of a linear receiver operating in additive impulsive noise. Firstly the effect that non-Gaussian interference has on the performance of a receiver that has been optimized for Gaussian noise is determined. The factors affecting the choice of modulation scheme so as to minimize the deterimental effects of non-Gaussian noise are then discussed. In the second part, a new theoretical model of impulsive noise that fits well with the observed statistics of noise in radio channels below 100 MHz has been developed. This empirical noise model is applied to the detection of known signals in the presence of noise to determine the optimal receiver structure. The performance of such a detector has been assessed and is found to depend on the signal shape, the time-bandwidth product, as well as the signal-to-noise ratio. The optimal signal to minimize the probability of error of; the detector is determined. Attention is then turned to the problem of threshold detection. Detector structure, large sample performance and robustness against errors in the detector parameters are examined. Finally, estimators of such parameters as. the occurrence of an impulse and the parameters in an empirical noise model are developed for the case of an adaptive system with slowly varying conditions.

Medical error:a discussion of the medical construction of error and suggestions for reforms of medical education to decrease error

Introduction: There is a growing public perception that serious medical error is commonplace and largely tolerated by the medical profession. The Government and medical establishment's response to this perceived epidemic of error has included tighter controls over practising doctors and individual stick-and-carrot reforms of medical practice. Discussion: This paper critically reviews the literature on medical error, professional socialization and medical student education, and suggests that common themes such as uncertainty, necessary fallibility, exclusivity of professional judgement and extensive use of medical networks find their genesis, in part, in aspects of medical education and socialization into medicine. The nature and comparative failure of recent reforms of medical practice and the tension between the individualistic nature of the reforms and the collegiate nature of the medical profession are discussed. Conclusion: A more theoretically informed and longitudinal approach to decreasing medical error might be to address the genesis of medical thinking about error through reforms to the aspects of medical education and professional socialization that help to create and perpetuate the existence of avoidable error, and reinforce medical collusion concerning error. Further changes in the curriculum to emphasize team working, communication skills, evidence-based practice and strategies for managing uncertainty are therefore potentially key components in helping tomorrow's doctors to discuss, cope with and commit fewer medical errors.

Application of the Heterogeneous System Prediction Method to Pattern Recognition Problem

* This work was financially supported by RFBR-04-01-00858.

Identification, distribution, and probability of infection in sympatric gastropods by digenean parasites at Pa-hay-okee, Everglades National Park using molecules and morphology

In this study, I determined the identity, taxonomic placement, and distribution of digenetic trematodes parasitizing the snails Pomacea paludosa and Planorbella duryi at Pa-hay-okee, Everglades National Park. I also characterized temporal and geographic variation in the probability of parasite infection for these snails based on two years of sampling. Although studies indicate that digenean parasites may have important effects both on individual species and the structure of communities, there have been no studies of digenean parasitism on snails within the Everglades ecosystem. For example, the endangered Everglade Snail Kite, a specialist that feeds almost exclusively on Pomacea paludosa, and is known to be a definitive host of digenean parasites, may suffer direct and indirect effects from consumption of parasitized apple snails. Therefore, information on the diversity and abundance of parasites harbored in snail populations in the Everglades should be of considerable interest for management and conservation of wildlife. Juvenile digeneans (cercariae) representing 20 species were isolated from these two snails, representing a quadrupling of the number of species known. Species were characterized based on morphological, morphometric, and sequence data (18S rDNA, COI, and ITS). Species richness of shed cercariae from P. duryi was greater than P. paludosa, with 13 and 7 species respectively. These species represented 14 families. P. paludosa and P. duryi had no digenean species in common. Probability of digenean infection was higher for P. duryi than P. paludosa and adults showed a greater risk of infection than juveniles for both of these snails. Planorbella duryi showed variation in probability of infection between sampling sites and hydrological seasons. The number of unique combinations of multi-species infections was greatest among P. duryi individuals, while the overall percentage of multi-species infections was greatest in P. paludosa. Analyses of six frequently-observed multiple infections from P. duryi suggest the presence of negative interactions, positive interactions, and neutral associations between larval digeneans. These results should contribute to an understanding of the factors controlling the abundance and distribution of key species in the Everglades ecosystem and may in particular help in the management and recovery planning for the Everglade Snail Kite.

The framework of the virtual laser tracker - A systematic approach to the assessment of error sources and uncertainty in laser tracker measurement

Laser trackers have been widely used in many industries to meet increasingly high accuracy requirements. In laser tracker measurement, it is complex and difficult to perform an accurate error analysis and uncertainty evaluation. This paper firstly reviews the working principle of single beam laser trackers and state-of- The- Art of key technologies from both industrial and academic efforts, followed by a comprehensive analysis of uncertainty sources. A generic laser tracker modelling method is formulated and the framework of the virtual tracker is proposed. The VLS can be used for measurement planning, measurement accuracy optimization and uncertainty evaluation. The completed virtual laser tracking system should take all the uncertainty sources affecting coordinate measurement into consideration and establish an uncertainty model which will behave in an identical way to the real system. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010.

Achievable rates and outage probability of cognitive radio with dynamic frequency hopping under imperfect spectrum sensing

In this study, the authors propose simple methods to evaluate the achievable rates and outage probability of a cognitive radio (CR) link that takes into account the imperfectness of spectrum sensing. In the considered system, the CR transmitter and receiver correlatively sense and dynamically exploit the spectrum pool via dynamic frequency hopping. Under imperfect spectrum sensing, false-alarm and miss-detection occur which cause impulsive interference emerged from collisions due to the simultaneous spectrum access of primary and cognitive users. That makes it very challenging to evaluate the achievable rates. By first examining the static link where the channel is assumed to be constant over time, they show that the achievable rate using a Gaussian input can be calculated accurately through a simple series representation. In the second part of this study, they extend the calculation of the achievable rate to wireless fading environments. To take into account the effect of fading, they introduce a piece-wise linear curve fitting-based method to approximate the instantaneous achievable rate curve as a combination of linear segments. It is then demonstrated that the ergodic achievable rate in fast fading and the outage probability in slow fading can be calculated to achieve any given accuracy level.

Social Influences of Error Monitoring

Adolescence is characterized by dramatic hormonal, physical, and psychological changes, and is a period of risk for affective and anxiety disorders. Pubertal development during adolescence plays a major role in the emergence of these disorders, particularly among girls. Thus, it is critical to identify early biomarkers of risk. One potential biomarker, the error-related negativity (ERN), is an event-related potential following an erroneous response. Individuals with an anxiety disorder demonstrate a greater ERN than healthy comparisons, an association which is stronger in adolescence, suggesting that pubertal development may play a role in the ERN as a predictor of anxiety. One form of anxiety often observed in adolescence, particularly among girls, is social anxiety, which is defined as anxiety elicited by social-evaluative contexts. In adults, enhancements of the ERN in social-evaluative contexts is positively related to social anxiety symptoms, suggesting that the ERN in social contexts may serve as a biomarker for social anxiety. This dissertation examined the ERN in and its relation with puberty and social anxiety among 76 adolescent girls. Adolescent girls completed a flanker task in two different

Development of error correction techniques for nitrate-N load estimation models

Excess nutrient loads carried by streams and rivers are a great concern for environmental resource managers. In agricultural regions, excess loads are transported downstream to receiving water bodies, potentially causing algal blooms, which could lead to numerous ecological problems. To better understand nutrient load transport, and to develop appropriate water management plans, it is important to have accurate estimates of annual nutrient loads. This study used a Monte Carlo sub-sampling method and error-corrected statistical models to estimate annual nitrate-N loads from two watersheds in central Illinois. The performance of three load estimation methods (the seven-parameter log-linear model, the ratio estimator, and the flow-weighted averaging estimator) applied at one-, two-, four-, six-, and eight-week sampling frequencies were compared. Five error correction techniques; the existing composite method, and four new error correction techniques developed in this study; were applied to each combination of sampling frequency and load estimation method. On average, the most accurate error reduction technique, (proportional rectangular) resulted in 15% and 30% more accurate load estimates when compared to the most accurate uncorrected load estimation method (ratio estimator) for the two watersheds. Using error correction methods, it is possible to design more cost-effective monitoring plans by achieving the same load estimation accuracy with fewer observations. Finally, the optimum combinations of monitoring threshold and sampling frequency that minimizes the number of samples required to achieve specified levels of accuracy in load estimation were determined. For one- to three-weeks sampling frequencies, combined threshold/fixed-interval monitoring approaches produced the best outcomes, while fixed-interval-only approaches produced the most accurate results for four- to eight-weeks sampling frequencies.

SAMPLING BIAS IN EVALUATING THE PROBABILITY OF SEISMICALLY INDUCED SOIL LIQUEFACTION WITH SPT & CPT CASE HISTORIES

Several deterministic and probabilistic methods are used to evaluate the probability of seismically induced liquefaction of a soil. The probabilistic models usually possess some uncertainty in that model and uncertainties in the parameters used to develop that model. These model uncertainties vary from one statistical model to another. Most of the model uncertainties are epistemic, and can be addressed through appropriate knowledge of the statistical model. One such epistemic model uncertainty in evaluating liquefaction potential using a probabilistic model such as logistic regression is sampling bias. Sampling bias is the difference between the class distribution in the sample used for developing the statistical model and the true population distribution of liquefaction and non-liquefaction instances. Recent studies have shown that sampling bias can significantly affect the predicted probability using a statistical model. To address this epistemic uncertainty, a new approach was developed for evaluating the probability of seismically-induced soil liquefaction, in which a logistic regression model in combination with Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was used. This approach was used to estimate the population (true) distribution of liquefaction to non-liquefaction instances of standard penetration test (SPT) and cone penetration test (CPT) based most updated case histories. Apart from this, other model uncertainties such as distribution of explanatory variables and significance of explanatory variables were also addressed using KS test and Wald statistic respectively. Moreover, based on estimated population distribution, logistic regression equations were proposed to calculate the probability of liquefaction for both SPT and CPT based case history. Additionally, the proposed probability curves were compared with existing probability curves based on SPT and CPT case histories.

Bayesian updating rules in continuous opinion dynamics models

Here, I investigate the use of Bayesian updating rules applied to modeling how social agents change their minds in the case of continuous opinion models. Given another agent statement about the continuous value of a variable, we will see that interesting dynamics emerge when an agent assigns a likelihood to that value that is a mixture of a Gaussian and a uniform distribution. This represents the idea that the other agent might have no idea about what is being talked about. The effect of updating only the first moments of the distribution will be studied, and we will see that this generates results similar to those of the bounded confidence models. On also updating the second moment, several different opinions always survive in the long run, as agents become more stubborn with time. However, depending on the probability of error and initial uncertainty, those opinions might be clustered around a central value.