Comparative Analysis of Evolving Software Systems Using the Gini Coefficient

Software metrics offer us the promise of distilling useful information from vast amounts of software in order to track development progress, to gain insights into the nature of the software, and to identify potential problems. Unfortunately, however, many software metrics exhibit highly skewed, non-Gaussian distributions. As a consequence, usual ways of interpreting these metrics --- for example, in terms of "average" values --- can be highly misleading. Many metrics, it turns out, are distributed like wealth --- with high concentrations of values in selected locations. We propose to analyze software metrics using the Gini coefficient, a higher-order statistic widely used in economics to study the distribution of wealth. Our approach allows us not only to observe changes in software systems efficiently, but also to assess project risks and monitor the development process itself. We apply the Gini coefficient to numerous metrics over a range of software projects, and we show that many metrics not only display remarkably high Gini values, but that these values are remarkably consistent as a project evolves over time.

Constraining storm-scale forecasts of deep convective initiation with surface weather observations

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Successive nonparametric estimation of conditional distributions

Spatial characterization of non-Gaussian attributes in earth sciences and engineering commonly requires the estimation of their conditional distribution. The indicator and probability kriging approaches of current nonparametric geostatistics provide approximations for estimating conditional distributions. They do not, however, provide results similar to those in the cumbersome implementation of simultaneous cokriging of indicators. This paper presents a new formulation termed successive cokriging of indicators that avoids the classic simultaneous solution and related computational problems, while obtaining equivalent results to the impractical simultaneous solution of cokriging of indicators. A successive minimization of the estimation variance of probability estimates is performed, as additional data are successively included into the estimation process. In addition, the approach leads to an efficient nonparametric simulation algorithm for non-Gaussian random functions based on residual probabilities.

Conditional quantum-state engineering using ancillary squeezed-vacuum states

We investigate an optical scheme to conditionally engineer quantum states using a beam splitter, homodyne detection, and a squeezed vacuum as an ancillar state. This scheme is efficient in producing non-Gaussian quantum states such as squeezed single photons and superpositions of coherent states (SCSs). We show that a SCS with well defined parity and high fidelity can be generated from a Fock state of n

Universal quantum computation with continuous-variable cluster states

We describe a generalization of the cluster-state model of quantum computation to continuous-variable systems, along with a proposal for an optical implementation using squeezed-light sources, linear optics, and homodyne detection. For universal quantum computation, a nonlinear element is required. This can be satisfied by adding to the toolbox any single-mode non-Gaussian measurement, while the initial cluster state itself remains Gaussian. Homodyne detection alone suffices to perform an arbitrary multimode Gaussian transformation via the cluster state. We also propose an experiment to demonstrate cluster-based error reduction when implementing Gaussian operations.

Towards a framework for combining stochastic and deterministic descriptions of nonstationary financial time series

We present in this paper ideas to tackle the problem of analysing and forecasting nonstationary time series within the financial domain. Accepting the stochastic nature of the underlying data generator we assume that the evolution of the generator's parameters is restricted on a deterministic manifold. Therefore we propose methods for determining the characteristics of the time-localised distribution. Starting with the assumption of a static normal distribution we refine this hypothesis according to the empirical results obtained with the methods anc conclude with the indication of a dynamic non-Gaussian behaviour with varying dependency for the time series under consideration.

Regularisation of mixture density networks

Mixture Density Networks are a principled method to model conditional probability density functions which are non-Gaussian. This is achieved by modelling the conditional distribution for each pattern with a Gaussian Mixture Model for which the parameters are generated by a neural network. This thesis presents a novel method to introduce regularisation in this context for the special case where the mean and variance of the spherical Gaussian Kernels in the mixtures are fixed to predetermined values. Guidelines for how these parameters can be initialised are given, and it is shown how to apply the evidence framework to mixture density networks to achieve regularisation. This also provides an objective stopping criteria that can replace the `early stopping' methods that have previously been used. If the neural network used is an RBF network with fixed centres this opens up new opportunities for improved initialisation of the network weights, which are exploited to start training relatively close to the optimum. The new method is demonstrated on two data sets. The first is a simple synthetic data set while the second is a real life data set, namely satellite scatterometer data used to infer the wind speed and wind direction near the ocean surface. For both data sets the regularisation method performs well in comparison with earlier published results. Ideas on how the constraint on the kernels may be relaxed to allow fully adaptable kernels are presented.

Conditional distribution modeling for estimating and exploiting uncertainty in control systems

This paper presents a general methodology for estimating and incorporating uncertainty in the controller and forward models for noisy nonlinear control problems. Conditional distribution modeling in a neural network context is used to estimate uncertainty around the prediction of neural network outputs. The developed methodology circumvents the dynamic programming problem by using the predicted neural network uncertainty to localize the possible control solutions to consider. A nonlinear multivariable system with different delays between the input-output pairs is used to demonstrate the successful application of the developed control algorithm. The proposed method is suitable for redundant control systems and allows us to model strongly non Gaussian distributions of control signal as well as processes with hysteresis.

Probability distribution modelling to improve stability in nonlinear MIMO control

We consider the direct adaptive inverse control of nonlinear multivariable systems with different delays between every input-output pair. In direct adaptive inverse control, the inverse mapping is learned from examples of input-output pairs. This makes the obtained controller sub optimal, since the network may have to learn the response of the plant over a larger operational range than necessary. Moreover, in certain applications, the control problem can be redundant, implying that the inverse problem is ill posed. In this paper we propose a new algorithm which allows estimating and exploiting uncertainty in nonlinear multivariable control systems. This approach allows us to model strongly non-Gaussian distribution of control signals as well as processes with hysteresis. The proposed algorithm circumvents the dynamic programming problem by using the predicted neural network uncertainty to localise the possible control solutions to consider.

Regularisation of mixture density networks

Mixture Density Networks are a principled method to model conditional probability density functions which are non-Gaussian. This is achieved by modelling the conditional distribution for each pattern with a Gaussian Mixture Model for which the parameters are generated by a neural network. This thesis presents a novel method to introduce regularisation in this context for the special case where the mean and variance of the spherical Gaussian Kernels in the mixtures are fixed to predetermined values. Guidelines for how these parameters can be initialised are given, and it is shown how to apply the evidence framework to mixture density networks to achieve regularisation. This also provides an objective stopping criteria that can replace the `early stopping' methods that have previously been used. If the neural network used is an RBF network with fixed centres this opens up new opportunities for improved initialisation of the network weights, which are exploited to start training relatively close to the optimum. The new method is demonstrated on two data sets. The first is a simple synthetic data set while the second is a real life data set, namely satellite scatterometer data used to infer the wind speed and wind direction near the ocean surface. For both data sets the regularisation method performs well in comparison with earlier published results. Ideas on how the constraint on the kernels may be relaxed to allow fully adaptable kernels are presented.

Template model for blur coding: the role of early nonlinearity in edge segmentation

We describe a template model for perception of edge blur and identify a crucial early nonlinearity in this process. The main principle is to spatially filter the edge image to produce a 'signature', and then find which of a set of templates best fits that signature. Psychophysical blur-matching data strongly support the use of a second-derivative signature, coupled to Gaussian first-derivative templates. The spatial scale of the best-fitting template signals the edge blur. This model predicts blur-matching data accurately for a wide variety of Gaussian and non-Gaussian edges, but it suffers a bias when edges of opposite sign come close together in sine-wave gratings and other periodic images. This anomaly suggests a second general principle: the region of an image that 'belongs' to a given edge should have a consistent sign or direction of luminance gradient. Segmentation of the gradient profile into regions of common sign is achieved by implementing the second-derivative 'signature' operator as two first-derivative operators separated by a half-wave rectifier. This multiscale system of nonlinear filters predicts perceived blur accurately for periodic and aperiodic waveforms. We also outline its extension to 2-D images and infer the 2-D shape of the receptive fields.

Seeing edge blur: receptive fields as multiscale neural templates

Edge blur is an important perceptual cue, but how does the visual system encode the degree of blur at edges? Blur could be measured by the width of the luminance gradient profile, peak ^ trough separation in the 2nd derivative profile, or the ratio of 1st-to-3rd derivative magnitudes. In template models, the system would store a set of templates of different sizes and find which one best fits the `signature' of the edge. The signature could be the luminance profile itself, or one of its spatial derivatives. I tested these possibilities in blur-matching experiments. In a 2AFC staircase procedure, observers adjusted the blur of Gaussian edges (30% contrast) to match the perceived blur of various non-Gaussian test edges. In experiment 1, test stimuli were mixtures of 2 Gaussian edges (eg 10 and 30 min of arc blur) at the same location, while in experiment 2, test stimuli were formed from a blurred edge sharpened to different extents by a compressive transformation. Predictions of the various models were tested against the blur-matching data, but only one model was strongly supported. This was the template model, in which the input signature is the 2nd derivative of the luminance profile, and the templates are applied to this signature at the zero-crossings. The templates are Gaussian derivative receptive fields that covary in width and length to form a self-similar set (ie same shape, different sizes). This naturally predicts that shorter edges should look sharper. As edge length gets shorter, responses of longer templates drop more than shorter ones, and so the response distribution shifts towards shorter (smaller) templates, signalling a sharper edge. The data confirmed this, including the scale-invariance implied by self-similarity, and a good fit was obtained from templates with a length-to-width ratio of about 1. The simultaneous analysis of edge blur and edge location may offer a new solution to the multiscale problem in edge detection.

Sub-critical regime of femtosecond inscription

We apply well known nonlinear diffraction theory governing focusing of a powerful light beam of arbitrary shape in medium with Kerr nonlinearity to the analysis of femtosecond (fs) laser processing of dielectric in sub-critical (input power less than the critical power of selffocusing) regime. Simple analytical expressions are derived for the input beam power and spatial focusing parameter (numerical aperture) that are required for achieving an inscription threshold. Application of non-Gaussian laser beams for better controlled fs inscription at higher powers is also discussed. © 2007 Optical Society of America.

Fluctuation-induced traffic congestion in heterogeneous networks

In studies of complex heterogeneous networks, particularly of the Internet, significant attention was paid to analyzing network failures caused by hardware faults or overload, where the network reaction was modeled as rerouting of traffic away from failed or congested elements. Here we model another type of the network reaction to congestion - a sharp reduction of the input traffic rate through congested routes which occurs on much shorter time scales. We consider the onset of congestion in the Internet where local mismatch between demand and capacity results in traffic losses and show that it can be described as a phase transition characterized by strong non-Gaussian loss fluctuations at a mesoscopic time scale. The fluctuations, caused by noise in input traffic, are exacerbated by the heterogeneous nature of the network manifested in a scale-free load distribution. They result in the network strongly overreacting to the first signs of congestion by significantly reducing input traffic along the communication paths where congestion is utterly negligible. © Copyright EPLA, 2012.

Signal processing for molecular and cellular biological physics:an emerging field

Recent advances in our ability to watch the molecular and cellular processes of life in action-such as atomic force microscopy, optical tweezers and Forster fluorescence resonance energy transfer-raise challenges for digital signal processing (DSP) of the resulting experimental data. This article explores the unique properties of such biophysical time series that set them apart from other signals, such as the prevalence of abrupt jumps and steps, multi-modal distributions and autocorrelated noise. It exposes the problems with classical linear DSP algorithms applied to this kind of data, and describes new nonlinear and non-Gaussian algorithms that are able to extract information that is of direct relevance to biological physicists. It is argued that these new methods applied in this context typify the nascent field of biophysical DSP. Practical experimental examples are supplied.