960 resultados para population viability analysis


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The integrative and conjugative element ICEclc is a mobile genetic element in Pseudomonas knackmussii B13, and an experimental model for a widely distributed group of elements in Proteobacteria. ICEclc is transferred from specialized transfer competent cells, which arise at a frequency of 3-5% in a population at stationary phase. Very little is known about the different factors that control the transfer frequency of this ICE family. Here we report the discovery of a three-gene operon encoded by ICEclc, which exerts global control on transfer initiation. The operon consists of three consecutive regulatory genes, encoding a TetR-type repressor MfsR, a MarR-type regulator and a LysR-type activator TciR. We show that MfsR autoregulates expression of the operon, whereas TciR is a global activator of ICEclc gene expression, but no clear role was yet found for MarR. Deletion of mfsR increases expression of tciR and marR, causing the proportion of transfer competent cells to reach almost 100% and transfer frequencies to approach 1 per donor. mfsR deletion also caused a two orders of magnitude loss in population viability, individual cell growth arrest and loss of ICEclc. This indicates that autoregulation is an important feature maintaining ICE transfer but avoiding fitness loss. Bioinformatic analysis showed that the mfsR-marR-tciR operon is unique for ICEclc and a few highly related ICE, whereas tciR orthologues occur more widely in a large variety of suspected ICE among Proteobacteria.

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It is axiomatic that our planet is extensively inhabited by diverse micro-organisms such as bacteria, yet the absolute diversity of different bacterial species is widely held to be unknown. Different bacteria can be found from the depths of the oceans to the top of the mountains; even the air is more or less colonized by bacteria. Most bacteria are either harmless or even advantageous to human beings but there are also bacteria, which can cause severe infectious diseases or spoil the supplies intended for human consumption. Therefore, it is vitally important not only to be able to detect and enumerate bacteria but also to assess their viability and possible harmfulness. Whilst the growth of bacteria is remarkably fast under optimum conditions and easy to detect by cultural methods, most bacteria are believed to lie in stationary phase of growth in which the actual growth is ceased and thus bacteria may simply be undetectable by cultural techniques. Additionally, several injurious factors such as low and high temperature or deficiency of nutrients can turn bacteria into a viable but non-culturable state (VBNC) that cannot be detected by cultural methods. Thereby, various noncultural techniques developed for the assessment of bacterial viability and killing have widely been exploited in modern microbiology. However, only a few methods are suitable for kinetic measurements, which enable the real-time detection of bacterial growth and viability. The present study describes alternative methods for measuring bacterial viability and killing as well as detecting the effects of various antimicrobial agents on bacteria on a real-time basis. The suitability of bacterial (lux) and beetle (luc) luciferases as well as green fluorescent protein (GFP) to act as a marker of bacterial viability and cell growth was tested. In particular, a multiparameter microplate assay based on GFP-luciferase combination as well as a flow cytometric measurement based on GFP-PI combination were developed to perform divergent viability analyses. The results obtained suggest that the antimicrobial activities of various drugs against bacteria could be successfully measured using both of these methods. Specifically, the data reliability of flow cytometric viability analysis was notably improved as GFP was utilized in the assay. A fluoro-luminometric microplate assay enabled kinetic measurements, which significantly improved and accelerated the assessment of bacterial viability compared to more conventional viability assays such as plate counting. Moreover, the multiparameter assay made simultaneous detection of GFP fluorescence and luciferase bioluminescence possible and provided extensive information about multiple cellular parameters in single assay, thereby increasing the accuracy of the assessment of the kinetics of antimicrobial activities on target bacteria.

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Background Plasmodium vivax is one of the five species causing malaria in human beings, affecting around 391 million people annually. The development of an anti-malarial vaccine has been proposed as an alternative for controlling this disease. However, its development has been hampered by allele-specific responses produced by the high genetic diversity shown by some parasite antigens. Evaluating these antigens’ genetic diversity is thus essential when designing a completely effective vaccine. Methods The gene sequences of Plasmodium vivax p12 (pv12) and p38 (pv38), obtained from field isolates in Colombia, were used for evaluating haplotype polymorphism and distribution by population genetics analysis. The evolutionary forces generating the variation pattern so observed were also determined. Results Both pv12 and pv38 were shown to have low genetic diversity. The neutral model for pv12 could not be discarded, whilst polymorphism in pv38 was maintained by balanced selection restricted to the gene’s 5′ region. Both encoded proteins seemed to have functional/structural constraints due to the presence of s48/45 domains, which were seen to be highly conserved.

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Over the last decade, a number of new methods of population genetic analysis based on likelihood have been introduced. This review describes and explains the general statistical techniques that have recently been used, and discusses the underlying population genetic models. Experimental papers that use these methods to infer human demographic and phylogeographic history are reviewed. It appears that the use of likelihood has hitherto had little impact in the field of human population genetics, which is still primarily driven by more traditional approaches. However, with the current uncertainty about the effects of natural selection, population structure and ascertainment of single-nucleotide polymorphism markers, it is suggested that likelihood-based methods may have a greater impact in the future.

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Background: The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs) of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four species with contrasting life-history characteristics: skylark (Alauda arvensis), vole (Microtus agrestis), a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros) and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra). This allows us to quantify the population implications of experimental modifications of landscape configuration and composition. Methodology/Principal Findings: Starting with a real agricultural landscape, we progressively reduced landscape complexity by (i) homogenizing habitat patch shapes, (ii) randomizing the locations of the patches, and (iii) randomizing the size of the patches. The first two steps increased landscape fragmentation. We assessed the effects of these manipulations on the long-term persistence of animal populations by measuring equilibrium population sizes and time to recovery after disturbance. Patch rearrangement and the presence of corridors had a large effect on the population dynamics of species whose local success depends on the surrounding terrain. Landscape modifications that reduced population sizes increased recovery times in the short-dispersing species, making small populations vulnerable to increasing disturbance. The species that were most strongly affected by large disturbances fluctuated little in population sizes in years when no perturbations took place. Significance: Traditional approaches to the management and conservation of populations use either classical methods of population analysis, which fail to adequately account for the spatial configurations of landscapes, or landscape ecology, which accounts for landscape structure but has difficulty predicting the dynamics of populations living in them. Here we show how realistic and replicable individual-based models can bridge the gap between non-spatial population theory and non-dynamic landscape ecology. A major strength of the approach is its ability to identify population vulnerabilities not detected by standard population viability analyses.

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The purpose of this paper is to make quantitative and qualitative analysis of foreign citizens who may participate on the Swedish labor market (in text refers to as ‘immigrants’). This research covers the period 1973-2005 and gives prediction figures of immigrant population, age and gender structure, and education attainment in 2010. To cope with data regarding immigrants from different countries, the population was divided into six groups. The main chapter is divided into two parts. The first part specifies division of immigrants into groups by country of origin according to geographical, ethnical, economical and historical criteria. Brief characteristics and geographic position, dynamic and structure description were given for each group; historical review explain rapid changes in immigrant population. Statistical models for description and estimation future population were given. The second part specifies education and qualification level of the immigrants according to international and Swedish standards. Models for estimating age and gender structure, level of education and professional orientation of immigrants in different groups are given. Inferences were made regarding ethnic, gender and education structure of immigrants; the distribution of immigrants among Swedish counties is given. Discussion part presents the results of the research, gives perspectives for the future brief evaluation of the role of immigrants on the Swedish labor market.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) may be used in biodiversity studies and commercial tasks like traceability, paternity testing and selection for suitable genotypes. Twenty-seven SNPs were characterized and genotyped on 250 individuals belonging to eight Italian goat breeds. Multilocus genotype data were used to infer population structure and assign individuals to populations. To estimate the number of groups (K) to test in population structure analysis we used likelihood values and variance of the bootstrap samples, deriving optimal K from a drop in the likelihood and a rise in the variance plots against K.

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BACKGROUND: Rotaviruses (RV) are the most common cause of dehydrating gastroenteritis requiring hospitalisation in children <5 years of age. A new generation of safe and effective RV vaccines is available. Accurate data describing the current burden of RV disease in the community are needed to devise appropriate strategies for vaccine usage. METHODS: Retrospective, population-based analysis of RV hospitalisations in children <5 years of age during a 5-year period (1999-2003) in a both urban and rural area inhabited by 12% of the Swiss population. RESULTS: Of 406 evaluable cases, 328 were community-acquired RV infections in children <5 years of age. RV accounted for 38% of all hospitalisations for gastroenteritis. The overall hospitalisation incidence in the <5-year-old was 1.5/1000 child-years (peak incidence, 2.6/1000 child-years in children aged 13-24 months). The incidence of community-acquired RV hospitalisations was significantly greater in children of non-Swiss origin (3.0 vs. 1.1/1000 child-years, relative risk 2.7; 95% CI 2.2-3.4), who were younger, but tended to be less severely dehydrated on admission than Swiss children. In comparison with children from urban areas, RV hospitalisation incidence was significantly lower among those residing in the remote mountain area (0.71 vs. 1.71/1000 child years, relative risk 2.2, 95% CI 1.6-3.1). CONCLUSION: Population-based RV hospitalisation incidence was low in comparison with other European countries. Significantly greater hospitalisation rates among children living in urban areas and those from non-Swiss families indicate that factors other than the severity of RV-induced dehydration are important driving forces of hospital admission.

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Germination of macroconidia and/or microconidia of 24 strains of Fusarium solani, F. chlamydosporum, F. culmorum, F. equiseti, F. verticillioides, F. sambucinum, F. oxysporum and F. proliferatum isolated from fluvial channels and sea beds of the south-eastern coast of Spain, and three control strains (F. oxysporum isolated from affected cultures) was studied in distilled water in response to a range of water potentials adjusted with NaCI. (0, -13.79, -41.79, -70.37, -99.56 and -144.54 bars). The vialibility (UFC/ml) of suspension was also tested in three time periods (0,24 and 48h). Conidia always germinated in distilled water. The pattern of conidial germination obseved of F. verticillioides, F. oxysporum, F. proliferatum, F. chlamydosporum and F. culmorum was similar. A great diminution of spore germination was found in -13.79 bars solutions. Spore germination percentage for F. solani isolates was maximal at 48 h. and -13.79 bars with 21.33% spore germination, 16% higher than germination in distilled water. F. equiseti shows the maximum germination percentage in -144.54 bars solution in 24 h time with 12.36% germination. These results did not agree with those obtained in the viability test where maximum germination was found in distilled water. The viability analysis showed the great capacity of F. verticilloides strains to form viable colonies, even in such extreme conditions as -144,54 bars after 24 h F. proliferatum colony formation was prevented in the range of -70.37 bars. These results show the clear affectation of water potential to conidia germination of Fusaria. The ability of certain species of Fusarium to develop a saprophytic life in the salt water of the Mediterraneam Sea could be certain. Successful germination, even under high salty media conditions, suggests taht Fusarium spp. could have a competitive advantage over other soil fungi in crops irrigated with saline water. In the specific case of F. solani, water potential of -13.79 bars affected germination positively. It could indicate that F. solani has an special physiological mechanism of survival in low water potential environments.

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O lobo-guará é uma espécie de ampla distribuição na América do Sul, tendo no Brasil sua maior área de ocorrência. No entanto, as modificações das áreas naturais principalmente destinadas à agropecuária tornam a espécie vulnerável à extinção. A investigação objetivou conhecer em larga escala a área de distribuição potencial gerada por atributos ambientais favoráveis e áreas adequadas à sua ocorrência nos biomas brasileiros e investigar como a espécie responde à estrutura da paisagem, avaliando os efeitos de ambientes modificados pelo homem na sua ecologia espacial, nos padrões de atividade e na movimentação. Modelos de distribuição de espécie foram gerados pelo Maxent, utilizando uma base de pontos de localização de presença a partir de 2000 para o Cerrado (Ce), Pantanal (Pa), Mata Atlântica (MA) e Pampas (Pp) e um conjunto de onze variáveis ambientais não correlacionadas (topográficas, climáticas e paisagísticas). Para análises de ecologia espacial, das atividades e de movimentação, utilizou-se localizações de telemetria (GPS) de animais habitantes de áreas protegidas (AP), e indivíduos em paisagens modificados (AM). Análises de áreas de vida (AV) foram realizadas utilizando o estimador AKDE e associadas com classificação da paisagem local. Os modelos de distribuição do lobo-guará apresentaram uma área de distribuição potencial de 78% do total dos biomas. Apesar de possuírem grandes proporções de áreas adequadas (Ce, 90%; Pa, 93%; MA, 65% e Pp, 6%), somente um pequeno percentual (4,4% do Ce e 4,7% da MA) possui adequabilidade ambiental acima de 50%. Dos atributos que favorecem sua presença, a altitude (para todos os biomas), a precipitação (Ce e Pa), diferenças de temperatura e uso e cobertura do solo (Ma e Pp) foram os mais importantes. Em nível local, animais apresentaram média de AV de 90Km2 em AP e 41Km2 em AM, uma diferença significativa (p<0,01) com áreas diretamente proporcionais ao percentual de áreas naturais na paisagem. Ainda, apesar dos padrões regulares de atividade não mostrarem grandes mudanças, o período de repouso foi significativamente maior (p<0,01) entre os animais AM (46% do dia) que em animais AP (25% do dia). Lobos-guarás de AP e AM não apresentaram grandes diferenças no deslocamento diário com média geral de 14km caminhados por dia, com comprimentos de passos de 1Km. Diferenças no comprimento de passo foram relacionadas à composição da diversidade de contato de classes da paisagem com a proporção de ambientes naturais no passo (quanto maior as variáveis, maior o passo). Passos menores refletem menor persistência de movimento interferindo no deslocamento diário. Com os resultados desse estudo identificou-se a MA e Pa muito importantes, mas o Ce como bioma mais adequado à espécie. Foram encontrados indícios de que a estrutura de suas AV, o uso da paisagem, as atividades e movimentação são afetados pela paisagem modificada. Isso pode comprometer a viabilidade populacional, interferindo na presença em uma área e refletindo no seu potencial de distribuição. As estratégias de manejo de uso do solo, e a recuperação e conexão de áreas adequadas são urgentes e necessárias para que o lobo-guará permaneça presente e funcional nas paisagens dos biomas brasileiros.

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The theoretical impacts of anthropogenic habitat degradation on genetic resources have been well articulated. Here we use a simulation approach to assess the magnitude of expected genetic change, and review 31 studies of 23 neotropical tree species to assess whether empirical case studies conform to theory. Major differences in the sensitivity of measures to detect the genetic health of degraded populations were obvious. Most studies employing genetic diversity (nine out of 13) found no significant consequences, yet most that assessed progeny inbreeding (six out of eight), reproductive output (seven out of 10) and fitness (all six) highlighted significant impacts. These observations are in line with theory, where inbreeding is observed immediately following impact, but genetic diversity is lost slowly over subsequent generations, which for trees may take decades. Studies also highlight the ecological, not just genetic, consequences of habitat degradation that can cause reduced seed set and progeny fitness. Unexpectedly, two studies examining pollen flow using paternity analysis highlight an extensive network of gene flow at smaller spatial scales (less than 10 km). Gene flow can thus mitigate against loss of genetic diversity and assist in long-term population viability, even in degraded landscapes. Unfortunately, the surveyed studies were too few and heterogeneous to examine concepts of population size thresholds and genetic resilience in relation to life history. Future suggested research priorities include undertaking integrated studies on a range of species in the same landscapes; better documentation of the extent and duration of impact; and most importantly, combining neutral marker, pollination dynamics, ecological consequences, and progeny fitness assessment within single studies.

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Defining the pharmacokinetics of drugs in overdose is complicated. Deliberate self-poisoning is generally impulsive and associated with poor accuracy in dose history. In addition, early blood samples are rarely collected to characterize the whole plasma-concentration time profile and the effect of decontamination on the pharmacokinetics is uncertain. The aim of this study was to explore a fully Bayesian methodology for population pharmacokinetic analysis of data that arose from deliberate self-poisoning with citalopram. Prior information on the pharmacokinetic parameters was elicited from 14 published studies on citalopram when taken in therapeutic doses. The data set included concentration-time data from 53 patients studied after 63 citalopram overdose events (dose range: 20-1700 mg). Activated charcoal was administered between 0.5 and 4 h after 17 overdose events. The clinical investigator graded the veracity of the patients' dosing history on a 5-point ordinal scale. Inclusion of informative priors stabilised the pharmacokinetic model and the population mean values could be estimated well. There were no indications of non-linear clearance after excessive doses. The final model included an estimated uncertainty of the dose amount which in a simulation study was shown to not affect the model's ability to characterise the effects of activated charcoal. The effect of activated charcoal on clearance and bioavailability was pronounced and resulted in a 72% increase and 22% decrease, respectively. These findings suggest charcoal administration is potentially beneficial after citalopram overdose. The methodology explored seems promising for exploring the dose-exposure relationship in the toxicological settings.

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Aims - To characterize the population pharmacokinetics of ranitidine in critically ill children and to determine the influence of various clinical and demographic factors on its disposition. Methods - Data were collected prospectively from 78 paediatric patients (n = 248 plasma samples) who received oral or intravenous ranitidine for prophylaxis against stress ulcers, gastrointestinal bleeding or the treatment of gastro-oesophageal reflux. Plasma samples were analysed using high-performance liquid chromatography, and the data were subjected to population pharmacokinetic analysis using nonlinear mixed-effects modelling. Results - A one-compartment model best described the plasma concentration profile, with an exponential structure for interindividual errors and a proportional structure for intra-individual error. After backward stepwise elimination, the final model showed a significant decrease in objective function value (−12.618; P < 0.001) compared with the weight-corrected base model. Final parameter estimates for the population were 32.1 l h−1 for total clearance and 285 l for volume of distribution, both allometrically modelled for a 70 kg adult. Final estimates for absorption rate constant and bioavailability were 1.31 h−1 and 27.5%, respectively. No significant relationship was found between age and weight-corrected ranitidine pharmacokinetic parameters in the final model, with the covariate for cardiac failure or surgery being shown to reduce clearance significantly by a factor of 0.46. Conclusions - Currently, ranitidine dose recommendations are based on children's weights. However, our findings suggest that a dosing scheme that takes into consideration both weight and cardiac failure/surgery would be more appropriate in order to avoid administration of higher or more frequent doses than necessary.