A fully Bayesian approach to inference for Coxian phase-type distributions with covariate dependent mean

Phase-type distributions represent the time to absorption for a finite state Markov chain in continuous time, generalising the exponential distribution and providing a flexible and useful modelling tool. We present a new reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for performing a fully Bayesian analysis of the popular Coxian subclass of phase-type models; the convenient Coxian representation involves fewer parameters than a more general phase-type model. The key novelty of our approach is that we model covariate dependence in the mean whilst using the Coxian phase-type model as a very general residual distribution. Such incorporation of covariates into the model has not previously been attempted in the Bayesian literature. A further novelty is that we also propose a reversible jump scheme for investigating structural changes to the model brought about by the introduction of Erlang phases. Our approach addresses more questions of inference than previous Bayesian treatments of this model and is automatic in nature. We analyse an example dataset comprising lengths of hospital stays of a sample of patients collected from two Australian hospitals to produce a model for a patient's expected length of stay which incorporates the effects of several covariates. This leads to interesting conclusions about what contributes to length of hospital stay with implications for hospital planning. We compare our results with an alternative classical analysis of these data.

Adaptive and phase transition behavior in performance of discrete multi-articular actions by degenerate neurobiological systems

The identification of attractors is one of the key tasks in studies of neurobiological coordination from a dynamical systems perspective, with a considerable body of literature resulting from this task. However, with regards to typical movement models investigated, the overwhelming majority of actions studied previously belong to the class of continuous, rhythmical movements. In contrast, very few studies have investigated coordination of discrete movements, particularly multi-articular discrete movements. In the present study, we investigated phase transition behavior in a basketball throwing task where participants were instructed to shoot at the basket from different distances. Adopting the ubiquitous scaling paradigm, throwing distance was manipulated as a candidate control parameter. Using a cluster analysis approach, clear phase transitions between different movement patterns were observed in performance of only two of eight participants. The remaining participants used a single movement pattern and varied it according to throwing distance, thereby exhibiting hysteresis effects. Results suggested that, in movement models involving many biomechanical degrees of freedom in degenerate systems, greater movement variation across individuals is available for exploitation. This observation stands in contrast to movement variation typically observed in studies using more constrained bi-manual movement models. This degenerate system behavior provides new insights and poses fresh challenges to the dynamical systems theoretical approach, requiring further research beyond conventional movement models.

Shifting the child protection juggernaut to earlier intervention

"For every complex problem there is a solution that is simple, neat and wrong (M.L. Mencken, US writer and social commentator). Nowhere is this quote more apt than when applied to finding over-simplified solutions to the complex problem of looking after the safety and well-being of vulnerable children. The easiest formula is, of course, to ‘rescue children from dysfunctional families’, a line taken recently in the monograph by the right wing think tank, Centre for Independent Studies (Sammut & O’Brien 2009). It is reasoning with fatal flaws. This commentary provides a timely reminder of the strong arguments which lie behind the national and international shift to supporting children and families through universal and specialist community-based services, rather than weighting all resources into statutory child protection interventions. A brief outline of the value of developing the resources to support children in their families, and the problems with 'rescuing' children through the child protection system are discussed.

Beneficial effects of exercise : shifting the focus from body weight to other markers of health

Background: Exercise is widely promoted as a method of weight management, while the other health benefits are often ignored. The purpose of this study was to examine whether exercise-induced improvements in health are influenced by changes in body weight. Methods: Fifty-eight sedentary overweight/obese men and women (BMI 31.8 (SD 4.5) kg/m2) participated in a 12-week supervised aerobic exercise intervention (70% heart rate max, five times a week, 500 kcal per session). Body composition, anthropometric parameters, aerobic capacity, blood pressure and acute psychological response to exercise were measured at weeks 0 and 12. Results: The mean reduction in body weight was −3.3 (3.63) kg (p<0.01). However, 26 of the 58 participants failed to attain the predicted weight loss estimated from individuals’ exercise-induced energy expenditure. Their mean weight loss was only −0.9 (1.8) kg (p<0.01). Despite attaining a lower-than-predicted weight reduction, these individuals experienced significant increases in aerobic capacity (6.3 (6.0) ml/kg/min; p<0.01), and a decreased systolic (−6.00 (11.5) mm Hg; p<0.05) and diastolic blood pressure (−3.9 (5.8) mm Hg; p<0.01), waist circumference (−3.7 (2.7) cm; p<0.01) and resting heart rate (−4.8 (8.9) bpm, p<0.001). In addition, these individuals experienced an acute exercise-induced increase in positive mood. Conclusions: These data demonstrate that significant and meaningful health benefits can be achieved even in the presence of lower-than-expected exercise-induced weight loss. A less successful reduction in body weight does not undermine the beneficial effects of aerobic exercise. From a public health perspective, exercise should be encouraged and the emphasis on weight loss reduced.

Digital kids, analogue students : a mixed methods study of students' engagement with a school-based Web 2.0 learning innovation

The inquiry documented in this thesis is located at the nexus of technological innovation and traditional schooling. As we enter the second decade of a new century, few would argue against the increasingly urgent need to integrate digital literacies with traditional academic knowledge. Yet, despite substantial investments from governments and businesses, the adoption and diffusion of contemporary digital tools in formal schooling remain sluggish. To date, research on technology adoption in schools tends to take a deficit perspective of schools and teachers, with the lack of resources and teacher ‘technophobia’ most commonly cited as barriers to digital uptake. Corresponding interventions that focus on increasing funding and upskilling teachers, however, have made little difference to adoption trends in the last decade. Empirical evidence that explicates the cultural and pedagogical complexities of innovation diffusion within long-established conventions of mainstream schooling, particularly from the standpoint of students, is wanting. To address this knowledge gap, this thesis inquires into how students evaluate and account for the constraints and affordances of contemporary digital tools when they engage with them as part of their conventional schooling. It documents the attempted integration of a student-led Web 2.0 learning initiative, known as the Student Media Centre (SMC), into the schooling practices of a long-established, high-performing independent senior boys’ school in urban Australia. The study employed an ‘explanatory’ two-phase research design (Creswell, 2003) that combined complementary quantitative and qualitative methods to achieve both breadth of measurement and richness of characterisation. In the initial quantitative phase, a self-reported questionnaire was administered to the senior school student population to determine adoption trends and predictors of SMC usage (N=481). Measurement constructs included individual learning dispositions (learning and performance goals, cognitive playfulness and personal innovativeness), as well as social and technological variables (peer support, perceived usefulness and ease of use). Incremental predictive models of SMC usage were conducted using Classification and Regression Tree (CART) modelling: (i) individual-level predictors, (ii) individual and social predictors, and (iii) individual, social and technological predictors. Peer support emerged as the best predictor of SMC usage. Other salient predictors include perceived ease of use and usefulness, cognitive playfulness and learning goals. On the whole, an overwhelming proportion of students reported low usage levels, low perceived usefulness and a lack of peer support for engaging with the digital learning initiative. The small minority of frequent users reported having high levels of peer support and robust learning goal orientations, rather than being predominantly driven by performance goals. These findings indicate that tensions around social validation, digital learning and academic performance pressures influence students’ engagement with the Web 2.0 learning initiative. The qualitative phase that followed provided insights into these tensions by shifting the analytics from individual attitudes and behaviours to shared social and cultural reasoning practices that explain students’ engagement with the innovation. Six indepth focus groups, comprising 60 students with different levels of SMC usage, were conducted, audio-recorded and transcribed. Textual data were analysed using Membership Categorisation Analysis. Students’ accounts converged around a key proposition. The Web 2.0 learning initiative was useful-in-principle but useless-in-practice. While students endorsed the usefulness of the SMC for enhancing multimodal engagement, extending peer-topeer networks and acquiring real-world skills, they also called attention to a number of constraints that obfuscated the realisation of these design affordances in practice. These constraints were cast in terms of three binary formulations of social and cultural imperatives at play within the school: (i) ‘cool/uncool’, (ii) ‘dominant staff/compliant student’, and (iii) ‘digital learning/academic performance’. The first formulation foregrounds the social stigma of the SMC among peers and its resultant lack of positive network benefits. The second relates to students’ perception of the school culture as authoritarian and punitive with adverse effects on the very student agency required to drive the innovation. The third points to academic performance pressures in a crowded curriculum with tight timelines. Taken together, findings from both phases of the study provide the following key insights. First, students endorsed the learning affordances of contemporary digital tools such as the SMC for enhancing their current schooling practices. For the majority of students, however, these learning affordances were overshadowed by the performative demands of schooling, both social and academic. The student participants saw engagement with the SMC in-school as distinct from, even oppositional to, the conventional social and academic performance indicators of schooling, namely (i) being ‘cool’ (or at least ‘not uncool’), (ii) sufficiently ‘compliant’, and (iii) achieving good academic grades. Their reasoned response therefore, was simply to resist engagement with the digital learning innovation. Second, a small minority of students seemed dispositionally inclined to negotiate the learning affordances and performance constraints of digital learning and traditional schooling more effectively than others. These students were able to engage more frequently and meaningfully with the SMC in school. Their ability to adapt and traverse seemingly incommensurate social and institutional identities and norms is theorised as cultural agility – a dispositional construct that comprises personal innovativeness, cognitive playfulness and learning goals orientation. The logic then is ‘both and’ rather than ‘either or’ for these individuals with a capacity to accommodate both learning and performance in school, whether in terms of digital engagement and academic excellence, or successful brokerage across multiple social identities and institutional affiliations within the school. In sum, this study takes us beyond the familiar terrain of deficit discourses that tend to blame institutional conservatism, lack of resourcing and teacher resistance for low uptake of digital technologies in schools. It does so by providing an empirical base for the development of a ‘third way’ of theorising technological and pedagogical innovation in schools, one which is more informed by students as critical stakeholders and thus more relevant to the lived culture within the school, and its complex relationship to students’ lives outside of school. It is in this relationship that we find an explanation for how these individuals can, at the one time, be digital kids and analogue students.

Do derivatives have a role in the risk-shifting behaviour of fund managers?

In this paper we examine the extent to which derivatives are used to affect the risk-shifting behaviour of Australian equity fund managers. We find, after periods of good and poor performance, the risk-shifting behaviour of fund managers is different between derivative users and non-users. Our results support the gaming and active competition hypotheses but there is little support for the cash flow hypothesis. The study also allows for a complex reporting environment by analysing data across three alternate time periods: the calendar year, financial year and quarterly frames. Given that our results are not consistent across time periods for users and non-users of derivatives, some caution in interpretation is required.

Porous PLGA microspheres effectively loaded with BSA protein by electrospraying combined with phase separation in liquid nitrogen

Polymer microspheres loaded with bioactive particles, biomolecules, proteins, and/or growth factors play important roles in tissue engineering, drug delivery, and cell therapy. The conventional double emulsion method and a new method of electrospraying into liquid nitrogen were used to prepare bovine serum albumin (BAS)-loaded poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid) (PLGA) porous microspheres. The particle size, the surface morphology and the internal porous structure of the microspheres were observed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The loading efficiency, the encapsulation efficiency, and the release profile of the BSA-loaded PLGA microspheres were measured and studied. It was shown that the microspheres from double emulsion had smaller particle sizes (3-50 m), a less porous structure, a poor loading efficiency (5.2 %), and a poor encapsulation efficiency (43.5%). However, the microspheres from the electrospraying into liquid nitrogen had larger particle sizes (400-600 m), a highly porous structure, a high loading efficiency (12.2%), and a high encapsulation efficiency (93.8%). Thus the combination of electrospraying with freezing in liquid nitrogen and subsequent freeze drying represented a suitable way to produce polymer microspheres for effective loading and sustained release of proteins.

Electromyographic activity in lower limb muscles is temporally associated with the slow phase of oxygen uptake during cycling

Although the "slow" phase of pulmonary oxygen uptake (Vo2) appears to represent energetic processes in contracting muscle, electromyographic evidence tends not to support this. The present study assessed normalized integrated electromyographic (NIEMG) activity in eight muscles that act about the hip, knee and ankle during 8 min of moderate (ventilatory threshold) cycling in six male cyclists. (Vo2) was measured breath by breath during four repeated trials at each of the two intensities. Moderate and very heavy exercise followed a 4-min period of light exercise (50 W). During moderate exercise the slow (Vo2) phase was absent and NIEMG in all muscles did not increase after the first minute of exercise. During very heavy exercise, the slow phase emerged (time delay=58 ± 16 s) and increased progressively (time constant=120 ± 35 s) to an amplitude (0.83 ± 0.16 L/min) that was approximately 21% of the total (Vo2) response. This slow (Vo2) phase coincided with a significant increase in NIEMG in most muscles, and differences in NIEMG activities between the two intensities revealed "slow" muscle activation profiles that differed between muscles in terms of the onset, amplitude and shape of these profiles. This supports the hypothesis that the slow (Vo2) phase is a function of these different slow muscle activation profiles.

The land use and public transport accessibility index : phase two final report

The Urban Research Program (URP) was established in 2003 as strategic research and community engagement initiative of Griffith University. The strategic foci of the Urban Research Program are research and advocacy in an urban regional context. The Urban Research Program seeks to improve understanding of, and develop innovative responses to Australia's urban challenges and opportunities by providing training assistance. The authors aim to make the results of their research and advocacy work available as freely and widely as possible.

Grafted fluoropolymers as supports for solid-phase organic chemistry : preparation and characterization

Solid-phase organic chemistry has rapidly expanded in the last decade, and, as a consequence, so has the need for the development of supports that can withstand the extreme conditions required to facilitate some reactions. The authors here prepare a thermally stable, grafted fluoropolymer support (see Figure for an example) in three solvents, and found that the penetration of the graft was greatest in dichloromethane.