Probability and statistics

Now in its sixth edition, the Traffic Engineering Handbook continues to be a must have publication in the transportation industry, as it has been for the past 60 years. The new edition provides updated information for people entering the practice and for those already practicing. The handbook is a convenient desk reference, as well as an all in one source of principles and proven techniques in traffic engineering. Most chapters are presented in a new format, which divides the chapters into four areas-basics, current practice, emerging trends and information sources. Chapter topics include road users, vehicle characteristics, statistics, planning for operations, communications, safety, regulations, traffic calming, access management, geometrics, signs and markings, signals, parking, traffic demand, maintenance and studies. In addition, as the focus in transportation has shifted from project based to operations based, two new chapters have been added-"Planning for Operations" and "Managing Traffic Demand to Address Congestion: Providing Travelers with Choices." The Traffic Engineering Handbook continues to be one of the primary reference sources for study to become a certified Professional Traffic Operations Engineer™. Chapters are authored by notable and experienced authors, and reviewed and edited by a distinguished panel of traffic engineering experts.

Persons with age-related maculopathy risk genotypes and clinically normal eyes have reduced mesopic vision

PURPOSE: To determine if participants with normal visual acuity, no ophthalmoscopically signs of age-related maculopathy (ARM) in both eyes and who are carriers of the CFH, LOC387715 and HRTA1 high-risk genotypes (“gene-positive”) have impaired rod- and cone-mediated mesopic visual function compared to persons who do not carry the risk genotypes (“gene-negative”).---------- METHODS: Fifty-three Caucasian study participants (mean 55.8 ± 6.1) were genotyped for CFH, LOC387715/ARMS2 and HRTA1 polymorphisms. We genotyped single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the CFH (rs380390), LOC387715/ARMS2 (rs10490924) and HTRA1 (rs11200638) genes using Applied Biosystems optimised TaqMan assays. We determined the critical fusion frequency (CFF) mediated by cones alone (Long, Middle and Short wavelength sensitive cones; LMS) and by the combined activities of cones and rods (LMSR). The stimuli were generated using a 4-primary photostimulator that provides independent control of the photoreceptor excitation under mesopic light levels. Visual function was further assessed using standard clinical tests, flicker perimetry and microperimetry.---------- RESULTS: The mesopic CFF mediated by rods and cones (LMSR) was significantly reduced in gene-positive compared to gene-negative participants after correction for age (p=0.03). Cone-mediated CFF (LMS) was not significantly different between gene-positive and -negative participants. There were no significant associations between flicker perimetry and microperimetry and genotype.---------- CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to relate ARM risk genotypes with mesopic visual function in clinically normal persons. These preliminary results could become of clinical importance as mesopic vision may be used to document sub-clinical retinal changes in persons with risk genotypes and to determine whether those persons progress into manifest disease.

The probability archive : from essence to uncertainty in the growth of knowledge

From a ‘cultural science’ perspective, this paper traces one aspect of a more general shift, from the realist representational regime of modernity to the productive DIY systems of the internet era. It argues that collecting and archiving is transformed by this change. Modern museums – and also broadcast television – were based on determinist or ‘essence’ theory; while internet archives like YouTube (and the internet as an archive) are based on ‘probability’ theory. The paper goes through the differences between modernist ‘essence’ and postmodern ‘probability’; starting from the obvious difference that in a museum each object is selected by experts for its intrinsic properties, while on the internet you don’t know what you will find. The status of individual objects is uncertain, although the productivity of the overall archive is unlimited. The paper links these differences with changes in contemporary culture – from a Newtonian to a quantum universe, progress to risk, institutional structure to evolutionary change, objectivity to uncertainty, identity to performance. Borrowing some of its methodology from science fiction, the paper uses examples from museums and online archives, ranging from the oldest stone tool in the world to the latest tribute vid on the net.

Applying ISOMAP to the learning of hyperspectral image

In this paper, we present the application of a non-linear dimensionality reduction technique for the learning and probabilistic classification of hyperspectral image. Hyperspectral image spectroscopy is an emerging technique for geological investigations from airborne or orbital sensors. It gives much greater information content per pixel on the image than a normal colour image. This should greatly help with the autonomous identification of natural and manmade objects in unfamiliar terrains for robotic vehicles. However, the large information content of such data makes interpretation of hyperspectral images time-consuming and userintensive. We propose the use of Isomap, a non-linear manifold learning technique combined with Expectation Maximisation in graphical probabilistic models for learning and classification. Isomap is used to find the underlying manifold of the training data. This low dimensional representation of the hyperspectral data facilitates the learning of a Gaussian Mixture Model representation, whose joint probability distributions can be calculated offline. The learnt model is then applied to the hyperspectral image at runtime and data classification can be performed.

Computed success rates of various carrier phase integer estimation solutions and their comparison with statistical success rates

The success rate of carrier phase ambiguity resolution (AR) is the probability that the ambiguities are successfully fixed to their correct integer values. In existing works, an exact success rate formula for integer bootstrapping estimator has been used as a sharp lower bound for the integer least squares (ILS) success rate. Rigorous computation of success rate for the more general ILS solutions has been considered difficult, because of complexity of the ILS ambiguity pull-in region and computational load of the integration of the multivariate probability density function. Contributions of this work are twofold. First, the pull-in region mathematically expressed as the vertices of a polyhedron is represented by a multi-dimensional grid, at which the cumulative probability can be integrated with the multivariate normal cumulative density function (mvncdf) available in Matlab. The bivariate case is studied where the pull-region is usually defined as a hexagon and the probability is easily obtained using mvncdf at all the grid points within the convex polygon. Second, the paper compares the computed integer rounding and integer bootstrapping success rates, lower and upper bounds of the ILS success rates to the actual ILS AR success rates obtained from a 24 h GPS data set for a 21 km baseline. The results demonstrate that the upper bound probability of the ILS AR probability given in the existing literatures agrees with the actual ILS success rate well, although the success rate computed with integer bootstrapping method is a quite sharp approximation to the actual ILS success rate. The results also show that variations or uncertainty of the unit–weight variance estimates from epoch to epoch will affect the computed success rates from different methods significantly, thus deserving more attentions in order to obtain useful success probability predictions.

Postural balance under normal and altered sensory conditions in normal-weight and overweight children

Background Little or no research has been done in the overweight child on the relative contribution of multisensory information to maintain postural stability. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate postural balance control under normal and experimentally altered sensory conditions in normal-weight versus overweight children. Methods Sixty children were stratified into a younger (7–9 yr) and an older age group (10–12 yr). Participants were also classified as normal-weight (n = 22) or overweight (n = 38), according to the international BMI cut-off points for children. Postural stability was assessed during quiet bilateral stance in four sensory conditions (eyes open or closed, normal or reduced plantar sensation), using a Kistler force plate to quantify COP dynamics. Coefficients of variation were calculated as well to describe intra-individual variability. Findings Removal of vision resulted in systematically higher amounts of postural sway, but no significant BMI group differences were demonstrated across sensory conditions. However, under normal conditions lower plantar cutaneous sensation was associated with higher COP velocities and maximal excursion of the COP in the medial-lateral direction for the overweight group. Regardless of condition, higher variability was shown in the overweight children within the 7–9 yr old subgroup for postural sway velocity, and more specifically medial–lateral velocity. Interpretation In spite of these subtle differences, results did not establish any clear underlying sensory organization impairments that may affect standing balance performance in overweight children compared to normal-weight peers. Consequently, it is believed that other factors account for overweight children's functional balance deficiencies.

The role of vision in obese and normal-weight children's gait control

Previous research has suggested that perceptual-motor difficulties may account for obese children's lower motor competence; however, specific evidence is currently lacking. Therefore, this study examined the effect of altered visual conditions on spatiotemporal and kinematic gait parameters in obese versus normal-weight children. Thirty-two obese and normal-weight children (11.2 ± 1.5 years) walked barefoot on an instrumented walkway at constant self-selected speed during LIGHT and DARK conditions. Three-dimensional motion analysis was performed to calculate spatiotemporal parameters, as well as sagittal trunk segment and lower extremity joint angles at heel-strike and toe-off. Self-selected speed did not significantly differ between groups. In the DARK condition, all participants walked at a significantly slower speed, decreased stride length, and increased stride width. Without normal vision, obese children had a more pronounced increase in relative double support time compared to the normal-weight group, resulting in a significantly greater percentage of the gait cycle spent in stance. Walking in the DARK, both groups showed greater forward tilt of the trunk and restricted hip movement. All participants had increased knee flexion at heel-strike, as well as decreased knee extension and ankle plantarflexion at toe-off in the DARK condition. The removal of normal vision affected obese children's temporal gait pattern to a larger extent than that of normal-weight peers. Results suggest an increased dependency on vision in obese children to control locomotion. Next to the mechanical problem of moving excess mass, a different coupling between perception and action appears to be governing obese children's motor coordination and control.

A probability-based approach for assessing the relationship between crash accidents and pavement properties

Skid resistance is a condition parameter characterising the contribution that a road makes to the friction between a road surface and a vehicle tyre. Studies of traffic crash histories around the world have consistently found that a disproportionate number of crashes occur where the road surface has a low level of surface friction and/or surface texture, particularly when the road surface is wet. Various research results have been published over many years and have tried to quantify the influence of skid resistance on accident occurrence and to characterise a correlation between skid resistance and accident frequency. Most of the research studies used simple statistical correlation methods in analysing skid resistance and crash data.----- ------ Preliminary findings of a systematic and extensive literature search conclude that there is rarely a single causation factor in a crash. Findings from research projects do affirm various levels of correlation between skid resistance and accident occurrence. Studies indicate that the level of skid resistance at critical places such as intersections, curves, roundabouts, ramps and approaches to pedestrian crossings needs to be well maintained.----- ----- Management of risk is an integral aspect of the Queensland Department of Main Roads (QDMR) strategy for managing its infrastructure assets. The risk-based approach has been used in many areas of infrastructure engineering. However, very limited information is reported on using risk-based approach to mitigate crash rates related to road surface. Low skid resistance and surface texture may increase the risk of traffic crashes.----- ----- The objectives of this paper are to explore current issues of skid resistance in relation to crashes, to provide a framework of probability-based approach to be adopted by QDMR in assessing the relationship between crash accidents and pavement properties, and to explain why the probability-based approach is a suitable tool for QDMR in order to reduce accident rates due to skid resistance.

Identifying relationship between skid resistance, road characteristics and crashes using probability-based risk approach

Road accidents are of great concerns for road and transport departments around world, which cause tremendous loss and dangers for public. Reducing accident rates and crash severity are imperative goals that governments, road and transport authorities, and researchers are aimed to achieve. In Australia, road crash trauma costs the nation A$ 15 billion annually. Five people are killed, and 550 are injured every day. Each fatality costs the taxpayer A$1.7 million. Serious injury cases can cost the taxpayer many times the cost of a fatality. Crashes are in general uncontrolled events and are dependent on a number of interrelated factors such as driver behaviour, traffic conditions, travel speed, road geometry and condition, and vehicle characteristics (e.g. tyre type pressure and condition, and suspension type and condition). Skid resistance is considered one of the most important surface characteristics as it has a direct impact on traffic safety. Attempts have been made worldwide to study the relationship between skid resistance and road crashes. Most of these studies used the statistical regression and correlation methods in analysing the relationships between skid resistance and road crashes. The outcomes from these studies provided mix results and not conclusive. The objective of this paper is to present a probability-based method of an ongoing study in identifying the relationship between skid resistance and road crashes. Historical skid resistance and crash data of a road network located in the tropical east coast of Queensland were analysed using the probability-based method. Analysis methodology and results of the relationships between skid resistance, road characteristics and crashes are presented.