Guatemala: A Failing State?

 Guatemala is not a failed state and is unlikely to become one in the near future. Although the state currently fails to provide adequate security to its citizens or an appropriate range of effective social programs, it does supply a functioning electoral democracy, sound economic management, and a promising new antipoverty program, My Family Progresses (MIFAPRO).  Guatemala is a weak state. The principal security threats represented by expanding Mexican drug trafficking organizations (DTOs), criminal parallel powers, and urban gangs have overwhelmed the resources of the under-resourced and compromised criminal justice system. The UN-sponsored International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG), however, has demonstrated that progress against organized crime is possible.  The principal obstacles to strengthening the Guatemalan state lie in the traditional economic elite’s resistance to taxation and the venal political class’ narrow focus on short-term interests. Guatemala lacks a strong, policyoriented, mass-based political party that could develop a coherent national reform program and mobilize public support around it.  The United States should strengthen the Guatemalan state by expanding the Central America Regional Security Initiative (CARSI) and by strongly supporting CICIG, MIFAPRO, and the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE).

Latin America: Nuclear Capabilities, Intentions and Threat Perceptions

Three key states are relevant in considering future nuclear proliferation in Latin America: Argentina, Brazil, and Venezuela. Argentina and Brazil are critical because of their relatively advanced nuclear capabilities. For historical and geopolitical reasons, neither Argentina nor Brazil is likely to reactive nuclear weapons programs. Venezuela’s President, Hugo Chávez, has repeatedly demonstrated interest in developing a nuclear program, yet Venezuela lacks any serious nuclear expertise. Even if it had the managerial and technological capacity, the lead-time to develop an indigenous nuclear program would be measured in decades. Acquisition of nuclear technology from international sources would be difficult because members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group would insist on safeguards, and potential non-Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) suppliers are highly surveilled, risking the exposure of such a program before Venezuela could put a deterrent into place. While South American states have historically opposed nuclear weapons, their acquisition by Brazil and Argentina would lead to little more than diplomatic condemnation. Brazil and Argentina are both geopolitically satisfied powers that are deeply embedded in a regional security community. On the other hand, Venezuela under President Chávez is perceived as a revisionist power seeking a transformation of the international system. Venezuelan acquisition of nuclear weapons would be met with alarm by the United States and Colombia, and it would prompt nuclear weapons development by Brazil and possibly Argentina, more for reasons of preserving regional leadership and prestige than for fear of a Venezuelan threat.

Potencial de cambio en las capacidades humanas de los docentes de educación básica en la región socioeducactiva de Tuxtla Gutiérrez, Chiapas, México

La investigación que se presenta fue desarrollada dentro del campo de los estudios regionales y con visión transdisciplinar. Tuvo como objetivo deconstruir conjuntamente con los participantes, las capacidades humanas regionales de nosotros los docentes de educación básica, en nuestros procesos de reflexión entre teoría y práctica, en los que se consideraron las condicionantes estructurales, en niveles macro y micro regionales, con el alcance de haber identificado el potencial de cambio en nuestra praxis de docente como acción ante nuestros alumnos, quienes configuran el tejido social de Tuxtla Gutiérrez. Desde una perspectiva sociocrítica, se tomó como punto de fuga o núcleo la teoría crítica con fundamento filosófico en la escuela de Fráncfort y con una postura epistemológica basada en el construccionismo por la estrecha relación sujeto-objeto en el estudio; por ende se empleó la metodología investigaciónacción a través de diversas técnicas e instrumentos. Los resultados fueron concentrados en categorías que facilitaron su discusión: primeramente con el potencial de cambio, que adquirió significado mediante el desarrollo de las capacidades de reflexión y conciencia del docente; luego se presentaron las capacidades humanas, de nosotros los docentes, en las que destacaron como base de otras, las capacidades de amor, autoestima y compromiso. Posteriormente, se describió la reflexión docente sobre la concepción del beneficio personal hacia el beneficio colectivo. Finalmente, se discutió sobre la proyección de la acción docente dentro de la relación alumno y región. Se concluyó que las capacidades humanas y el potencial de cambio, deconstruidos conjuntamente con los docentes participantes, fueron la respuesta del proceso investigativo en un determinado tiempo y espacio, como posibilidades de acción docente hacia la tan deseada transformación socioeducativa regional.

The New Silk Road, a Glimpse to China's Regime?

China's Silk Road Economic Belt plan is a part of One Belt, One Road initiative that aims to create trade routes from China all the way to Europe. Despite the potential benefits, there are also problems along the way. In this research I am examining the adverse effects of one part of the Silk Road Economic Belt with my focus on Xinjiang Uyghur minority and their rights and Central Asian regional stability. Moreover, I suggest that China's past commitments in the international society as well as her actions in relations to the undertaking can give an insight into a regime where China would be the dominant power in international society. I have used qualitative analysis to study the topics. My most important methodological tools to examine the topics are as follows. I utilise conceptual analysis to borrow concepts from international relations field. I use method of situation analysis when I am describing the current circumstances in China's Xinjiang and Central Asia. Inductive analysis is the overall method since I suggest that the content I have examined could give an insight to how China regards and relates to international law in the future. Moreover, my theoretical framework of the research sees international law as a tool that a state can use to gain more power but at the same time international law restricts state's behaviour. Based on the findings of this research, in case of Xinjiang the New Silk Road is likely to worsen Uyghurs situation because of Beijing's worries and harsh actions to prevent any disturbance. However, the New Silk Road could bring stability and maintain regional security in Central Asia when the states could see it beneficial to unite for cooperation which can result with greater benefits. China's potential future regime will emphasize sovereignty and non-interference to states’ domestic matters. Moreover, there will be no room for minority rights in China's concept of human rights. Human rights are meant to protect rights of masses but are of secondary importance since development and security will be more important goals to pursue. In the field of cooperation, China is increasingly using multilateral forums to discuss the matters but reserves bilateral negotiations for executing the plans.

Clouds of Suspicion: Airspace Arrangements, Escalation, and Discord in U.S./NATO-Russian Relations

How have cooperative airspace arrangements contributed to cooperation and discord in the Euro-Atlantic region? This study analyzes the role of three sets of airspace arrangements developed by Euro-Atlantic states since the end of the Cold War—(1) cooperative aerial surveillance of military activity, (2) exchange of air situational data, and (3) joint engagement of theater air and missile threats—in political-military relations among neighbors and within the region. These arrangements provide insights into the integration of Central and Eastern European states into Western security institutions, and the current discord that centers on the conflict in Ukraine and Russia’s place in regional security. The study highlights the role of airspace incidents as contributors to conflict escalation and identifies opportunities for transparency- and confidence-building measures to improve U.S./NATO-Russian relations. The study recommends strengthening the Open Skies Treaty in order to facilitate the resolution of conflicts and improve region-wide military transparency. It notes that political-military arrangements for engaging theater air and missile threats created by NATO and Russia over the last twenty years are currently postured in a way that divides the region and inhibits mutual security. In turn, the U.S.-led Regional Airspace Initiatives that facilitated the exchange of air situational data between NATO and then-NATO-aspirants such as Poland and the Baltic states, offer a useful precedent for improving air sovereignty and promoting information sharing to reduce the fear of war among participating states. Thus, projects like NATO’s Air Situational Data Exchange and the NATO-Russia Council Cooperative Airspace Initiative—if extended to the exchange of data about military aircraft—have the potential to buttress deterrence and contribute to conflict prevention. The study concludes that documenting the evolution of airspace arrangements since the end of the Cold War contributes to understanding of the conflicting narratives put forward by Russia, the West, and the states “in-between” with respect to reasons for the current state of regional security. The long-term project of developing a zone of stable peace in the Euro-Atlantic must begin with the difficult task of building inclusive security institutions to accommodate the concerns of all regional actors.

Predicamento de seguridad yemení

Con el inicio del periodo Post-Guerra Fría el Sistema Internacional comienza a experimentar un incremento en el fortalecimiento de su componente social; la Sociedad de Estados alcanza un mayor nivel de homogenización, el estado, unidad predominante de esta, comienzan atravesar una serie de transformaciones que obedecerán a una serie de cambios y continuidades respecto al periodo anterior. Desde la perspectiva del Realismo Subalterno de las Relaciones Internacionales se destacan el proceso de construcción de estado e inserción al sistema como las variables que determinan el sentimiento de inseguridad experimentado por las elites estatales del Tercer Mundo; procesos que en el contexto de un nuevo y turbulento periodo en el sistema, tomara algunas características particulares que darán un sentido especifico al sentimiento de inseguridad y las acciones a través de las cuales las elites buscan disminuirlo. La dimensión externa del sentimiento de inseguridad, el nuevo papel que toma la resistencia popular como factor determinante del sentimiento de inseguridad y de la cooperación, así como del conflicto, entre los miembros de la Sociedad Internacional, la inserción como promotor de estrategias de construcción de Estado, son alguno de los temas puntuales, que desde la perspectiva subalterna, parecen salir a flote tras el análisis del sistema en lo que se ha considerado como el periodo Post-Guerra Fría. En este sentido Yemen, se muestra como un caso adecuado no solo para poner a prueba las postulados de la teoría subalterna, veinte años después de su obra más prominente (The third world security Predicament), escrita por M. Ayoob, sino como un caso pertinente que permite acercarse más a la comprensión del papel del Tercer Mundo al interior de la Sociedad Internacional de Estados.

Colombia como referente en la lucha contra las drogas : perspectivas de la cooperación con África Occidental

Este estudio de caso se realiza con el objetivo de analizar cómo la cooperación entre Colombia y África occidental en la lucha contra el tráfico de drogas repercute en la imagen del Estado colombiano como referente en esfuerzos antinarcóticos desde la periferia. En consecuencia, se busca conocer la forma en la cual los acuerdos bilaterales interinstitucionales, la participación en foros y la creación de una agenda internacional de lucha contra las drogas para un escenario nacional transformado, configuran la imagen del Estado colombiano. Para tal objetivo, el trabajo se desarrollará a través de los conceptos de identidad de Alexander Wendt, periferia de Mohammed Ayoob y Cooperación Sur-Sur de la Organización de Naciones Unidas y la Agencia Presidencial de Cooperación Internacional de Colombia.

Multi-agent simulation of continental, regional, and micro electricity markets

Renewable based power generation has significantly increased over the last years. However, this process has evolved separately from electricity markets, leading to an inadequacy of the present market models to cope with huge quantities of renewable energy resources, and to take full advantage of the presently existing and the increasing envisaged renewable based and distributed energy resources. This paper proposes the modelling of electricity markets at several levels (continental, regional and micro), taking into account the specific characteristics of the players and resources involved in each level and ensuring that the proposed models accommodate adequate business models able to support the contribution of all the resources in the system, from the largest to the smaller ones. The proposed market models are integrated in MASCEM (Multi- Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets), using the multi agent approach advantages for overcoming the current inadequacy and significant limitations of the presently existing electricity market simulators to deal with the complex electricity market models that must be adopted.

Exploiting Mn(III)/EDTA complex in a flow system with solenoid micro-pumps coupled to long pathlength spectrophotometry for fast manganese determination

The formation of the Mn(III)/EDTA complex in a flow system with solenoid micro-pumps was exploited for fast manganese determination in freshwater. Manganese(II) was oxidized in a solid-phase reactor containing lead dioxide immobilized on polyester. Long pathlength spectrophotometry was exploited to increase sensitivity, aiming to reach the threshold limit established by environmental legislation. A linear response was observed from 25 to 1500 mu g L(-1), with a detection limit of 6 mu g L(-1) (99.7% confidence level). Sample throughput and coefficient of variation were 36 samples/h and 2.6% (n = 10), respectively. EDTA consumption and waste generation were estimated as 500 mu g and 3 mL per determination, respectively. The amount of Pb in the residue corresponds to 250 mu g per determination and a solid-phase reactor could be used for up to 1600 determinations. Adsorption in active charcoal avoided interferences caused by organic matter and the developed procedure was successfully applied for determination of manganese in freshwater samples. Results were in agreement with those attained by GFAAS at the 95% confidence level. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation Is Efficacious as an Add-On to Pharmacological Therapy in Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS) Type I

Single session repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) of the motor cortex (M1) is effective in the treatment of chronic pain patients but the analgesic effect of repeated sessions is still unknown We evaluated the effects of rTMS in patients with refractory pain due to complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) type I Twenty three patients presenting CRPS type I of 1 upper limb were treated with the best medical treatment (analgesics and adjuvant medications physical therapy) plus 10 daily sessions of either real (r) or sham (s) 10Hz rTMS to the motor cortex (M1) Patients were assessed daily and after 1 week and 3 months after the last session using the Visual Analogical Scale (VAS) the McGill Pain Questionnaire (MPQ) the Health Survey 36 (SF 36) and the Hamilton Depression (HDRS) During treatment there was a significant reduction in the VAS scores favoring the r rTMS group mean reduction of 4 65 cm (50 9%) against 2 18 cm (24 7%) in the s rTMS group The highest reduction occurred at the tenth session and correlated to improvement in the affective and emotional subscores of the MPQ and SF 36 Real rTMS to the M1 produced analgesic effects and positive changes in affective aspects of pain in CRPS patients during the period of stimulation Perspective This study shows an efficacy of repetitive sessions of high frequency rTMS as an add on therapy to refractory CAPS type I patients It had a positive effect in different aspects of pain (sensory discriminative and emotional affective) It opens the perspective for the clinical use of this technique (C) 2010 by the American Pain Society

Pain Relief and Functional Recovery in Patients with Complex Regional Pain Syndrome after Motor Cortex Stimulation

In addition to pain and neurovegetative symptoms, patients with severe forms of complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) develop a broad range of symptoms, including sensory disturbances, motor impairment and dystonic posturing. While most patients respond to medical therapy, some are considered refractory and become surgical candidates. To date, the most commonly used surgical procedure for CRPS has been spinal cord stimulation. This therapy often leads to important analgesic effects, but no sensory or motor improvements. We report on 2 patients with pain related to CRPS and severe functional deficits treated with motor cortex stimulation (MCS) who not only had significant analgesic effects, but also improvements in sensory and motor symptoms. In the long term (27 and 36 months after surgery), visual analog scale pain scores were improved by 60-70% as compared to baseline. There was also a significant increase in the range of motion in the joints of the affected limbs and an improvement in allodynia, hyperpathia and hypoesthesia. Positron emission tomography scan in both subjects revealed that MCS influenced regions involved in the circuitry of pain. Copyright (C) 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel

Análise da viabilidade económica da implementação de uma central de micro-cogeração no setor da agropecuária

O crescente aumento do consumo energético das sociedades desenvolvidas e emergentes, motivado pelo progresso económico e social, tem induzido a procura de alternativas focalizadas nas energias renováveis, que possam contribuir para assegurar o fornecimento de energia sem agravar o consumo de combustíveis fósseis e a emissão de gases com efeito de estufa. Nesse sentido, a produção de energia eléctrica a partir do gás metano resultante da estabilização anaeróbia de efluentes tem vindo a ser estudada e praticada desde finais do século XIX, tendo assumido maior expressão a partir dos anos 70 do século XX, na sequência das primeiras crises petrolíferas. As instalações agropecuárias reúnem dois fatores chave para o sucesso do aproveitamento energético do biogás produzido no tratamento dos efluentes: por um lado, produzem matéria-prima com potencial energético – dejeto animal com um potencial enorme de criação de biogás quando procedido de tratamento anaeróbio - e, por outro, necessitam de energia eléctrica para o funcionamento dos equipamentos electromecânicos e de calor para a manutenção das instalações. A valorização energética do biogás produzido na estabilização anaeróbia dos efluentes agro-pecuários, para além de permitir obter um retorno financeiro, que contribui para o equilíbrio dos custos de investimento e de exploração, contribui igualmente para a redução das emissões de gases com efeito de estufa, como o dióxido de carbono e o metano, e para a segurança de abastecimento energético à instalação, na medida em que assegura a alimentação de energia eléctrica em caso de falha no fornecimento pela rede nacional. A presente dissertação apresenta um contributo para estudos a desenvolver por proprietários de agropecuárias, cooperativas regionais do setor da agropecuária, empresas de projecto e estudantes de Engenharia, constituído por uma compilação da informação mais relevante associada à estabilização anaeróbia de efluentes e à valorização energética do biogás produzido. Com base em informação referente ao número real de animais existentes em Portugal, este trabalho pretende fazer ver a essas entidades que o aproveitamento energético do biogás é viável e útil para o país. Com a criação de uma aplicação informática de análise económica de investimento, provar que o investimento em pequenas propriedades, com apenas 80 cabeças normais, pode obter um retorno financeiro razoável, com um prazo de recuperação do investimento bastante baixo, aproveitando um recurso que caso contrário será desperdiçado e poluirá o ambiente.