Bayesian joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data

The joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data is a new approach to many applications such as HIV, cancer vaccine trials and quality of life studies. There are recent developments of the methodologies with respect to each of the components of the joint model as well as statistical processes that link them together. Among these, second order polynomial random effect models and linear mixed effects models are the most commonly used for the longitudinal trajectory function. In this study, we first relax the parametric constraints for polynomial random effect models by using Dirichlet process priors, then three longitudinal markers rather than only one marker are considered in one joint model. Second, we use a linear mixed effect model for the longitudinal process in a joint model analyzing the three markers. In this research these methods were applied to the Primary Biliary Cirrhosis sequential data, which were collected from a clinical trial of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) of the liver. This trial was conducted between 1974 and 1984 at the Mayo Clinic. The effects of three longitudinal markers (1) Total Serum Bilirubin, (2) Serum Albumin and (3) Serum Glutamic-Oxaloacetic transaminase (SGOT) on patients' survival were investigated. Proportion of treatment effect will also be studied using the proposed joint modeling approaches. ^ Based on the results, we conclude that the proposed modeling approaches yield better fit to the data and give less biased parameter estimates for these trajectory functions than previous methods. Model fit is also improved after considering three longitudinal markers instead of one marker only. The results from analysis of proportion of treatment effects from these joint models indicate same conclusion as that from the final model of Fleming and Harrington (1991), which is Bilirubin and Albumin together has stronger impact in predicting patients' survival and as a surrogate endpoints for treatment. ^

Domain-Specific Multi-Modeling of Security Concerns in Service-Oriented Architectures

As a common reference for many in-development standards and execution frameworks, special attention is being paid to Service-Oriented Architectures. SOAs modeling, however, is an area in which a consensus has not being achieved. Currently, standardization organizations are defining proposals to offer a solution to this problem. Nevertheless, until very recently, non-functional aspects of services have not been considered for standardization processes. In particular, there exists a lack of a design solution that permits an independent development of the functional and non-functional concerns of SOAs, allowing that each concern be addressed in a convenient manner in early stages of the development, in a way that could guarantee the quality of this type of systems. This paper, leveraging on previous work, presents an approach to integrate security-related non-functional aspects (such as confidentiality, integrity, and access control) in the development of services.

Hybrid incremental modeling based on least squares and fuzzy K-NN for monitoring tool wear in turning processes

There is now an emerging need for an efficient modeling strategy to develop a new generation of monitoring systems. One method of approaching the modeling of complex processes is to obtain a global model. It should be able to capture the basic or general behavior of the system, by means of a linear or quadratic regression, and then superimpose a local model on it that can capture the localized nonlinearities of the system. In this paper, a novel method based on a hybrid incremental modeling approach is designed and applied for tool wear detection in turning processes. It involves a two-step iterative process that combines a global model with a local model to take advantage of their underlying, complementary capacities. Thus, the first step constructs a global model using a least squares regression. A local model using the fuzzy k-nearest-neighbors smoothing algorithm is obtained in the second step. A comparative study then demonstrates that the hybrid incremental model provides better error-based performance indices for detecting tool wear than a transductive neurofuzzy model and an inductive neurofuzzy model.

Self-organizing cultured neural networks: Image analysis techniques for longitudinal tracking and modeling of the underlying network structure

Esta tesis estudia la evolución estructural de conjuntos de neuronas como la capacidad de auto-organización desde conjuntos de neuronas separadas hasta que forman una red (clusterizada) compleja. Esta tesis contribuye con el diseño e implementación de un algoritmo no supervisado de segmentación basado en grafos con un coste computacional muy bajo. Este algoritmo proporciona de forma automática la estructura completa de la red a partir de imágenes de cultivos neuronales tomadas con microscopios de fase con una resolución muy alta. La estructura de la red es representada mediante un objeto matemático (matriz) cuyos nodos representan a las neuronas o grupos de neuronas y los enlaces son las conexiones reconstruidas entre ellos. Este algoritmo extrae también otras medidas morfológicas importantes que caracterizan a las neuronas y a las neuritas. A diferencia de otros algoritmos hasta el momento, que necesitan de fluorescencia y técnicas inmunocitoquímicas, el algoritmo propuesto permite el estudio longitudinal de forma no invasiva posibilitando el estudio durante la formación de un cultivo. Además, esta tesis, estudia de forma sistemática un grupo de variables topológicas que garantizan la posibilidad de cuantificar e investigar la progresión de las características principales durante el proceso de auto-organización del cultivo. Nuestros resultados muestran la existencia de un estado concreto correspondiente a redes con configuracin small-world y la emergencia de propiedades a micro- y meso-escala de la estructura de la red. Finalmente, identificamos los procesos físicos principales que guían las transformaciones morfológicas de los cultivos y proponemos un modelo de crecimiento de red que reproduce el comportamiento cuantitativamente de las observaciones experimentales. ABSTRACT The thesis analyzes the morphological evolution of assemblies of living neurons, as they self-organize from collections of separated cells into elaborated, clustered, networks. In particular, it contributes with the design and implementation of a graph-based unsupervised segmentation algorithm, having an associated very low computational cost. The processing automatically retrieves the whole network structure from large scale phase-contrast images taken at high resolution throughout the entire life of a cultured neuronal network. The network structure is represented by a mathematical object (a matrix) in which nodes are identified neurons or neurons clusters, and links are the reconstructed connections between them. The algorithm is also able to extract any other relevant morphological information characterizing neurons and neurites. More importantly, and at variance with other segmentation methods that require fluorescence imaging from immunocyto- chemistry techniques, our measures are non invasive and entitle us to carry out a fully longitudinal analysis during the maturation of a single culture. In turn, a systematic statistical analysis of a group of topological observables grants us the possibility of quantifying and tracking the progression of the main networks characteristics during the self-organization process of the culture. Our results point to the existence of a particular state corresponding to a small-world network configuration, in which several relevant graphs micro- and meso-scale properties emerge. Finally, we identify the main physical processes taking place during the cultures morphological transformations, and embed them into a simplified growth model that quantitatively reproduces the overall set of experimental observations.

Self-organizing cultured neural networks: Image analysis techniques for longitudinal tracking and modeling of the underlying network structure (versión actualizada)

Esta tesis estudia la evolución estructural de conjuntos de neuronas como la capacidad de auto-organización desde conjuntos de neuronas separadas hasta que forman una red (clusterizada) compleja. Esta tesis contribuye con el diseño e implementación de un algoritmo no supervisado de segmentación basado en grafos con un coste computacional muy bajo. Este algoritmo proporciona de forma automática la estructura completa de la red a partir de imágenes de cultivos neuronales tomadas con microscopios de fase con una resolución muy alta. La estructura de la red es representada mediante un objeto matemático (matriz) cuyos nodos representan a las neuronas o grupos de neuronas y los enlaces son las conexiones reconstruidas entre ellos. Este algoritmo extrae también otras medidas morfológicas importantes que caracterizan a las neuronas y a las neuritas. A diferencia de otros algoritmos hasta el momento, que necesitan de fluorescencia y técnicas inmunocitoquímicas, el algoritmo propuesto permite el estudio longitudinal de forma no invasiva posibilitando el estudio durante la formación de un cultivo. Además, esta tesis, estudia de forma sistemática un grupo de variables topológicas que garantizan la posibilidad de cuantificar e investigar la progresión de las características principales durante el proceso de auto-organización del cultivo. Nuestros resultados muestran la existencia de un estado concreto correspondiente a redes con configuracin small-world y la emergencia de propiedades a micro- y meso-escala de la estructura de la red. Finalmente, identificamos los procesos físicos principales que guían las transformaciones morfológicas de los cultivos y proponemos un modelo de crecimiento de red que reproduce el comportamiento cuantitativamente de las observaciones experimentales. ABSTRACT The thesis analyzes the morphological evolution of assemblies of living neurons, as they self-organize from collections of separated cells into elaborated, clustered, networks. In particular, it contributes with the design and implementation of a graph-based unsupervised segmentation algorithm, having an associated very low computational cost. The processing automatically retrieves the whole network structure from large scale phase-contrast images taken at high resolution throughout the entire life of a cultured neuronal network. The network structure is represented by a mathematical object (a matrix) in which nodes are identified neurons or neurons clusters, and links are the reconstructed connections between them. The algorithm is also able to extract any other relevant morphological information characterizing neurons and neurites. More importantly, and at variance with other segmentation methods that require fluorescence imaging from immunocyto- chemistry techniques, our measures are non invasive and entitle us to carry out a fully longitudinal analysis during the maturation of a single culture. In turn, a systematic statistical analysis of a group of topological observables grants us the possibility of quantifying and tracking the progression of the main networks characteristics during the self-organization process of the culture. Our results point to the existence of a particular state corresponding to a small-world network configuration, in which several relevant graphs micro- and meso-scale properties emerge. Finally, we identify the main physical processes taking place during the cultures morphological transformations, and embed them into a simplified growth model that quantitatively reproduces the overall set of experimental observations.

Atomistic modeling of Ge damage accumulation, amorphization and solid phase epitaxial regrowth

En los últimos años, el Ge ha ganado de nuevo atención con la finalidad de ser integrado en el seno de las existentes tecnologías de microelectrónica. Aunque no se le considera como un canddato capaz de reemplazar completamente al Si en el futuro próximo, probalemente servirá como un excelente complemento para aumentar las propiedades eléctricas en dispositivos futuros, especialmente debido a su alta movilidad de portadores. Esta integración requiere de un avance significativo del estado del arte en los procesos de fabricado. Técnicas de simulación, como los algoritmos de Monte Carlo cinético (KMC), proporcionan un ambiente atractivo para llevar a cabo investigación y desarrollo en este campo, especialmente en términos de costes en tiempo y financiación. En este estudio se han usado, por primera vez, técnicas de KMC con el fin entender el procesado “front-end” de Ge en su fabricación, específicamente la acumulación de dañado y amorfización producidas por implantación iónica y el crecimiento epitaxial en fase sólida (SPER) de las capas amorfizadas. Primero, simulaciones de aproximación de clisiones binarias (BCA) son usadas para calcular el dañado causado por cada ión. La evolución de este dañado en el tiempo se simula usando KMC sin red, o de objetos (OKMC) en el que sólamente se consideran los defectos. El SPER se simula a través de una aproximación KMC de red (LKMC), siendo capaz de seguir la evolución de los átomos de la red que forman la intercara amorfo/cristalina. Con el modelo de amorfización desarrollado a lo largo de este trabajo, implementado en un simulador multi-material, se pueden simular todos estos procesos. Ha sido posible entender la acumulación de dañado, desde la generación de defectos puntuales hasta la formación completa de capas amorfas. Esta acumulación ocurre en tres regímenes bien diferenciados, empezando con un ritmo lento de formación de regiones de dañado, seguido por una rápida relajación local de ciertas áreas en la fase amorfa donde ambas fases, amorfa y cristalina, coexisten, para terminar en la amorfización completa de capas extensas, donde satura el ritmo de acumulación. Dicha transición ocurre cuando la concentración de dañado supera cierto valor límite, el cual es independiente de las condiciones de implantación. Cuando se implantan los iones a temperaturas relativamente altas, el recocido dinámico cura el dañado previamente introducido y se establece una competición entre la generación de dañado y su disolución. Estos efectos se vuelven especialmente importantes para iones ligeros, como el B, el cual crea dañado más diluido, pequeño y distribuido de manera diferente que el causado por la implantación de iones más pesados, como el Ge. Esta descripción reproduce satisfactoriamente la cantidad de dañado y la extensión de las capas amorfas causadas por implantación iónica reportadas en la bibliografía. La velocidad de recristalización de la muestra previamente amorfizada depende fuertemente de la orientación del sustrato. El modelo LKMC presentado ha sido capaz de explicar estas diferencias entre orientaciones a través de un simple modelo, dominado por una única energía de activación y diferentes prefactores en las frecuencias de SPER dependiendo de las configuraciones de vecinos de los átomos que recristalizan. La formación de maclas aparece como una consecuencia de esta descripción, y es predominante en sustratos crecidos en la orientación (111)Ge. Este modelo es capaz de reproducir resultados experimentales para diferentes orientaciones, temperaturas y tiempos de evolución de la intercara amorfo/cristalina reportados por diferentes autores. Las parametrizaciones preliminares realizadas de los tensores de activación de tensiones son también capaces de proveer una buena correlación entre las simulaciones y los resultados experimentales de velocidad de SPER a diferentes temperaturas bajo una presión hidrostática aplicada. Los estudios presentados en esta tesis han ayudado a alcanzar un mejor entendimiento de los mecanismos de producción de dañado, su evolución, amorfización y SPER para Ge, además de servir como una útil herramienta para continuar el trabajo en este campo. In the recent years, Ge has regained attention to be integrated into existing microelectronic technologies. Even though it is not thought to be a feasible full replacement to Si in the near future, it will likely serve as an excellent complement to enhance electrical properties in future devices, specially due to its high carrier mobilities. This integration requires a significant upgrade of the state-of-the-art of regular manufacturing processes. Simulation techniques, such as kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) algorithms, provide an appealing environment to research and innovation in the field, specially in terms of time and funding costs. In the present study, KMC techniques are used, for the first time, to understand Ge front-end processing, specifically damage accumulation and amorphization produced by ion implantation and Solid Phase Epitaxial Regrowth (SPER) of the amorphized layers. First, Binary Collision Approximation (BCA) simulations are used to calculate the damage caused by every ion. The evolution of this damage over time is simulated using non-lattice, or Object, KMC (OKMC) in which only defects are considered. SPER is simulated through a Lattice KMC (LKMC) approach, being able to follow the evolution of the lattice atoms forming the amorphous/crystalline interface. With the amorphization model developed in this work, implemented into a multi-material process simulator, all these processes can be simulated. It has been possible to understand damage accumulation, from point defect generation up to full amorphous layers formation. This accumulation occurs in three differentiated regimes, starting at a slow formation rate of the damage regions, followed by a fast local relaxation of areas into the amorphous phase where both crystalline and amorphous phases coexist, ending in full amorphization of extended layers, where the accumulation rate saturates. This transition occurs when the damage concentration overcomes a certain threshold value, which is independent of the implantation conditions. When implanting ions at relatively high temperatures, dynamic annealing takes place, healing the previously induced damage and establishing a competition between damage generation and its dissolution. These effects become specially important for light ions, as B, for which the created damage is more diluted, smaller and differently distributed than that caused by implanting heavier ions, as Ge. This description successfully reproduces damage quantity and extension of amorphous layers caused by means of ion implantation reported in the literature. Recrystallization velocity of the previously amorphized sample strongly depends on the substrate orientation. The presented LKMC model has been able to explain these differences between orientations through a simple model, dominated by one only activation energy and different prefactors for the SPER rates depending on the neighboring configuration of the recrystallizing atoms. Twin defects formation appears as a consequence of this description, and are predominant for (111)Ge oriented grown substrates. This model is able to reproduce experimental results for different orientations, temperatures and times of evolution of the amorphous/crystalline interface reported by different authors. Preliminary parameterizations for the activation strain tensors are able to also provide a good match between simulations and reported experimental results for SPER velocities at different temperatures under the appliance of hydrostatic pressure. The studies presented in this thesis have helped to achieve a greater understanding of damage generation, evolution, amorphization and SPER mechanisms in Ge, and also provide a useful tool to continue research in this field.

Microbes as engines of ecosystem function : When does community structure enhance predictions of ecosystem processes?

Peer reviewed

Modeling of Self-similar Traffic

Modeling of self-similar traffic is performed for the queuing system of G/M/1/K type using Weibull distribution. To study the self-similar traffic the simulation model is developed by using SIMULINK software package in MATLAB environment. Approximation of self-similar traffic on the basis of spline functions. Modeling self-similar traffic is carried outfor QS of W/M/1/K type using the Weibull distribution. Initial data are: the value of Hurst parameter H=0,65, the shape parameter of the distribution curve α≈0,7 and distribution parameter β≈0,0099. Considering that the self-similar traffic is characterized by the presence of "splashes" and long-termdependence between the moments of requests arrival in this study under given initial data it is reasonable to use linear interpolation splines.

Modeling of optical detection of spin-polarized carrier injection into light-emitting devices

We investigate the emission of multimodal polarized light from light emitting devices due to spin-aligned carrier injection. The results are derived through operator Langevin equations, which include thermal and carrier-injection fluctuations, as well as nonradiative recombination and electronic g-factor temperature dependence. We study the dynamics of the optoelectronic processes and show how the temperature-dependent g factor and magnetic field affect the degree of polarization of the emitted light. In addition, at high temperatures, thermal fluctuation reduces the efficiency of the optoelectronic detection method for measuring the degree of spin polarization of carrier injection into nonmagnetic semicondutors.

A longitudinal investigation of coping processes during a merger: Implications for job satisfaction and organizational identification

This study tested the utility of a stress and coping model of employee adjustment to a merger Two hundred and twenty employees completed both questionnaires (Time 1: 3 months after merger implementation; Time 2: 2 years later). Structural equation modeling analyses revealed that positive event characteristics predicted greater appraisals of self-efficacy and less stress at Time 1. Self-efficacy, in turn, predicted greater use of problem-focused coping at Time 2, whereas stress predicted a greater use of problem-focused and avoidance coping. Finally, problem-focused coping predicted higher levels of job satisfaction and identification with the merged organization (Time 2), whereas avoidance coping predicted lower identification.

Numerical modeling of holmium-doped fluoride fiber lasers

We combine all the known experimental demonstrations and spectroscopic parameters into a numerical model of the Ho3+ -doped fluoride glass fiber laser system. Core-pumped and cladding-pumped arrangements were simulated for all the population-bottlenecking mitigation schemes that have been tested, and good agreement between the model and the previously reported experimental results was achieved in most but not in all cases. In a similar way to Er3+ -doped fluoride glass fiber lasers, we found that the best match with measurements required scaled-down rate parameters for the energy transfer processes that operate in moderate to highly concentrated systems. The model isolated the dominant processes affecting the performance of each of the bottlenecking mitigation schemes and pump arrangements. It was established that pump excited-state absorption is the main factor affecting the performance of the core-pumped demonstrations of the laser, while energy transfer between rare earth ions is the main factor controlling the performance in cladding-pumped systems.

Goal-based modeling of dynamically adaptive system requirements

Self-adaptation is emerging as an increasingly important capability for many applications, particularly those deployed in dynamically changing environments, such as ecosystem monitoring and disaster management. One key challenge posed by Dynamically Adaptive Systems (DASs) is the need to handle changes to the requirements and corresponding behavior of a DAS in response to varying environmental conditions. Berry et al. previously identified four levels of RE that should be performed for a DAS. In this paper, we propose the Levels of RE for Modeling that reify the original levels to describe RE modeling work done by DAS developers. Specifically, we identify four types of developers: the system developer, the adaptation scenario developer, the adaptation infrastructure developer, and the DAS research community. Each level corresponds to the work of a different type of developer to construct goal model(s) specifying their requirements. We then leverage the Levels of RE for Modeling to propose two complementary processes for performing RE for a DAS. We describe our experiences with applying this approach to GridStix, an adaptive flood warning system, deployed to monitor the River Ribble in Yorkshire, England.

Application of the Artificial Intelligence Algorithms with a Cognitive Graphic as a Tool for a System Analysis of Electrophysiological Processes

Summarizing the accumulated experience for a long time in the polyparametric cognitive modeling of different physiological processes (electrocardiogram, electroencephalogram, electroreovasogram and others) and the development on this basis some diagnostics methods give ground for formulating a new methodology of the system analysis in biology. The gist of the methodology consists of parametrization of fractals of electrophysiological processes, matrix description of functional state of an object with a unified set of parameters, construction of the polyparametric cognitive geometric model with artificial intelligence algorithms. The geometry model enables to display the parameter relationships are adequate to requirements of the system approach. The objective character of the elements of the models and high degree of formalization which facilitate the use of the mathematical methods are advantages of these models. At the same time the geometric images are easily interpreted in physiological and clinical terms. The polyparametric modeling is an object oriented tool possessed advances functional facilities and some principal features.

Modeling of Effective Process of Network Maintaining Based on Statistical Data

This paper is dedicated to modelling of network maintaining based on live example – maintaining ATM banking network, where any problems are mean money loss. A full analysis is made in order to estimate valuable and not-valuable parameters based on complex analysis of available data. Correlation analysis helps to estimate provided data and to produce a complex solution of increasing network maintaining effectiveness.

Business Modeling of the Application Architecture of the Bulgarian Folklore Artery

In an attempt to answer the need of wider accessibility and popularization of the treasury of Bulgarian folklore, a team from the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences has planned to develop the Bulgarian folklore artery within the national project ―Knowledge Technologies for Creation of Digital Presentation and Significant Repositories of Folklore Heritage‖. This paper presents the process of business modeling of the application architecture of the Bulgarian folklore artery, which aids requirements analysis, application design and its software implementation. The folklore domain process model is made in the context of the target social applications—e-learning, virtual expositions of folklore artifacts, research, news, cultural/ethno-tourism, etc. The basic processes are analyzed and modeled and some inferences are made for the use cases and requirements specification of the Bulgarian folklore artery application. As a conclusion the application architecture of the Bulgarian folklore artery is presented.