Measuring the Economic Significance of Structural Exchange Rate Models

This paper examines both the in-sample and out-of-sample performance of three monetary fundamental models of exchange rates and compares their out-of-sample performance to that of a simple Random Walk model. Using a data-set consisting of five currencies at monthly frequency over the period January 1980 to December 2009 and a battery of newly developed performance measures, the paper shows that monetary models do better (in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting) than a simple Random Walk model.

Forecasting US bond default ratings allowing for previous and initial state dependence in an ordered probit model

In this paper we investigate the ability of a number of different ordered probit models to predict ratings based on firm-specific data on business and financial risks. We investigate models based on momentum, drift and ageing and compare them against alternatives that take into account the initial rating of the firm and its previous actual rating. Using data on US bond issuing firms rated by Fitch over the years 2000 to 2007 we compare the performance of these models in predicting the rating in-sample and out-of-sample using root mean squared errors, Diebold-Mariano tests of forecast performance and contingency tables. We conclude that initial and previous states have a substantial influence on rating prediction.

Evolution of insulin sensitivity and its variability in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients treated with hypothermia.

INTRODUCTION: Therapeutic hypothermia (TH) is often used to treat out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients who also often simultaneously receive insulin for stress-induced hyperglycaemia. However, the impact of TH on systemic metabolism and insulin resistance in critical illness is unknown. This study analyses the impact of TH on metabolism, including the evolution of insulin sensitivity (SI) and its variability, in patients with coma after OHCA. METHODS: This study uses a clinically validated, model-based measure of SI. Insulin sensitivity was identified hourly using retrospective data from 200 post-cardiac arrest patients (8,522 hours) treated with TH, shortly after admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). Blood glucose and body temperature readings were taken every one to two hours. Data were divided into three periods: 1) cool (T <35°C); 2) an idle period of two hours as normothermia was re-established; and 3) warm (T >37°C). A maximum of 24 hours each for the cool and warm periods was considered. The impact of each condition on SI is analysed per cohort and per patient for both level and hour-to-hour variability, between periods and in six-hour blocks. RESULTS: Cohort and per-patient median SI levels increase consistently by 35% to 70% and 26% to 59% (P <0.001) respectively from cool to warm. Conversely, cohort and per-patient SI variability decreased by 11.1% to 33.6% (P <0.001) for the first 12 hours of treatment. However, SI variability increases between the 18th and 30th hours over the cool to warm transition, before continuing to decrease afterward. CONCLUSIONS: OCHA patients treated with TH have significantly lower and more variable SI during the cool period, compared to the later warm period. As treatment continues, SI level rises, and variability decreases consistently except for a large, significant increase during the cool to warm transition. These results demonstrate increased resistance to insulin during mild induced hypothermia. Our study might have important implications for glycaemic control during targeted temperature management.

Out of sight, out of mind? Educational outcomes of children with parents working abroad.

Impact of parental emigration on educational outcomes of children is theoretically ambiguous. Using novel data I collected on migration experience and its timing, family background and school performance of lower secondary pupils in Poland, I analyse the question empirically. Migration is mostly temporary in nature, with one parent engaging in employment abroad. As many as 63% of migrant parents have vocational qualifications, 29% graduated from high school, 4% have no qualifications and the remaining 4% graduated from university. Almost 18% of children are affected by parental migration. Perhaps surprisingly, estimates suggest that parental employment abroad has a positive immediate impact on a pupil’s grade. Parental education appears pivotal; children of high school graduates benefit most. Longer term effects appear more negative, however, suggesting that a prolonged migration significantly lowers a child’s grade. Interestingly, siblings’ foreign experiences exert a large, positive impact on pupils’ grades.

Proportion of out of hospital adult non traumatic cardiac arrest presenting as a convulsion

Introduction: The majority of convulsions are due to an epilepticseizure or a convulsive syncope. In some cases, this is the firstsymptom of an out of hospital cardiac arrest (OH-CA).Objective: This study was aimed to measure the proportion of adultnon traumatic OH-CA presenting as a convulsion.Methodology: We prospectively collected all incoming calls with anout-of-hospital non traumatic seizure as the chief complaint in patients>18 years during a 24-months period. Among these calls, we collectedcases identified as OH-CA by paramedics.Results: During the 24-months period, the EMS dispatch centerreceived 561 calls for an out-of-hospital non traumatic convulsion in anadult. Twelve cases were ultimately classified as CA. In this group, onebystander spontaneously reported that the patient was known forepilepsy. The incidence of OH-CA presenting as convulsions wastherefore 2.1% of all calls for convulsion. Over the same period, theEMS dispatch center received 1035 calls related to an adult nontraumatic OH-CA. Therefore the rate of OH-CA presenting as aconvulsion represented 1.2% of all adult non traumatic OH-CA.Conclusion: Only 12 cases out of the 531 calls for non traumatic adultconvulsions were confirmed OH-CA (2.1%). Nevertheless, this unusualpresentation of OH-CA must be recognized by dispatchers, even whena patient is reported by bystander as a known epileptic. Dispatchersshould keep bystanders on line or call them back before paramedics'arrival, and have them confirm the progressive return of a normalpattern of breathing and state of consciousness; if not, they shouldencourage when necessary bystander to initiate CPR. For dispatchers,a past medical history of epilepsy should not be regarded as sufficientinformation to rule-out OH-CA. It is mandatory that known epilepticpatients should be monitored in the same way as non-epileptic patients.

Advances in the hospital management of patients following an out of hospital cardiac arrest.

The outcome for patients after an out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) has been poor over many decades and single interventions have mostly resulted in disappointing results. More recently, some regions have observed better outcomes after redesigning their cardiac arrest pathways. Optimised resuscitation and prehospital care is absolutely key, but in-hospital care appears to be at least as important. OHCA treatment requires a multidisciplinary approach, comparable to trauma care; the development of cardiac arrest pathways and cardiac arrest centres may dramatically improve patient care and outcomes. Besides emergency medicine physicians, intensivists and neurologists, cardiologists are playing an increasingly crucial role in the post-resuscitation management, especially by optimising cardiac output and undertaking urgent coronary angiography/intervention.

Imaging of Anorectal Malformations: Finding the Way out of the Labyrinth

Purpose/Aim: To review the embryological basis of a wide spectrum of anorectal malformations (ARM), to provide anatomical schemas showing the possiblelocations of fistulas in boys and girls and to present the typical imaging findings of these complex anomalies using various imaging methods with emphasis on3T-MRI.Content Organization: 1. Embryology. 2. Imaging techniques. 3. Normal 3T-MRI pelvic anatomy. 4. Ano-rectal malformations in boys: - Classification -Anatomic schemas of location of fistulas. - Imaging studies. 5. Ano-rectal malformations in girls: - Classification - Anatomic schemas of location of fistulas. -Imaging studies. 6. Imaging of Currarino syndrome. 7. Imaging of Vacterl syndrome.Summary: ARM are a group of complex anatomical alterations characterized by an abnormal separation of genitourinary system from hindgut. The major teachingpoints of this pictorial essay are to show: - The normal anatomy of the pelvis floor and the sphincter muscle complex in 3T-MRI. - Anatomic schemas of thedifferent types of ARM in boys and girls. - Imaging findings of a wide spectrum of ARM using a multimodality approach. including colostogramm, voidingcystourethrogramm and MRI of the pelvis.

Essays in higher moment asset pricing and liquidity risk

This thesis focuses on theoretical asset pricing models and their empirical applications. I aim to investigate the following noteworthy problems: i) if the relationship between asset prices and investors' propensities to gamble and to fear disaster is time varying, ii) if the conflicting evidence for the firm and market level skewness can be explained by downside risk, Hi) if costly learning drives liquidity risk. Moreover, empirical tests support the above assumptions and provide novel findings in asset pricing, investment decisions, and firms' funding liquidity. The first chapter considers a partial equilibrium model where investors have heterogeneous propensities to gamble and fear disaster. Skewness preference represents the desire to gamble, while kurtosis aversion represents fear of extreme returns. Using US data from 1988 to 2012, my model demonstrates that in bad times, risk aversion is higher, more people fear disaster, and fewer people gamble, in contrast to good times. This leads to a new empirical finding: gambling preference has a greater impact on asset prices during market downturns than during booms. The second chapter consists of two essays. The first essay introduces a foramula based on conditional CAPM for decomposing the market skewness. We find that the major market upward and downward movements can be well preadicted by the asymmetric comovement of betas, which is characterized by an indicator called "Systematic Downside Risk" (SDR). We find that SDR can efafectively forecast future stock market movements and we obtain out-of-sample R-squares (compared with a strategy using historical mean) of more than 2.27% with monthly data. The second essay reconciles a well-known empirical fact: aggregating positively skewed firm returns leads to negatively skewed market return. We reconcile this fact through firms' greater response to negative maraket news than positive market news. We also propose several market return predictors, such as downside idiosyncratic skewness. The third chapter studies the funding liquidity risk based on a general equialibrium model which features two agents: one entrepreneur and one external investor. Only the investor needs to acquire information to estimate the unobservable fundamentals driving the economic outputs. The novelty is that information acquisition is more costly in bad times than in good times, i.e. counter-cyclical information cost, as supported by previous empirical evidence. Later we show that liquidity risks are principally driven by costly learning. Résumé Cette thèse présente des modèles théoriques dévaluation des actifs et leurs applications empiriques. Mon objectif est d'étudier les problèmes suivants: la relation entre l'évaluation des actifs et les tendances des investisseurs à parier et à crainadre le désastre varie selon le temps ; les indications contraires pour l'entreprise et l'asymétrie des niveaux de marché peuvent être expliquées par les risques de perte en cas de baisse; l'apprentissage coûteux augmente le risque de liquidité. En outre, des tests empiriques confirment les suppositions ci-dessus et fournissent de nouvelles découvertes en ce qui concerne l'évaluation des actifs, les décisions relatives aux investissements et la liquidité de financement des entreprises. Le premier chapitre examine un modèle d'équilibre où les investisseurs ont des tendances hétérogènes à parier et à craindre le désastre. La préférence asymétrique représente le désir de parier, alors que le kurtosis d'aversion représente la crainte du désastre. En utilisant les données des Etats-Unis de 1988 à 2012, mon modèle démontre que dans les mauvaises périodes, l'aversion du risque est plus grande, plus de gens craignent le désastre et moins de gens parient, conatrairement aux bonnes périodes. Ceci mène à une nouvelle découverte empirique: la préférence relative au pari a un plus grand impact sur les évaluations des actifs durant les ralentissements de marché que durant les booms économiques. Exploitant uniquement cette relation générera un revenu excédentaire annuel de 7,74% qui n'est pas expliqué par les modèles factoriels populaires. Le second chapitre comprend deux essais. Le premier essai introduit une foramule base sur le CAPM conditionnel pour décomposer l'asymétrie du marché. Nous avons découvert que les mouvements de hausses et de baisses majeures du marché peuvent être prédits par les mouvements communs des bêtas. Un inadicateur appelé Systematic Downside Risk, SDR (risque de ralentissement systématique) est créé pour caractériser cette asymétrie dans les mouvements communs des bêtas. Nous avons découvert que le risque de ralentissement systématique peut prévoir les prochains mouvements des marchés boursiers de manière efficace, et nous obtenons des carrés R hors échantillon (comparés avec une stratégie utilisant des moyens historiques) de plus de 2,272% avec des données mensuelles. Un investisseur qui évalue le marché en utilisant le risque de ralentissement systématique aurait obtenu une forte hausse du ratio de 0,206. Le second essai fait cadrer un fait empirique bien connu dans l'asymétrie des niveaux de march et d'entreprise, le total des revenus des entreprises positiveament asymétriques conduit à un revenu de marché négativement asymétrique. Nous décomposons l'asymétrie des revenus du marché au niveau de l'entreprise et faisons cadrer ce fait par une plus grande réaction des entreprises aux nouvelles négatives du marché qu'aux nouvelles positives du marché. Cette décomposition révélé plusieurs variables de revenus de marché efficaces tels que l'asymétrie caractéristique pondérée par la volatilité ainsi que l'asymétrie caractéristique de ralentissement. Le troisième chapitre fournit une nouvelle base théorique pour les problèmes de liquidité qui varient selon le temps au sein d'un environnement de marché incomplet. Nous proposons un modèle d'équilibre général avec deux agents: un entrepreneur et un investisseur externe. Seul l'investisseur a besoin de connaitre le véritable état de l'entreprise, par conséquent, les informations de paiement coutent de l'argent. La nouveauté est que l'acquisition de l'information coute plus cher durant les mauvaises périodes que durant les bonnes périodes, comme cela a été confirmé par de précédentes expériences. Lorsque la récession comamence, l'apprentissage coûteux fait augmenter les primes de liquidité causant un problème d'évaporation de liquidité, comme cela a été aussi confirmé par de précédentes expériences.

Incidenceof out-of-hospital adult nontraumatic cardiac arrest presenting as a convulsion

Introduction: The majority of convulsions are due to an epileptic seizure or a convulsive syncope. The incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OH-CA) presenting as a convulsion is unknown. Objective: This study aimed to measure the incidence of adult nontraumatic OH-CA presenting as a convulsion, a rate that has not been published so far, to the best of our knowledge. Methods: We prospectively collected all incoming calls with an out-of-hospital nontraumatic seizure as the chief complaint in patients >18 years old during a 24-month period. Among these calls, we collected cases identified as OH-CA by paramedics. Results: During the 24-month period, the emergency medical services (EMS) dispatch center received 561 calls for an out-of-hospital nontraumatic convulsion in an adult. Twelve cases were ultimately classified as CA. In this group, one bystander spontaneously reported that the patient was known for epilepsy. The incidence of OH-CA presenting as convulsions was therefore 2.1% of all calls for convulsion. Over the same period, the EMS dispatch center received 1,035 calls related to an adult nontraumatic OH-CA. Therefore, the rate of OH-CA presenting as a convulsion represented 1.2% of all adult nontraumatic OH-CA. Conclusion:L Only 12 cases out of the 531 calls for nontraumatic adult convulsions were confirmed OHCA (2.1%). Nevertheless, this unusual presentation of OH-CA must be recognized by dispatchers, even when a patient is reported by bystander as a known epileptic. Dispatchers should keep bystanders on the line or call them back before paramedics' arrival, and have them confirm the progressive return of a normal pat- tern of breathing and state of consciousness; if not, they should encourage the bystander to initiate CPR when necessary. An intervention should be implemented to improve the detection by dispatchers of OH-CA presenting as convulsion by the development of a specific interview and directed observation. For dispatchers, a past medical history of epilepsy should not be regarded as sufficient information to rule out OH-CA. It is mandatory that known epileptic patients should be monitored in the same way as nonepileptic patients.

Evaluation of pilot initiatives undertaken in the North Eastern and South Eastern Health Boards on the provision of General Practitioner out-of-hours services in those areas

To assess the efficiency and effectiveness of the management, administrative and support structures for the General Practitioner out-of-hours pilot projects in the North Eastern and South Eastern Health Boards having regard to value for money and service enhancement considerations Download the Report here

Artificial muscle to wash blood out of fibrillating atrium: an alternative to lifelong anticoagulation.

The Atripump is a motorless, volume displacement pump based on artificial muscle technology that could reproduce the pump function of normal atrium. It could help prevent blood clots due to blood stagnation and eventually avoid anticoagulation therapy in atrial fibrillation (AF). An animal study has been designed to assess mechanical effects of this pump on fibrillating atrium. The Atripump is a dome shaped silicone coated nitinol actuator. A pacemaker like control unit drives the actuator. In five adult sheep, the right atrium (RA) was exposed and dome sutured onto the epicardium. Atrial fibrillation was induced using rapid epicardial pacing (600 beats/min). Ejection fraction of the RA was obtained with intracardiac ultrasound in baseline, AF and Atripump assisted AF conditions. The dome's contraction rate was 60/min with power supply of 12V, 400 mA for 200 ms and ran for 2 hours in total. Mean temperature on the RA was 39+/-1.5 degrees C. Right atrium ejection fraction was 31% in baseline conditions, 5% and 20% in AF and assisted AF, respectively. In two animals a thrombus appeared in the right appendix and washed out once the pump was turned on. The Atripump washes blood out the RA acting as an anticoagulant device. Possible clinical implications in patients with chronic AF are prevention of embolism of cardiac origin and avoidance of hemorrhagic complication due to chronic anticoagulation.

Reimbursement for out of Pocket Expenses for Service Users and Carers

The PHA, through the Regional HSC Personal and Public Involvement Forum, have led on the development of an agreed regional policy to ensure that services users and carers are not out of pocket when involved in helping us to plan, deliver, review and evaluate HSC services. Staff are asked to familiarise themselves with the policy and apply it when involving services users and carers in their work.���