A probabilistic approach to classify the levee reliability

This work aims to evaluate the reliability of these levee systems, calculating the probability of “failure” of determined levee stretches under different loads, using probabilistic methods that take into account the fragility curves obtained through the Monte Carlo Method. For this study overtopping and piping are considered as failure mechanisms (since these are the most frequent) and the major levee system of the Po River with a primary focus on the section between Piacenza and Cremona, in the lower-middle area of the Padana Plain, is analysed. The novelty of this approach is to check the reliability of individual embankment stretches, not just a single section, while taking into account the variability of the levee system geometry from one stretch to another. This work takes also into consideration, for each levee stretch analysed, a probability distribution of the load variables involved in the definition of the fragility curves, where it is influenced by the differences in the topography and morphology of the riverbed along the sectional depth analysed as it pertains to the levee system in its entirety. A type of classification is proposed, for both failure mechanisms, to give an indication of the reliability of the levee system based of the information obtained by the fragility curve analysis. To accomplish this work, an hydraulic model has been developed where a 500-year flood is modelled to determinate the residual hazard value of failure for each stretch of levee near the corresponding water depth, then comparing the results with the obtained classifications. This work has the additional the aim of acting as an interface between the world of Applied Geology and Environmental Hydraulic Engineering where a strong collaboration is needed between the two professions to resolve and improve the estimation of hydraulic risk.

Greenstick fractures of the middle third of the forearm. A prospective multi-centre study

Greenstick fractures suffered during growth have a high risk for refracture and posttraumatic deformity, particularly at the forearm diaphysis. The use of a preemptive completion of the fracture by manipulation of the concave cortex is controversial and data supporting this approach are few.

Reading Readings: An Approach to the Relationship between Television and Literature at School

The main problem addressed by this research was that of what are the relations between TV viewing at home and studying literature at school, and how an adequate position on this can be reached. As well as the theoretical background, it involved an experimental study with classes of second and sixth grade students, discussing and observing their reactions to and interpretations of a number of animated cartoons. The work is divided into four parts - Is there a Class in this Text?, Stories of Reading, Narratives of Animation and Animation of Narratives, and The (Three) Unrepeatable (Pigs). Beginning, Middle End - which examine the tensions between the "undiscriminating sequence" of the televisual flow and a way of "thinking", "making" and "doing" education that presupposes a fundamental belief in possible re-productions, copies unescaping, following the original, or competing. The work focuses on animated cartoons, seeing them not merely as a part of the flow of television, but as an allegory of reading this flow, of the flow within the flow itself. What they question - "identity", "end", "followability" - is what is most important to teaching. Thus the interest in the metamorphoses of animated films is an interest in the tensions which their "strange law/flow" introduces into the field of teaching - this totally forbidden place of saying everything.

The Language of Political Conflict: A Logico-Semantic Approach

A semantic approach towards political conflict first emerged in the 1930s and provides the methodological foundations for the description of political conflicts, in particular as the correlation between the language of description and reality. Any military or political confrontation presupposes axiological, conceptual and ideological confrontation. The form of adequate description can only be comprehended if the characteristic features of its language (structure) and thesaurus are revealed. Admitting the possibility of different descriptions implies the necessity of analysing this possible ambiguity, i.e. the characteristic features of the language which enable us to form various statements, including mutually exclusive ones. The insoluble task of finding a middle ground between the viewpoints of the conflicting parties should be replaced by soluble procedures of explaining and assessing the conflicting axiologies. For the description of conflict situations, when it is essential to represent various positions within a uniform system, an apparatus of model semantics seems to be the most appropriate one both for generating alternatives and for bringing them together in a modal system of a world in which procedures of transition from one world to another (i.e. the transworld compatibility between them) are also reflected. Reality is reconstructed not as a sort of middle ground between the mutually exclusive approaches nor as their sum, but as a result of the overlapping of various worlds and the procedures of transition from one state of affairs to another. The description of a conflict is therefore seen as a system of worlds connected by modal relations, with a system of worlds emerging as a reality to be described. This approach makes it possible to describe the processes from the points of view of the participating parties and, at the same time, to reveal their basic attitudes. The main idea of this research is shown by the problems analysed: the description of conflict as methodology; language and behaviour (general problems of semiotic description), the logico-semantic analysis of the notions of "problem and conflict", "Genesis and Chronology", "the recurrent model of the (historical) explanation and interpretation of the conflict". Zolyan used data on the Karabagh conflict to demonstrate the dependence of the structure of semio-cultural codes on current political development and considered post-soviet history as a semio-cultural problem. He sought to consider and reveal the logic of manipulations with history, and proposed the logic of preferences as a possible instrument for achieving compromise.

First middle-atmospheric zonal wind profile measurements with a new ground-based microwave Doppler-spectro-radiometer

We report on the wind radiometer WIRA, a new ground-based microwave Doppler-spectro-radiometer specifically designed for the measurement of middle-atmospheric horizontal wind by observing ozone emission spectra at 142.17504 GHz. Currently, wind speeds in five levels between 30 and 79 km can be retrieved which makes WIRA the first instrument able to continuously measure horizontal wind in this altitude range. For an integration time of one day the measurement error on each level lies at around 25 m s−1. With a planned upgrade this value is expected to be reduced by a factor of 2 in the near future. On the altitude levels where our measurement can be compared to wind data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) very good agreement in the long-term statistics as well as in short time structures with a duration of a few days has been found. WIRA uses a passive double sideband heterodyne receiver together with a digital Fourier transform spectrometer for the data acquisition. A big advantage of the radiometric approach is that such instruments can also operate under adverse weather conditions and thus provide a continuous time series for the given location. The optics enables the instrument to scan a wide range of azimuth angles including the directions east, west, north, and south for zonal and meridional wind measurements. The design of the radiometer is fairly compact and its calibration does not rely on liquid nitrogen which makes it transportable and suitable for campaign use. WIRA is conceived in a way that it can be operated remotely and does hardly require any maintenance. In the present paper, a description of the instrument is given, and the techniques used for the wind retrieval based on the determination of the Doppler shift of the measured atmospheric ozone emission spectra are outlined. Their reliability was tested using Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, a time series of 11 months of zonal wind measurements over Bern (46°57′ N, 7°26′ E) is presented and compared to ECMWF wind data.

Design and evaluation of the parent education component of a comprehensive violence prevention project in middle schools

Low parental monitoring is related to youth risk behaviors such as delinquency and aggression. The purpose of this dissertation was to describe the development and evaluation of a parent education intervention to increase parental monitoring in Hispanic parents of middle school children.^ The first study described the process of intervention mapping as used to develop Padres Trabajando por la Paz, a newsletter intervention for parents. Using theory, empirical literature, and information from the target population, performance objectives and determinants for monitoring were defined. Learning objectives were specified and a staged social-cognitive approach was used to develop methods and strategies delivered through newsletters.^ The second study examined the outcomes of a randomized trial of the newsletter intervention. Outcome measures consisted of a general measure of monitoring, parent and child reports of monitoring behaviors targeted by the intervention, and psychosocial determinants of monitoring (self-efficacy, norms, outcome expectancies, knowledge, and beliefs). Seventy-seven parents completed the randomized trial, half of which received four newsletters over an eight-week period. Results revealed a significant interaction effect for baseline and treatment for parent's reports of norms for monitoring (p =.009). Parents in the experimental condition who scored low at baseline reported increased norms for monitoring at follow-up. A significant interaction effect for child reports of parental monitoring behaviors (p =.04) reflected an small increase across baseline levels in the experimental condition and decreases for the control condition at higher baseline scores. Both groups of parents reported increased levels of monitoring at follow-up. No other outcome measures varied significantly by condition.^ The third study examined the relationship between the psychosocial determinants of parental monitoring and parental monitoring behaviors in the study population. Weak evidence for a relationship between outcome expectancies and parental monitoring behaviors suggests further research in the area utilizing stronger empirical models such as longitudinal design and structural equation modeling.^ The low-cost, minimal newsletter intervention showed promise for changing norms among Hispanic parents for parental monitoring. In light of the importance of parental monitoring as a protective factor for youth health risk behaviors, more research needs to be done to develop and evaluate interventions to increase parental monitoring. ^

Digital Data Collection and Processing in Field and Lab: The Approach of Kinneret Regional Project

The paper showcases the field- and lab-documentation system developed for Kinneret Regional Project, an international archaeological expedition to the Northwestern shore of the Sea of Galilee (Israel) under the auspices of the University of Bern, the University of Helsinki, Leiden University and Wofford College. The core of the data management system is a fully relational, server-based database framework, which also includes time-based and static GIS services, stratigraphic analysis tools and fully indexed document/digital image archives. Data collection in the field is based on mobile, hand-held devices equipped with a custom-tailored stand-alone application. Comprehensive three-dimensional documentation of all finds and findings is achieved by means of total stations and/or high-precision GPS devices. All archaeological information retrieved in the field – including tachymetric data – is synched with the core system on the fly and thus immediately available for further processing in the field lab (within the local network) or for post-excavation analysis at remote institutions (via the WWW). Besides a short demonstration of the main functionalities, the paper also presents some of the key technologies used and illustrates usability aspects of the system’s individual components.

Writing theatre history – The mainstream approach and alternatives

Main questions: 1. How to deal with the beginnings of theatre? 2. Do we have to consider a “second birth of theatre” in the Middle Ages? 3. What influences do media have on writing theatre histories?

A Neuromonitoring Approach to Facial Nerve Preservation During Image-guided Robotic Cochlear Implantation.

HYPOTHESIS A multielectrode probe in combination with an optimized stimulation protocol could provide sufficient sensitivity and specificity to act as an effective safety mechanism for preservation of the facial nerve in case of an unsafe drill distance during image-guided cochlear implantation. BACKGROUND A minimally invasive cochlear implantation is enabled by image-guided and robotic-assisted drilling of an access tunnel to the middle ear cavity. The approach requires the drill to pass at distances below 1 mm from the facial nerve and thus safety mechanisms for protecting this critical structure are required. Neuromonitoring is currently used to determine facial nerve proximity in mastoidectomy but lacks sensitivity and specificity necessaries to effectively distinguish the close distance ranges experienced in the minimally invasive approach, possibly because of current shunting of uninsulated stimulating drilling tools in the drill tunnel and because of nonoptimized stimulation parameters. To this end, we propose an advanced neuromonitoring approach using varying levels of stimulation parameters together with an integrated bipolar and monopolar stimulating probe. MATERIALS AND METHODS An in vivo study (sheep model) was conducted in which measurements at specifically planned and navigated lateral distances from the facial nerve were performed to determine if specific sets of stimulation parameters in combination with the proposed neuromonitoring system could reliably detect an imminent collision with the facial nerve. For the accurate positioning of the neuromonitoring probe, a dedicated robotic system for image-guided cochlear implantation was used and drilling accuracy was corrected on postoperative microcomputed tomographic images. RESULTS From 29 trajectories analyzed in five different subjects, a correlation between stimulus threshold and drill-to-facial nerve distance was found in trajectories colliding with the facial nerve (distance <0.1 mm). The shortest pulse duration that provided the highest linear correlation between stimulation intensity and drill-to-facial nerve distance was 250 μs. Only at low stimulus intensity values (≤0.3 mA) and with the bipolar configurations of the probe did the neuromonitoring system enable sufficient lateral specificity (>95%) at distances to the facial nerve below 0.5 mm. However, reduction in stimulus threshold to 0.3 mA or lower resulted in a decrease of facial nerve distance detection range below 0.1 mm (>95% sensitivity). Subsequent histopathology follow-up of three representative cases where the neuromonitoring system could reliably detect a collision with the facial nerve (distance <0.1 mm) revealed either mild or inexistent damage to the nerve fascicles. CONCLUSION Our findings suggest that although no general correlation between facial nerve distance and stimulation threshold existed, possibly because of variances in patient-specific anatomy, correlations at very close distances to the facial nerve and high levels of specificity would enable a binary response warning system to be developed using the proposed probe at low stimulation currents.

How Plankton Swim: An Interdisciplinary Approach for Using Mathematics & Physics to Understand the Biology of the Natural World

The authors have developed and field-tested high school-level curricular materials that guide students to use biology, mathematics, and physics to understand plankton and how these tiny organisms move in a world where their intuition does not apply. The authors chose plankton as the focus of their materials primarily because the challenges faced by plankton are novel problems to most students, forcing adoption of new perspectives and making the study of plankton exciting. Additional reasons that they chose plankton to focus on include their ecological importance, their availability to most teachers and students, the ease with which they can be collected and observed, and the current focus of some scientific researchers on their movement and behavior. These curricular materials include a series of inquiry-based, hands-on exercises designed to be accessible to students with a range of backgrounds. Many of these materials could be adapted for use by middle-school, and/or college-level students. In this article, the authors describe sample lessons, summarize what worked well, and flag obstacles they encountered while integrating mathematics and physics into the biology classroom.

Get ur 60: A social marketing campaign to promote and facilitate physical activity among Central Texas middle school students

If allowed to continue unabated, the obesity epidemic may lead to the first decline in life expectancy in the developed world (Olshansky et al., 2005). Similar to the relationship between smoking habits in youth and adulthood, obesogenic dietary and physical activity habits in childhood may persist into adulthood (Kelder et al., 2002). Teaching children how to establish healthy eating habits and activity levels, as well as providing them the necessary resources to internalize and maintain these behaviors, may be the key to curbing this epidemic.^ A school-based obesity prevention approach is advantageous for many reasons including exposure to large captive audiences, reduced costs of sustainability and long-term maintenance, and generalizability of models and results across multiple populations. The effectiveness of school-based programs has been researched over the past 20 years, with promising results.^ Social marketing is a program-planning process that “facilitates the acceptance, rejection, modification, abandonment, or maintenance of particular behaviors” (Grier & Bryant, 2005). Social marketing has been shown to be effective in a variety of public health applications including improving diet, increasing physical activity, and preventing substance abuse. It is hypothesized that social marketing could further enhance the effectiveness of the Coordinated Approach To Child Health (CATCH) Central Texas Middle School Project, a school-based obesity prevention program.^ The development, implementation, and initial evaluation of the get ur 60 campaign, to promote the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended sixty minutes of daily activity, is described in this paper. Various components of the get ur 60 campaign were assessed to evaluate the effectiveness of the campaign during the first semester of implementation. At the end of the spring semester focus groups were held to collect student reactions to the first semester of the get ur 60 campaign.^ The initial results from the first semester of get ur 60 have demonstrated that the campaign as designed was feasible to implement, accepted at all intervention schools, and resulted in a measure of success. ^

Building an Evidence-Based Approach to Address Dating Violence Prevention

Purpose: To discuss the approach and recommendations related to the adoption of school based curriculum for violence prevention. Findings: Preliminary assessments suggest that middle and high school youth experience a variety of forms of violence in social and dating relationships. Such experiences have negative academic, behavioral and emotional consequences. Conclusions: The authors have clearly illuminated the need for addressing the phenomenon of dating violence. The field could benefit from more robust evidenced-based investigations that substantiate that interventions have an impact beyond attitudinal changes toward the behavior. Such academic endeavors will provide a platform to validate the inclusion of such information in a school based curriculum as act as a call for action for broad based interventions.

Something real: A social marketing approach to smoking prevention among Montevideo youth

Uruguay has some of the strictest tobacco-control laws in Latin America. Despite this, youth smoking rates in Uruguay are amongst the highest in South America. Thus, it is important to identify strategies to prevent youth smoking in Uruguay. The current qualitative research study sought to identify intrapersonal and socioenvironmental factors that are associated with smoking among middle school youth in Uruguay. It also sought to develop potential prevention strategies and media messages that would resonate with youth for a social media campaign. The study was grounded in social cognitive theory and the theory of reasoned action/planned behavior, among other behavioral science theories; anthropological perspectives were also considered. To achieve these goals, 29 group and individual structured interviews were conducted in two private middle schools catering to lower and higher SES youth in Montevideo, Uruguay during the summer of 2012. One hundred and three study participants, including students, parents, and teachers, were interviewed. The structured interviews were recorded, transcribed, translated, back translated, coded and analyzed. The study findings show that positive attitudes towards smoking (i.e. to be seen, to increase status, to ensure women's equality, to looking old, and to service as a rite of passage), delinquent behavior (i.e. transgression/deviant behavior), social norms that support smoking (i.e. peer pressure and modeling, group membership/sense of belonging, parental modeling, and family support), easy access and availability to tobacco (i.e. retails stores) were factors associated with youth smoking. Potential protective factors may include parental support, negative attitudes towards smoking, sports/music, and smoke-free environments. Because study participants are accustomed to government-sponsored strong countermarketing graphic imaging, study participants selected even stronger images and messages as the preferred way to receive tobacco prevention messages. Something Real ("Algo Real") was a theme that resonated with the participants and chosen as the name for the proposed campaign. This campaign was designed as a multiple component intervention that included mass, school base, and family based strategies to prevent tobacco use. Some intervention materials specific to these intervention components were developed to target relevant intrapersonal and socioenvironmental factors identified above. These materials will be tested in future pilot studies and larger scale evaluation with this population, outside the scope of this dissertation. ^