Can panel data really improve the predictability of the monetary exchange rate model?

A common explanation for the inability of the monetary model to beat the random walk in forecasting future exchange rates is that conventional time series tests may have low power, and that panel data should generate more powerful tests. This paper provides an extensive evaluation of this power argument to the use of panel data in the forecasting context. In particular, by using simulations it is shown that although pooling of the individual prediction tests can lead to substantial power gains, pooling only the parameters of the forecasting equation, as has been suggested in the previous literature, does not seem to generate more powerful tests. The simulation results are illustrated through an empirical application. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Exchange rate dynamics in Brazil

The paper aims to investigate on empirical and theoretical grounds the Brazilian exchange rate dynamics under floating exchange rates. The empirical analysis examines the short and long term behavior of the exchange rate, interest rate (domestic and foreign) and country risk using econometric techniques such as variance decomposition, Granger causality, cointegration tests, error correction models, and a GARCH model to estimate the exchange rate volatility. The empirical findings suggest that one can argue in favor of a certain degree of endogeneity of the exchange rate and that flexible rates have not been able to insulate the Brazilian economy in the same patterns predicted by literature due to its own specificities (managed floating with the use of international reserves and domestic interest rates set according to inflation target) and to externally determined variables such as the country risk. Another important outcome is the lack of a closer association of domestic and foreign interest rates since the new exchange regime has been adopted. That is, from January 1999 to May 2004, the US monetary policy has no significant impact on the Brazilian exchange rate dynamics, which has been essentially endogenous primarily when we consider the fiscal dominance expressed by the probability of default.

Exchange rate policies, patterns of specialization and economic development: theory and evidence in developing countries

The objectives of this paper are twofold. First, it intends to provide theoretical elements to analyze the relation between real exchange rates and economic development. Our main hypothesis is very much in line with the Dutch disease literature, and states that competitive currencies contribute to the existence and maintenance of the anufacturing sector in the economy. This, in turn, brings about higher growth rates in the long run, given the existence of increasing returns in the industrial sector, and its importance in generating echnological change and increasing productivity in the overall economy. The second objective of this paper is empirical. It intends to analyze examples of successful exchange rate policies, such as Chile and Indonesia in the eighties, as a benchmark for comparison with countries where currency overvaluation has taken place, such as Brazil. In the latter case, the local currency is being inflated by large capital inflows, due to high domestic interest rates and to a boom in demand and prices of commodities in the international markets. It will be argued that the industrial sector bears most of the burden when the currency appreciates, and that Brazil risks at deindustrialization if there are no changes in the exchange rate regime

Sovereignty, exchange rate and the Euro crisis

This paper presents an interpretation of the European crisis based on the balance of payments imbalances within the Eurozone and highlighting the role of the “internal” real exchange rates as a primary cause of the crisis. It explores the structural contradictions that turn the Euro into a “foreign currency” for each individual Eurozone country. These contradictions imply the inability of national central banks to monetize the public and private debts, which makes the Euro crisis a sovereign crisis similar to those typical of emerging countries, but whose solution presents additional obstacles.

In search of exchange rate predictability : a study about accuracy, consistency, and granger causality of forecasts generated by a Taylor Rule Model

Este estudo investiga o poder preditivo fora da amostra, um mês à frente, de um modelo baseado na regra de Taylor para previsão de taxas de câmbio. Revisamos trabalhos relevantes que concluem que modelos macroeconômicos podem explicar a taxa de câmbio de curto prazo. Também apresentamos estudos que são céticos em relação à capacidade de variáveis macroeconômicas preverem as variações cambiais. Para contribuir com o tema, este trabalho apresenta sua própria evidência através da implementação do modelo que demonstrou o melhor resultado preditivo descrito por Molodtsova e Papell (2009), o “symmetric Taylor rule model with heterogeneous coefficients, smoothing, and a constant”. Para isso, utilizamos uma amostra de 14 moedas em relação ao dólar norte-americano que permitiu a geração de previsões mensais fora da amostra de janeiro de 2000 até março de 2014. Assim como o critério adotado por Galimberti e Moura (2012), focamos em países que adotaram o regime de câmbio flutuante e metas de inflação, porém escolhemos moedas de países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. Os resultados da nossa pesquisa corroboram o estudo de Rogoff e Stavrakeva (2008), ao constatar que a conclusão da previsibilidade da taxa de câmbio depende do teste estatístico adotado, sendo necessária a adoção de testes robustos e rigorosos para adequada avaliação do modelo. Após constatar não ser possível afirmar que o modelo implementado provém previsões mais precisas do que as de um passeio aleatório, avaliamos se, pelo menos, o modelo é capaz de gerar previsões “racionais”, ou “consistentes”. Para isso, usamos o arcabouço teórico e instrumental definido e implementado por Cheung e Chinn (1998) e concluímos que as previsões oriundas do modelo de regra de Taylor são “inconsistentes”. Finalmente, realizamos testes de causalidade de Granger com o intuito de verificar se os valores defasados dos retornos previstos pelo modelo estrutural explicam os valores contemporâneos observados. Apuramos que o modelo fundamental é incapaz de antecipar os retornos realizados.

Assessing interdependence among countries' fundamentals and its implications for exchange rate misalignment estimates: An empirical exercise based on GVAR

Exchange rates are important macroeconomic prices and changes in these rates a ect economic activity, prices, interest rates, and trade ows. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies to evaluate whether a real e ective exchange is overvalued or undervalued. There is a vast body of literature on the determinants of long-term real exchange rates and on empirical strategies to implement the equilibrium norms obtained from theoretical models. This study seeks to contribute to this literature by showing that the global vector autoregressions model (GVAR) proposed by Pesaran and co-authors can add relevant information to the literature on measuring exchange rate misalignment. Our empirical exercise suggests that the estimate exchange rate misalignment obtained from GVAR can be quite di erent to that using the traditional cointegrated time series techniques, which treat countries as detached entities. The di erences between the two approaches are more pronounced for small and developing countries. Our results also suggest a strong interdependence among eurozone countries, as expected

Does mixed frequency vector error correction model add relevant information to exchange misalignment calculus? Evidence for United States

Real exchange rate is an important macroeconomic price in the economy and a ects economic activity, interest rates, domestic prices, trade and investiments ows among other variables. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies to evaluate whether a real e ective exchange is overvalued or undervalued. There is a vast body of literature on the determinants of long-term real exchange rates and on empirical strategies to implement the equilibrium norms obtained from theoretical models. This study seeks to contribute to this literature by showing that it is possible to calculate the misalignment from a mixed ointegrated vector error correction framework. An empirical exercise using United States' real exchange rate data is performed. The results suggest that the model with mixed frequency data is preferred to the models with same frequency variables

EU-Mercosur trade relations: impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs

The issue of “trade and exchange rate misalignments” is being discussed at the G20, IMF and WTO, following an initiative by Brazil. The main purpose of this paper is to apply the methodology developed by the authors to exam the impacts of misalignment on tariffs in order to analyse the impacts of misalignments on the trade relations between two customs unions – the EU and Mercosur, as well as to explain how tariff barriers are affected. It is divided into several sections: the first summarises the debate on exchange rates at the WTO; the second explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments; the third and fourth summarises the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of ‘misalignment tariffication’; the fifth reviews the effects of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs and its consequences for the trade negotiations between the two areas; and the last concludes and suggests a way to move the debate forward in the context of regional arrangements

Trade rules and exchange rate misalignments : in search for a WTO solution e medidas compensatórias

The debate on the link between trade rules and rules on exchange rates is raising the attention of experts on international trade law and economics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs as applied by the WTO – World Trade Organization. It is divided into five sections: the first one explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents its results for Brazil, US and China; the second summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of “misalignment tariffication”; the third examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and their consequences for the multilateral trading system; the fourth one creates a methodology to estimate exchange rates against a currency of the World and a proposal to deal with persistent and significant misalignments related to trade rules. The conclusions are present in the last section

Leaf heliotropism in Styrax camporum Pohl from the Brazilian cerrado: distinct gas exchange and leaf structure, but similar leaf temperature and water relations

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The impact of exchange-rate and trade policy on export performance in the 1980s

Includes bibliography

Leaf gas exchange and yield of three upland rice cultivars

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Brazilian exchange rate complexity: Financial crisis effects

With the financial market globalization, foreign investments became vital for the economies, mainly in emerging countries. In the last decades, Brazilian exchange rates appeared as a good indicator to measure either investors' confidence or risk aversion. Here, some events of global or national financial crisis are analyzed, trying to understand how they influenced the "dollar-real" rate evolution. The theoretical tool to be used is the Lopez-Mancini-Calbet (LMC) complexity measure that, applied to real exchange rate data, has shown good fitness between critical events and measured patterns. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exchange of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2) between plants and the atmosphere under laboratory and field conditions

Nitrogen is an essential nutrient. It is for human, animal and plants a constituent element of proteins and nucleic acids. Although the majority of the Earth’s atmosphere consists of elemental nitrogen (N2, 78 %) only a few microorganisms can use it directly. To be useful for higher plants and animals elemental nitrogen must be converted to a reactive oxidized form. This conversion happens within the nitrogen cycle by free-living microorganisms, symbiotic living Rhizobium bacteria or by lightning. Humans are able to synthesize reactive nitrogen through the Haber-Bosch process since the beginning of the 20th century. As a result food security of the world population could be improved noticeably. On the other side the increased nitrogen input results in acidification and eutrophication of ecosystems and in loss of biodiversity. Negative health effects arose for humans such as fine particulate matter and summer smog. Furthermore, reactive nitrogen plays a decisive role at atmospheric chemistry and global cycles of pollutants and nutritive substances.rnNitrogen monoxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) belong to the reactive trace gases and are grouped under the generic term NOx. They are important components of atmospheric oxidative processes and influence the lifetime of various less reactive greenhouse gases. NO and NO2 are generated amongst others at combustion process by oxidation of atmospheric nitrogen as well as by biological processes within soil. In atmosphere NO is converted very quickly into NO2. NO2 is than oxidized to nitrate (NO3-) and to nitric acid (HNO3), which bounds to aerosol particles. The bounded nitrate is finally washed out from atmosphere by dry and wet deposition. Catalytic reactions of NOx are an important part of atmospheric chemistry forming or decomposing tropospheric ozone (O3). In atmosphere NO, NO2 and O3 are in photosta¬tionary equilibrium, therefore it is referred as NO-NO2-O3 triad. At regions with elevated NO concentrations reactions with air pollutions can form NO2, altering equilibrium of ozone formation.rnThe essential nutrient nitrogen is taken up by plants mainly by dissolved NO3- entering the roots. Atmospheric nitrogen is oxidized to NO3- within soil via bacteria by nitrogen fixation or ammonium formation and nitrification. Additionally atmospheric NO2 uptake occurs directly by stomata. Inside the apoplast NO2 is disproportionated to nitrate and nitrite (NO2-), which can enter the plant metabolic processes. The enzymes nitrate and nitrite reductase convert nitrate and nitrite to ammonium (NH4+). NO2 gas exchange is controlled by pressure gradients inside the leaves, the stomatal aperture and leaf resistances. Plant stomatal regulation is affected by climate factors like light intensity, temperature and water vapor pressure deficit. rnThis thesis wants to contribute to the comprehension of the effects of vegetation in the atmospheric NO2 cycle and to discuss the NO2 compensation point concentration (mcomp,NO2). Therefore, NO2 exchange between the atmosphere and spruce (Picea abies) on leaf level was detected by a dynamic plant chamber system under labo¬ratory and field conditions. Measurements took place during the EGER project (June-July 2008). Additionally NO2 data collected during the ECHO project (July 2003) on oak (Quercus robur) were analyzed. The used measuring system allowed simultaneously determina¬tion of NO, NO2, O3, CO2 and H2O exchange rates. Calculations of NO, NO2 and O3 fluxes based on generally small differences (∆mi) measured between inlet and outlet of the chamber. Consequently a high accuracy and specificity of the analyzer is necessary. To achieve these requirements a highly specific NO/NO2 analyzer was used and the whole measurement system was optimized to an enduring measurement precision.rnData analysis resulted in a significant mcomp,NO2 only if statistical significance of ∆mi was detected. Consequently, significance of ∆mi was used as a data quality criterion. Photo-chemical reactions of the NO-NO2-O3 triad in the dynamic plant chamber’s volume must be considered for the determination of NO, NO2, O3 exchange rates, other¬wise deposition velocity (vdep,NO2) and mcomp,NO2 will be overestimated. No significant mcomp,NO2 for spruce could be determined under laboratory conditions, but under field conditions mcomp,NO2 could be identified between 0.17 and 0.65 ppb and vdep,NO2 between 0.07 and 0.42 mm s-1. Analyzing field data of oak, no NO2 compensation point concentration could be determined, vdep,NO2 ranged between 0.6 and 2.71 mm s-1. There is increasing indication that forests are mainly a sink for NO2 and potential NO2 emissions are low. Only when assuming high NO soil emissions, more NO2 can be formed by reaction with O3 than plants are able to take up. Under these circumstance forests can be a source for NO2.

Magnetization exchange with water and T(1) relaxation of the downfield resonances in human brain spectra at 3.0 T

The use of water suppression for in vivo proton MR spectroscopy diminishes the signal intensities from resonances that undergo magnetization exchange with water, particularly those downfield of water. To investigate these exchangeable resonances, an inversion transfer experiment was performed using the metabolite cycling technique for non-water-suppressed MR spectroscopy from a large brain voxel in 11 healthy volunteers at 3.0 T. The exchange rates of the most prominent peaks downfield of water were found to range from 0.5 to 8.9 s(-1), while the T(1) relaxation times in absence of exchange were found to range from 175 to 525 ms. These findings may help toward the assignments of the downfield resonances and a better understanding of the sources of contrast in chemical exchange saturation transfer imaging.