Report of the Study Group on “ Fisheries and Ecosystem Response to Recent Regime Shifts”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. DECADAL-SCALE CLIMATE EVENTS 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Basin-scale Patterns 1.3 Long Time Series in the North Pacific 1.4 Decadal Climate Variability in Ecological Regions of the North Pacific 1.5 Mechanisms 1.6 References 2. COHERENT REGIONAL RESPONSES 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Central North Pacific (CNP) 2.3 California Current System (CCS) 2.4 Gulf of Alaska (GOA) 2.5 Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands 2.6 Western North Pacific (WNP) 2.7 Coherence in Regional Responses to the 1998 Regime Shift 2.8 Climate Indicators for Detecting Regime Shifts 2.9 References 3. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF MARINE RESOURCES 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Response Time of Biota to Regime Shifts 3.3 Response Time of Management to Regime Shifts 3.4 Provision of Stock Assessment Advice 3.5 Decision Rules 3.6 References 4. SUGGESTED LITERATURE 4.1 Climate Regimes 4.2 Impacts on Lower Trophic Levels 4.3 Impacts on Fish and Higher Trophic Levels 4.4 Impacts on Ecosystems and Possible Mechanisms 4.5 Regimes and Fisheries Management APPENDIX 1: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC A1.1 Introduction A1.2 Physical Oceanography A1.3 Lower Trophic Levels A1.4 Invertebrates A1.5 Fishes A1.6 References APPENDIX 2: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT SYSTEM A2.1 Introduction A2.2 Physical Oceanography A2.3 Lower Trophic Levels A2.4 Invertebrates A2.5 Fishes A2.6 References APPENDIX 3: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA A3.1 Introduction A3.2 Physical Oceanography A3.3 Lower Trophic Levels A3.4 Invertebrates A3.5 Fishes A3.6 Higher Trophic Levels A3.7 Coherence in Gulf of Alaska Fish A3.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Recruitment and Survival Rate A3.9 References APPENDIX 4: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS A4.1 Introduction A4.2 Bering Sea Environmental Variables and Physical Oceanography A4.3 Bering Sea Lower Trophic Levels A4.4 Bering Sea Invertebrates A4.5 Bering Sea Fishes A4.6 Bering Sea Higher Trophic Levels A4.7 Coherence in Bering Sea Fish Responses A4.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Bering Fish Recruitment and Survival Rate A4.9 Aleutian Islands A4.10 References APPENDIX 5: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC A5.1 Introduction A5.2 Sea of Okhotsk A5.3 Tsushima Current Region and Kuroshio/Oyashio Current Region A5.4 Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea A5.5 References (168 page document)

Exchange energy shifts under dense plasma conditions

The variation of the energy interval between the intercombination line ( 1s2p(P-3(1))-> 1s(2)) and the resonance line ( 1s2p(P-1(1))-> 1s(2)) of He-like aluminium with plasma density and temperature is investigated. Since such energy interval is equivalent to the exchange energy of the state 1s2p(P-3(1)), we consider the dependence of this energy shift on the plasma environment. It was found that the shifts of exchange energy increase ( decrease) with the increase of electron density ( electron temperature), and the shifts of exchange energy become more sensitive to the electron density as the electron temperature decreases, i. e. in the strongly coupled plasma regime. An approximately linear relation is found between the shifts of exchange energy and the electron density. The results show that dense plasma effects are very important for the simulation of the spectral fine structure. The relative shifts between the intercombination ( 1s2p(P-3(1))-> 1s(2)) and the resonance line ( 1s2p(P-1(1))-> 1s(2)) are discussed for diagnostic applications.

Effects of international trade of food and feed and human diet shifts on food security and environmental safety: integrating scales

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Ground-state energy shifts of H-like Ti under dense and hot plasma conditions

In this study, by adopting the ion sphere model, the self-consistent. field method is used with the Poisson-Boltzmann equation and the Dirac equation to calculate the ground-state energies of H-like Ti at a plasma electron density from 10(22) cm(-3) to 10(24) cm(-3) and the electron temperature from 100 eV to 3600 eV. The ground-state energy shifts of H-like Ti show different trends with the electron density and the electron temperature. It is shown that the energy shifts increase with the increase in the electron density and decrease with the increase in the electron temperature. The energy shifts are sensitive to the electron density, but only sensitive to the low electron temperature. In addition, an accurately fitting formula is obtained to fast estimate the ground-state energies of H-like Ti. Such fitted formula can also be used to estimate the critical electron density of pressure ionization for the ground state of H-like Ti.

Focal shifts in focused Hermite-cosh-Gaussian laser beams

A closed-form propagation equation of Hermite-cosh-Gaussian beams passing through an unapertured thin lens is derived. Focal shifts are analyzed by means of two different methods according to the facts that the axial intensity of some focused Hermite-cosh-Gaussian beams are null and that of some others are not null but the principal maximum intensity may be located on the axis or off the axis. Optimal focusing for the beams is studied, and the condition of optimal focusing ensuring the smallest beam width is also given. (c) 2005 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Unveiling the factors shaping the distribution of widely distributed alpine vertebrates, using multi-scale ecological niche modelling of the bat Plecotus macrobullaris

Several alpine vertebrates share a distribution pattern that extends across the South-western Palearctic but is limited to the main mountain massifs. Although they are usually regarded as cold-adapted species, the range of many alpine vertebrates also includes relatively warm areas, suggesting that factors beyond climatic conditions may be driving their distribution. In this work we first recognize the species belonging to the mentioned biogeographic group and, based on the environmental niche analysis of Plecotus macrobullaris, we identify and characterize the environmental factors constraining their ranges. Distribution overlap analysis of 504 European vertebrates was done using the Sorensen Similarity Index, and we identified four birds and one mammal that share the distribution with P. macrobullaris. We generated 135 environmental niche models including different variable combinations and regularization values for P. macrobullaris at two different scales and resolutions. After selecting the best models, we observed that topographic variables outperformed climatic predictors, and the abruptness of the landscape showed better predictive ability than elevation. The best explanatory climatic variable was mean summer temperature, which showed that P. macrobullaris is able to cope with mean temperature ranges spanning up to 16 degrees C. The models showed that the distribution of P. macrobullaris is mainly shaped by topographic factors that provide rock-abundant and open-space habitats rather than climatic determinants, and that the species is not a cold-adapted, but rather a cold-tolerant eurithermic organism. P. macrobullaris shares its distribution pattern as well as several ecological features with five other alpine vertebrates, suggesting that the conclusions obtained from this study might be extensible to them. We concluded that rock-dwelling and open-space foraging vertebrates with broad temperature tolerance are the best candidates to show wide alpine distribution in the Western Palearctic.

Ontogenetic and temporal variability in the fat content and fatty acid composition of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) from the Bay of Fundy, Canada

Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) is an ecologically and economically valuable species in many food webs, yet surprisingly little is known about the variation in the nutritional quality of these fish. Atlantic herring collected from 2005 through 2008 from the Bay of Fundy, Canada, were examined for variability in their nutritional quality by using total lipid content (n=889) and fatty acid composition (n=551) as proxies for nutritional value. A significant positive relationship was found between fish length and total lipid content. Atlantic herring also had significantly different fatty acid signatures by age. Fish from 2005 had significantly lower total lipid content than fish from 2006 through 2008, and all years had significantly different fatty acid signatures. Summer fish were significantly fatter than winter fish and had significantly different fatty acid signatures. For all comparisons (ontogenetic, annual, and seasonal) percent concentrations of omega-3, -6, and long-chain monounsaturated fatty acids were the most important for distinguishing between the fatty acid signatures of fish. This study underscores the importance of quantifying variation in prey quality synoptically with prey quantity in food webs over ontogenetic and temporal scales when evaluating the effect of prey nutritional quality on predators and on modeling trophic dynamics.

Ontogenetic patterns and temperature-dependent growth rates in early life stages of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus)

Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) is an important component of fisheries and food webs in the North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea. However, vital rates of early life stages of this species have yet to be described in detail. We determined the thermal sensitivity of growth rates of embryos, preflexion and postflexion larvae, and postsettlement juveniles. Growth rates (length and mass) at each ontogenetic stage were measured in three replicate tanks at four to five temperatures. Nonlinear regression was used to obtain parameters for independent stage-specific growth functions and a unified size- and temperature-dependent growth function. Specific growth rates increased with temperature at all stages and generally decreased with increases in body size. However, these analyses revealed a departure from a strict size-based allometry in growth patterns, as reduced growth rates were observed among preflexion larvae: the reduction in specific growth rate between embryos and free-swimming larvae was greater than expected based on body size differences. Growth reductions in the preflexion larvae appear to be associated with increased metabolic rates and the transition from endogenous to exogenous feeding. In future studies, experiments should be integrated across life transitions to more clearly define intrinsic ontogenetic and size-dependent growth patterns because these are critical for evaluations of spatial and temporal variation in habitat quality.

A 4500-year time series of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) size and abundance: archaeology, oceanic regime shifts, and sustainable fisheries

A 4500-year archaeological record of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) bones from Sanak Island, Alaska, was used to assess the sustainability of the modern fishery and the effects of this fishery on the size of fish caught. Allometric reconstructions of Pacific cod length for eight prehistoric time periods indicated that the current size of the nearshore, commercially fished Pacific cod stocks is statistically unchanged from that of fish caught during 4500 years of subsistence harvesting. This finding indicates that the current Pacific cod fishery that uses selective harvesting technolog ies is a sustainable commercial fishery. Variation in relative Pacific cod abundances provides further insights into the response of this species to punctuated changes in ocean climate (regime shifts) and indicates that Pacific cod stocks can recover from major environmental perturbations. Such palaeofisheries data can extend the short time-series of fisheries data (<50 yr) that form the basis for fisheries management in the Gulf of Alaska and place current trends within the context of centennial- or millennial-scale patterns.

Modification of the biological intercept model to account for ontogenetic effects in laboratory-reared delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus)*

We investigated age, growth, and ontogenetic effects on the proportionality of otolith size to fish size in laboratory-reared delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) from the San Francisco Bay estuary. Delta smelt larvae were reared from hatching in laboratory mesocosms for 100 days. Otolith increments from known-age fish were enumerated to validate that growth increments were deposited daily and to validate the age of fish at first ring formation. Delta smelt were found to lay down daily ring increments; however, the first increment did not form until six days after hatching. The relationship between otolith size and fish size was not biased by age or growth-rate effects but did exhibit an interruption in linear growth owing to an ontogenetic shift at the postflexon stage. To back-calculate the size-at-age of individual fish, we modified the biological intercept (BI) model to account for ontogenetic changes in the otolith-size−fish-size relationship and compared the results to the time-varying growth model, as well as the modified Fry model. We found the modified BI model estimated more accurately the size-at-age from hatching to 100 days after hatching. Before back-calculating size-at-age with existing models, we recommend a critical evaluation of the effects that age, growth, and ontogeny can have on the otolith-size−fish-size relations

Diet and feeding ecology of two sizes of Barbodes gonionotus (=Puntius gonionotus) and Oreochromis sp. in ricefields in Bangladesh

Fish culture experiments were conducted to compare and evaluate the feeding pattern and strategies, daily ration, gastric evacuation rates, dietary breadth, similarity and overlap of silver barb, Barbodes gonionotus, and tilapia, Oreochromis sp. (natural hybrid of O. mossambicus x O. niloticus) in a rice-fish system. B. gonionotus was found to be a macrophtophagous column feeder while Oreochromis sp. was a detrivorous benthophagic browser. Ontogenic shifts in diet were clearly observed in B. gonionotus while absent in Oreochromis sp. For both species, daily food ration for the small fish was twice as large as that for the large fish. Mean rates of gastric evacuation were 0.18 h super(1) for small and 0.05 h super(1) for large B. gonionotus and 0.09 h super(1) and 0.14h super(1) for small and large Oreochromis sp., respectively. In terms of intraspecific dietary width, the smaller sized individuals of both species had a wider dietary niche than the larger conspecifics. Larger fish increased their specialization and reliance on few food items with increasing size and competitive ability. When both species were reared together, B. gonionotus showed a wider niche width than tilapia. Wider interspecific niche width of B. gonionotus compared to that of tilapia and significant interspecific dietary overlap is likely to result in suppression of the growth of tilapia in mixed culture due to: 1) a high degree of specialization and reliance of tilapia on food of low-nutrient value, and 2) slower gastric evacuation rates as compared to B. gonionotus, which would allow B. gonionotus to outgrow similar sized tilapia.

Anfíbios em uma floresta úmida da vertente pacífico ao sudoeste da Colômbia: avaliação da diversidade e sistemática de espécies, e o uso de recursos alimentares

Na Colômbia ocorrem 787 espécies de anfíbios. Por causa da preocupação com o estado de conservação de muitas dessas espécies, tem se sugerido que na Colômbia deveriam-se priorizar as pesquisas em taxonomia e ecologia em regiões sub-amostradas a fim de intensificar o conhecimento e conservação dos anfíbios colombianos. Baseados em uma análise cienciométrica de 319 trabalhos sobre a ecologia dos anfíbios colombianos publicados entre 1840 e 2014 (No Capítulo 1), identificamos as tendências nos esforços realizados em distintos temas de pesquisa, e a distribuição regional e taxonômica desses estudos. A maioria dos estudos (67%) foi realizada na região Andina colombiana em comparação com outras regiões naturais da Colômbia. Apenas 46% das espécies de anfíbios ocorrendo na Colômbia foi tratada nos estudos analizados, e a maioria (58%) delas é da região Andina. Entre as publicações analizadas identificamos 14 temas de pesquisa em ecologia, dos quais ecologia reprodutiva (26%), conservação de espécies (23%) e dieta (14%) foram os mais pesquisados. Nossos dados mostraram que na Colômbia há um considerável avanço na pesquisa sobre a ecologia dos anfíbios do país, mas ainda são necessários esforços para cobrir muitos vazios de informação para muitas regiões e para muitas espécies de anfíbios que possuem dados incipientes. No sudoeste da Cordilheira Ocidental colombiana há pouca informação ecológica sobre os anfíbios ali ocorrendo. A fim de saber alguns aspectos ecológicos dessas espécies, desenvolvimos três estudos sobre a diversidade e ecologia de anfíbios presentes na Reserva Natural Río Ñambí (a seguir RNRÑ). No Capítulo 2 apresentamos uma análise sistemática do gênero Andinophryne (Família Bufonidae), composto por três espécies, A. atelopoides, A. colomai (presente na RNRÑ) e A. olallai. As filogenias mostraram que Andinophryne está incorporado dentro de Rhaebo. Portanto, sinonimizamos Andinophryne sob Rhaebo e discutimos as sinapomorfias morfológicas putativas para Rhaebo. Além, fornecemos informações ecológicas e sobre o estado de conservação das três espécies incluídas na nova combinação taxonômica. No Capítulo 3 apresentamos uma lista de 19 espécies de anfíbios pertencentes a oito famílias, com uma dominância numérica da família Craugastoridae e do gênero Pristimantis. As espécies com a maior abundância relativa (> 25%) foram Pristimantis labiosus e P. verecundus. Sete diferentes modos de reprodução foram reconhecidos, com a maioria das espécies (68%) possuindo desenvolvimento direto de ovos. Cinco (26%) das espécies registradas estão classificadas dentro das categorias de maior ameaça de extinção. Reportamos para sete espécies a extensão da faixa de distribuição geográfica latitudinal na Colômbia. No Capítulo 4 comparamos a dieta de jovens e adultos de P. labiosus para identificar se houve uma mudança ontogenética no tamanho de presa consumido com o aumento na largura da boca. A dieta foi composta por 19 categorias de presas (> artrópodes), com as duas classes de idade consumindo um similar espectro de categorias. Os jovens têm um nicho trófico maior (0,45) do que os adultos (0,25), com uma sobreposição de nicho relativamente baixa (0,39) entre eles. Apesar da diferencia na largura da boca entre jovens e adultos, não houve uma correspondente mudança ontogenética no tamanho de presa consumida. Consideramos P. labiosus como um predador generalista que parece consumer uma ampla gama de tipos e tamanhos de presas