Environmental factors and uncertainty in fisheries management in the northern Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is a geologically young, large brackish water basin, and few of the species living there have fully adapted to its special conditions. Many of the species live on the edge of their distribution range in terms of one or more environmental variables such as salinity or temperature. Environmental fluctuations are know to cause fluctuations in populations abundance, and this effect is especially strong near the edges of the distribution range, where even small changes in an environmental variable can be critical to the success of a species. This thesis examines which environmental factors are the most important in relation to the success of various commercially exploited fish species in the northern Baltic Sea. It also examines the uncertainties related to fish stocks current and potential status as well as to their relationship with their environment. The aim is to quantify the uncertainties related to fisheries and environmental management, to find potential management strategies that can be used to reduce uncertainty in management results and to develop methodology related to uncertainty estimation in natural resources management. Bayesian statistical methods are utilized due to their ability to treat uncertainty explicitly in all parts of the statistical model. The results show that uncertainty about important parameters of even the most intensively studied fish species such as salmon (Salmo salar L.) and Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras L.) is large. On the other hand, management approaches that reduce uncertainty can be found. These include utilising information about ecological similarity of fish stocks and species, and using management variables that are directly related to stock parameters that can be measured easily and without extrapolations or assumptions.

Conference Report: International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade Conference (IIFET) 2014

The 17th Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade (IIFET) was held in Brisbane in July 2014. IIFET is the principal international association for fisheries economics, and the biennial conference is an opportunity for the best fisheries economists in the world to meet and share their ideas. The conference was organised by CSIRO, QUT, UTAS, University of Adelaide and KG Kailis Ltd. This is the first time the conference has been held in Australia. The conferences covered a wide range of topics of relevance to Australia. These included studies of fishery management systems around the world, identified key issues in aquaculture and marine biodiversity conservation, and provided a forum for new modelling and theoretical approaches to analysing fisheries problems to be presented. The theme of the conference was Towards Ecosystem Based Management of Fisheries: What Role can Economics Play? Several sessions were dedicated to modelling socio-ecological systems, and two keynote speakers were invited to present the latest thinking in the area. In this report, the key features of the conference are outlined.

Multispecies coexistence of trees in tropical forests: spatial signals of topographic niche differentiation increase with environmental heterogeneity

Neutral and niche theories give contrasting explanations for the maintenance of tropical tree species diversity. Both have some empirical support, but methods to disentangle their effects have not yet been developed. We applied a statistical measure of spatial structure to data from 14 large tropical forest plots to test a prediction of niche theory that is incompatible with neutral theory: that species in heterogeneous environments should separate out in space according to their niche preferences. We chose plots across a range of topographic heterogeneity, and tested whether pairwise spatial associations among species were more variable in more heterogeneous sites. We found strong support for this prediction, based on a strong positive relationship between variance in the spatial structure of species pairs and topographic heterogeneity across sites. We interpret this pattern as evidence of pervasive niche differentiation, which increases in importance with increasing environmental heterogeneity.

Modelling the effects of chorus species composition and caller density on acoustic masking interference in multispecies choruses of crickets and katydids

Natural multispecies acoustic choruses such as the dusk chorus of a tropical rain forest consist of simultaneously signalling individuals of different species whose calls travel through a common shared medium before reaching their `intended' receivers. This causes masking interference between signals and impedes signal detection, recognition and localization. The levels of acoustic overlap depend on a number of factors, including call structure, intensity, habitat-dependent signal attenuation and receiver tuning. In addition, acoustic overlaps should also depend on caller density and the species composition of choruses, including relative and absolute abundance of the different calling species. In this study, we used simulations to examine the effects of chorus species relative abundance and caller density on the levels of effective heterospecific acoustic overlap in multispecies choruses composed of the calls of five species of crickets and katydids that share the understorey of a rain forest in southern India. We found that on average species-even choruses resulted in higher levels of effective heterospecific acoustic overlap than choruses with strong dominance structures. This effect was found consistently across dominance levels ranging from 0.4 to 0.8 for larger choruses of forty individuals. For smaller choruses of twenty individuals, the effect was seen consistently for dominance levels of 0.6 and 0.8 but not 0.4. Effective acoustic overlap (EAO) increased with caller density but the manner and extent of increase depended both on the species' call structure and the acoustic context provided by the composition scenario. The Phaloria sp. experienced very low levels of EAO and was highly buffered to changes in acoustic context whereas other species experienced high FAO across contexts or were poorly buffered. These differences were not simply predictable from call structures. These simulation-based findings may have important implications for acoustic biodiversity monitoring and for the study of acoustic masking interference in natural environments. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An inhomogeneous multispecies TASEP on a ring

We reinterpret and generalize conjectures of Lam and Williams as statements about the stationary distribution of a multispecies exclusion process on the ring. The central objects in our study are the multiline queues of Ferrari and Martin. We make some progress on some of the conjectures in different directions. First, we prove Lam and Williams' conjectures in two special cases by generalizing the rates of the Ferrari-Martin transitions. Secondly, we define a new process on multiline queues, which have a certain minimality property. This gives another proof for one of the special cases; namely arbitrary jump rates for three species. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Endogenous fisheries management in a stochastic model: Why do fishery agencies use TAC

The aim of this paper is to explain under which circumstances using TACs as instrument to manage a fishery along with fishing periods may be interesting from a regulatory point of view. In order to do this, the deterministic analysis of Homans and Wilen (1997)and Anderson (2000) is extended to a stochastic scenario where the resource cannot be measured accurately. The resulting endogenous stochastic model is numerically solved for finding the optimal control rules in the Iberian sardine stock. Three relevant conclusions can be highligted from simulations. First, the higher the uncertainty about the state of the stock is, the lower the probability of closing the fishery is. Second, the use of TACs as management instrument in fisheries already regulated with fishing periods leads to: i) An increase of the optimal season length and harvests, especially for medium and high number of licences, ii) An improvement of the biological and economic variables when the size of the fleet is large; and iii) Eliminate the extinction risk for the resource. And third, the regulator would rather select the number of licences and do not restrict the season length.

Why Economists Reject Long-Term Fisheries Management Plans?

Most fisheries agencies conduct biological and economic assessments independently. This independent conduct may lead to situations in which economists reject management plans proposed by biologists. The objective of this study is to show how to find optimal strategies that may satisfy biologists and economists' conditions. In particular we characterize optimal fishing trajectories that maximize the present value of a discounted economic indicator taking into account the age-structure of the population as in stock assessment methodologies. This approach is applied to the Northern Stock of Hake. Our main empirical findings are: i) Optimal policy may be far away from any of the classical scenarios proposed by biologists, ii) The more the future is discounted, the higher the likelihood of finding contradictions among scenarios proposed by biologists and conclusions from economic analysis, iii) Optimal management reduces the risk of the stock falling under precautionary levels, especially if the future is not discounted to much, and iv) Optimal stationary fishing rate may be very different depending on the economic indicator used as reference.

Reference Points and Optimal Management in Stochastic Age-Structured Fisheries Models

The purpose of this article is to characterize dynamic optimal harvesting trajectories that maximize discounted utility assuming an age-structured population model, in the same line as Tahvonen (2009). The main novelty of our study is that uses as an age-structured population model the standard stochastic cohort framework applied in Virtual Population Analysis for fish stock assessment. This allows us to compare optimal harvesting in a discounted economic context with standard reference points used by fisheries agencies for long term management plans (e.g. Fmsy). Our main findings are the following. First, optimal steady state is characterized and sufficient conditions that guarantees its existence and uniqueness for the general case of n cohorts are shown. It is also proved that the optimal steady state coincides with the traditional target Fmsy when the utility function to be maximized is the yield and the discount rate is zero. Second, an algorithm to calculate the optimal path that easily drives the resource to the steady state is developed. And third, the algorithm is applied to the Northern Stock of hake. Results show that management plans based exclusively on traditional reference targets as Fmsy may drive fishery economic results far from the optimal.

The Optimality of the Common Fisheries Policy: the Northern Stock of Hake

We evaluate the management of the Northern Stock of Hake during 1986-2001. A stochastic bioeconomic model is calibrated to match the main features of this fishing ground. We show how catches, biomass stock and profits would have been if the optimal Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) consistent with the target biomass implied by the Fischler’s Recovery Plan had been implemented. The main finding are: i) an optimal CFP would have generated profits of more than 667 millions euros, ii) if side-payments are allowed (implemented by ITQ’s, for example) these profits increase 26%.

The Evaluation of Fisheries Management: A Dynamic Stochastic Approach

In this article, we analyze how to evaluate fishery resource management under “ecological uncertainty”. In this context, an efficient policy consists of applying a different exploitation rule depending on the state of the resource and we could say that the stock is always in transition, jumping from one steady state to another. First, we propose a method for calibrating the growth path of the resource such that observed dynamics of resource and captures are matched. Second, we apply the calibration procedure proposed in two different fishing grounds: the European Anchovy (Division VIII) and the Southern Stock of Hake. Our results show that the role played by uncertainty is essential for the conclusions. For European Anchovy fishery (Division VIII) we find, in contrast with Del Valle et al. (2001), that this is not an overexploited fishing ground. However, we show that the Southern Stock of Hake is in a dangerous situation. In both cases our results are in accordance with ICES advice.

Report of the Study Group on “ Fisheries and Ecosystem Response to Recent Regime Shifts”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. DECADAL-SCALE CLIMATE EVENTS 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Basin-scale Patterns 1.3 Long Time Series in the North Pacific 1.4 Decadal Climate Variability in Ecological Regions of the North Pacific 1.5 Mechanisms 1.6 References 2. COHERENT REGIONAL RESPONSES 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Central North Pacific (CNP) 2.3 California Current System (CCS) 2.4 Gulf of Alaska (GOA) 2.5 Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands 2.6 Western North Pacific (WNP) 2.7 Coherence in Regional Responses to the 1998 Regime Shift 2.8 Climate Indicators for Detecting Regime Shifts 2.9 References 3. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF MARINE RESOURCES 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Response Time of Biota to Regime Shifts 3.3 Response Time of Management to Regime Shifts 3.4 Provision of Stock Assessment Advice 3.5 Decision Rules 3.6 References 4. SUGGESTED LITERATURE 4.1 Climate Regimes 4.2 Impacts on Lower Trophic Levels 4.3 Impacts on Fish and Higher Trophic Levels 4.4 Impacts on Ecosystems and Possible Mechanisms 4.5 Regimes and Fisheries Management APPENDIX 1: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC A1.1 Introduction A1.2 Physical Oceanography A1.3 Lower Trophic Levels A1.4 Invertebrates A1.5 Fishes A1.6 References APPENDIX 2: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT SYSTEM A2.1 Introduction A2.2 Physical Oceanography A2.3 Lower Trophic Levels A2.4 Invertebrates A2.5 Fishes A2.6 References APPENDIX 3: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA A3.1 Introduction A3.2 Physical Oceanography A3.3 Lower Trophic Levels A3.4 Invertebrates A3.5 Fishes A3.6 Higher Trophic Levels A3.7 Coherence in Gulf of Alaska Fish A3.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Recruitment and Survival Rate A3.9 References APPENDIX 4: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS A4.1 Introduction A4.2 Bering Sea Environmental Variables and Physical Oceanography A4.3 Bering Sea Lower Trophic Levels A4.4 Bering Sea Invertebrates A4.5 Bering Sea Fishes A4.6 Bering Sea Higher Trophic Levels A4.7 Coherence in Bering Sea Fish Responses A4.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Bering Fish Recruitment and Survival Rate A4.9 Aleutian Islands A4.10 References APPENDIX 5: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC A5.1 Introduction A5.2 Sea of Okhotsk A5.3 Tsushima Current Region and Kuroshio/Oyashio Current Region A5.4 Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea A5.5 References (168 page document)

Tropical river fisheries valuation: background papers to a global synthesis

This report is a compilation of five regional reviews that document the global status of tropical rivers and inland fisheries in three continents: Latin America, Africa and Asia. It explores the role of ‘valuation’ methods and their contribution to policy-making and river fishery management. From the compilation, the best estimate of the global value of inland fisheries for those three continents is US$ 5.58 billion (gross market value), which is equivalent to 19 percent of the current value of annual fish exports from developing countries (US$ 29 billion) for 2004. The compilation shows that there is a general shortage of information on inland fisheries, especially derived from conventional economic valuation methods, though information from economic impact assessment methods and socio-economic and livelihood analysis methods is more widely available. The status of knowledge about the impact of changes in river management on the value of tropical river fisheries is weak and patchy. Although the impacts of large dams on the hydrology, ecology and livelihood support attributes of tropical rivers are well-recognized, there have been only few valuation studies of these issues. The document highlights the need for further valuation studies of tropical river and inland fisheries in developing countries. It underlines how vital it is for policy-makers and other stakeholders to understand the importance of these natural resources in order to make appropriate decisions concerning their role in development policy and illustrates why capacity building in valuation should become a major priority for agencies concerned with fisheries management and policy-making.

Values of inland fisheries in the Mekong river basin

Asia has the most productive inland fisheries in the world. The fishery sector contributes significantly to the national economies of the region. Inland fisheries also improve food security by providing a source of protein and a livelihood for millions of people in this part of the world, especially the rural poor. The purpose of this report is to provide information on the biological, economic, social and cultural values of river fisheries in the Lower Mekong Basin, and to identify the main impacts of environmental changes on these values. A review of fisheries-related literature, including project reports and gray literature, was undertaken. More than 800 documents were reviewed, and original information was extracted from 270 of them. The analysis identified a large number of localized studies leading to generic conclusions. The report addresses the basin wide issues and studies. It is then organized by nation, namely, the Chinese province of Yunnan, then Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. It first gives an overview of each country’s economic, fisheries and social situation, then details the values documented for river fisheries in each country.

Review of river fisheries valuation in tropical Asia

This study attempts to estimate the economic value of riverine fisheries in tropical Asia and quantify the economic impacts of any changes to the environment that affects rivers and hence fisheries. The value of riverine fisheries has been considered in the following two ways: firstly, through a compilation and summary of the results of existing studies on this topic; secondly, by estimating the direct use value of riverine and floodplain fishing by country using quantities and freshwater fish prices derived from various sources. Furthermore, a review of the characteristics of the fisheries is presented. These fisheries have been shown to be valuable (i.e., economically or socially important) in at least two specific ways: as a generator of commercially marketable output, and as a source of income and employment in relatively impoverished communities.

The valuation of riparian fisheries in Southern and Eastern Africa

This paper reviews the published and gray literature concerning economic valuations of river fisheries in eastern and southern Africa, extracting the best available information on their direct economic values and on the impacts of changes in water management on this value. It then assesses the methods used and makes recommendations regarding approaches to be used in future. The review concentrates on rivers with their associated floodplains and major deltas. The values and issues associated with estuaries and lakes are not considered.