(Table 1) Maximal daily erythemally effective UVB radiation and total ozone content at Vernadsky Station, Antarctica

One of the research programs carried out within the Czech-Ukrainian scientific co-operation is the monitoring of global solar and ultraviolet radiation at the Vernadsky Station (formerly the British Faraday Station), Antarctica. Radiation measurements have been made since 2002. Recently, a special attention is devoted to the measurements of the erythemally effective UVB radiation using a broadband Robertson Berger 501 UV-Biometer (Solar Light Co. Inc., USA). This paper brings some results from modelling the daily sums of erythemally effective UVB radiation intensity in relation to the total ozone content (TOC) in atmosphere and surface intensity of the global solar radiation. Differences between the satellite- and ground-based measurements of the TOC at the Vernadsky Station are taken into consideration. The modelled erythemally effective UVB radiation differed slightly depending on the seasons and sources of the TOC. The model relative prediction error for ground- and satellite-based measurements varied between 9.5% and 9.6% in the period of 2002-2003, while it ranged from 7.4% to 8.8% in the period of 2003-2004.

Multimodal therapy for complete regression of malignant melanoma using constrained nonlinear optimal dynamic inversion

Using a realistic nonlinear mathematical model for melanoma dynamics and the technique of optimal dynamic inversion (exact feedback linearization with static optimization), a multimodal automatic drug dosage strategy is proposed in this paper for complete regression of melanoma cancer in humans. The proposed strategy computes different drug dosages and gives a nonlinear state feedback solution for driving the number of cancer cells to zero. However, it is observed that when tumor is regressed to certain value, then there is no need of external drug dosages as immune system and other therapeutic states are able to regress tumor at a sufficiently fast rate which is more than exponential rate. As model has three different drug dosages, after applying dynamic inversion philosophy, drug dosages can be selected in optimized manner without crossing their toxicity limits. The combination of drug dosages is decided by appropriately selecting the control design parameter values based on physical constraints. The process is automated for all possible combinations of the chemotherapy and immunotherapy drug dosages with preferential emphasis of having maximum possible variety of drug inputs at any given point of time. Simulation study with a standard patient model shows that tumor cells are regressed from 2 x 107 to order of 105 cells because of external drug dosages in 36.93 days. After this no external drug dosages are required as immune system and other therapeutic states are able to regress tumor at greater than exponential rate and hence, tumor goes to zero (less than 0.01) in 48.77 days and healthy immune system of the patient is restored. Study with different chemotherapy drug resistance value is also carried out. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forward and backward least angle regression for nonlinear system identification

A forward and backward least angle regression (LAR) algorithm is proposed to construct the nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous inputs (NARX) that is widely used to describe a large class of nonlinear dynamic systems. The main objective of this paper is to improve model sparsity and generalization performance of the original forward LAR algorithm. This is achieved by introducing a replacement scheme using an additional backward LAR stage. The backward stage replaces insignificant model terms selected by forward LAR with more significant ones, leading to an improved model in terms of the model compactness and performance. A numerical example to construct four types of NARX models, namely polynomials, radial basis function (RBF) networks, neuro fuzzy and wavelet networks, is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique in comparison with some popular methods.

Robust nonlinear model identification methods using forward regression

In this correspondence new robust nonlinear model construction algorithms for a large class of linear-in-the-parameters models are introduced to enhance model robustness via combined parameter regularization and new robust structural selective criteria. In parallel to parameter regularization, we use two classes of robust model selection criteria based on either experimental design criteria that optimizes model adequacy, or the predicted residual sums of squares (PRESS) statistic that optimizes model generalization capability, respectively. Three robust identification algorithms are introduced, i.e., combined A- and D-optimality with regularized orthogonal least squares algorithm, respectively; and combined PRESS statistic with regularized orthogonal least squares algorithm. A common characteristic of these algorithms is that the inherent computation efficiency associated with the orthogonalization scheme in orthogonal least squares or regularized orthogonal least squares has been extended such that the new algorithms are computationally efficient. Numerical examples are included to demonstrate effectiveness of the algorithms.

A robust nonlinear identification algorithm using PRESS statistic and forward regression

This letter introduces a new robust nonlinear identification algorithm using the Predicted REsidual Sums of Squares (PRESS) statistic and for-ward regression. The major contribution is to compute the PRESS statistic within a framework of a forward orthogonalization process and hence construct a model with a good generalization property. Based on the properties of the PRESS statistic the proposed algorithm can achieve a fully automated procedure without resort to any other validation data set for iterative model evaluation.

Automatic nonlinear predictive model-construction algorithm using forward regression and the PRESS statistic

An automatic nonlinear predictive model-construction algorithm is introduced based on forward regression and the predicted-residual-sums-of-squares (PRESS) statistic. The proposed algorithm is based on the fundamental concept of evaluating a model's generalisation capability through crossvalidation. This is achieved by using the PRESS statistic as a cost function to optimise model structure. In particular, the proposed algorithm is developed with the aim of achieving computational efficiency, such that the computational effort, which would usually be extensive in the computation of the PRESS statistic, is reduced or minimised. The computation of PRESS is simplified by avoiding a matrix inversion through the use of the orthogonalisation procedure inherent in forward regression, and is further reduced significantly by the introduction of a forward-recursive formula. Based on the properties of the PRESS statistic, the proposed algorithm can achieve a fully automated procedure without resort to any other validation data set for iterative model evaluation. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the efficacy of the algorithm.

Nonlinear identification using orthogonal forward regression with nested optimal regularization

An efficient data based-modeling algorithm for nonlinear system identification is introduced for radial basis function (RBF) neural networks with the aim of maximizing generalization capability based on the concept of leave-one-out (LOO) cross validation. Each of the RBF kernels has its own kernel width parameter and the basic idea is to optimize the multiple pairs of regularization parameters and kernel widths, each of which is associated with a kernel, one at a time within the orthogonal forward regression (OFR) procedure. Thus, each OFR step consists of one model term selection based on the LOO mean square error (LOOMSE), followed by the optimization of the associated kernel width and regularization parameter, also based on the LOOMSE. Since like our previous state-of-the-art local regularization assisted orthogonal least squares (LROLS) algorithm, the same LOOMSE is adopted for model selection, our proposed new OFR algorithm is also capable of producing a very sparse RBF model with excellent generalization performance. Unlike our previous LROLS algorithm which requires an additional iterative loop to optimize the regularization parameters as well as an additional procedure to optimize the kernel width, the proposed new OFR algorithm optimizes both the kernel widths and regularization parameters within the single OFR procedure, and consequently the required computational complexity is dramatically reduced. Nonlinear system identification examples are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of this new approach in comparison to the well-known approaches of support vector machine and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator as well as the LROLS algorithm.

Dynamical Systems in Description of Nonlinear Recursive Regression Transformers

The task of approximation-forecasting for a function, represented by empirical data was investigated. Certain class of the functions as forecasting tools: so called RFT-transformers, – was proposed. Least Square Method and superposition are the principal composing means for the function generating. Besides, the special classes of beam dynamics with delay were introduced and investigated to get classical results regarding gradients. These results were applied to optimize the RFT-transformers. The effectiveness of the forecast was demonstrated on the empirical data from the Forex market.

Damping structure selection in nonlinear ship manoeuvring models

This paper presents the application of a statistical method for model structure selection of lift-drag and viscous damping components in ship manoeuvring models. The damping model is posed as a family of linear stochastic models, which is postulated based on previous work in the literature. Then a nested test of hypothesis problem is considered. The testing reduces to a recursive comparison of two competing models, for which optimal tests in the Neyman sense exist. The method yields a preferred model structure and its initial parameter estimates. Alternatively, the method can give a reduced set of likely models. Using simulated data we study how the selection method performs when there is both uncorrelated and correlated noise in the measurements. The first case is related to instrumentation noise, whereas the second case is related to spurious wave-induced motion often present during sea trials. We then consider the model structure selection of a modern high-speed trimaran ferry from full scale trial data.

Regression on fixed-rank positive semidefinite matrices: A Riemannian approach

The paper addresses the problem of learning a regression model parameterized by a fixed-rank positive semidefinite matrix. The focus is on the nonlinear nature of the search space and on scalability to high-dimensional problems. The mathematical developments rely on the theory of gradient descent algorithms adapted to the Riemannian geometry that underlies the set of fixedrank positive semidefinite matrices. In contrast with previous contributions in the literature, no restrictions are imposed on the range space of the learned matrix. The resulting algorithms maintain a linear complexity in the problem size and enjoy important invariance properties. We apply the proposed algorithms to the problem of learning a distance function parameterized by a positive semidefinite matrix. Good performance is observed on classical benchmarks. © 2011 Gilles Meyer, Silvere Bonnabel and Rodolphe Sepulchre.

Randomized nonlinear component analysis

Copyright © (2014) by the International Machine Learning Society (IMLS) All rights reserved. Classical methods such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) are ubiquitous in statistics. However, these techniques are only able to reveal linear re-lationships in data. Although nonlinear variants of PCA and CCA have been proposed, these are computationally prohibitive in the large scale. In a separate strand of recent research, randomized methods have been proposed to construct features that help reveal nonlinear patterns in data. For basic tasks such as regression or classification, random features exhibit little or no loss in performance, while achieving drastic savings in computational requirements. In this paper we leverage randomness to design scalable new variants of nonlinear PCA and CCA; our ideas extend to key multivariate analysis tools such as spectral clustering or LDA. We demonstrate our algorithms through experiments on real- world data, on which we compare against the state-of-the-art. A simple R implementation of the presented algorithms is provided.

A two-stage algorithm for identification of nonlinear dynamic systems

This paper investigates the two-stage stepwise identification for a class of nonlinear dynamic systems that can be described by linear-in-the-parameters models, and the model has to be built from a very large pool of basis functions or model terms. The main objective is to improve the compactness of the model that is obtained by the forward stepwise methods, while retaining the computational efficiency. The proposed algorithm first generates an initial model using a forward stepwise procedure. The significance of each selected term is then reviewed at the second stage and all insignificant ones are replaced, resulting in an optimised compact model with significantly improved performance. The main contribution of this paper is that these two stages are performed within a well-defined regression context, leading to significantly reduced computational complexity. The efficiency of the algorithm is confirmed by the computational complexity analysis, and its effectiveness is demonstrated by the simulation results.

Supervised Aggregative Feature Extraction for Big Data Time Series Regression

In many applications, and especially those where batch processes are involved, a target scalar output of interest is often dependent on one or more time series of data. With the exponential growth in data logging in modern industries such time series are increasingly available for statistical modeling in soft sensing applications. In order to exploit time series data for predictive modelling, it is necessary to summarise the information they contain as a set of features to use as model regressors. Typically this is done in an unsupervised fashion using simple techniques such as computing statistical moments, principal components or wavelet decompositions, often leading to significant information loss and hence suboptimal predictive models. In this paper, a functional learning paradigm is exploited in a supervised fashion to derive continuous, smooth estimates of time series data (yielding aggregated local information), while simultaneously estimating a continuous shape function yielding optimal predictions. The proposed Supervised Aggregative Feature Extraction (SAFE) methodology can be extended to support nonlinear predictive models by embedding the functional learning framework in a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces setting. SAFE has a number of attractive features including closed form solution and the ability to explicitly incorporate first and second order derivative information. Using simulation studies and a practical semiconductor manufacturing case study we highlight the strengths of the new methodology with respect to standard unsupervised feature extraction approaches.

Modelling the nonlinear behaviour and fracture process of AS4/PEKK thermoplastic composite under shear loading

The accurate determination of non-linear shear behaviour and fracture toughness of continuous carbon-fibre/polymer composites remains a considerable challenge. These measurements are often necessary to generate material parameters for advanced computational damage models. In particular, there is a dearth of detailed shear fracture toughness characterisation for thermoplastic composites which are increasingly generating renewed interest within the aerospace and automotive sectors. In this work, carbon fibre (AS4)/ thermoplastic Polyetherketoneketone (PEKK) composite V-notched cross-ply specimens were manufactured to investigate their non-linear response under pure shear loading. Both monotonic and cyclic loading were applied to study the shear modulus degradation and progressive failure. For the first time in the reported literature, we use the essential work of fracture approach to measure the shear fracture toughness of continuous fibre reinforced composite laminates. Excellent geometric similarity in the load-displacement curves was observed for ligament-scaled specimens. The laminate fracture toughness was determined by linear regression, of the specific work of fracture values, to zero ligament thickness, and verified with computational models. The matrix intralaminar fracture toughness (ply level fracture toughness), associated with shear loading was determined by the area method. This paper also details the numerical implementation of a new three-dimensional phenomenological model for carbon fibre thermoplastic composites using the measured values, which is able to accurately represent the full non-linear mechanical response and fracture process. The constitutive model includes a new non-linear shear profile, shear modulus degradation and load reversal. It is combined with a smeared crack model for representing ply-level damage initiation and propagation. The model is shown to accurately predict the constitutive response in terms of permanent plastic strain, degraded modulus as well as load reversal. Predictions are also shown to compare favourably with the evolution of damage leading to final fracture.