Community Policing in Switzerland's Major Urban Areas: An Observational Study of the Implementation and Impact Using Geospatial Data Mining

La présente étude est à la fois une évaluation du processus de la mise en oeuvre et des impacts de la police de proximité dans les cinq plus grandes zones urbaines de Suisse - Bâle, Berne, Genève, Lausanne et Zurich. La police de proximité (community policing) est à la fois une philosophie et une stratégie organisationnelle qui favorise un partenariat renouvelé entre la police et les communautés locales dans le but de résoudre les problèmes relatifs à la sécurité et à l'ordre public. L'évaluation de processus a analysé des données relatives aux réformes internes de la police qui ont été obtenues par l'intermédiaire d'entretiens semi-structurés avec des administrateurs clés des cinq départements de police, ainsi que dans des documents écrits de la police et d'autres sources publiques. L'évaluation des impacts, quant à elle, s'est basée sur des variables contextuelles telles que des statistiques policières et des données de recensement, ainsi que sur des indicateurs d'impacts construit à partir des données du Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) relatives au sentiment d'insécurité, à la perception du désordre public et à la satisfaction de la population à l'égard de la police. Le SCS est un sondage régulier qui a permis d'interroger des habitants des cinq grandes zones urbaines à plusieurs reprises depuis le milieu des années 1980. L'évaluation de processus a abouti à un « Calendrier des activités » visant à créer des données de panel permettant de mesurer les progrès réalisés dans la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité à l'aide d'une grille d'évaluation à six dimensions à des intervalles de cinq ans entre 1990 et 2010. L'évaluation des impacts, effectuée ex post facto, a utilisé un concept de recherche non-expérimental (observational design) dans le but d'analyser les impacts de différents modèles de police de proximité dans des zones comparables à travers les cinq villes étudiées. Les quartiers urbains, délimités par zone de code postal, ont ainsi été regroupés par l'intermédiaire d'une typologie réalisée à l'aide d'algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique (machine learning). Des algorithmes supervisés et non supervisés ont été utilisés sur les données à haute dimensionnalité relatives à la criminalité, à la structure socio-économique et démographique et au cadre bâti dans le but de regrouper les quartiers urbains les plus similaires dans des clusters. D'abord, les cartes auto-organisatrices (self-organizing maps) ont été utilisées dans le but de réduire la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et de maximiser simultanément la variance inter-cluster des réponses au sondage. Ensuite, l'algorithme des forêts d'arbres décisionnels (random forests) a permis à la fois d'évaluer la pertinence de la typologie de quartier élaborée et de sélectionner les variables contextuelles clés afin de construire un modèle parcimonieux faisant un minimum d'erreurs de classification. Enfin, pour l'analyse des impacts, la méthode des appariements des coefficients de propension (propensity score matching) a été utilisée pour équilibrer les échantillons prétest-posttest en termes d'âge, de sexe et de niveau d'éducation des répondants au sein de chaque type de quartier ainsi identifié dans chacune des villes, avant d'effectuer un test statistique de la différence observée dans les indicateurs d'impacts. De plus, tous les résultats statistiquement significatifs ont été soumis à une analyse de sensibilité (sensitivity analysis) afin d'évaluer leur robustesse face à un biais potentiel dû à des covariables non observées. L'étude relève qu'au cours des quinze dernières années, les cinq services de police ont entamé des réformes majeures de leur organisation ainsi que de leurs stratégies opérationnelles et qu'ils ont noué des partenariats stratégiques afin de mettre en oeuvre la police de proximité. La typologie de quartier développée a abouti à une réduction de la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et permet d'expliquer une partie significative de la variance inter-cluster des indicateurs d'impacts avant la mise en oeuvre du traitement. Ceci semble suggérer que les méthodes de géocomputation aident à équilibrer les covariables observées et donc à réduire les menaces relatives à la validité interne d'un concept de recherche non-expérimental. Enfin, l'analyse des impacts a révélé que le sentiment d'insécurité a diminué de manière significative pendant la période 2000-2005 dans les quartiers se trouvant à l'intérieur et autour des centres-villes de Berne et de Zurich. Ces améliorations sont assez robustes face à des biais dus à des covariables inobservées et covarient dans le temps et l'espace avec la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité. L'hypothèse alternative envisageant que les diminutions observées dans le sentiment d'insécurité soient, partiellement, un résultat des interventions policières de proximité semble donc être aussi plausible que l'hypothèse nulle considérant l'absence absolue d'effet. Ceci, même si le concept de recherche non-expérimental mis en oeuvre ne peut pas complètement exclure la sélection et la régression à la moyenne comme explications alternatives. The current research project is both a process and impact evaluation of community policing in Switzerland's five major urban areas - Basel, Bern, Geneva, Lausanne, and Zurich. Community policing is both a philosophy and an organizational strategy that promotes a renewed partnership between the police and the community to solve problems of crime and disorder. The process evaluation data on police internal reforms were obtained through semi-structured interviews with key administrators from the five police departments as well as from police internal documents and additional public sources. The impact evaluation uses official crime records and census statistics as contextual variables as well as Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) data on fear of crime, perceptions of disorder, and public attitudes towards the police as outcome measures. The SCS is a standing survey instrument that has polled residents of the five urban areas repeatedly since the mid-1980s. The process evaluation produced a "Calendar of Action" to create panel data to measure community policing implementation progress over six evaluative dimensions in intervals of five years between 1990 and 2010. The impact evaluation, carried out ex post facto, uses an observational design that analyzes the impact of the different community policing models between matched comparison areas across the five cities. Using ZIP code districts as proxies for urban neighborhoods, geospatial data mining algorithms serve to develop a neighborhood typology in order to match the comparison areas. To this end, both unsupervised and supervised algorithms are used to analyze high-dimensional data on crime, the socio-economic and demographic structure, and the built environment in order to classify urban neighborhoods into clusters of similar type. In a first step, self-organizing maps serve as tools to develop a clustering algorithm that reduces the within-cluster variance in the contextual variables and simultaneously maximizes the between-cluster variance in survey responses. The random forests algorithm then serves to assess the appropriateness of the resulting neighborhood typology and to select the key contextual variables in order to build a parsimonious model that makes a minimum of classification errors. Finally, for the impact analysis, propensity score matching methods are used to match the survey respondents of the pretest and posttest samples on age, gender, and their level of education for each neighborhood type identified within each city, before conducting a statistical test of the observed difference in the outcome measures. Moreover, all significant results were subjected to a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of these findings in the face of potential bias due to some unobserved covariates. The study finds that over the last fifteen years, all five police departments have undertaken major reforms of their internal organization and operating strategies and forged strategic partnerships in order to implement community policing. The resulting neighborhood typology reduced the within-cluster variance of the contextual variables and accounted for a significant share of the between-cluster variance in the outcome measures prior to treatment, suggesting that geocomputational methods help to balance the observed covariates and hence to reduce threats to the internal validity of an observational design. Finally, the impact analysis revealed that fear of crime dropped significantly over the 2000-2005 period in the neighborhoods in and around the urban centers of Bern and Zurich. These improvements are fairly robust in the face of bias due to some unobserved covariate and covary temporally and spatially with the implementation of community policing. The alternative hypothesis that the observed reductions in fear of crime were at least in part a result of community policing interventions thus appears at least as plausible as the null hypothesis of absolutely no effect, even if the observational design cannot completely rule out selection and regression to the mean as alternative explanations.

A new linear initialization in SOM for biomolecular data

In the past decade, the amount of data in biological field has become larger and larger; Bio-techniques for analysis of biological data have been developed and new tools have been introduced. Several computational methods are based on unsupervised neural network algorithms that are widely used for multiple purposes including clustering and visualization, i.e. the Self Organizing Maps (SOM). Unfortunately, even though this method is unsupervised, the performances in terms of quality of result and learning speed are strongly dependent from the neuron weights initialization. In this paper we present a new initialization technique based on a totally connected undirected graph, that report relations among some intersting features of data input. Result of experimental tests, where the proposed algorithm is compared to the original initialization techniques, shows that our technique assures faster learning and better performance in terms of quantization error.

An incremental space to visualize dynamic data sets

In Information Visualization, adding and removing data elements can strongly impact the underlying visual space. We have developed an inherently incremental technique (incBoard) that maintains a coherent disposition of elements from a dynamic multidimensional data set on a 2D grid as the set changes. Here, we introduce a novel layout that uses pairwise similarity from grid neighbors, as defined in incBoard, to reposition elements on the visual space, free from constraints imposed by the grid. The board continues to be updated and can be displayed alongside the new space. As similar items are placed together, while dissimilar neighbors are moved apart, it supports users in the identification of clusters and subsets of related elements. Densely populated areas identified in the incSpace can be efficiently explored with the corresponding incBoard visualization, which is not susceptible to occlusion. The solution remains inherently incremental and maintains a coherent disposition of elements, even for fully renewed sets. The algorithm considers relative positions for the initial placement of elements, and raw dissimilarity to fine tune the visualization. It has low computational cost, with complexity depending only on the size of the currently viewed subset, V. Thus, a data set of size N can be sequentially displayed in O(N) time, reaching O(N (2)) only if the complete set is simultaneously displayed.

Digital soil mapping: evaluation of sampling systems for soil surveys and refinement of soil maps at lower cost using legacy data

In soil surveys, several sampling systems can be used to define the most representative sites for sample collection and description of soil profiles. In recent years, the conditioned Latin hypercube sampling system has gained prominence for soil surveys. In Brazil, most of the soil maps are at small scales and in paper format, which hinders their refinement. The objectives of this work include: (i) to compare two sampling systems by conditioned Latin hypercube to map soil classes and soil properties; (II) to retrieve information from a detailed scale soil map of a pilot watershed for its refinement, comparing two data mining tools, and validation of the new soil map; and (III) to create and validate a soil map of a much larger and similar area from the extrapolation of information extracted from the existing soil map. Two sampling systems were created by conditioned Latin hypercube and by the cost-constrained conditioned Latin hypercube. At each prospection place, soil classification and measurement of the A horizon thickness were performed. Maps were generated and validated for each sampling system, comparing the efficiency of these methods. The conditioned Latin hypercube captured greater variability of soils and properties than the cost-constrained conditioned Latin hypercube, despite the former provided greater difficulty in field work. The conditioned Latin hypercube can capture greater soil variability and the cost-constrained conditioned Latin hypercube presents great potential for use in soil surveys, especially in areas of difficult access. From an existing detailed scale soil map of a pilot watershed, topographical information for each soil class was extracted from a Digital Elevation Model and its derivatives, by two data mining tools. Maps were generated using each tool. The more accurate of these tools was used for extrapolation of soil information for a much larger and similar area and the generated map was validated. It was possible to retrieve the existing soil map information and apply it on a larger area containing similar soil forming factors, at much low financial cost. The KnowledgeMiner tool for data mining, and ArcSIE, used to create the soil map, presented better results and enabled the use of existing soil map to extract soil information and its application in similar larger areas at reduced costs, which is especially important in development countries with limited financial resources for such activities, such as Brazil.

Air pollution data classification by SOM Neural Network

Over the last ten years, Salamanca has been considered among the most polluted cities in México. This paper presents a Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) Neural Network application to classify pollution data and automatize the air pollution level determination for Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) in Salamanca. Meteorological parameters are well known to be important factors contributing to air quality estimation and prediction. In order to observe the behavior and clarify the influence of wind parameters on the SO2 concentrations a SOM Neural Network have been implemented along a year. The main advantages of the SOM is that it allows to integrate data from different sensors and provide readily interpretation results. Especially, it is powerful mapping and classification tool, which others information in an easier way and facilitates the task of establishing an order of priority between the distinguished groups of concentrations depending on their need for further research or remediation actions in subsequent management steps. The results show a significative correlation between pollutant concentrations and some environmental variables.

Latest developments in data analysis tools for disruption prediction and for the exploration of multimachine operational spaces.

In the last years significant efforts have been devoted to the development of advanced data analysis tools to both predict the occurrence of disruptions and to investigate the operational spaces of devices, with the long term goal of advancing the understanding of the physics of these events and to prepare for ITER. On JET the latest generation of the disruption predictor called APODIS has been deployed in the real time network during the last campaigns with the new metallic wall. Even if it was trained only with discharges with the carbon wall, it has reached very good performance, with both missed alarms and false alarms in the order of a few percent (and strategies to improve the performance have already been identified). Since for the optimisation of the mitigation measures, predicting also the type of disruption is considered to be also very important, a new clustering method, based on the geodesic distance on a probabilistic manifold, has been developed. This technique allows automatic classification of an incoming disruption with a success rate of better than 85%. Various other manifold learning tools, particularly Principal Component Analysis and Self Organised Maps, are also producing very interesting results in the comparative analysis of JET and ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) operational spaces, on the route to developing predictors capable of extrapolating from one device to another.

Knowledge-based analysis of microarray gene expression data by using support vector machines

We introduce a method of functionally classifying genes by using gene expression data from DNA microarray hybridization experiments. The method is based on the theory of support vector machines (SVMs). SVMs are considered a supervised computer learning method because they exploit prior knowledge of gene function to identify unknown genes of similar function from expression data. SVMs avoid several problems associated with unsupervised clustering methods, such as hierarchical clustering and self-organizing maps. SVMs have many mathematical features that make them attractive for gene expression analysis, including their flexibility in choosing a similarity function, sparseness of solution when dealing with large data sets, the ability to handle large feature spaces, and the ability to identify outliers. We test several SVMs that use different similarity metrics, as well as some other supervised learning methods, and find that the SVMs best identify sets of genes with a common function using expression data. Finally, we use SVMs to predict functional roles for uncharacterized yeast ORFs based on their expression data.

Effects of harvesting callianassid (ghost) shrimps on subtropical benthic communities

The effects of harvesting of callianassid shrimp (Trypaea australiensis) on the abundance and composition of macrobenthic assemblages in unvegetated sediments of a subtropical coastal embayment in Queensland, Australia were examined using a combination of sampling and manipulative experiments. First, the abundance and composition of the benthic infauna in an area regularly used for the collection of shrimp for bait by recreational anglers was compared with multiple reference areas. Second, a BACI design, with multiple reference areas, was used to examine the short-term effects of harvesting on the benthic assemblages from an intensive commercialised fishing competition. Third, a large-scale, controlled manipulative experiment, where shrimp were harvested from 10,000 m(2) plots at intensities commensurate with those from recreational and commercial operators, was done to determine the impacts on different components of the infaunal assemblage. Only a few benthic taxa showed significant declines in abundance in response to the removal of ghost shrimp from the unvegetated sediments. There was evidence, however, of more subtle effects with changes in the degree of spatial variation (patchiness) of several taxa as a result of harvesting.. Groups such as capitellid polychaetes, gammarid amphipods and some bivalves were significantly more patchy in their distribution in areas subjected to harvesting than reference areas, at a scale of tens of metres. This scale corresponds to the patterns of movement and activity of recreational harvesters working in these areas. In contrast, patchiness in the abundance of ghost shrimp decreased significantly under harvesting at scales of hundreds of metres, in response to harvesters focussing their efforts on areas with greater numbers of burrow entrances, leading to a more even distribution of the animals. Controlled experimental harvesting caused declines in the abundance of soldier crabs (Mictyris longicarpus), polychaetes and amphipods and an increase in the spatial patchiness of polychaetes. Populations of ghost shrimp were, however, resilient to harvesting over extended periods of time. In conclusion, harvesting of ghost shrimp for bait by recreational and commercial fishers causes significant but localised impacts on a limited range of benthic fauna in unvegetated sediments, including changes in the degree of spatial patchiness in their distribution. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Detecting the effects of physical disturbance on benthic assemblages in a subtropical estuary: A Beyond BACI approach

The effects of dredging on the benthic communities in the Noosa River, a subtropical estuary in SE Queensland, Australia, were examined using a 'Beyond BACF experimental design. Changes in the numbers and types of animals and characteristics of the sediments in response to dredging in the coarse sandy sediments near the mouth of the estuary were compared with those occurring naturally in two control regions. Samples were collected twice before and twice after the dredging operations, at multiple spatial scales, ranging from metres to kilometres. Significant effects from the dredging were detected on the abundance of some polychaetes and bivalves and two measures of diversity (numbers of polychaete families and total taxonomic richness). In addition, the dredging caused a significant increase in the diversity of sediment particle sizes found in the dredged region compared with elsewhere. Community composition in the dredged region was more similar to that in the control regions after dredging than before. Changes in the characteristics of the sedimentary environment as a result of the dredging appeared to lead to the benthic communities of the dredged region becoming more similar to those elsewhere in the estuary, so dredging in this system may have led to the loss or reduction in area of a specific type of habitat in the estuary with implications for overall patterns of biodiversity and ecosystem function. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Data visualization during the early stages of drug discovery

Multidimensional compound optimization is a new paradigm in the drug discovery process, yielding efficiencies during early stages and reducing attrition in the later stages of drug development. The success of this strategy relies heavily on understanding this multidimensional data and extracting useful information from it. This paper demonstrates how principled visualization algorithms can be used to understand and explore a large data set created in the early stages of drug discovery. The experiments presented are performed on a real-world data set comprising biological activity data and some whole-molecular physicochemical properties. Data visualization is a popular way of presenting complex data in a simpler form. We have applied powerful principled visualization methods, such as generative topographic mapping (GTM) and hierarchical GTM (HGTM), to help the domain experts (screening scientists, chemists, biologists, etc.) understand and draw meaningful decisions. We also benchmark these principled methods against relatively better known visualization approaches, principal component analysis (PCA), Sammon's mapping, and self-organizing maps (SOMs), to demonstrate their enhanced power to help the user visualize the large multidimensional data sets one has to deal with during the early stages of the drug discovery process. The results reported clearly show that the GTM and HGTM algorithms allow the user to cluster active compounds for different targets and understand them better than the benchmarks. An interactive software tool supporting these visualization algorithms was provided to the domain experts. The tool facilitates the domain experts by exploration of the projection obtained from the visualization algorithms providing facilities such as parallel coordinate plots, magnification factors, directional curvatures, and integration with industry standard software. © 2006 American Chemical Society.

Data visualization with simultaneous feature selection

Data visualization algorithms and feature selection techniques are both widely used in bioinformatics but as distinct analytical approaches. Until now there has been no method of measuring feature saliency while training a data visualization model. We derive a generative topographic mapping (GTM) based data visualization approach which estimates feature saliency simultaneously with the training of the visualization model. The approach not only provides a better projection by modeling irrelevant features with a separate noise model but also gives feature saliency values which help the user to assess the significance of each feature. We compare the quality of projection obtained using the new approach with the projections from traditional GTM and self-organizing maps (SOM) algorithms. The results obtained on a synthetic and a real-life chemoinformatics dataset demonstrate that the proposed approach successfully identifies feature significance and provides coherent (compact) projections. © 2006 IEEE.