Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions

Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.

Population structure of Bactrocera dorsalis s.s., B. papayae and B. philippinensis (Diptera: Tephritidae) in southeast Asia: evidence for a single species hypothesis using mitochondrial DNA and wingshape data

Background Bactrocera dorsalis s.s. is a pestiferous tephritid fruit fly distributed from Pakistan to the Pacific, with the Thai/Malay peninsula its southern limit. Sister pest taxa, B. papayae and B. philippinensis, occur in the southeast Asian archipelago and the Philippines, respectively. The relationship among these species is unclear due to their high molecular and morphological similarity. This study analysed population structure of these three species within a southeast Asian biogeographical context to assess potential dispersal patterns and the validity of their current taxonomic status. Results Geometric morphometric results generated from 15 landmarks for wings of 169 flies revealed significant differences in wing shape between almost all sites following canonical variate analysis. For the combined data set there was a greater isolation-by-distance (IBD) effect under a ‘non-Euclidean’ scenario which used geographical distances within a biogeographical ‘Sundaland context’ (r2 = 0.772, P < 0.0001) as compared to a ‘Euclidean’ scenario for which direct geographic distances between sample sites was used (r2 = 0.217, P < 0.01). COI sequence data were obtained for 156 individuals and yielded 83 unique haplotypes with no correlation to current taxonomic designations via a minimum spanning network. BEAST analysis provided a root age and location of 540kya in northern Thailand, with migration of B. dorsalis s.l. into Malaysia 470kya and Sumatra 270kya. Two migration events into the Philippines are inferred. Sequence data revealed a weak but significant IBD effect under the ‘non-Euclidean’ scenario (r2 = 0.110, P < 0.05), with no historical migration evident between Taiwan and the Philippines. Results are consistent with those expected at the intra-specific level. Conclusions Bactrocera dorsalis s.s., B. papayae and B. philippinensis likely represent one species structured around the South China Sea, having migrated from northern Thailand into the southeast Asian archipelago and across into the Philippines. No migration is apparent between the Philippines and Taiwan. This information has implications for quarantine, trade and pest management.

Evolutionary genetics and human assisted movement of a globally invasive pest (Russian wheat aphid : Diuraphis noxia)

This PhD study has examined the population genetics of the Russian wheat aphid (RWA, Diuraphis noxia), one of the world’s most invasive agricultural pests, throughout its native and introduced global range. Firstly, this study investigated the geographic distribution of genetic diversity within and among RWA populations in western China. Analysis of mitochondrial data from 18 sites provided evidence for the long-term existence and expansion of RWAs in western China. The results refute the hypothesis that RWA is an exotic species only present in China since 1975. The estimated date of RWA expansion throughout western China coincides with the debut of wheat domestication and cultivation practices in western Asia in the Holocene. It is concluded that western China represents the limit of the far eastern native range of this species. Analysis of microsatellite data indicated high contemporary gene flow among northern populations in western China, while clear geographic isolation between northern and southern populations was identified across the Tianshan mountain range and extensive desert regions. Secondly, this study analyzed the worldwide pathway of invasion using both microsatellite and endosymbiont genetic data. Individual RWAs were obtained from native populations in Central Asia and the Middle East and invasive populations in Africa and the Americas. Results indicated two pathways of RWA invasion from 1) Syria in the Middle East to North Africa and 2) Turkey to South Africa, Mexico and then North and South America. Very little clone diversity was identified among invasive populations suggesting that a limited founder event occurred together with predominantly asexual reproduction and rapid population expansion. The most likely explanation for the rapid spread (within two years) from South Africa to the New World is by human movement, probably as a result of the transfer of wheat breeding material. Furthermore, the mitochondrial data revealed the presence of a universal haplotype and it is proposed that this haplotype is representative of a wheat associated super-clone that has gained dominance worldwide as a result of the widespread planting of domesticated wheat. Finally, this study examined salivary gland gene diversity to determine whether a functional basis for RWA invasiveness could be identified. Peroxidase DNA sequence data were obtained for a selection of worldwide RWA samples. Results demonstrated that most native populations were polymorphic while invasive populations were monomorphic, supporting previous conclusions relating to demographic founder effects in invasive populations. Purifying selection most likely explains the existence of a universal allele present in Middle Eastern populations, while balancing selection was evident in East Asian populations. Selection acting on the peroxidase gene may provide an allele-dependent advantage linked to the successful establishment of RWAs on wheat, and ultimately their invasion potential. In conclusion, this study is the most comprehensive molecular genetic investigation of RWA population genetics undertaken to date and provides significant insights into the source and pathway of global invasion and the potential existence of a wheat-adapted genotype that has colonised major wheat growing countries worldwide except for Australia. This research has major biosecurity implications for Australia’s grain industry.

Sampling stored-product insect pests : a comparison of four statistical sampling models for probability of pest detection

Background: Developing sampling strategies to target biological pests such as insects in stored grain is inherently difficult owing to species biology and behavioural characteristics. The design of robust sampling programmes should be based on an underlying statistical distribution that is sufficiently flexible to capture variations in the spatial distribution of the target species. Results: Comparisons are made of the accuracy of four probability-of-detection sampling models - the negative binomial model,1 the Poisson model,1 the double logarithmic model2 and the compound model3 - for detection of insects over a broad range of insect densities. Although the double log and negative binomial models performed well under specific conditions, it is shown that, of the four models examined, the compound model performed the best over a broad range of insect spatial distributions and densities. In particular, this model predicted well the number of samples required when insect density was high and clumped within experimental storages. Conclusions: This paper reinforces the need for effective sampling programs designed to detect insects over a broad range of spatial distributions. The compound model is robust over a broad range of insect densities and leads to substantial improvement in detection probabilities within highly variable systems such as grain storage.

Redescription of adult and larva of Colasposoma sellaturn Baly (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae: Eumolpinae): a pest of sweet potato in Australia

The genus Colasposorna Laporte is shown to be represented in Australia by a single species, C. sellaturn Baly (= C. barbaturn Harold, syn. conf.; = C. regulare Jacoby, syn. nov.). The adult and larva are described and lectotypes designated for C. sellaturn and C. regulare. Colasposoma sellaturn is recorded from the Northern Territory, northern Queensland and New Guinea. This species is a pest of Ipomoea batatas (sweet potato) in northern Queensland, where the adults damage stems and foliage and larvae may cause considerable damage to tubers. Its pest status is assessed and control measures discussed.

Cane Weevil Borer, Rhabdoscelus obscurus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), a pest of palms in Northern Queensland, Australia

In recent years the cultivation of ornamental palms (Arecaceae) has increased markedly in northern Queensland. Consequently, several insects have become important pests, particularly Rhabdoscelus obscurus (Boisduval), the cane weevil borer. The larvae of this beetle feed on various species of palms, making the plants unsaleable. Death or lodging of the trees may also result. This paper documents its pest status, derived from information in the literature and from consultation with local growers.

Damage potential of two Scarab species on groundnut

The damage potential of two phytophagous scarab larvae on groundnut (peanut) yield was determined. Holotrichia serrata, a root and pod feeding species from southern India, was studied in microplots while the damage potential of Heteronyx piceus, a pod feeder from Queensland, Australia, was determined by analysis of on-farm chemical-rate trials. H. serrata larva reduced groundnut yield by an average of 7.52 g/ larva. In crops yielding less and more than 1900 kg ha-1, H. piceus reduced yield by 4.20 g and 1.43 g/ larva, respectively. These damage potential estimates were used to determine provisional economic injury levels (EIL). For H. piceus, the provisional EIL is 1.67 and 4.91 larvae/ row-metre in crops yielding less and more than 1900 kg/ha, respectively. For H. serrata, the provisional EIL is one H. serrata larva in 7.1 m2. As more than 70% of southern India groundnut fields have Holotrichia populations greater than 1 larva in 1.35 m2, more widespread use of chlorpyrifos seed dressing of groundnut is likely to produce regional economic benefits.

Root-lesion nematodes (Pratylenchus thornei and P. neglectus): A review of recent progress in managing a significant pest of grain crops in northern Australia

Two species of root-lesion nematode (predominantly Pratylenchus thornei but also P. neglectus) are widespread pathogens of wheat and other crops in Australia's northern grain belt, a subtropical region with deep, fertile clay soils and a summer-dominant rainfall pattern. Losses in grain yield from P. thornei can be as high as 70% for intolerant wheat cultivars. This review focuses on research which has led to the development of effective integrated management programs for these nematodes. It highlights the importance of correct identification in managing Pratylenchus species, reviews the plant breeding work done in developing tolerant and resistant cultivars, outlines the methods used to screen for tolerance and resistance, and discusses how planned crop sequencing with tolerant and partially resistant wheat cultivars, together with crops such as sorghum, sunflower, millets and canaryseed, can be used to reduce nematode populations and limit crop damage. The declining levels of soil organic matter in cropped soils are also discussed with reference to their effect on soil health and biological suppression of root-lesion nematodes.

Development of hazard site surveillance programs for forest invasive species: A case study from Brisbane, Australia

Hazard site surveillance is a system for post-border detection of new pest incursions, targeting sites that are considered potentially at high risk of such introductions. Globalisation, increased volumes of containerised freight and competition for space at domestic ports means that goods are increasingly being first opened at premises some distance from the port of entry, thus dispersing risk away from the main inspection point. Hazard site surveillance acts as a backstop to border control to ensure that new incursions are detected sufficiently early to allow the full range of management options, including eradication and containment, to be considered. This is particularly important for some of the more cryptic forest pests whose presence in a forest often is not discovered until populations are already high and the pest is well established. General requirements for a hazard site surveillance program are discussed using a program developed in Brisbane, Australia, in 2006 as a case study. Some early results from the Brisbane program are presented. In total 67 species and 5757 individuals of wood-boring beetles have been trapped and identified during the program to date. Scolytines are the most abundant taxa, making up 83% of the catch. No new exotics have been trapped but 19 of the species and 60% of all specimens caught are exotics that are already established in Australia.

Thermal requirements, field mortality and population phenology modelling of Paropsis atomaria Olivier, an emergent pest in subtropical hardwood plantations

Paropsis atomaria is a recently emerged pest of eucalypt plantations in subtropical Australia. Its broad host range of at least 20 eucalypt species and wide geographical distribution provides it the potential to become a serious forestry pest both within Australia and, if accidentally introduced, overseas. Although populations of P. atomaria are genetically similar throughout its range, population dynamics differ between regions. Here, we determine temperature-dependent developmental requirements using beetles sourced from temperate and subtropical zones by calculating lower temperature thresholds, temperature-induced mortality, and day-degree requirements. We combine these data with field mortality estimates of immature life stages to produce a cohort-based model, ParopSys, using DYMEX™ that accurately predicts the timing, duration, and relative abundance of life stages in the field and number of generations in a spring–autumn (September–May) field season. Voltinism was identified as a seasonally plastic trait dependent upon environmental conditions, with two generations observed and predicted in the Australian Capital Territory, and up to four in Queensland. Lower temperature thresholds for development ranged between 4 and 9 °C, and overall development rates did not differ according to beetle origin. Total immature development time (egg–adult) was approximately 769.2 ± S.E. 127.8 DD above a lower temperature threshold of 6.4 ± S.E. 2.6 °C. ParopSys provides a basic tool enabling forest managers to use the number of generations and seasonal fluctuations in abundance of damaging life stages to estimate the pest risk of P. atomaria prior to plantation establishment, and predict the occurrence and duration of damaging life stages in the field. Additionally, by using local climatic data the pest potential of P. atomaria can be estimated to predict the risk of it establishing if accidentally introduced overseas. Improvements to ParopSys’ capability and complexity can be made as more biological data become available.

Resolving cryptic species complexes of major tephritid pests

An FAO/IAEA Co-ordinated Research Project (CRP) on “Resolution of Cryptic Species Complexes of Tephritid Pests to Overcome Constraints to SIT Application and International Trade” was conducted from 2010 to 2015. As captured in the CRP title, the objective was to undertake targeted research into the systematics and diagnostics of taxonomically challenging fruit fly groups of economic importance. The scientific output was the accurate alignment of biological species with taxonomic names; which led to the applied outcome of assisting FAO and IAEA Member States in overcoming technical constraints to the application of the Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) against pest fruit flies and the facilitation of international agricultural trade. Close to 50 researchers from over 20 countries participated in the CRP, using coordinated, multidisciplinary research to address, within an integrative taxonomic framework, cryptic species complexes of major tephritid pests. The following progress was made for the four complexes selected and studied: Anastrepha fraterculus complex – Eight morphotypes and their geographic and ecological distributions in Latin America were defined. The morphotypes can be considered as distinct biological species on the basis of differences in karyotype, sexual incompatibility, post-mating isolation, cuticular hydrocarbon, pheromone, and molecular analyses. Discriminative taxonomic tools using linear and geometric morphometrics of both adult and larval morphology were developed for this complex. Bactrocera dorsalis complex – Based on genetic, cytogenetic, pheromonal, morphometric, and behavioural data, which showed no or only minor variation between the Asian/African pest fruit flies Bactrocera dorsalis, B. papayae, B. philippinensis and B. invadens, the latter three species were synonymized with B. dorsalis. Of the five target pest taxa studied, only B. dorsalis and B. carambolae remain as scientifically valid names. Molecular and pheromone markers are now available to distinguish B. dorsalis from B. carambolae. Ceratitis FAR Complex (C. fasciventris, C. anonae, C. rosa) – Morphology, morphometry, genetic, genomic, pheromone, cuticular hydrocarbon, ecology, behaviour, and developmental physiology data provide evidence for the existence of five different entities within this fruit fly complex from the African region. These are currently recognised as Ceratitis anonae, C. fasciventris (F1 and F2), C. rosa and a new species related to C. rosa (R2). The biological limits within C. fasciventris (i.e. F1 and F2) are not fully resolved. Microsatellites markers and morphological identification tools for the adult males of the five different FAR entities were developed based on male leg structures. Zeugodacus cucurbitae (formerly Bactrocera (Zeugodacus) cucurbitae) – Genetic variability was studied among melon fly populations throughout its geographic range in Africa and the Asia/Pacific region and found to be limited. Cross-mating studies indicated no incompatibility or sexual isolation. Host preference and genetic studies showed no evidence for the existence of host races. It was concluded that the melon fly does not represent a cryptic species complex, neither with regard to geographic distribution nor to host range. Nevertheless, the higher taxonomic classification under which this species had been placed, by the time the CRP was started, was found to be paraphyletic; as a result the subgenus Zeugodacus was elevated to genus level.

Potential of imidacloprid to control four species of psocids (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae) infesting stored grain

The effectiveness of the neonicotinoid insecticide imidacloprid was evaluated against four psocid pests of stored grain. This research was undertaken because of the growing importance of psocids in stored grain and the need to identify methods for their control. The mortality and reproduction of adults of Liposcelis bostrychophila Badonnel, L. entomophila (Enderlein), L. decolor (Pearman) and L. paeta Pearman in wheat treated with imidacloprid were determined. There were five application rates (0.5, 1, 2, 5 and 10 mg AI kg -1 grain) and an untreated control. There were significant effects of application rate on both adult mortality and reproduction for all four species, but the effect of imidacloprid was sometimes more pronounced on reproduction. Imidacloprid was most effective against L. bostrychophila, with 100% adult mortality after 7 d at 5 mg AI kg-1, 14 d at 2 mg AI kg-1 and 28 d at 0.5 and 1 mg AI kg-1. No live progeny were produced at 2 mg AI kg-1. For L. decolor, there was 100% adult mortality after 28 d at 10 mg AI kg-1 and no live progeny were produced at 2 mg AI kg-1. For L. entomophila, there was 100% adult mortality after 14 d at 10 mg AI kg-1 and 28 d at 2 and 5 mg AI kg-1. No live progeny were produced at 10 mg AI kg-1. At 10 mg AI kg-1 there was 100% mortality of L. paeta adults after 28 d exposure and no live progeny developed. Because reproduction at some application rates occurred only in the first 14 d of exposure, it is concluded that the application rate leading to population extinction was 1 mg AI kg-1 for L. bostrychophila, 2 mg AI kg-1 for L. decolor and L. entomophila and 5 mg AI kg -1 for L. paeta. This study shows that imidacloprid has potential as a grain protectant to control all four Liposcelis species in stored grain.

Achievements in forest tree genetic improvement in Australia and New Zealand 2: Development of Corymbia species and hybrids for plantations in eastern Australia

This paper describes the establishment of provenance seedling seed orchards of three spotted gums and cadaga (all species of Corymbia ex Eucalyptus). It also discusses the limitations of growing the spotted gums as pure species including: lack of mass flowering, susceptibility to a fungal shoot blight and low amenability to vegetative propagation. These limitations, together with observation of putative natural hybrids of the spotted gums with cadaga, and the early promise of manipulated hybrids, led to an intensive breeding and testing program. Many hybrid families have significant advantages in growth and tolerance to disease, insects and frost, and can be vegetatively propagated. They also exhibit broad environmental plasticity, allowing the best varieties to be planted across a wider range of sites than the spotted gums, resulting in more land being suitable for plantation development.