Harvest control rule vs optimal harvesting of an age-structured population: The case of the Ibero-Atlantic Sardine Fishery

Research Masters

Lung cancer risk associated with occupational exposure to nickel, chromium VI, and cadmium in two population-based case-control studies in Montreal.

Cancer du poumon associé à l’exposition au nickel, au chrome VI et au cadmium dans le milieu de travail utilisant deux études populationnelles cas-témoins à Montréal. Au début des années 1990, le nickel, le chrome VI et le cadmium ont été classés en tant qu’agents cancérigènes de classe 1 par le CIRC (Centre International de Recherche sur le Cancer). Cependant, les résultats des études ayant permis la classification de ces métaux n’ont pas toujours été reproduits, et d’importantes questions demeurent quant aux effets de ces métaux à de faibles niveaux d’exposition. Un plus grand nombre de recherches empiriques est donc nécessaire afin de réaffirmer la cancérogénicité de ces agents, et d’identifier les circonstances dans lesquelles ils peuvent être néfastes. L'objectif de cette étude était d'explorer la relation entre l’exposition à un des métaux (soit le nickel, le chrome VI, ou le cadmium) et les risques subséquents de développer un cancer du poumon chez des travailleurs provenant de différents milieux de travail qui sont exposés à ces métaux à de différents degrés. Deux études cas-témoins de base populationnelle menées à Montréal ont fourni les données nécessaires pour examiner la cancérogénicité de ces métaux. La première étude était menée entre 1979 et 1986 chez des hommes âgés de 35 à 70 ans ayant un cancer dans l’un de 19 sites anatomiques de cancer sélectionnés. La seconde étude était menée entre 1996 et 2001 chez des hommes et des femmes âgés de 35 à 75 ans, avec un diagnostic de tumeur maligne au poumon. Dans ces deux études, les cas ont été recensés dans tous les hôpitaux de l'île de Montréal, tandis que les contrôles populationnels appariés par âge et stratifiés par sexe, ont été sélectionnés des listes électorales. Une entrevue avec chaque sujet a permis d'obtenir un historique d'emploi détaillé ainsi que des informations précises sur les facteurs de risques socio-économiques et personnels. Les descriptions de poste ont été évaluées par une équipe d'experts chimistes et hygiénistes afin de déterminer si le sujet a été exposé à chaque agent, et pour mesurer à la fois la concentration et la durée de chaque exposition, ainsi que l’exposition cumulative tout au long de la vie de chaque participant. Pour déterminer si une exposition à l’un des trois métaux en cause était associée à une augmentation de l'incidence du cancer du poumon, des données ont été analysées par régression logistique : des ajustements ont été effectués pour des facteurs de confusion pertinents incluant un historique détaillé du tabagisme. Des mesures catégoriques d'exposition cumulée ont été également analysées, ainsi que la modification des effets par le tabagisme. Les deux études ont été analysées séparément, puis par la suite combinées afin d'augmenter la puissance statistique. Les niveaux d'exposition mesurés dans cette population ne semblaient pas poser un excès de risque de cancer du poumon pour les travailleurs exposés au chrome VI. Cependant, ceux qui ont été exposés au nickel ont subi une augmentation significative du risque, et ce, quel que soit leur niveau d'exposition. Le risque de développer un cancer du poumon suite à une exposition au cadmium était élevé, mais pas de manière significative. Pour chacun des trois métaux, le risque de cancer du poumon était très élevé parmi les non-fumeurs, mais pas parmi les fumeurs. L’effet combiné du tabagisme et de l’exposition aux métaux était compatible avec un excès de risque additif. Cependant, les intervalles de confiance dans cette étude tendaient à être larges, et une faiblesse de puissance statistique peut limiter l’interprétation de certains résultats. Cette étude est unique dans la mesure où elle a fourni des preuves empiriques sur les risques de développer le cancer du poumon liés aux faibles niveaux d’exposition au nickel, au chrome VI, ou au cadmium provenant de divers contextes de travail. Dans la plupart des autres études, la majorité des expositions pertinentes n’ont pas été bien contrôlées. À l'inverse, cette étude a bénéficié de la collecte et de la disponibilité d'information détaillée concernant le tabagisme et d’autres facteurs de risque. Les résultats de cette étude ont d'importantes conséquences pour la santé publique, tant au niveau de la détermination des risques pour les travailleurs actuellement exposés à ces métaux, qu'au niveau de l’évaluation des risques pour la population en général, elle-même exposée à ces métaux par le biais de la pollution et de la fumée de cigarette. Cette analyse contribuera fort probablement à une réévaluation par le CIRC de la cancérogénicité de ces métaux. L'exploration de la relation entre les risques de cancer du poumon et l'exposition au nickel, au chrome VI et au cadmium est donc opportune et pertinente.

Control of a Population of Norway Rats Resistant to Anticoagulant Rodenticides

For the first time, it has been unequivocally shown that multiple-feed second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides were ineffective against a population of rats in N.W. Berkshire, UK because of an unusually high prevalence and high degree of resistance. Use of the non-anticoagulant rodenticide calciferol led to a substantial reduction in the population, although primary poisoning of small birds appeared to be greater than with anticoagulant baits. There was strong evidence that many of the surviving rats had developed an aversion towards calciferol-treated bait. A reduction in the degree of anticoagulant resistance in the population was evident after a period of 17 months without anticoagulant use. The long-term strategy to manage the resistant population should integrate non-anticoagulant and anticoagulant rodenticide use to take advantage of possible pleiotropic costs of resistance.

The projected impact of population and high-risk strategies for risk-factor control on coronary heart disease and stroke events

Objective: To model the impact of both population and high-risk strategies on cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes.

Design, setting and participants: A CVD risk-factor survey was carried out in rural south-eastern Australia from 2004 to 2006. Using a stratified random sample, data for 1116 participants aged 35–74 years were analysed. Applying the Framingham risk equations to risk-factor data, 5-year probabilities of a coronary heart disease event, stroke and cardiovascular event were calculated. The effect of different changes in risk factors were modelled to assess the extent to which cardiovascular diseases can be prevented by changing the risk factors at a population level (population strategy), among the high-risk individuals (high-risk strategy) or both.

Results: Among men, a population strategy could reduce cardiovascular events by 19.3% (193 per 1000 per 5 years), the high-risk strategy by 12.6% (126 per 1000) and a combined strategy by 24.1% (241 per 1000); and among women, by 21.9% (219 per 1000), 19.0% (190 per 1000) and 28.7% (287 per 1000), respectively.

Conclusions: For prevention of CVD in Australia, it is important both to treat high-risk individuals and to reduce the mean risk-factor levels in the population. We show how risk-factor survey data can be used to set targets for prevention and to monitor progress in line with the recommendations of the National Preventative Health Taskforce.

Spatial and temporal population interactions between the parasitoids Cotesia flavipes and Tachinidae flies: considerations on the adverse effects of biological control practice

Biological control of Diatraea saccharalis is regarded as one of the best examples of successful classical biological control in Brazil. Since the introduction of the exotic parasitoid Cotesia flavipes, the decrease of D. saccharalis infestation in sugarcane fields has been attributed to the effectiveness of this agent. Recently, the native tachinid fly parasitoids (Lydella minense and Paratheresia claripalpis) have also been implicated in the success. Here, we investigated the spatial and temporal population interactions between C. flavipes and the tachinid flies, and provide a critical analysis of the biological control practice, focusing on the undesirable effects of introductions of exotic natural enemies. To investigate these questions, a large data set comprising information from two sugarcane mills located in the state of São Paulo, Brazil (Barra and Sao Joao Mills), was analysed. Analysis of the correlation between C. flavipes and tachinid fly population densities through time revealed that such populations were inversely correlated in the Sao Joao Mill and not correlated in the Barra Mill. Logistic regressions were computed to investigate the proportion of sites occupied by the parasitoid species at both mills as a function of time. An increasing trend in the proportion of sites occupied by C. flavipes was observed, with a concomitant decrease of the sites occupied by tachinid flies. This effect was more intense in the Sao Joao Mill. Thus, there is a convincing possibility that constant releases of C. flavipes decreased the tachinid fly populations, resulting in an undesirable effect of biological control practice.

Optimal pest control problem in population dynamics

One of the main goals of the pest control is to maintain the density of the pest population in the equilibrium level below economic damages. For reaching this goal, the optimal pest control problem was divided in two parts. In the first part, the two optimal control functions were considered. These functions move the ecosystem pest-natural enemy at an equilibrium state below the economic injury level. In the second part, the one optimal control function stabilizes the ecosystem in this level, minimizing the functional that characterizes quadratic deviations of this level. The first problem was resolved through the application of the Maximum Principle of Pontryagin. The Dynamic Programming was used for the resolution of the second optimal pest control problem.

Mathematical modeling and control of population systems: Applications in biological pest control

The aim of this paper is to apply methods from optimal control theory, and from the theory of dynamic systems to the mathematical modeling of biological pest control. The linear feedback control problem for nonlinear systems has been formulated in order to obtain the optimal pest control strategy only through the introduction of natural enemies. Asymptotic stability of the closed-loop nonlinear Kolmogorov system is guaranteed by means of a Lyapunov function which can clearly be seen to be the solution of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, thus guaranteeing both stability and optimality. Numerical simulations for three possible scenarios of biological pest control based on the Lotka-Volterra models are provided to show the effectiveness of this method. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A model for optimal chemical control of leaf area damaged by fungi population - Parameter dependence

We present a model to study a fungi population submitted to chemical control, incorporating the fungicide application directly into the model. From that, we obtain an optimal control strategy that minimizes both the fungicide application (cost) and leaf area damaged by fungi population during the interval between the moment when the disease is detected (t = 0) and the time of harvest (t = t(f)). Initially, the parameters of the model are considered constant. Later, we consider the apparent infection rate depending on the time (and the temperature) and do some simulations to illustrate and to compare with the constant case.

Frequency of HLA-B27 and its alleles in patients with Reiter syndrome: comparison with the frequency in other spondyloarthropathies and a healthy control population

This retrospective study analyzed the HLA-B*27 alleles in a group of 20 consecutive patients with the diagnosis of Reiter syndrome (RS) followed in a tertiary referral university hospital in Brazil, during the period 1990-2006, and compared the data with that observed in other patients with spondyloarthropathies followed at the same institution. Eight cases were associated to gastrointestinal infection, eight cases to previous urethritis, and four cases presented no established preceding infection. HLA-B*27 alleles were typed by polymerase chain reaction-amplified DNA hybridized with sequence-specific oligonucleotide probes (HLA-B*2701 to HLA-B*2721). They were compared to a group of 108 patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS), 40 with undifferentiated spondyloarthropathy (uSpA) and 111 healthy controls. Among the 20 patients, 17 were HLA-B*27 positive (85%). Two HLA-B*27 alleles were observed: HLA-B*2705 (65%) and HLA-B*2702 (35%). In the other spondyloarthropathies, the observed alleles were HLA-B*2705 (90% in AS and 92.5% in uSpA), HLA-B*2702 (8% in AS and 5% in uSpA), HLA-B*2704 (1% in AS and 2.5% in uSpA) and HLA-B*2713 (1% in AS). Among the 111 healthy controls, 80% presented HLA-B*2705, followed by HLA-B*2702 in 10%, HLA-B*2703 in 6%, HLA-B*2707 in 3% and HLA-B*2713 in 1%. Concluding, in the HLA-B*27 positive patients with RS in this study there was predominance of HLA-B*2705 allele, in a lower frequency than that observed in patients with other spondyloarthropathies and healthy controls.

Mitochondrial DNA control region diversity in a population from Espirito Santo state, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Chemical control of different digitaria insularis populations and management of a glyphosate-resistant population

This study aimed to control different populations of Digitaria insularis by glyphosate herbicide, isolated and mixed, besides the combination of methods (chemical and mechanical) to manage resistant adult plants. Three experiments were conducted, one in pots which were maintained under non-controlled conditions and two under field conditions. In the experiment in pots, twelve populations of D. insularis were sprayed with isolated glyphosate (1.44 and 2.16 kg a.e. ha(-1)) and mixed (1.44 and 2.16 kg a.e. ha(-1)) with quizalofop-p tefuryl (0.12 kg i.a. ha(-1)). The treatment of 1.44 kg a.e. ha(-1) of glyphosate plus 0.12 kg a.i. ha(-1) of quizalofop was sufficient for adequate control (>95%) of all populations. Population 11 (area of grain production in Itumbiara, GO) was considered sensitive to glyphosate. Others populations were moderately sensitive or tolerant to the herbicide. In the field, the plants of D. insularis of one of the experiments were mowed and, in the other, there were not. Eight treatments with herbicides [isolated glyphosate (1.44 and 2.16 kg a.e. ha(-1)) and mixed (1.44 and 2.16 kg a.e. ha(-1)) with quizalofop-p-tefuryl at 0.12 kg a.i. ha(-1)), clethodim at 0.108 kg a.i. ha(-1)) or nicosulfuron at 0.06 kg a.i. ha(-1))] were assessed, in combination with or without sequential application of the standard treatment, sprayed 15 days after the first application. The combination of the mechanic control with the application of glyphosate (2.16 and 1.44 kg a.e. ha(-1)) plus quizalofop-p-tefuryl (0.12 kg a.i. ha(-1)) or clethodim (0.108 kg a.i. ha(-1)), associated to the sequential application, was the most effective strategy for the management of adult plants of resistant D. insularis.

ANIMAL POPULATION ECOLOGY AND CONTROL FUNDAMENTALS

Expensive, extensive and apparently lethal control measures have been applied against many species of pest vertebrates and invertebrates for decades. In spite of this, few pests have been annihilated, and in many cases the stated goals have become progressively more modest, so that now we speak of saving foliage or a crop, rather than extermination. It is of interest to examine the reasons why animals are so difficult to exterminate, because this matter, of course, has implications for the type of control policy we pursue in the future. Also, it has implications for the problem of evaluating comparatively various resource management strategies. There are many biological mechanisms which could, in principle, enhance the performance of an animal population after control measures have been applied against it. These are of four main types: genetic, physiological, populationa1, and environmental. We are all familiar with the fact that in applying a control measure, we are, from the pest's point of view, applying intense selection pressure in favor of those individuals that may be preadapted to withstand the type of control being used. The well-known book by Brown (1958) documents, for invertebrates, a tremendous number of such cases. Presumably, vertebrates can show the same responses. Not quite so familiar is the evidence that sub-lethal doses of a lethal chemical may have a physiologically stimulating effect on population performance of the few individuals that happen to survive (Kuenen, 1958). With further research, we may find that this phenomenon occurs throughout the animal kingdom. Still less widely recognized is the fact that pest control elicits a populational homeostatic mechanism, as well as genetic and physiological homeostatic mechanisms. Many ecologists, such as Odum and Allee (1950, Slobodkin (1955), Klomp (1962) and the present author (1961, 1963) have pointed out that the curve for generation survival, or the curve for trend index as a function of last generations density is of great importance in population dynamics.