The impact of climate change on the macroeconomy in the Caribbean

In this study, an attempt is made to assess the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A methodological approach proposed by Dell et al. (2008) is used in preference to the traditional Integrated Assessment Models. The evolution of climate variables and of the macroeconomy of each of the nine countries over the period 1970 to 2006 is analyzed and preliminary evidence of a relationship between the macroeconomy and climate change is examined. The preliminary investigation uses correlation, Granger causality and simple regression methods. The preliminary evidence suggests that there is some relationship but that the direction of causation between the macroeconomy and the climate variables is indeterminate. The main analysis involves the use of a panel data (random effects) model which fits the historical data (1971-2007) very well. Projections of economic growth from 2008 to 2099 are done on the basis of four climate scenarios: the International Panel on Climate Change A2, B2, a hybrid A2B2 (the mid-point of A2 and B2), and a ‘baseline’ or ‘Business as Usual’ scenario, which assumes that the growth rate in the period 2008-2099 is the same as the average growth rate over the period 1971-2007. The best average growth rate is under the B2 scenario, followed by the hybrid A2B2 and A2 scenarios, in that order. Although negative growth rates eventually dominate, they are largely positive for a long time. The projections all display long-run secular decline in growth rates notwithstanding short-run upward trends, including some very sharp ones, moving eventually from declining positive rates to negative ones. The costs associated with the various scenarios are all quite high, rising to as high as a present value (2007 base year) of US$14 billion in 2099 (constant 1990 prices) for the B2 scenario and US$21 billion for the BAU scenario. These costs were calculated on the basis of very conservative estimates of the cost of environmental degradation. Mitigation and adaptation costs are likely to be quite high though a small fraction of projected total investment costs.

O contraditório no inquérito policial à luz dos princípios constitucionais

Pós-graduação em Direito - FCHS

Perfil socioeconômico e trajetória escolar de alunos de licenciatura em Ciências Biológicas e Matemática da Unesp de São José do Rio Preto

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Correlation between carotid bifurcation calcium burden on non-enhanced CT and percentage stenosis, as confirmed by digital subtraction angiography

Objectives: Previous evidence supports a direct relationship between the calcium burden (volume) on post-contrast CT with the percent internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis at the carotid bifurcation. We sought to further investigate this relationship by comparing non-enhanced CT (NECT) and digital subtraction angiography (DSA). Methods: 50 patients (aged 41-82 years) were retrospectively identified who had undergone cervical NECT and DSA. A 64-multidetector array CT (MDCT) scanner was utilised and the images reviewed using preset window widths/levels (30/300) optimised to calcium, with the volumes measured via three-dimensional reconstructive software. Stenosis measurements were performed on DSA and luminal diameter stenoses >40% were considered "significant". Volume thresholds of 0.01, 0.03, 0.06, 0.09 and 0.12 cm(3) were utilised and Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) was calculated to correlate the calcium volume with percent stenosis. Results: Of 100 carotid bifurcations, 88 were available and of these 7 were significantly stenotic. The NECT calcium volume moderately correlated with percent stenosis on DSA r=0.53 (p<0.01). A moderate-strong correlation was found between the square root of calcium volume on NECT with percent stenosis on DSA (r=0.60, p<0.01). Via a receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.06 cm(3) was determined to be the best threshold (sensitivity 100%, specificity 90.1%, negative predictive value 100% and positive predictive value 46.7%) for detecting significant stenoses. Conclusion: This preliminary investigation confirms a correlation between carotid bifurcation calcium volume and percent ICA stenosis and is promising for the optimal threshold for stenosis detection. Future studies could utilise calcium volumes to create a "score" that could predict high grade stenosis.

Use of short term test systems for the prediction of the hazard represented by potential chemical carcinogens

It has been hypothesized that results from the short term bioassays will ultimately provide information that will be useful for human health hazard assessment. Although toxicologic test systems have become increasingly refined, to date, no investigator has been able to provide qualitative or quantitative methods which would support the use of short term tests in this capacity.^ Historically, the validity of the short term tests have been assessed using the framework of the epidemiologic/medical screens. In this context, the results of the carcinogen (long term) bioassay is generally used as the standard. However, this approach is widely recognized as being biased and, because it employs qualitative data, cannot be used in the setting of priorities. In contrast, the goal of this research was to address the problem of evaluating the utility of the short term tests for hazard assessment using an alternative method of investigation.^ Chemical carcinogens were selected from the list of carcinogens published by the International Agency for Research on Carcinogens (IARC). Tumorigenicity and mutagenicity data on fifty-two chemicals were obtained from the Registry of Toxic Effects of Chemical Substances (RTECS) and were analyzed using a relative potency approach. The relative potency framework allows for the standardization of data "relative" to a reference compound. To avoid any bias associated with the choice of the reference compound, fourteen different compounds were used.^ The data were evaluated in a format which allowed for a comparison of the ranking of the mutagenic relative potencies of the compounds (as estimated using short term data) vs. the ranking of the tumorigenic relative potencies (as estimated from the chronic bioassays). The results were statistically significant (p $<$.05) for data standardized to thirteen of the fourteen reference compounds. Although this was a preliminary investigation, it offers evidence that the short term test systems may be of utility in ranking the hazards represented by chemicals which may be human carcinogens. ^

The miniaturized nuclear genome of eukaryotic endosymbiont contains genes that overlap, genes that are cotranscribed, and the smallest known spliceosomal introns.

Chlorarachniophyte algae contain a complex, multi-membraned chloroplast derived from the endosymbiosis of a eukaryotic alga. The vestigial nucleus of the endosymbiont, called the nucleomorph, contains only three small linear chromosomes with a haploid genome size of 380 kb and is the smallest known eukaryotic genome. Nucleotide sequence data from a subtelomeric fragment of chromosome III were analyzed as a preliminary investigation of the coding capacity of this vestigial genome. Several housekeeping genes including U6 small nuclear RNA (snRNA), ribosomal proteins S4 and S13, a core protein of the spliceosome [small nuclear ribonucleoprotein (snRNP) E], and a cip-like protease (clpP) were identified. Expression of these genes was confirmed by combinations of Northern blot analysis, in situ hybridization, immunocytochemistry, and cDNA analysis. The protein-encoding genes are typically eukaryotic in overall structure and their messenger RNAs are polyadenylylated. A novel feature is the abundance of 18-, 19-, or 20-nucleotide introns; the smallest spliceosomal introns known. Two of the genes, U6 and S13, overlap while another two genes, snRNP E and clpP, are cotranscribed in a single mRNA. The overall gene organization is extraordinarily compact, making the nucleomorph a unique model for eukaryotic genomics.

Two new tools for assessing patients' knowledge and beliefs about obstructive sleep apnea and continuous positive airway pressure therapy

Background and purpose: Patients' knowledge and beliefs about their illnesses are known to influence a range of health related variables, including treatment compliance. It may, therefore, be important to quantify these variables to assess their impact on compliance, particularly in chronic illnesses such as Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) that rely on self-administered treatments. The aim of this study was to develop two new tools, the Apnea Knowledge Test (AKT) and the Apnea Beliefs Scale (ABS), to assess illness knowledge and beliefs in OSA patients. Patients and methods: The systematic test construction process followed to develop the AKT and the ABS included consultation with sleep experts and OSA patients. The psychometric properties of the AKT and ABS were then investigated in a clinical sample of 81 OSA patients and 33 healthy, non-sleep disordered adults. Results: Results suggest both measures are easily understood by OSA patients, have adequate internal consistency, and are readily accepted by patients. A preliminary investigation of the validity of these tools, conducted by comparing patient data to that of the 33 healthy adults, revealed that apnea patients knew more about OSA, had more positive attitudes towards continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) treatment, and attributed more importance to treating sleep disturbances than non-clinical groups. Conclusions: Overall, the results of psychometric analyses of these tests suggest these measures will be useful clinical tools with numerous beneficial applications, particularly in CPAP compliance studies and apnea education program evaluations. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Velocity distributions in a plate heat exchanger channel

The development of a Laser Doppler Anemometer technique to measure the velocity distribution in a commercial plate heat exchanger is described. Detailed velocity profiles are presented and a preliminary investigation is reported on flow behaviour through a single cell in the channel matrix. The objective of the study was to extend previous investigations of plate heat exchanger flow patterns in the laminar range with the eventual aim of establishing the effect of flow patterns on heat transfer performance, thus leading to improved plate heat exchanger design and design methods. Accurate point velocities were obtained by Laser Anemometry in a perspex replica of the metal channel. Oil was used as a circulating liquid with a refractive index matched to that of the perspex so that the laser beams were not distorted. Cell-by-cell velocity measurements over a range of Reynolds number up to ten showed significant liquid mal-distribution. Local cell velocities were found to be as high as twenty seven times average velocity, contrary to the previously held belief of four times. The degree of mal-distribution varied across the channel as well as in the vertical direction, and depended on the upward or downward direction of flow. At Reynolds numbers less than one, flow zig-zagged from one side of the channel to the other in wave form, but increases in Reynolds number improved liquid distribution. A detailed examination of selected cells showed velocity variations in different directions, together with variation within individual cells. Experimental results are also reported on the flow split when passing through a single cell in a section of a channel . These observations were used to explain mal-distribution in the perspex channel itself.

Novel cationic polymers for use at biological interfaces

One of the main problems with the use of synthetic polymers as biomaterials is the invasion of micro-organisms causing infection. A study of the properties of polymeric antibacterial agents, in particular polyhexamethylene biguanide, has revealed that the essential components for the design of a novel polymeric antibacterial are a balance between hydrophilicity and hydrophobicity coupled with sites of cationicity. The effect of cation incorporation on the physical properties of hydrogels has been investigated. Hydrogel systems copolymerised with either N-vinyl imidazole or dimethylaminoethyl methacrylate have been characterised in terms of their water binding, mechanical and surface properties. It has been concluded that the incorporation of these monomers does not adversely affect the properties of such hydrogels and that these materials are potential candidates for further development for use in biomedical applications. It has been reported that hydro gels with ionic character may increase the deposition of biological material onto the hydrogel surface when it is in contact with body fluids. An investigation into the deposition characteristics of hydrogels containing the potentially cationic monomers has been carried out, using specific protein adsorption and in vitro spoilation techniques. The results suggest that at low levels of cationicity, the deposition of positively charged proteins is reduced without adversely affecting the uptake of the other proteins. The gross deposition characteristics were found to be comparable to some commercially available contact lens materials. A preliminary investigation into the development of novel antibacterial polymers has been completed and some novel methods of bacterial inhibition discussed. These methods include development of an hydrogel whose potential application is as a catheter coating.

Novel hydrogel polymers

Hydrogels may be conveniently described as hydrophilic polymers that are swollen by, but do not dissolve in water. In this work a series of copolymer hydrogels and semi-interpenetrating polymer networks based on the monomers 2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate, N-vinyl pyrrolidone and N'N' dimethyl acrylamide, together with some less hydrophilic hydroxyalkyl acrylates and methacrylates have been synthesised. Variations in structure and composition have been correlated both with the total equilibrium water content of the resultant hydrogel and with the more detailed water binding behaviour, as revealed by differential scanning calorimetry studies. The water binding characteristics of the hydrogels were found to be primarily a function of the water structuring groups present in gel. The water binding abilities of these groups were, however, modified by steric effects. The mechanical properties of the hydrogels were also investigated. These were found to be dependent on both the polymer composition and the amount and nature of the water present in the gels. In biological systems, composite formation provides a means of producing strong, high water content materials. As an analogy with these systems hydrogel composites were prepared. In an initial study of these materials the water binding and mechanical properties of semi-interpenetrating polymer networks of N'N'dimethyl acrylamide with cellulosic type materials, with polyurethanes and with ester containing polymers were examined. A preliminary investigation of surface properties of both the copolymers and semi-interpenetrating polymer networks has been completed, using both contact angle measurements and anchorage dependent fibroblast cells. Measurable differences in surface properties attributable to structural variations in the polymers were detected by droplet techniques in the dehydrated state. However, in the hydrated state these differences were masked by the water in the gels. The use of cells enabled the underlying differences to be probed and the nature of the water structuring group was again found to be the dominant factor.

The production of clinical dextran using membrane processes

Clinical dextran is used as a blood volume expander. The British Pharmacopeia (BP) specification for this product requires the amount of dextran below 12,000 MW and above 98,000 MW to be strictly controlled. Dextran is presently fractionated industrially using ethanol precipitation. The aim of this work was to develop an ultrafiltration system which could replace the present industrial process. Initially these molecular weight (MW) bands were removed using batch ultrafiltration. A large number of membranes were tested. The correct BP specification could be achieved using these membranes but there was a significant loss of saleable material. To overcome this problem a four stage ultrafiltration cascade (UFC) was used. This work is the first known example of a UFC being used to remove both the high and low MW dextran. To remove the high MW material it was necessary to remove 90% of the MW distribution and retain the remaining 10%. The UFC significantly reduced the amount of dialysate required. To achieve the correct specification below 12,000 MW, the UFC required only 2.5 - 3.0 diavolumes while the batch system required 6 - 7. The UFC also improved the efficiency of the fractionation process. The UFC could retain up to 96% of the high MW material while the batch system could only retain 82.5% using the same number of diavolumes. On average the UFC efficiency was approximately 10% better than the equivalent batch system. The UFC was found to be more predictable than the industrial process and the specification of the final product was easier to control. The UFC can be used to improve the fractionation of any polymer and also has several other potential uses including enzyme purification. A dextransucrase bioreactor was also developed. This preliminary investigation highlighted the problems involved with the development of a successful bioreactor for this enzyme system.

The mechanochemical modification of polyolefins using reactive modifier systems

The principal objective of this work was to improve the mechanical properties of glass fibre reinforced polypropylene (PP) composites by the mechanochemical modification of the PP. The modification of the PP was carried out by reactive processing of the PP with a modifier in a Buss Ko-Kneader. Two main types of modifier were evaluated one type based on N-substituted maleimides the others based on 2-allylamino-4,6-dichloro-1,3,5-triazine (ACCT). The modification of the PP was carried out in two stages. Firstly the PP was reactively processed with the modifier and a free radical initiator. The objective of this stage was to bind the modifier to the PP. In the second stage the modified PP was reactively processed with the glass fibre. The objective in this stage was to form a chemical bond between the bound modifier and the silane coupling agent on the surface of the glass. Two silane coupling agents were evaluated these had a aliphatic chloro group and an aliphatic amino group respectively available for reaction with the modifier. The modifiers synthesised for this work had two main functional groups. The first was a double bond for free radical addition to the PP. The second was an organic group chosen for its potential reactivity to the silane coupling agent. A preliminary investigation was carried out using maleic anhydride (MA) as the modifier, this is reactive to the amino silane coupled glass. Studies of a commercially available system were also carried out for comparison purposes. During the work it was found that the amino silane coupled glass fibres produced, without any modification being made to the PP, mechanical properties comparable to the commercial system. Further any modification added to the amino silane system failed to improve the mechanical performance and in some cases acted in the opposite fashion. This failure was evident even when a chemical bond between glass fibre and PP could be shown. In the case of the chloro silane coupled glass fibres the mechanical properties of the composite without modification were poorer than those of the commercial system. It was found that the mechanical properties of these systems could be enhanced by the modifiers, however, no system tested significantly out performed the commercial system. Of the two modifier systems tested those based on the n-substituted maleimides were more successful at enhancing mechanical properties than those based on ACCT. This was attributed to the Poor chemical binding of the ACCT based modifiers to the PP. During the work it was found that several of the modifiers improved the properties of the PP when no glass fibres were present, particularly the % elongation and impact strength. It is possible that these modifiers could be used to improve the impact performance of PP, this may be of particular interest in recycling. These modifiers have only been tested for improving the properties of glass fibre composites. The N-substituted maleimide based modifiers could be used as compatibleisers for alloys of PP and other polymers. These could function by the formation of the bond with PP via the double bond whilst the group attached to the nitrogen atom could react with the alloying polymer.

Abrasion resistance of fibre reinforced concrete floors

This thesis focuses on the investigation of the abrasion resistance of fibre reinforced concrete floors at both the macro and micro levels. A literature review of the available literature concerning subjects allied to the current project is included. This highlights themes relevant to wear mechanisms and the factors influencing it: factors that affect the abrasion resistance of concrete and several test methods for assessing it; and the historical development of fibres and the properties of different fibre types and their influence on concrete. Three accelerated abrasion testers were compared and critically discussed for their suitability for assessing the abrasion resistance of concrete floors. Based on the experimental findings one accelerated abrasion apparatus was selected as more appropriate to be used for carrying out the main investigations. The laboratory programme that followed was undertaken to investigate the influence of various material and construction factors on abrasion resistance. These included mix variations (w/c ratio), fibre reinforcement, geometry, type and volume, curing method and superplasticizing agents. The results clearly show that these factors significantly affected abrasion resistance and several mechanisms were presumed to explain and better understand these observations. To verify and understand these mechanisms that are accountable for the breakdown of concrete slabs, the same concrete specimens that were used for the macro-study, were also subjected to microstructutural investigations using techniques such as Microhardness examination, Mercury intrusion porosimetry and Petrographic examination. It has been found that the abrasion resistance of concrete is primarily dependent on the microstructure and porosity of the concrete nearest to the surface. The feasibility of predicting the abrasion resistance of fibre reinforced concrete floors by indirect and non-destructive methods was investigated using five methods that have frequently been used for assessing the quality of concrete. They included the initial surface absorption test, the impact test, ball cratering, the scratch test and the base hardness test. The impact resistance (BRE screed tester) and scratch resistance (Base hardness tester) were found to be the most sensitive to factors affecting abrasion resistance and hence are considered to be the most appropriate testing techniques. In an attempt to develop an appropriate method for assessing the abrasion resistance of heavy-duty industrial concrete floors, it was found that the presence of curing/sealing compound on the concrete surface at the time of accelerated abrasion testing produces inappropriate results. A preliminary investigation in the direction of modifying the Aston accelerated abrasion tester has been carried out and a more aggressive head has been developed and is pending future research towards standardisation.

Multispectral retinal image analysis:a novel non-invasive tool for retinal imaging

Purpose-To develop a non-invasive method for quantification of blood and pigment distributions across the posterior pole of the fundus from multispectral images using a computer-generated reflectance model of the fundus. Methods - A computer model was developed to simulate light interaction with the fundus at different wavelengths. The distribution of macular pigment (MP) and retinal haemoglobins in the fundus was obtained by comparing the model predictions with multispectral image data at each pixel. Fundus images were acquired from 16 healthy subjects from various ethnic backgrounds and parametric maps showing the distribution of MP and of retinal haemoglobins throughout the posterior pole were computed. Results - The relative distributions of MP and retinal haemoglobins in the subjects were successfully derived from multispectral images acquired at wavelengths 507, 525, 552, 585, 596, and 611?nm, providing certain conditions were met and eye movement between exposures was minimal. Recovery of other fundus pigments was not feasible and further development of the imaging technique and refinement of the software are necessary to understand the full potential of multispectral retinal image analysis. Conclusion - The distributions of MP and retinal haemoglobins obtained in this preliminary investigation are in good agreement with published data on normal subjects. The ongoing development of the imaging system should allow for absolute parameter values to be computed. A further study will investigate subjects with known pathologies to determine the effectiveness of the method as a screening and diagnostic tool.