Introducción de criterios de sostenibilidad en la elección de emplazamientos industriales mediante modelos multicriterio

(SPA) La elección de localizaciones para la implantación de actividades industriales es un problema complejo, donde a los criterios de coste y eficiencia se han ido añadiendo otros nuevos relativos tanto al impacto en el medio ambiente como a la imagen de la empresa reflejada en la Responsabilidad Social Empresarial. Los criterios medioambientales han ido adquiriendo gran relevancia en la decisión final, hasta convertirse, gracias a la obligación de someter los proyectos a evaluación ambiental, en elementos clave en la decisión final. Por ello, resulta relativamente frecuente que los promotores consulten previamente con la Administración sobre la viabilidad de sus proyectos antes de iniciar un dilatado procedimiento administrativo. En este trabajo se plantea la utilización de indicadores de sostenibilidad y su aplicación, a través de un modelo de decisiones multicriterio, para la ordenación de las distintas opciones de ubicación inicialmente consideradas, de tal forma que se conviertan en instrumento de tanteo y ayuda en la toma de estas decisiones. Para mostrar su utilidad se propone la utilización de la herramienta de apoyo basada en la metodología PROMETHEE y su aplicación en la ordenación de cinco emplazamientos alternativos para la instalación de una cementera en la Comunidad de Madrid según criterios de sostenibilidad. (ENG) The choice of locations for the implementation of industrial activities is a complex problem where the cost and efficiency criteria have been adding new ones relating to the environment impact and the company’s corporate image reflected in Corporate Social Responsability. The environmental criteria have been getting big importance in the final decision, to become key elements in the final decision, due to the duty of submit of environmental assessment projects. Therefore, promoters, quite often, ask previously to the Administration about the viability of their projects before starting a lengthy administrative procedure. This paper proposes the use of sustainability indicators and their application through a multi-criteria decision model for managing the establishment options initially considered, so that they become an help instrument of estimation in order to making these decisions. To show its usefulness we propose the use of the support tool for decision making based on the PROMETHEE methodology and its application in the management of 5 alternative sites for the installation of a cement factory in the Community of Madrid under sustainability criteria.

Modelo de otimização multiobjetivo aplicado ao projeto de concepção de submarinos convencionais.

Este trabalho apresenta um modelo de otimização multiobjetivo aplicado ao projeto de concepção de submarinos convencionais (i.e. de propulsão dieselelétrica). Um modelo de síntese que permite a estimativa de pesos, volume, velocidade, carga elétrica e outras características de interesse para a o projeto de concepção é formulado. O modelo de síntese é integrado a um modelo de otimização multiobjetivo baseado em algoritmos genéticos (especificamente, o algoritmo NSGA II). A otimização multiobjetivo consiste na maximização da efetividade militar do submarino e na minimização de seu custo. A efetividade militar do submarino é representada por uma Medida Geral de Efetividade (OMOE) estabelecida por meio do Processo Analítico Hierárquico (AHP). O Custo Básico de Construção (BCC) do submarino é estimado a partir dos seus grupos de peso. Ao fim do processo de otimização, é estabelecida uma Fronteira de Pareto composta por soluções não dominadas. Uma dessas soluções é selecionada para refinamento preliminar e os resultados são discutidos. Subsidiariamente, esta dissertação apresenta discussão sucinta sobre aspectos históricos e operativos relacionados a submarinos, bem como sobre sua metodologia de projeto. Alguns conceitos de Arquitetura Naval, aplicada ao projeto dessas embarcações, são também abordados.

Will improved access to capital dampen the need for more agricultural land? A CGE analysis of agricultural capital markets and world-wide biofuel policies. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 48, May 2013

This paper analyses the consequences of enhanced biofuel production in regions and countries of the world that have announced plans to implement or expand on biofuel policies. The analysis considers biofuel policies implemented as binding blending targets for transportation fuels. The chosen quantitative modelling approach is two-fold: it combines the analysis of biofuel policies in a multi-sectoral economic model (MAGNET) with systematic variation of the functioning of capital and labour markets. This paper adds to existing research by considering biofuel policies in the EU, the US and various other countries with considerable agricultural production and trade, such as Brazil, India and China. Moreover, the application multi-sectoral modelling system with different assumptions on the mobility of factor markets allows for the observation of changes in economic indicators under different conditions of how factor markets work. Systematic variation of factor mobility indicates that the ‘burden’ of global biofuel policies is not equally distributed across different factors within agricultural production. Agricultural land, as the pre-dominant and sector-specific factor, is, regardless of different degrees of inter-sectoral or intra-sectoral factor mobility, the most important factor limiting the expansion of agricultural production. More capital and higher employment in agriculture will ease the pressure on additional land use – but only partly. To expand agricultural production at global scale requires both land and mobile factors adapted to increase total factor productivity in agriculture in the most efficient way.

Treatment-seeking behavior and delay in children with severe malaria in Uganda: results of a Markov analysis

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Why Scotland needs more than just a new migration policy

The Scottish Executive has adopted a policy to combat Scotland's declining population by encouraging inward migration. Using a multi-state population model this paper presents nine long-term population scenarios for Scotland using three net international migration levels and three fertility paths. The results show inward migration can slow population decline but makes little difference to population ageing. Without a higher fertility rate Scotland's population will become demographically unsustainable. Our simulations show that a higher fertility rate substantially reduces the future ageing.

Opposite effects of androgen receptor CAG repeat length on increased risk of left-handedness in males and females

Prenatal exposure to testosterone has been hypothesised to effect lateralization by influencing cell death in the foetal brain. Testosterone binds to the X chromosome linked androgen receptor, which contains a polymorphic polyglutamine CAG repeat, the length of which is positively correlated with testosterone levels in males, and negatively correlated in females. To determine whether the length of the androgen receptor mediates the effects of testosterone on laterality, we examined the association between the number of CAG repeats in the androgen receptor gene and handedness for writing. Association was tested by adding regression terms for the length of the androgen receptor alleles to a multi-factorial-threshold model of liability to left-handedness. In females we found the risk of left-handedness was greater in those with a greater number of repeats (p=0.04), this finding was replicated in a second independent sample of female twins (p=0.014). The length of the androgen receptor explained 6% of the total variance and 24% of the genetic variance in females. In males the risk of left-handedness was greater in those with fewer repeats (p=0.02), with variation in receptor length explaining 10% of the total variance and 24% of the genetic variance. Thus, consistent with Witelson's theory of testosterone action, in all three samples the likelihood of left handedness increased in those individuals with variants of the androgen receptor associated with lower testosterone levels.

Numerical simulation of magnetite segregation in a dense medium cyclone

Numerical simulations of turbulent driven flow in a dense medium cyclone with magnetite medium have been conducted using Fluent. The predicted air core shape and diameter were found to be close to the experimental results measured by gamma ray tomography. It is possible that the Large eddy simulation (LES) turbulence model with Mixture multi-phase model can be used to predict the air/slurry interface accurately although the LES may need a finer grid. Multi-phase simulations (air/water/medium) are showing appropriate medium segregation effects but are over-predicting the level of segregation compared to that measured by gamma-ray tomography in particular with over prediction of medium concentrations near the wall. Further, investigated the accurate prediction of axial segregation of magnetite using the LES turbulence model together with the multi-phase mixture model and viscosity corrections according to the feed particle loading factor. Addition of lift forces and viscosity correction improved the predictions especially near the wall. Predicted density profiles are very close to gamma ray tomography data showing a clear density drop near the wall. The effect of size distribution of the magnetite has been fully studied. It is interesting to note that the ultra-fine magnetite sizes (i.e. 2 and 7 mu m) are distributed uniformly throughout the cyclone. As the size of magnetite increases, more segregation of magnetite occurs close to the wall. The cut-density (d(50)) of the magnetite segregation is 32 gm, which is expected with superfine magnetite feed size distribution. At higher feed densities the agreement between the [Dungilson, 1999; Wood, J.C., 1990. A performance model for coal-washing dense medium cyclones, Ph.D. Thesis, JKMRC, University of Queensland] correlations and the CFD are reasonably good, but the overflow density is lower than the model predictions. It is believed that the excessive underflow volumetric flow rates are responsible for under prediction of the overflow density. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Response-based segmentation using Finite Mixture Partial Least Squares: theoretical foundations and an application to American Customer Satisfaction Index Data

When applying multivariate analysis techniques in information systems and social science disciplines, such as management information systems (MIS) and marketing, the assumption that the empirical data originate from a single homogeneous population is often unrealistic. When applying a causal modeling approach, such as partial least squares (PLS) path modeling, segmentation is a key issue in coping with the problem of heterogeneity in estimated cause-and-effect relationships. This chapter presents a new PLS path modeling approach which classifies units on the basis of the heterogeneity of the estimates in the inner model. If unobserved heterogeneity significantly affects the estimated path model relationships on the aggregate data level, the methodology will allow homogenous groups of observations to be created that exhibit distinctive path model estimates. The approach will, thus, provide differentiated analytical outcomes that permit more precise interpretations of each segment formed. An application on a large data set in an example of the American customer satisfaction index (ACSI) substantiates the methodology’s effectiveness in evaluating PLS path modeling results.

Job satisfaction and teamwork:The role of supervisor support

The link between teamwork and job satisfaction was investigated in a sample of 48 manufacturing companies comprising 4708 employees. Two separate research questions were addressed. First, it was proposed that supervisor support would be a weaker source of job satisfaction in companies with higher levels of teamworking. Multilevel analysis indicated that the extent of teamwork at the company level of analysis moderated the relationship between individual perceptions of supervisor support and job satisfaction. Second, it was proposed that the extent of teamwork would be positively related to perceptions of job autonomy but negatively related to perceptions of supervisor support. Further, it was proposed that the link between teamwork and job autonomy would be explained by job enrichment practices associated with teamwork. Analyses of aggregated company data supported these propositions and provided evidence for a complex mediational path between teamwork and job satisfaction. Implications for implementing teamwork in organizations are discussed. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effect of mobility on violence in a bi-communal population

We develop a multi-agent based model to simulate a population which comprises of two ethnic groups and a peacekeeping force. We investigate the effects of different strategies for civilian movement to the resulting violence in this bi-communal population. Specifically, we compare and contrast random and race-based migration strategies. Race-based migration leads the formation of clusters. Previous work in this area has shown that same-race clustering instigates violent behavior in otherwise passive segments of the population. Our findings confirm this. Furthermore, we show that in settings where only one of the two races adopts race-based migration it is a winning strategy especially in violently predisposed populations. On the other hand, in relatively peaceful settings clustering is a restricting factor which causes the race that adopts it to drift into annihilation. Finally, we show that when race-based migration is adopted as a strategy by both ethnic groups it results in peaceful co-existence even in the most violently predisposed populations.

Environmental and nature conservation : a facet study of concern for the quality of the natural environment

A multi-variate descriptive model of environmental and nature conservation attitudes and values is proposed and empirically supported. A mapping sentence is developed out of analysis of data from a series of Repertory Grid interviews addressing conservation employees' attitudes towards their profession's activities. The research is carried out within the meta-theoretical framework of Facet Theory. A mapping sentence is developed consisting of 9 facets. From the mapping sentence 3 questionnaires were constructed viewing the selective orientations towards environmental concern. A mapping sentence and facet model is developed for each study. Once the internal structure of this model had been established using Similarity Structure Analysis, the elements of the facets are subjected to Partial Order Scalogram Analysis with base coordinates. A questionnaire was statistically analysed to assess the relationship between facet elements and 4 measures of attitudes towards, and involvement with, conservation. This enabled the comparison of the relative strengths of attitudes associated with each facet element and each measure of conservation attitude. In general, the relationship between the social value of conservation and involvement pledges to conservation were monotonic; perceived importance of a conservation issue appearing predictive of personal involvement. Furthermore, the elements of the life area and scale facets were differentially related to attitude measures. The multi-variate descriptive model of environmental conservation values and attitudes is discussed in relation to its implications for psychological research into environmental concern and for environmental and nature conservation.

Ranking efficient decision-making units in data envelopment analysis using fuzzy concept

This paper introduces a new mathematical method for improving the discrimination power of data envelopment analysis and to completely rank the efficient decision-making units (DMUs). Fuzzy concept is utilised. For this purpose, first all DMUs are evaluated with the CCR model. Thereafter, the resulted weights for each output are considered as fuzzy sets and are then converted to fuzzy numbers. The introduced model is a multi-objective linear model, endpoints of which are the highest and lowest of the weighted values. An added advantage of the model is its ability to handle the infeasibility situation sometimes faced by previously introduced models.

The effect of social influence and curfews on civil violence

We investigate the policies of (1) restricting social influence and (2) imposing curfews upon interacting citizens in a community. We compare and contrast their effects on the social order and the emerging levels of civil violence. Influence models have been used in the past in the context of decision making in a variety of application domains. The policy of curfews has been utilised with the aim of curbing social violence but little research has been done on its effectiveness. We develop a multi-agent-based model that is used to simulate a community of citizens and the police force that guards it. We find that restricting social influence does indeed pacify rebellious societies, but has the opposite effect on peaceful ones. On the other hand, our simple model indicates that restricting mobility through curfews has a pacifying effect across all types of society.

The effects of perceived business uncertainty, external consultants and risk management on organisational outcomes

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relations between perceived business uncertainty (PBU), use of external risk management (RM) consultants, formalisation of RM, magnitude of RM methods and perceived organisational outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper is based on a questionnaire survey of members of the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants in the UK. Using AMOS 17.0, the paper tests the strength of the direct and indirect effects among the variables and explores the fit of the overall path model. Findings: The results indicate significant and positive associations exist between the extent of PBU and the level ofRMformalisation, as well as between the level ofRMformalisation and the magnitude of RMmethods adopted. The use of externalRMconsultants is also found to have a significant and positive impact on the magnitude of RM methods adopted. Finally, both the extent of RM formalisation and the magnitude of RM methods adopted are seen to be significantly associated with overall improvement in organisational outcomes. Research limitations/implications: The study uses perceptual measures of the level of business uncertainty, usage of RM and organisational outcomes. Further, the respondents are members of a management accounting professional body and the views of other managers, such as risk managers, who are also important to the governance process are not incorporated. Originality/value: This study provides empirical evidence on the impact ofRMdesign and usage on improvements in organisational outcomes. It contributes to the RM literature where empirical research is needed in order to be comparable with the traditional management control system literature.

Psychosoziale Merkmale der Arbeit, Überforderungserleben und Depressivität

Die vorliegende Studie untersuchte die im Job-Demand-Control-Support-Modell und Effort-Reward-Imbalance-Modell beschriebenen Tätigkeitsmerkmale in Bezug auf Depressivität in einer Stichprobe von 265 Erwerbstätigen. Anhand konfirmatorischer Faktorenanalysen wurden Gemeinsamkeiten und Unterschiede beider Modelle geprüft. Anschließend wurde die Bedeutung der nachweisbaren Tätigkeitsmerkmale für die Vorhersage von Depressivität getestet und untersucht, inwieweit die Effekte durch Überforderungserleben mediiert werden. Die Analysen zeigten, dass die Modelle sowohl gemeinsame (Arbeitsintensität bzw. berufliche Anforderungen) als auch distinkte Arbeitsmerkmale (Tätigkeitsspielraum, Arbeitsplatzsicherheit, beruflicher Status, soziale Anerkennung) erfassen. Hohe Arbeitsintensität, geringe Arbeitsplatzsicherheit und fehlende soziale Anerkennung standen in signifikantem Zusammenhang mit Depressivität. Anders als erwartet war der berufliche Status positiv mit Depressivität assoziiert, während für den Tätigkeitsspielraum keine signifikanten Effekte nachweisbar waren. Das Pfadmodell bestätigte sowohl direkte als auch durch Überforderungserleben vermittelte Zusammenhänge zwischen den Tätigkeitsmerkmalen und Depressivität (39 % Varianzaufklärung). Die Ergebnisse bieten eine Grundlage für die Identifizierung potenzieller Risikofaktoren für das Auftreten depressiver Symptome am Arbeitsplatz. This study examined the job characteristics in the Job-Demand-Control-Support Model and in the Effort-Reward Imbalance Model with regard to depression in a sample of 265 employees. First, we tested by means of confirmatory factor analysis similarities and differences of the two models. Secondly, job characteristics were introduced as predictors in a path model to test their relation with depression. Furthermore, we examined whether the associations were mediated by the experience of excessive demands. Our analyses showed the demand/effort component to be one common factor, while decision latitude and reward (subdivided into the three facets of job security, social recognition, and status-related reward) remained distinctive components. Employees with high job demands/effort, low job security, low social recognition, but high status-related rewards reported higher depression scores. Unexpectedly, status-related rewards were positively associated with depression, while we found no significant effects for decision latitude. The path models confirmed direct as well as mediation effects (through experienced excessive demands) between job characteristics and depression (39 % explained variance in depression). Our results could be useful to identify possible job-related risk factors for depression.