Age transition of tuberculosis incidence and mortality in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: Before the Aids pandemic, demographic transition and control programs prompted a shift in the age of incidence of tuberculosis from adults to older people in many countries. The objective of the study is to evaluate this transition in Brazil. METHODS: Tuberculosis incidence and mortality data from the Ministry of Health and population data from the Brazilian Bureau of Statistics were used to calculate age-specific incidence and mortality rates and medians. RESULTS: Among reported cases, the proportion of older people increased from 10.5% to 12% and the median age from 38 to 41 years between the period of 1986 and 1996. The smallest decrease in the incidence rate occurred in the 30--49 and 60+ age groups. The median age of death increased from 53 to 55 years between 1980 and 1996. The general decline in mortality rates from 1986 to 1991 became less evident in the 30+ age group during the period of 1991 to 1996. A direct correlation between age and mortality rates was observed. The largest proportion of bacteriologically unconfirmed cases occurred in older individuals. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of tuberculosis has begun to shift to the older population. This shift results from the decline in the annual risk of infection as well as the demographic transition. An increase in reactivation tuberculosis in older people is expected, since this population will grow from 5% to 14% of the Brazilian population over the next 50 years. A progressive reduction in HIV-related cases in adults will most likely occur. The difficulty in diagnosing tuberculosis in old age leads to increased mortality.

Narrowing inequalities in infant mortality in Southern Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To determine the trends of infant mortality from 1995 to 1999 according to a geographic area-based measure of maternal education in Porto Alegre, Brazil. METHODS: A registry-based study was carried out and a municipal database created in 1994 was used. All live births (n=119,170) and infant deaths (n=1,934) were considered. Five different geographic areas were defined according to quintiles of the percentage of low maternal educational level (<6 years of schooling): high, medium high, medium, medium low, and low. The chi-square test for trend was used to compare rates between years. Incidence rate ratio was calculated using Poisson regression to identify excess infant mortality in poorer areas compared to higher schooling areas. RESULTS: The infant mortality rate (IMR) decreased steadily from 18.38 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1995 to 12.21 in 1999 (chi-square for trend p<0.001). Both neonatal and post-neonatal mortality rates decreased although the drop seemed to be steeper for the post-neonatal component. The higher decline was seen in poorer areas. CONCLUSION: Inequalities in IMR seem to have decreased due to a steeper reduction in both neonatal and post-neonatal components of infant mortality in lower maternal schooling area.

Physical Stress Echocardiography: Prediction of Mortality and Cardiac Events in Patients with Exercise Test showing Ischemia

Background: Studies have demonstrated the diagnostic accuracy and prognostic value of physical stress echocardiography in coronary artery disease. However, the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia is limited. Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of physical stress echocardiography in the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort in which 866 consecutive patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia, and who underwent physical stress echocardiography were studied. Patients were divided into two groups: with physical stress echocardiography negative (G1) or positive (G2) for myocardial ischemia. The endpoints analyzed were all-cause mortality and major cardiac events, defined as cardiac death and non-fatal acute myocardial infarction. Results: G2 comprised 205 patients (23.7%). During the mean 85.6 ± 15.0-month follow-up, there were 26 deaths, of which six were cardiac deaths, and 25 non-fatal myocardial infarction cases. The independent predictors of mortality were: age, diabetes mellitus, and positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.69; 95% confidence interval: 1.20 - 6.01; p = 0.016). The independent predictors of major cardiac events were: age, previous coronary artery disease, positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.75; 95% confidence interval: 1.15 - 6.53; p = 0.022) and absence of a 10% increase in ejection fraction. All-cause mortality and the incidence of major cardiac events were significantly higher in G2 (p < 0. 001 and p = 0.001, respectively). Conclusion: Physical stress echocardiography provides additional prognostic information in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia.

Disseminated M. avium complex infection in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: declining incidence, improved prognosis and discontinuation of maintenance therapy.

Introduction of potent antiretroviral combination therapy (ART) has reduced overall morbidity and mortality amongst HIV-infected adults. Some prophylactic regimes against opportunistic infections can be discontinued in patients under successful ART. (1) The influence of the availability of ART on incidence and mortality of disseminated M. avium Complex infection (MAC). (2) The safety of discontinuation of maintenance therapy against MAC in patients on ART. The Swiss HIV-Cohort Study, a prospective multicentre study of HIV-infected adults. Patients with a nadir CD4 count below 50 cells/mm3 were considered at risk for MAC and contributed to total follow-up time for calculating the incidence. Survival analysis was performed by using Kaplan Meier and Cox proportional hazards methods. Safety of discontinuation of maintenance therapy was evaluated by review of the medical notes. 398 patients were diagnosed with MAC from 1990 to 1999. 350 had a previous CD4 count below 50 cells/mm3. A total of 3208 patients had a nadir CD4 count of less than 50 cells/mm3 during the study period and contributed to a total follow-up of 6004 person-years. The incidence over the whole study period was 5.8 events per 100 person-years. In the time period of available ART the incidence of MAC was significantly reduced (1.4 versus 8.8 events per 100 person-years, p < 0.001). Being diagnosed after 1995 was the most powerful predictor of better survival (adjusted hazard ratio for death: 0.27; p < 0.001). None of 24 patients discontinuing maintenance therapy while on ART experienced recurrence of MAC during a total follow-up of 56.6 person-years (upper 95% confidence limit 5.3 per 100 person-years). Introducing ART has markedly reduced the risk of MAC for HIV-infected individuals with a history of very low CD4 counts. Survival after diagnosis of MAC has improved after ART became available. In patients responding to ART, discontinuation of maintenance therapy against M. avium may be safe.

Latitude gradients in melanoma incidence and mortality in the non-Maori population of New Zealand

The variation with latitude of incidence and mortality for cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) in the non-Maori population of New Zealand was assessed. For those aged 20 to 74 years, the effects of age, time period, birth-cohort, gender, and region (latitude), and some interactions between them were evaluated by log-linear regression methods. Increasing age-standardized incidence and mortality rates with increasing proximity to the equator were found for men and women. These latitude gradients were greater for males than females. The relative risk of melanoma in the most southern part of New Zealand (latitude 44 degrees S) compared with the most northern region (latitude 36 degrees S) was 0.63 (95 percent confidence interval [CI] = 0.60-0.67) for incidence and 0.76 (CI = 0.68-0.86) for mortality, both genders combined. The mean percentage change in CMM rates per degree of latitude for males was greater than those reported in other published studies. Differences between men and women in melanoma risk with latitude suggest that regional sun-behavior patterns or other risk factors may contribute to the latitude gradient observed.

Municipal distribution of bladder cancer mortality in Spain: Possible role of mining and industry

BACKGROUND Spain shows the highest bladder cancer incidence rates in men among European countries. The most important risk factors are tobacco smoking and occupational exposure to a range of different chemical substances, such as aromatic amines. METHODS This paper describes the municipal distribution of bladder cancer mortality and attempts to "adjust" this spatial pattern for the prevalence of smokers, using the autoregressive spatial model proposed by Besag, York and Molliè, with relative risk of lung cancer mortality as a surrogate. RESULTS It has been possible to compile and ascertain the posterior distribution of relative risk for bladder cancer adjusted for lung cancer mortality, on the basis of a single Bayesian spatial model covering all of Spain's 8077 towns. Maps were plotted depicting smoothed relative risk (RR) estimates, and the distribution of the posterior probability of RR>1 by sex. Towns that registered the highest relative risks for both sexes were mostly located in the Provinces of Cadiz, Seville, Huelva, Barcelona and Almería. The highest-risk area in Barcelona Province corresponded to very specific municipal areas in the Bages district, e.g., Suría, Sallent, Balsareny, Manresa and Cardona. CONCLUSION Mining/industrial pollution and the risk entailed in certain occupational exposures could in part be dictating the pattern of municipal bladder cancer mortality in Spain. Population exposure to arsenic is a matter that calls for attention. It would be of great interest if the relationship between the chemical quality of drinking water and the frequency of bladder cancer could be studied.

Ten-year trends in the incidence and treatment of cardiogenic shock.

BACKGROUND: Few studies describe recent changes in the incidence, treatment, and outcomes of cardiogenic shock. OBJECTIVE: To examine temporal trends in the incidence, therapeutic management, and mortality rates of patients with the acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and cardiogenic shock, and to assess associations of therapeutic management with death and cardiogenic shock developing during hospitalization. DESIGN: Analysis of registry data collected among patients admitted to hospitals between 1997 and 2006. SETTING: 70 of the 106 acute cardiac care hospitals in Switzerland. PATIENTS: 23 696 adults with ACS enrolled in the AMIS (Acute Myocardial Infarction in Switzerland) Plus Registry. MEASUREMENTS: Cardiogenic shock incidence; treatment, including rates of percutaneous coronary intervention; and in-hospital mortality rates. RESULTS: Rates of overall cardiogenic shock (8.3% of patients with ACS) and cardiogenic shock developing during hospitalization (6.0% of patients with ACS and 71.5% of patients with cardiogenic shock) decreased during the past decade (P < 0.001 for temporal trend), whereas rates of cardiogenic shock on admission remained constant (2.3% of patients with ACS and 28.5% of patients with cardiogenic shock). Rates of percutaneous coronary intervention increased among patients with cardiogenic shock (7.6% to 65.9%; P = 0.010), whereas in-hospital mortality decreased (62.8% to 47.7%; P = 0.010). Percutaneous coronary intervention was independently associated with lower risk for both in-hospital mortality in all patients with ACS (odds ratio, 0.47 [95% CI, 0.30 to 0.73]; P = 0.001) and cardiogenic shock development during hospitalization in patients with ACS but without cardiogenic shock on admission (odds ratio, 0.59 [CI, 0.39 to 0.89]; P = 0.012). LIMITATIONS: There was no central review of cardiogenic shock diagnoses, and follow-up duration was confined to the hospital stay. Unmeasured or inaccurately measured characteristics may have confounded observed associations of treatment with outcomes. CONCLUSION: Over the past decade, rates of cardiogenic shock developing during hospitalization and in-hospital mortality decreased among patients with ACS. Increased percutaneous coronary intervention rates were associated with decreased mortality among patients with cardiogenic shock and with decreased development of cardiogenic shock during hospitalization.

Prospective multicenter study of the impact of carbapenem resistance on mortality in Pseudomonas aeruginosa bloodstream infections.

The impact of antimicrobial resistance on clinical outcomes is the subject of ongoing investigations, although uncertainty remains about its contribution to mortality. We investigated the impact of carbapenem resistance on mortality in Pseudomonas aeruginosa bacteremia in a prospective multicenter (10 teaching hospitals) observational study of patients with monomicrobial bacteremia followed up for 30 days after the onset of bacteremia. The adjusted influence of carbapenem resistance on mortality was studied by using Cox regression analysis. Of 632 episodes, 487 (77%) were caused by carbapenem-susceptible P. aeruginosa (CSPA) isolates, and 145 (23%) were caused by carbapenem-resistant P. aeruginosa (CRPA) isolates. The median incidence density of nosocomial CRPA bacteremia was 2.3 episodes per 100,000 patient-days (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9 to 2.8). The regression demonstrated a time-dependent effect of carbapenem resistance on mortality as well as a significant interaction with the Charlson index: the deleterious effect of carbapenem resistance on mortality decreased with higher Charlson index scores. The impact of resistance on mortality was statistically significant only from the fifth day after the onset of the bacteremia, reaching its peak values at day 30 (adjusted hazard ratio for a Charlson score of 0 at day 30, 9.9 [95% CI, 3.3 to 29.4]; adjusted hazard ratio for a Charlson score of 5 at day 30, 2.6 [95% CI, 0.8 to 8]). This study clarifies the relationship between carbapenem resistance and mortality in patients with P. aeruginosa bacteremia. Although resistance was associated with a higher risk of mortality, the study suggested that this deleterious effect may not be as great during the first days of the bacteremia or in the presence of comorbidities.

Prospective multicenter study of the impact of carbapenem resistance on mortality in Pseudomonas aeruginosa bloodstream infections.

The impact of antimicrobial resistance on clinical outcomes is the subject of ongoing investigations, although uncertainty remains about its contribution to mortality. We investigated the impact of carbapenem resistance on mortality in Pseudomonas aeruginosa bacteremia in a prospective multicenter (10 teaching hospitals) observational study of patients with monomicrobial bacteremia followed up for 30 days after the onset of bacteremia. The adjusted influence of carbapenem resistance on mortality was studied by using Cox regression analysis. Of 632 episodes, 487 (77%) were caused by carbapenem-susceptible P. aeruginosa (CSPA) isolates, and 145 (23%) were caused by carbapenem-resistant P. aeruginosa (CRPA) isolates. The median incidence density of nosocomial CRPA bacteremia was 2.3 episodes per 100,000 patient-days (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9 to 2.8). The regression demonstrated a time-dependent effect of carbapenem resistance on mortality as well as a significant interaction with the Charlson index: the deleterious effect of carbapenem resistance on mortality decreased with higher Charlson index scores. The impact of resistance on mortality was statistically significant only from the fifth day after the onset of the bacteremia, reaching its peak values at day 30 (adjusted hazard ratio for a Charlson score of 0 at day 30, 9.9 [95% CI, 3.3 to 29.4]; adjusted hazard ratio for a Charlson score of 5 at day 30, 2.6 [95% CI, 0.8 to 8]). This study clarifies the relationship between carbapenem resistance and mortality in patients with P. aeruginosa bacteremia. Although resistance was associated with a higher risk of mortality, the study suggested that this deleterious effect may not be as great during the first days of the bacteremia or in the presence of comorbidities.

Incidence and risk factors for Contegra graft infection following right ventricular outflow tract reconstruction: long-term results.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk factors associated with Contegra graft (Medtronic Minneapolis, MN, USA) infection after reconstruction of the right ventricular outflow tract. METHODS: One hundred and six Contegra grafts were implanted between April 1999 and April 2010 for the Ross procedure (n = 46), isolated pulmonary valve replacement (n = 32), tetralogy of Fallot (n = 24), double-outlet right ventricle (n = 7), troncus arteriosus (n = 4), switch operation (n = 1) and redo of pulmonary valve replacement (n = 2). The median age of the patients was 13 years (range 0-54 years). A follow-up was completed in all cases with a median duration of 7.6 years (range 1.7-12.7 years). RESULTS: There were 3 cases of in-hospital mortality. The survival rate during 7 years was 95.7%. Despite the lifelong endocarditis prophylaxis, Contegra graft infection was diagnosed in 12 (11.3%) patients at a median time of 4.4 years (ranging from 0.4 to 8.7 years). Univariate analysis of preoperative, perioperative and postoperative variables was performed and the following risk factors for time to infection were identified: female gender with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.19 (P = 0.042), systemic-to-pulmonary shunt (HR 6.46, P < 0.01), hypothermia (HR 0.79, P = 0.014), postoperative renal insufficiency (HR 11.97, P = 0.015) and implantation of permanent pacemaker during hospitalization (HR 5.29, P = 0.075). In 2 cases, conservative therapy was successful and, in 10 patients, replacement of the infected valve was performed. The Contegra graft was replaced by a homograft in 2 cases and by a new Contegra graft in 8 cases. Cox's proportional hazard model indicated that time to graft infection was significantly associated with tetralogy of Fallot (HR 0.06, P = 0.01), systemic-to-pulmonary shunt (HR 64.71, P < 0.01) and hypothermia (HR 0.77, P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Contegra graft infection affected 11.3% of cases in our cohort, and thus may be considered as a frequent entity that can be predicted by both intraoperative and early postoperative factors. After the diagnosis of infection associated with the Contegra graft was confirmed, surgical treatment was the therapy of choice.

Thyroid cancer mortality and incidence: a global overview.

In most areas of the world, thyroid cancer incidence has been appreciably increasing over the last few decades, whereas mortality has steadily declined. We updated global trends in thyroid cancer mortality and incidence using official mortality data from the World Health Organization (1970-2012) and incidence data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (1960-2007). Male mortality declined in all the major countries considered, with annual percent changes around -2/-3% over the last decades. Only in the United States mortality declined up to the mid 1980s and increased thereafter. Similarly, in women mortality declined in most countries considered, with APCs around -2/-5% over the last decades, with the exception of the UK, the United States and Australia, where mortality has been declining up to the late 1980s/late 1990s to level off (or increase) thereafter. In 2008-2012, most countries had mortality rates (age-standardized, world population) between 0.20 and 0.40/100,000 men and 0.20 and 0.60/100,000 women, the highest rates being in Latvia, Hungary, the Republic of Moldova and Israel (over 0.40/100,000) for men and in Ecuador, Colombia and Israel (over 0.60/100,000) for women. In most countries, a steady increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer (mainly papillary carcinomas) was observed in both sexes. The declines in thyroid cancer mortality reflect both variations in risk factor exposure and changes in the diagnosis and treatment of the disease, while the increases in the incidence are likely due to the increase in the detection of this neoplasm over the last few decades.

Update on skin cancer incidence and mortality in Europe

The epidemiology of skin cancer shows interplay between host susceptibility, (ultraviolet) environment, socioeconomical conditions and behavioural patterns. Its etiology is not yet fully elucidated and reveals intriguing questions. Fair-skinned populations have experienced over the last 60 years a rapid increase in the incidence of melanoma which is unparalleled by any other cancer, although signs of levelling off and stabilization in incidence have recently been observed in some countries. Despite many primary prevention and early detection campaigns over the last decades in Europe, decreases in melanoma mortality are modest and limited to a few countries. Further, reduction in the incidence of thick melanomas has not yet been evidenced. In this presentation, drivers for the incidence and mortality trends of skin cancer, with a strong focus on melanoma, its most lethal form, will be discussed.

Dramatic effect of early clopidogrel administration in reducing mortality and MACE rates in ACS patients. Data from the Swiss registry AMIS-Plus.

BACKGROUND: Patients who have acute coronary syndromes with or without ST-segment elevation have high rates of major vascular events. We evaluated the efficacy of early clopidogrel administration (300 mg) (<24 hours) when given with aspirin in such patients. METHODS: We included 30,243 patients who had an acute coronary syndrome with or without ST segment elevation. Data on early clopidogrel administration were available for 24,463 (81%). Some 15,525 (51%) of the total cohort were administrated clopidogrel within 24h of admission. RESULTS: In-hospital death occurred in 2.9% of the patients in the early clopidogrel group treated with primary PCI and in 11.4% of the patients in the other group without primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and no early clopidogrel. The unadjusted clopidogrel odds ratio (OR) for mortality was 0.31 (95% confidence interval 0.27-0.34; p <0.001). Incidence of major adverse cardiac death (MACE) was 4.1% in the early clopidogrel group treated with 1°PCI and 13.5% in the other group without primary PCI and no early clopidogrel (OR 0.35, confidence interval 0.32-0.39, p <0.001). Early clopidogrel administration and PCI were the only treatment lowering mortality as shown by mutlivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The early administration of the anti-platelet agent clopidogrel in patients with acute coronary syndromes with or without ST-segment elevation has a beneficial effect on mortality and major adverse cardiac events. The lower mortality rate and incidence of MACE emerged with a combination of primary PCI and early clopidogrel administration.

Patterns and trends in esophageal cancer mortality and incidence in Europe (1980-2011) and predictions to 2015

BACKGROUND: Over the last few decades, esophageal cancer incidence and mortality trends varied substantially across Europe, with important differences between sexes and the two main histological subtypes, squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and adenocarcinoma (EAC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: To monitor recent esophageal cancer mortality trends and to compute short-term predictions in the European Union (EU) and selected European countries, we analyzed data provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) for 1980-2011. We also analyzed incidence trends and relative weights of ESCC and EAC across Europe using data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents. RESULTS: Long-term decreasing trends were observed for male esophageal cancer mortality in several southern and western European countries, whereas in central Europe mortality increased until the mid-1990s and started to stabilize or decline over the last years. In some eastern and northern countries, the rates were still increasing. Mortality among European women remained comparatively low and showed stable or decreasing trends in most countries. Between 2000-2004 and 2005-2009, esophageal cancer mortality declined by 7% (from 5.34 to 4.99/100 000) in EU men, and by 3% (from 1.12 to 1.09/100 000) in EU women. Predictions to 2015 show persistent declines in mortality rates for men in the EU overall, and stable rates for EU women, with rates for 2015 of 4.5/100 000 men (about 22 300 deaths) and 1.1/100 000 women (about 7400 deaths). In northern Europe, EAC is now the predominant histological type among men, while for European women ESCC is more common and corresponding rates are still increasing in several countries. CONCLUSION(S): The observed trends reflect the variations in alcohol drinking, tobacco smoking and overweight across European countries.

Incidence of bullous pemphigoid and pemphigus in Switzerland: a 2-year prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Bullous pemphigoid (BP), pemphigus vulgaris (PV) and pemphigus foliaceus (PF) are autoimmune bullous diseases characterized by the presence of tissue-bound and circulating autoantibodies directed against disease-specific target antigens of the skin. Although rare, these diseases run a chronic course and are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. There are few prospective data on gender- and age-specific incidence of these disorders. OBJECTIVES: Our aims were: (i) to evaluate the incidence of BP and PV/PF in Swiss patients, as the primary endpoint; and (ii) to assess the profile of the patients, particularly for comorbidities and medications, as the secondary endpoint. METHODS: The protocol of the study was distributed to all dermatology clinics, immunopathology laboratories and practising dermatologists in Switzerland. All newly diagnosed cases of BP and pemphigus occurring between 1 January 2001 and 31 December 2002 were collected. In total, 168 patients (73 men and 95 women) with these autoimmune bullous diseases, with a diagnosis based on clinical, histological and immunopathological criteria, were finally included. RESULTS: BP showed a mean incidence of 12.1 new cases per million people per year. Its incidence increased significantly after the age of 70 years, with a maximal value after the age of 90 years. The female/male ratio was 1.3. The age-standardized incidence of BP using the European population as reference was, however, lower, with 6.8 new cases per million people per year, reflecting the ageing of the Swiss population. In contrast, both PV and PF were less frequent. Their combined mean incidence was 0.6 new cases per million people per year. CONCLUSIONS; This is the first comprehensive prospective study analysing the incidence of autoimmune bullous diseases in an entire country. Our patient cohort is large enough to establish BP as the most frequent autoimmune bullous disease. Its incidence rate appears higher compared with other previous studies, most likely because of the demographic characteristics of the Swiss population. Nevertheless, based on its potentially misleading presentations, it is possible that the real incidence rate of BP is still underestimated. Based on its significant incidence in the elderly population, BP should deserve more public health concern.