Using graphical probability analysis (Bayes Nets) to evaluate a conditional DNA inclusion

This paper discusses the analysis of cases in which the inclusion or exclusion of a particular suspect, as a possible contributor to a DNA mixture, depends on the value of a variable (the number of contributors) that cannot be determined with certainty. It offers alternative ways to deal with such cases, including sensitivity analysis and object-oriented Bayesian networks, that separate uncertainty about the inclusion of the suspect from uncertainty about other variables. The paper presents a case study in which the value of DNA evidence varies radically depending on the number of contributors to a DNA mixture: if there are two contributors, the suspect is excluded; if there are three or more, the suspect is included; but the number of contributors cannot be determined with certainty. It shows how an object-oriented Bayesian network can accommodate and integrate varying perspectives on the unknown variable and how it can reduce the potential for bias by directing attention to relevant considerations and distinguishing different sources of uncertainty. It also discusses the challenge of presenting such evidence to lay audiences.

How to assign a likelihood ratio in a footwear mark case: an analysis and discussion in the light of R v T

This article analyses and discusses issues that pertain to the choice of relevant databases for assigning values to the components of evaluative likelihood ratio procedures at source level. Although several formal likelihood ratio developments currently exist, both case practitioners and recipients of expert information (such as judiciary) may be reluctant to consider them as a framework for evaluating scientific evidence in context. The recent ruling R v T and ensuing discussions in many forums provide illustrative examples for this. In particular, it is often felt that likelihood ratio-based reasoning amounts to an application that requires extensive quantitative information along with means for dealing with technicalities related to the algebraic formulation of these approaches. With regard to this objection, this article proposes two distinct discussions. In a first part, it is argued that, from a methodological point of view, there are additional levels of qualitative evaluation that are worth considering prior to focusing on particular numerical probability assignments. Analyses will be proposed that intend to show that, under certain assumptions, relative numerical values, as opposed to absolute values, may be sufficient to characterize a likelihood ratio for practical and pragmatic purposes. The feasibility of such qualitative considerations points out that the availability of hard numerical data is not a necessary requirement for implementing a likelihood ratio approach in practice. It is further argued that, even if numerical evaluations can be made, qualitative considerations may be valuable because they can further the understanding of the logical underpinnings of an assessment. In a second part, the article will draw a parallel to R v T by concentrating on a practical footwear mark case received at the authors' institute. This case will serve the purpose of exemplifying the possible usage of data from various sources in casework and help to discuss the difficulty associated with reconciling the depth of theoretical likelihood ratio developments and limitations in the degree to which these developments can actually be applied in practice.

Persistence of a biocontrol Pseudomonas inoculant as high populations of culturable and non-culturable cells in 200-cm-deep soil profiles

Little is known about the ecology of soil inoculants used for pathogen biocontrol, biofertilization and bioremediation under field conditions. We investigated the persistence and the physiological states of soil-inoculated Pseudomonas protegens (previously Pseudomonas fluorescens) CHA0 (108 CFU g−1 surface soil) in different soil microbial habitats in a planted ley (Medicago sativa L.) and an uncovered field plot. At 72 days, colony counts of the inoculant were low in surface soil (uncovered plot) and earthworm guts (ley plot), whereas soil above the plow pan (uncovered plot), and the rhizosphere and worm burrows present until 1.2 m depth (ley plot) were survival hot spots (105-106 CFU g−1 soil). Interestingly, strain CHA0 was also detected in the subsoil of both plots, at 102-105 CFU g−1 soil between 1.8 and 2 m depth. However, non-cultured CHA0 cells were also evidenced based on immunofluorescence microscopy. Kogure's direct viable counts of nutrient-responsive cells showed that many more CHA0 cells were in a viable but non-culturable (VBNC) or a non-responsive (dormant) state than in a culturable state, and the proportion of cells in those non-cultured states depended on soil microbial habitat. At the most, cells in a VBNC state amounted to 34% (above the plow pan) and those in a dormant state to 89% (in bulk soil between 0.6 and 2 m) of all CHA0 cells. The results indicate that field-released Pseudomonas inoculants may persist at high cell numbers, even in deeper soil layers, and display a combination of different physiological states whose prevalence fluctuates according to soil microbial habitats.

Pavement Markings and Safety Final Report, November 2010

Previous research on pavement markings from a safety perspective tackled various issues such as pavement marking retroreflectivity variability, relationship between pavement marking retroreflectivity and driver visibility, or pavement marking improvements and safety. A recent research interest in this area has been to find a correlation between retroreflectivity and crashes, but a significant statistical relationship has not yet been found. This study investigates such a possible statistical relationship by analyzing five years of pavement marking retroreflectivity data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) on all state primary roads and corresponding crash and traffic data. This study developed a spatial-temporal database using measured retroreflectivity data to account for the deterioration of pavement markings over time along with statewide crash data to attempt to quantify a relationship between crash occurrence probability and pavement marking retroreflectivity. First, logistic regression analyses were done for the whole data set to find a statistical relationship between crash occurrence probability and identified variables, which are road type, line type, retroreflectivity, and traffic (vehicle miles traveled). The analysis looked into subsets of the data set such as road type, retroreflectivity measurement source, high crash routes, retroreflectivity range, and line types. Retroreflectivity was found to have a significant effect in crash occurrence probability for four data subsets—interstate, white edge line, yellow edge line, and yellow center line data. For white edge line and yellow center line data, crash occurrence probability was found to increase by decreasing values of retroreflectivity.

Pavement Markings and Safety,

This study explores the statistical relationship between crash occurrence probability and longitudinal pavement marking retroreflectivity. Problem Statement Previous research on pavement markings, from a safety perspective, tackled various issues, such as pavement marking retroreflectivity variability, relationship between pavement marking retroreflectivity and driver visibility, and pavement marking improvements and safety. A recent research interest in this area is to find a correlation between retroreflectivity and crashes, as a significant statistical relationship is undefined to date.

Landscape structure affects dispersal in the greater white-toothed shrew: inference between genetic and simulated ecological distances

Animal dispersal in a fragmented landscape depends on the complex interaction between landscape structure and animal behavior. To better understand how individuals disperse, it is important to explicitly represent the properties of organisms and the landscape in which they move. A common approach to modelling dispersal includes representing the landscape as a grid of equal sized cells and then simulating individual movement as a correlated random walk. This approach uses a priori scale of resolution, which limits the representation of all landscape features and how different dispersal abilities are modelled. We develop a vector-based landscape model coupled with an object-oriented model for animal dispersal. In this spatially explicit dispersal model, landscape features are defined based on their geographic and thematic properties and dispersal is modelled through consideration of an organism's behavior, movement rules and searching strategies (such as visual cues). We present the model's underlying concepts, its ability to adequately represent landscape features and provide simulation of dispersal according to different dispersal abilities. We demonstrate the potential of the model by simulating two virtual species in a real Swiss landscape. This illustrates the model's ability to simulate complex dispersal processes and provides information about dispersal such as colonization probability and spatial distribution of the organism's path

Origin-related, environmental, sex, and age determinants of immunocompetence, susceptibility to ectoparasites, and disease symptoms in the barn owl

Knowledge of the role of origin-related, environmental, sex, and age factors on host defence mechanisms is important to understand variation in parasite intensity. Because alternative components of parasite defence may be differently sensitive to various factors, they may not necessarily covary. Many components should therefore be considered to tackle the evolution of host-parasite interactions. In a population of barn owls (Tyto alba), we investigated the role of origin-related, environmental (i.e. year, season, nest of rearing, and body condition), sex, and age factors on 12 traits linked to immune responses [humoral immune responses towards sheep red blood cells (SRBC), human serum albumin (HSA) and toxoid toxin TT, T-cell mediated immune response towards the mitogen phytohemagglutinin (PHA)], susceptibility to ectoparasites (number and fecundity of Carnus haemapterus, number of Ixodes ricinus), and disease symptoms (size of the bursa of Fabricius and spleen, proportion of proteins that are immunoglobulins, haematocrit and blood concentration in leucocytes). Cross-fostering experiments allowed us to detect a heritable component of variation in only four out of nine immune and parasitic parameters (i.e. SRBC- and HSA-responses, haematocrit, and number of C. haemapterus). However, because nestlings were not always cross-fostered just after hatching, the finding that 44% of the immune and parasitic parameters were heritable is probably an overestimation. These experiments also showed that five out of these nine parameters were sensitive to the nest environment (i.e. SRBC- and PHA-responses, number of C. haemapterus, haematocrit and blood concentration in leucocytes). Female nestlings were more infested by the blood-sucking fly C. haemapterus than their male nestmates, and their blood was less concentrated in leucocytes. The effect of year, season, age (i.e. reflecting the degree of maturation of the immune system), brood size, position in the within-brood age hierarchy, and body mass strongly differed between the 12 parameters. Different components of host defence mechanisms are therefore not equally heritable and sensitive to environmental, sex, and age factors, potentially explaining why most of these components did not covary.

Evidential relevance in scene to offender transfer cases: development and analysis of a likelihood ratio for offence level propositions

The present paper focuses on the analysis and discussion of a likelihood ratio (LR) development for propositions at a hierarchical level known in the context as 'offence level'. Existing literature on the topic has considered LR developments for so-called offender to scene transfer cases. These settings involve-in their simplest form-a single stain found on a crime scene, but with possible uncertainty about the degree to which that stain is relevant (i.e. that it has been left by the offender). Extensions to multiple stains or multiple offenders have also been reported. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a development of a LR for offence level propositions when case settings involve potential transfer in the opposite direction, i.e. victim/scene to offender transfer. This setting has previously not yet been considered. The rationale behind the proposed LR is illustrated through graphical probability models (i.e. Bayesian networks). The role of various uncertain parameters is investigated through sensitivity analyses as well as simulations.

Prevalence, incidence and indications of hypno-sedative treatments in hospitalized patients aged 75 and older

Introduction Sleep impairment is a common problem in older persons and is associated with adverse health and economic consequences. The most prescribed hypnosedatives in Switzerland are benzodiazepines, benzodiazepine-like hypnosedatives and clomethiazole. In the elderly persons, these medications have been associated with decreased cognitive performance, an increased risk of addiction and an increased risk of falls. The main aim of this study was to determine the prevalence, incidence and indications of hypnosedative prescriptions in older in-patients admitted to a Swiss university hospital. Furthermore, we planned to investigate the possible relationship between hypnosedatives' prescription and patients' falls during the hospital stay and we compared the prevalence of hypnosedative drugs' prescribing between geriatric and non-geriatric clinical wards.Materials & Methods This observational study included all patients aged 75 years or older admitted to a Swiss university hospital for 24 h or more. Prescription-related data were recorded every day for 26 consecutive days in the two geriatric wards, and twice, a week apart, in three non-geriatric wards.Results A total of 204 patients (mean age 84.7 ± 0.7 years, 66% women) were included. The prevalence of hypnosedative drugs prescription was 73% and the incidence was 28% on the two geriatric wards. The most common indications for a prescription on geriatric wards was insomnia (51%), followed by continuation of usual treatment (12%). The most frequently prescribed hypnosedative drug was clomethiazole (64% of the patients), followed by lorazepam (11%). We were not able to demonstrate any significant correlation between the number of hypnosedative drugs prescribed and the number of falls during hospital stay. The prevalence of hypnosedative drugs prescriptions was similar between geriatric and non-geriatric wards. The proportion of patients treated by at least one hypnosedative increased between hospital admission (32%) and discharge (45%).Discussions, Conclusion This study reveals a high prevalence of hypnosedative prescription in medical in-patients aged 75 years or older. Main indication was insomnia and the most frequently prescribed hypnosedative molecule was clomethiazole. Prescription incidence was also very high and the proportion of patients being prescribed a hypnosedative increased during hospital stay. Systematic interventions need to be integrated in order to reduce elderly inpatient exposure to treatments that are associated with adverse health outcomes.Conference information: ESCP 40th International Symposium on Clinical Pharmacy. Clinical Pharmacy: Connecting Care and Outcomes Dublin Ireland, 19-21 October 2011

Low-Cost Rural Surface Alternatives: Literature Review and Recommendations, TR-632, 2013

Freezing and thawing action induces damage to unbound gravel roads in Iowa resulting in maintenance costs for secondary road departments. Some approaches currently used by County Engineers to deal with this problem include temporarily spreading rock on the affected areas, lowering or improving drainage ditches, tiling, bridging the area with stone and geosynthetic covered by a top course of aggregate or gravel, coring boreholes and filling them with calcium chloride to melt lenses and provide drainage, and re-grading the crown to a slope of 4% to 6% to maximize spring drainage. However, most of these maintenance solutions are aimed at dealing with conditions after they occur. This study was tasked with identifying alternative approaches in the literature to mitigate the problem. An annotated bibliographic record of literature on the topic of frost-heave and thaw-weakening of gravel roads was generated and organized by topic, and all documents were assessed in terms of a suitable rating for mitigating the problem in Iowa. Over 300 technical articles were collected and selected down to about 150 relevant articles for a full assessment. The documents collected have been organized in an electronic database, which can be used as a tool by practitioners to search for information regarding the various repair and mitigation solutions, measurement technologies, and experiences that have been documented by selected domestic and international researchers and practitioners. Out of the 150+ articles, 71 articles were ranked as highly applicable to conditions in Iowa. The primary mitigation methods identified in this study included chemical and mechanical stabilization; scarification, blending, and recompaction; removal and replacement; separation, and reinforcement; geogrids and cellular confinement; drainage control and capillary barriers, and use of alternative materials. It is recommended that demonstration research projects be established to examine a range of construction methods and materials for treating granular surfaced roadways to mitigate frost-heave and thaw-weakening problems. Preliminary frost-susceptibility test results from ASTM D5916 are included for a range of Iowa materials.

Radiometric age constraints on mineral growth, metamorphism, and tectonism of the Gummfluh klippe, Brianconnais domain of the Prealpes, Switzerland

A combined Ar-40/Ar-39, K/Ar, Rb/Sr and stable isotope study has been made of white micas from the Gummfluh klippe (Brianconnais domain of the Prealpes), Switzerland. The klippe consists mainly of Mesozoic to early Tertiary carbonate rocks metamorphosed from anchizonal to epizonal conditions. At the base of the klippe is a 10-50 m thick, ductilely deformed marble mylonite containing deformed authigenic quartz segregations. Stable isotope measurements of the coexisting calcite (deltaO-18SMOW=24.5) and quartz (deltaO-18SMOW=28.4) from the mylonite indicate relatively low temperatures (< 300-degreesC) during mylonitization. Analyses of white mica separates of varying size fractions from the mylonitic rocks by K/Ar and Rb/Sr techniques yield ages between 57 and 103 Ma. This variation is correlated with two parameters, the size of the mineral fraction, and the proportion of 2M1 (more phengitic) to 1M (more muscovitic) polytype in the sample. The K/Ar and Rb/Sr ages are generally younger in the smaller size fractions, which also containless 2M1 phengite. High precision Ar-40/Ar-39 age spectra from different size fractions of these micas record three distinct components, a small Hercynian component (ca. 200-300 Ma), a significant Eoalpine component (64-80 Ma) forming Ar-40/Ar-39 age plateaus, and a very minor Tertiary component (ca. 20-40 Ma). Characterization of the samples by SEM indicates the presence of two white mica populations, a coarser grained, deformed, detrital mica that probably corresponds to the 2M1 phengite and a finer grained neoformed 1M mica. Collectively these observations suggest that the Gummfluh samples contain a mixture of detrital phengites of Hercynian age together with neocrystallized muscovites grown during the late Eoalpine metamorphic event followed by minor argon loss during the Tertiary. The main geologic episode recorded in the Ar-40/Ar-39 age spectra of white micas in the mylonite is of Late Cretaceous/Early Tertiary age (64-80 Ma), representing the first reliable Eoalpine ages ever to be reported from the Prealpes. Contrary to tectonic models, the marble mylonite at the base of the Gummfluh klippe appears to be a Cretaceous thrust plane and not the thrust surface formed during transport of the klippe into its present position from the Penninic Alps during the Tertiary. The late Cretaceous thrust developed during marine sedimentation at a depth of 800 m below the seafloor at temperatures of approximately 280-degrees-C, facilitated by warm fluids along the tectonic discontinuity.

Non-Corrosive Tie Reinforcing and Dowel Bars for Highway Pavement Slabs, HR-343, 1993

The use of non-metallic load transfer and reinforcement devices for concrete highway pavements is a possible alternative to avoid corrosion problems related to the current practice of steel materials. Laboratory and field testing of highway pavement dowel bars, made of both steel and fiber composite materials, and fiber composite tie rods were carried out in this research investigation. Fatigue, static, and dynamic testing was performed on full-scale concrete pavement slabs which were supported by a simulated subgrade and which included a single transverse joint. The bahavior of the full-scale specimens with both steel and fiber composite dowels placed in the test joints was monitored during several million load cycles which simulated truck traffic at a transverse joint. Static bond tests were conducted on fiber composite tie rods to determine the required embedment length. These tests took the form of bending tests which included curvature and shear in the embedment zone and pullout tests which subjected the test specimen to axial tension only. Fiber composite dowel bars were placed at two transverse joints during construction of a new concrete highway pavement in order to evaluate their performance under actual field conditions. Fiber composite tie rods were also placed in the longitudinal joint between the two fiber composite doweled transverse joints.

Invasion and eradication of a competitively superior species in heterogeneous landscapes

The effect of heterogeneous environments upon the dynamics of invasion and the eradication or control of invasive species is poorly understood, although it is a major challenge for biodiversity conservation. Here, we first investigate how the probability and time for invasion are affected by spatial heterogeneity. Then, we study the effect of control program strategies (e.g. species specificity, spatial scale of action, detection and eradication efficiency) on the success and time of eradication. We find that heterogeneity increases both the invasion probability and the time to invasion. Heterogeneity also reduces the probability of eradication but does not change the time taken for successful eradication. We confirm that early detection of invasive species reduces the time until eradication, but we also demonstrate that this is true only if the local control action is sufficiently efficient. The criterion of removal efficiency is even more important for an eradication program than simply ensuring control effort when the invasive species is not abundant.

The Uncertain generalized probabilistic weighted average and its application in the theory of expertons

A new model for dealing with decision making under risk by considering subjective and objective information in the same formulation is here presented. The uncertain probabilistic weighted average (UPWA) is also presented. Its main advantage is that it unifies the probability and the weighted average in the same formulation and considering the degree of importance that each case has in the analysis. Moreover, it is able to deal with uncertain environments represented in the form of interval numbers. We study some of its main properties and particular cases. The applicability of the UPWA is also studied and it is seen that it is very broad because all the previous studies that use the probability or the weighted average can be revised with this new approach. Focus is placed on a multi-person decision making problem regarding the selection of strategies by using the theory of expertons.