833 resultados para out-of-sample forecast


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Introduction With the ever-increasing global burden of retinal disease, there is an urgent need to vastly improve formulation strategies that enhance posterior eye delivery of therapeutics. Despite intravitreal administration having demonstrated notable superiority over other routes in enhancing retinal drug availability, there still exist various significant physical/biochemical barriers preventing optimal drug delivery into the retina. A further complication lies with an inability to reliably translate laboratory-based retinal models into a clinical setting. Several formulation approaches have recently been evaluated to improve intravitreal therapeutic outcomes, and our aim in this review is to highlight strategies that hold the most promise. Areas covered We discuss the complex barriers faced by the intravitreal route and examine how formulation strategies including implants, nanoparticulate carriers, viral vectors and sonotherapy have been utilized to attain both sustained delivery and enhanced penetration through to the retina. We conclude by highlighting the advances and limitations of current in vitro, ex vivo and in vivo retinal models in use by researchers globally. Expert opinion Various nanoparticle compositions have demonstrated the ability to overcome the retinal barriers successfully; however, their utility is limited to the laboratory setting. Optimization of these formulations and the development of more robust experimental retinal models are necessary to translate success in the laboratory into clinically efficacious outcomes.

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Recent literature acknowledges the need for new career development models to support the way that careers evolve in the 21st century workplace (Bloch 2005). This is particularly so within temporary organisation forms, and for those pursuing a career in project management (Hölzle 2010). Our research, explores how project managers working on projects and within temporary organisation forms and those working on project-linked contracts access the development opportunities they require to remain employable in an era of project-by-project employment. Set in Australia where a project-based economy (Crawford, French and Lloyd-Walker 2013) and contract work have led to casualisation of the workforce (Connell & Burgess, 2006; McKeown & Hanley (2009) the results suggest new approaches to career development may be required.

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The Out of the Box Festival was founded in 1994 by the Queensland Performing Arts Centre and has been held biannually ever since both within and around the centre in what is now known as the Cultural Precinct at Southbank. It is unique in Australia in that it caters entirely to children aged 8 years and under, with a highly curated program of ticketed performance events, workshops and free arts-based events. It is attended by school and kindergarten groups and by families, and besides engaging children in high quality arts experiences, the festival is also a platform for advocating the developmental and educational benefits of the arts for children. Dr Mark Radvan was the artistic director of the 2008 festival, with responsibility for developing the curatorial direction of each festival, for creating and programming its events, and for working with festival partners The Queensland Art Gallery, The Queensland Museum, The State Library of Queensland and The Queensland Theatre Company. Radvan designed selected and commissioned works to demonstrate how the arts create memorable, celebratory and immersive experiences that stimulate children’s imagination, their curiosity and confidence about the material world and the cultures of its people. A core event was an outdoor music and dance performance space featuring entirely Indigenous performers that was not only the beating heart of the festival, but served to underlie the importance of mainstreaming awareness of our first peoples in the increasingly culturally diverse communities of children attending.

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Mandatory reporting is a key aspect of Australia’s approach to protecting children and is incorporated into all jurisdictions’ legislation, albeit in a variety of forms. In this article we examine all major newspaper’s coverage of mandatory reporting during an 18-month period in 2008-2009, when high-profile tragedies and inquiries occurred and significant policy and reform agendas were being debated. Mass media utilise a variety of lenses to inform and shape public responses and attitudes to reported events. We use frame analysis to identify the ways in which stories were composed and presented, and how language portrayed this contested area of policy. The results indicate that within an overall portrayal of system failure and the need for reform, the coverage placed major responsibility on child protection agencies for the over-reporting, under-reporting, and overburdened system identified, along with the failure of mandatory reporting to reduce risk. The implications for ongoing reform are explored along with the need for robust research to inform debate about the merits of mandatory reporting.

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This chapter presents data produced by a research project that looked at pedagogy for print and digital literacies in a high poverty, high diversity primary school. The student population included refugee, immigrant and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander young people. In an environment in which schools, such as the study site, are under pressure to narrow the curriculum to ‘the basics’, the project sought to support teachers as they worked to create a rich curriculum for all students. The chapter will focus on pedagogy in an after-school media club. The aim of the club, which ran weekly for several years, was to build students’ media literacy skills. The data suggest that established ways of scaffolding linguistic texts cannot be simply transferred to multimodal text production. The chapter will also address implications from the research outcomes for other teachers working with At Risk EAL students.

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In this chapter we describe and explain the ways we negotiated these same epistemological tensions and structural realities as we implemented the iPad loan component of the project reported in this book (hereafter: “iPad loan program”).Children who participated in the iPad loan program were able to take home one of the project iPads used in their preschool centre, much as they were able to take home books and puzzles. This component was one reflection of the ethos of “digital inclusion” that infused the project. As we noted in the introduction to this book, there is international recognition of the role that schools can play in ensuring all communities can participate in digital culture and the digital economy (e.g., European Commission, 2014; United States Government, 2013). Accordingly, we conducted the project in preschool centres where at least some groups of children were thought to enjoy less access to learning on digital platforms than others. Our goal was to put the iPad into the hands of children who might not otherwise have had access to it, while supporting teachers and parents in capitalising on the learning potential of the device for all the children. Centres nominated for the project by administrators in the preschool system all served communities that were either affected by poverty and/or diverse in language and culture.

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This poster presents the results of a critical review of the literature on the intersection between paramedic practice with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) and previews the clinical and communication challenges likely to be experienced with these patients. Paramedics in Australia provide 24/7 out-of-hospital care to the community. Although their core business is to provide emergency care, paramedics also provide care for vulnerable people as a consequence of the social, economic or domestic milieu. Little is known about the frequency of use of emergency out-of-hospital services by children with ASD and their families. Similarly, little is known about the attitudes and perceptions of paramedics to children with ASD and their emergency health care. However, individuals with ASD are likely to require paramedic services at some point across the life span and may be more frequent users of health services as a consequence of the challenges they face. The high rate of co-morbidities of people diagnosed with ASD is reported and includes seizure disorders, gastro-intestinal disorders, metabolic disorders, hormonal dysfunction, ear, nose and throat infections, hearing impairment, hypertension, allergies/anaphylaxis, immune disorders, migraine and diabetes, gross/fine motor skill dysfunction, premature birth, birth defects, obesity and mental illness. Individuals with ASD may frequently experience concurrent communication, behaviour and sensory challenges. Consequently, Paramedics can encounter difficulties gathering important patient information which may compromise sensitive care. These interactions occur often in high pressure and emotionally challenging environments, which add to the difficulties in communicating the treatment and transport needs of this population.

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Since the beginning of 1980s, the Iranian health care system has undergone several reforms designed to increase accessibility of health services. Notwithstanding these reforms, out-of-pocket payments which create a barrier to access health services contribute almost half of total health are financing in Iran. This study aimed to provide a greater understanding about the inequality and determinants of the out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) and the related catastrophic expenditure (CE) for hospital services in Iran using a nationwide survey data, the 2003 Utilisation of Health Services Survey (UHSS). The concentration index and the Heckman selection model were used to assess inequality and factors associated with these expenditures. Inequality analysis suggests that the CE is concentrated among households in lower socioeconomic levels. The results of the Heckman selection model indicate that factors such as length of stay, admission to a hospital owned by private sector or Ministry of Health and Medical Education, and living in remote areas are positively associated with higher OOPE. Results of the ordered-probit selection model demonstrate that length of stay, lower household wealth index, and admission to a private hospital are major factors contributing to the increase in the probability of CE. Also, we find that households living in East Azarbaijan, Kordestan and Sistan and Balochestan face a higher level of CE. Based on our findings, the current employer-sponsored health insurance system does not offer equal protection against hospital expenditure in Iran. It seems that a single universal health insurance scheme that covers health services for all Iranian—regardless of their employment status—can better protect households from catastrophic health spending.

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Aims: We assessed the diagnostic performance of z-scores to define a significant delta cardiac troponin (cTn) in a cohort of patients with well-defined clinical outcomes. Methods: We calculated z-scores, which are dependent on the analytical precision and biological variation, to report changes in cTn. We compared the diagnostic performances of a relative delta (%Δ), actual delta (Δ), and z-scores in 762 emergency department patients with symptoms of suspected acute coronary syndrome. cTn was measured with sensitive cTnI (Beckman Coulter), highly sensitive cTnI (Abbott), and highly sensitive cTnT (Roche) assays. Results: Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed no statistically significant differences in the areas under the curve (AUC) of z-scores and Δ with both superior compared to %Δ for all three assays (p<0.001). The AUCs of z-scores measured with the Abbott hs-cTnI (0.955) and Roche hs-cTnT (0.922) assays were comparable to Beckman Coulter cTnI (0.933) (p=0.272 and 0.640, respectively). The individualized Δ cut-off values that were required to emulate a z-score of 1.96 were: Beckman Coulter cTnI 30 ng/l, Abbott hs-cTnI 20 ng/l, and Roche hs-cTnT 7 ng/l. Conclusions: z-scores allow the use of a single cut-off value at all cTn levels, for both cTnI and cTnT and for sensitive and highly sensitive assays, with comparable diagnostic performances. This strategy of reporting significant changes as z-scores may obviate the need for the empirical development of assay-specific cut-off rules to define significant troponin changes.

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The performance space in which Wesley Enoch’s play Black Diggers is being performed at the Brisbane Festival is a large black box. It features a raised stage in the middle which proves versatile for battlegrounds at home and abroad – and later as ground for discriminatory encounters experienced by Aboriginal returned ex-servicemen. The fire-filled 44-gallon drum off to the side creates another space of encounter; there are few other props. Now and then, dates and other details are whitewashed on the black walls...

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We examined whether self-ratings of “being active” among older people living in four different settings (major city high and lower density suburbs, a regional city, and a rural area) were associated with out-of-home participation and outdoor physical activity. A mixed-methods approach (survey, travel diary, and GPS tracking over a one-week period) was used to gather data from 48 individuals aged over 55 years. Self-ratings of “being active” were found to be positively correlated with the number of days older people spent time away from home but unrelated to time traveled by active means (walking and biking). No significant differences in active travel were found between the four study locations, despite differences in their respective built environments.The findings suggest that additional strategies to the creation of “age-friendly” environments are needed if older people are to increase their levels of outdoor physical activity. “Active aging” promotion campaigns may need to explicitly identify the benefits of walking outdoors to ambulatory older people as a means of maintaining their overall health, functional ability, and participation within society in the long-term and also encourage the development of community-based programs in order to facilitate regular walking for this group.

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Cognitive scientists were not quick to embrace the functional neuroimaging technologies that emerged during the late 20th century. In this new century, cognitive scientists continue to question, not unreasonably, the relevance of functional neuroimaging investigations that fail to address questions of interest to cognitive science. However, some ultra-cognitive scientists assert that these experiments can never be of relevance to the study of cognition. Their reasoning reflects an adherence to a functionalist philosophy that arbitrarily and purposefully distinguishes mental information-processing systems from brain or brain-like operations. This article addresses whether data from properly conducted functional neuroimaging studies can inform and subsequently constrain the assumptions of theoretical cognitive models. The article commences with a focus upon the functionalist philosophy espoused by the ultra-cognitive scientists, contrasting it with the materialist philosophy that motivates both cognitive neuroimaging investigations and connectionist modelling of cognitive systems. Connectionism and cognitive neuroimaging share many features, including an emphasis on unified cognitive and neural models of systems that combine localist and distributed representations. The utility of designing cognitive neuroimaging studies to test (primarily) connectionist models of cognitive phenomena is illustrated using data from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) investigations of language production and episodic memory.

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The extended title for this splendid visual feast is a catalogue to accompany the exhibition Postcards from the Edge of the City at the Santos Museum ofE conomic Botany, 9 December 2014 to 26 April 2015. As a catalogue this book contains the from and back sides of 300 postcards published between 1900 and 1917...

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Non-parametric difference tests such as triangle and duo-trio tests traditionally are used to establish differences or similarities between products. However they only supply the researcher with partial answers and often further testing is required to establish the nature, size and direction of differences. This paper looks at the advantages of the difference from control (DFC) test (also known as degree of difference test) and discusses appropriate applications of the test. The scope and principle of the test, panel composition and analysis of results are presented with the aid of suitable examples. Two of the major uses of the DFC test are in quality control and shelf-life testing. The role DFC takes in these areas and the use of other tests to complement the testing is discussed. Controls or standards are important in both these areas and the use of standard products, mental and written standards and blind controls are highlighted. The DFC test has applications in products where the duo-trio and triangle tests cannot be used because of the normal heterogeneity of the product. While the DFC test is a simple difference test it can be structured to give the researcher more valuable data and scope to make informed decisions about their product.

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Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.