Water scarcity and climate change impact and vulnerability in irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean river basins

Actualmente, la escasez de agua constituye un importante problema en muchos lugares del mundo. El crecimiento de la población, la creciente necesidad de alimentos, el desarrollo socio-económico y el cambio climático ejercen una importante y cada vez mayor presión sobre los recursos hídricos, a la que muchos países van a tener que enfrentarse en los próximos anos. La región Mediterránea es una de las regiones del mundo de mayor escasez de recursos hídricos, y es además una de las zonas más vulnerables al cambio climático. La mayoría de estudios sobre cambio climático prevén mayores temperaturas y una disminución de las precipitaciones, y una creciente escasez de agua debida a la disminución de recursos disponibles y al aumento de las demandas de riego. En el contexto actual de desarrollo de políticas se demanda cada vez más una mayor consideración del cambio climático en el marco de las políticas sectoriales. Sin embargo, los estudios enfocados a un solo sector no reflejan las múltiples dimensiones del los efectos del cambio climático. Numerosos estudios científicos han demostrado que el cambio climático es un fenómeno de naturaleza multi-dimensional y cuyos efectos se transmiten a múltiples escalas. Por tanto, es necesaria la producción de estudios y herramientas de análisis capaces de reflejar todas estas dimensiones y que contribuyan a la elaboración de políticas robustas en un contexto de cambio climático. Esta investigación pretende aportar una visión global de la problemática de la escasez de agua y los impactos, la vulnerabilidad y la adaptación al cambio climático en el contexto de la región mediterránea. La investigación presenta un marco integrado de modelización que se va ampliando progresivamente en un proceso secuencial y multi-escalar en el que en cada etapa se incorpora una nueva dimensión. La investigación consta de cuatro etapas que se abordan a lo largo de cuatro capítulos. En primer lugar, se estudia la vulnerabilidad económica de las explotaciones de regadío del Medio Guadiana, en España. Para ello, se utiliza un modelo de programación matemática en combinación con un modelo econométrico. A continuación, en la segunda etapa, se utiliza un modelo hidro-económico que incluye un modelo de cultivo para analizar los procesos que tienen lugar a escala de cultivo, explotación y cuenca teniendo en cuenta distintas escalas geográficas y de toma de decisiones. Esta herramienta permite el análisis de escenarios de cambio climático y la evaluación de posibles medidas de adaptación. La tercera fase consiste en el análisis de las barreras que dificultan la aplicación de procesos de adaptación para lo cual se analizan las redes socio-institucionales en la cuenca. Finalmente, la cuarta etapa aporta una visión sobre la escasez de agua y el cambio climático a escala nacional y regional mediante el estudio de distintos escenarios de futuro plausibles y los posibles efectos de las políticas en la escasez de agua. Para este análisis se utiliza un modelo econométrico de datos de panel para la región mediterránea y un modelo hidro-económico que se aplica a los casos de estudio de España y Jordania. Los resultados del estudio ponen de relieve la importancia de considerar múltiples escalas y múltiples dimensiones en el estudio de la gestión de los recursos hídricos y la adaptación al cambio climático en los contextos mediterráneos de escasez de agua estudiados. Los resultados muestran que los impactos del cambio climático en la cuenca del Guadiana y en el conjunto de España pueden comprometer la sostenibilidad del regadío y de los ecosistemas. El análisis a escala de cuenca hidrográfica resalta la importancia de las interacciones entre los distintos usuarios del agua y en concreto entre distintas comunidades de regantes, así como la necesidad de fortalecer el papel de las instituciones y de fomentar la creación de una visión común en la cuenca para facilitar la aplicación de los procesos de adaptación. Asimismo, los resultados de este trabajo evidencian también la capacidad y el papel fundamental de las políticas para lograr un desarrollo sostenible y la adaptación al cambio climático es regiones de escasez de agua tales como la región mediterránea. Especialmente, este trabajo pone de manifiesto el potencial de la Directiva Marco del Agua de la Unión Europea para lograr una efectiva adaptación al cambio climático. Sin embargo, en Jordania, además de la adaptación al cambio climático, es preciso diseñar estrategias de desarrollo sostenible más ambiciosas que contribuyan a reducir el riesgo futuro de escasez de agua. ABSTRACT Water scarcity is becoming a major concern in many parts of the world. Population growth, increasing needs for food production, socio-economic development and climate change represent pressures on water resources that many countries around the world will have to deal in the coming years. The Mediterranean region is one of the most water scarce regions of the world and is considered a climate change hotspot. Most projections of climate change envisage an increase in temperatures and a decrease in precipitation and a resulting reduction in water resources availability as a consequence of both reduced water availability and increased irrigation demands. Current policy development processes require the integration of climate change concerns into sectoral policies. However, sector-oriented studies often fail to address all the dimensions of climate change implications. Climate change research in the last years has evidenced the need for more integrated studies and methodologies that are capable of addressing the multi-scale and multi-dimensional nature of climate change. This research attempts to provide a comprehensive view of water scarcity and climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in Mediterranean contexts. It presents an integrated modelling framework that is progressively enlarged in a sequential multi-scale process in which a new dimension of climate change and water resources is addressed at every stage. It is comprised of four stages, each one explained in a different chapter. The first stage explores farm-level economic vulnerability in the Spanish Guadiana basin using a mathematical programming model in combination with an econometric model. Then, in a second stage, the use of a hydro-economic modelling framework that includes a crop growth model allows for the analysis of crop, farm and basin level processes taking into account different geographical and decision-making scales. This integrated tool is used for the analysis of climate change scenarios and for the assessment of potential adaptation options. The third stage includes the analysis of barriers to the effective implementation of adaptation processes based on socioinstitutional network analysis. Finally, a regional and country level perspective of water scarcity and climate change is provided focusing on different possible socio-economic development pathways and the effect of policies on future water scarcity. For this analysis, a panel-data econometric model and a hydro-economic model are applied for the analysis of the Mediterranean region and country level case studies in Spain and Jordan. The overall results of the study demonstrate the value of considering multiple scales and multiple dimensions in water management and climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean water scarce contexts analysed. Results show that climate change impacts in the Guadiana basin and in Spain may compromise the sustainability of irrigation systems and ecosystems. The analysis at the basin level highlights the prominent role of interactions between different water users and irrigation districts and the need to strengthen institutional capacity and common understanding in the basin to enhance the implementation of adaptation processes. The results of this research also illustrate the relevance of water policies in achieving sustainable development and climate change adaptation in water scarce areas such as the Mediterranean region. Specifically, the EU Water Framework Directive emerges as a powerful trigger for climate change adaptation. However, in Jordan, outreaching sustainable development strategies are required in addition to climate change adaptation to reduce future risk of water scarcity.

Modeling and optimization of frequencies on congested bus lines

In this paper some mathematical programming models are exposed in order to set the number of services on a specified system of bus lines, which are intended to assist high demand levels which may arise because of the disruption of Rapid Transit services or during the celebration of massive events. By means of this model two types of basic magnitudes can be determined, basically: a) the number of bus units assigned to each line and b) the number of services that should be assigned to those units. In these models, passenger flow assignment to lines can be considered of the system optimum type, in the sense that the assignment of units and of services is carried out minimizing a linear combination of operation costs and total travel time of users. The models consider delays experienced by buses as a consequence of the get in/out of the passengers, queueing at stations and the delays that passengers experience waiting at the stations. For the case of a congested strategy based user optimal passenger assignment model with strict capacities on the bus lines, the use of the method of successive averages is shown.

A model for setting services on auxiliary bus lines under congestion

In this paper, a mathematical programming model and a heuristically derived solution is described to assist with the efficient planning of services for a set of auxiliary bus lines (a bus-bridging system) during disruptions of metro and rapid transit lines. The model can be considered static and takes into account the average flows of passengers over a given period of time (i.e., the peak morning traffic hour) Auxiliary bus services must accommodate very high demand levels, and the model presented is able to take into account the operation of a bus-bridging system under congested conditions. A general analysis of the congestion in public transportation lines is presented, and the results are applied to the design of a bus-bridging system. A nonlinear integer mathematical programming model and a suitable approximation of this model are then formulated. This approximated model can be solved by a heuristic procedure that has been shown to be computationally viable. The output of the model is as follows: (a) the number of bus units to assign to each of the candidate lines of the bus-bridging system; (b) the routes to be followed by users passengers of each of the origin–destination pairs; (c) the operational conditions of the components of the bus-bridging system, including the passenger load of each of the line segments, the degree of saturation of the bus stops relative to their bus input flows, the bus service times at bus stops and the passenger waiting times at bus stops. The model is able to take into account bounds with regard to the maximum number of passengers waiting at bus stops and the space available at bus stops for the queueing of bus units. This paper demonstrates the applicability of the model with two realistic test cases: a railway corridor in Madrid and a metro line in Barcelona Planificación de los servicios de lineas auxiliares de autobuses durante las incidencias de las redes de metro y cercanías. El modelo estudia el problema bajo condiciones de alta demanda y condiciones de congestión. El modelo no lineal resultante es resuelto mediante heurísticas que demuestran su utilidad. Se demuestran los resultados en dos corredores de las ciudades de Barcelona y Madrid.

Optimization of water procurement decisions in an irrigation district: the role of option contracts

Water supply instability is one of the main risks faced by irrigation districts and farmers. Water procurement decision optimisation is essential in order to increase supply reliability and reduce costs. Water markets, such as spot purchases or water supply option contracts, can make this decision process more flexible. We analyse the potential interest in an option contract for an irrigation district that has access to several water sources. We apply a stochastic recursive mathematical programming model to simulate the water procurement decisions of an irrigation district?s board operating in a context of water supply uncertainty in south-eastern Spain. We analyse what role different option contracts could play in securing its water supply. Results suggest that the irrigation district would be willing to accept the proposed option contract in most cases subject to realistic values of the option contract financial terms. Of nine different water sources, desalination and the option contract are the main substitutes, where the use of either depends on the contract parameters. The contract premium and optioned volume are the variables that have a greater impact on the irrigation district?s decisions. Key words: Segura Basin, stochastic recursive programming, water markets, water supply option contract, water supply risk.

Determining departure times in dynamic and stochastic maritime routing and scheduling problem

In maritime transportation, decisions are made in a dynamic setting where many aspects of the future are uncertain. However, most academic literature on maritime transportation considers static and deterministic routing and scheduling problems. This work addresses a gap in the literature on dynamic and stochastic maritime routing and scheduling problems, by focusing on the scheduling of departure times. Five simple strategies for setting departure times are considered, as well as a more advanced strategy which involves solving a mixed integer mathematical programming problem. The latter strategy is significantly better than the other methods, while adding only a small computational effort.

Retrofit of heat exchanger networks with pressure recovery of process streams at sub-ambient conditions

This paper presents a new mathematical programming model for the retrofit of heat exchanger networks (HENs), wherein the pressure recovery of process streams is conducted to enhance heat integration. Particularly applied to cryogenic processes, HENs retrofit with combined heat and work integration is mainly aimed at reducing the use of expensive cold services. The proposed multi-stage superstructure allows the increment of the existing heat transfer area, as well as the use of new equipment for both heat exchange and pressure manipulation. The pressure recovery of streams is carried out simultaneously with the HEN design, such that the process conditions (streams pressure and temperature) are variables of optimization. The mathematical model is formulated using generalized disjunctive programming (GDP) and is optimized via mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP), through the minimization of the retrofit total annualized cost, considering the turbine and compressor coupling with a helper motor. Three case studies are performed to assess the accuracy of the developed approach, including a real industrial example related to liquefied natural gas (LNG) production. The results show that the pressure recovery of streams is efficient for energy savings and, consequently, for decreasing the HEN retrofit total cost especially in sub-ambient processes.

Simulation of Land Use and Investment Behaviour under Different Policy Scenarios: Results of the extended farm/household model. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 27, July 2012

Factor markets are a central issue in analyses of farm development and of agricultural sector vitality. Among the different production factors, land is one of the most studied. Several studies seek to estimate the effect of government policy payments on land value or land rental prices. The studies mostly agree that government payments and other types of policy support are significant in explaining land prices and account for a large share of them. In October 2011, the European Commission published a new policy proposal for the common agricultural policy (CAP) up to 2020. The proposed regulation includes a shift from historical to regional payments. The objective of this paper is to provide an ex ante analysis of the impact of the new CAP policy instruments on the land market. In particular, the effect of the regionalisation of payments in Italy is examined. The analysis is based on the use of a mathematical programming model to simulate the changes in land demand for a farm in Emilia Romagna. The results highlight the relevance of the new policy mechanism in determining a change in land demand. Yet the effect is highly dependent on initial ownership of entitlements under the historical payment scheme.

Farm/Household-Level Simulation: Results of Testing Policy and Other Scenarios. Factor Markets Working Document No. 54, June 2013

Among the different production factors, land is the one that most often limits farm development and one of the most studied. The connection between policy and other context variables and land markets is at the core of the policy debate, including the present reform of the Common Agricultural Policy. The proposal of the latter has been published in October 2011 and in Italy it will include the switch of the payment regime from an historical to a regional basis. The authors’ objective is to simulate the impact of the proposed policy reform on the land market, particularly on land values and propensity to transaction. They combine insights and data from a farm household investment model revised and extended in order to simulate the demand curve for land in different policy scenarios and a survey of farmers stated intention carried out in the province of Bologna (Italy) in 2012. Based on these results, the authors calibrate a mathematical programming model of land market exchanges for the province of Bologna and use this model form simulation. The results of the model largely corroborate the results from the survey and both hint at a relevant reaction of the land demand and supply to the shift from the historical to the regionalised payments. As effect, the regionalisation would result in increased rental prices and in a tendency to the re-allocation of land.

Optimization and Machine Learning Frameworks for Complex Network Analysis

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Optimising profitability and environmental trade-offs in managing cropping systems using differential evolution

Whilst traditional optimisation techniques based on mathematical programming techniques are in common use, they suffer from their inability to explore the complexity of decision problems addressed using agricultural system models. In these models, the full decision space is usually very large while the solution space is characterized by many local optima. Methods to search such large decision spaces rely on effective sampling of the problem domain. Nevertheless, problem reduction based on insight into agronomic relations and farming practice is necessary to safeguard computational feasibility. Here, we present a global search approach based on an Evolutionary Algorithm (EA). We introduce a multi-objective evaluation technique within this EA framework, linking the optimisation procedure to the APSIM cropping systems model. The approach addresses the issue of system management when faced with a trade-off between economic and ecological consequences.

Impact of liberalization on efficiency and productivity of sugar industry in Kenya

Purpose – The data used in this study is for the period 1980-2000. Almost midway through this period (in 1992), the Kenyan government liberalized the sugar industry and the role of the market increased, while the government's role with respect to control of prices, imports and other aspects in the sector declined. This exposed the local sugar manufacturers to external competition from other sugar producers, especially from the COMESA region. This study aims to find whether there were any changes in efficiency of production between the two periods (pre and post-liberalization). Design/methodology/approach – The study utilized two methodologies to efficiency estimation: data envelopment analysis (DEA) and the stochastic frontier. DEA uses mathematical programming techniques and does not impose any functional form on the data. However, it attributes all deviation from the mean function to inefficiencies. The stochastic frontier utilizes econometric techniques. Findings – The test for structural differences in the two periods does not show any statistically significant differences between the two periods. However, both methodologies show a decline in efficiency levels from 1992, with the lowest period experienced in 1998. From then on, efficiency levels began to increase. Originality/value – To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first paper to use both methodologies in the sugar industry in Kenya. It is shown that in industries where the noise (error) term is minimal (such as manufacturing), the DEA and stochastic frontier give similar results.

Integrated analytic hierarchy process and its applications:a literature review

Due to its wide applicability and ease of use, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been studied extensively for the last 20 years. Recently, it is observed that the focus has been confined to the applications of the integrated AHPs rather than the stand-alone AHP. The five tools that commonly combined with the AHP include mathematical programming, quality function deployment (QFD), meta-heuristics, SWOT analysis, and data envelopment analysis (DEA). This paper reviews the literature of the applications of the integrated AHPs. Related articles appearing in the international journals from 1997 to 2006 are gathered and analyzed so that the following three questions can be answered: (i) which type of the integrated AHPs was paid most attention to? (ii) which area the integrated AHPs were prevalently applied to? (iii) is there any inadequacy of the approaches? Based on the inadequacy, if any, some improvements and possible future work are recommended. This research not only provides evidence that the integrated AHPs are better than the stand-alone AHP, but also aids the researchers and decision makers in applying the integrated AHPs effectively.

A cost Malmquist productivity index

This paper develops a productivity index applicable when producers are cost minimisers and input prices are known. The index is inspired by the Malmquist index as extended to productivity measurement. The index developed here is defined in terms of input cost rather than input quantity distance functions. Hence, productivity change is decomposed into overall efficiency and cost technical change. Furthermore, overall efficiency change is decomposed into technical and allocative efficiency change and cost technical change into a part capturing shifts of input quantities and shifts of relative input prices. These decompositions provide a clearer picture of the root sources of productivity change. They are illustrated here in a sample of hospitals; results are computed using non-parametric mathematical programming. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the solution of a class of capital investment problems

In this work the solution of a class of capital investment problems is considered within the framework of mathematical programming. Upon the basis of the net present value criterion, the problems in question are mainly characterized by the fact that the cost of capital is defined as a non-decreasing function of the investment requirements. Capital rationing and some cases of technological dependence are also included, this approach leading to zero-one non-linear programming problems, for which specifically designed solution procedures supported by a general branch and bound development are presented. In the context of both this development and the relevant mathematical properties of the previously mentioned zero-one programs, a generalized zero-one model is also discussed. Finally,a variant of the scheme, connected with the search sequencing of optimal solutions, is presented as an alternative in which reduced storage limitations are encountered.

Introduction : the role of quality, production and technological innovation in improving competitive performance

Quality, production and technological innovation management rank among the most important matters of concern to modern manufacturing organisations. They can provide companies with the decisive means of gaining a competitive advantage, especially within industries where there is an increasing similarity in product design and manufacturing processes. The papers in this special issue of International Journal of Technology Management have all been selected as examples of how aspects of quality, production and technological innovation can help to improve competitive performance. Most are based on presentations made at the UK Operations Management Association's Sixth International Conference held at Aston University at which the theme was 'Getting Ahead Through Technology and People'. At the conference itself over 80 papers were presented by authors from 15 countries around the world. Among the many topics addressed within the conference theme, technological innovation, quality and production management emerged as attracting the greatest concern and interest of delegates, particularly those from industry. For any new initiative to be implemented successfully, it should be led from the top of the organization. Achieving the desired level of commitment from top management can, however, be a difficulty. In the first paper of this issue, Mackness investigates this question by explaining how systems thinking can help. In the systems approach, properties such as 'emergence', 'hierarchy', 'commnication' and 'control' are used to assist top managers in preparing for change. Mackness's paper is then complemented by Iijima and Hasegawa's contribution in which they investigate the development of Quality Information Management (QIM) in Japan. They present the idea of a Design Review and demonstrate how it can be used to trace and reduce quality-related losses. The next paper on the subject of quality is by Whittle and colleagues. It relates to total quality and the process of culture change within organisations. Using the findings of investigations carried out in a number of case study companies, they describe four generic models which have been identified as characterising methods of implementing total quality within existing organisation cultures. Boaden and Dale's paper also relates to the management of quality, but looks specifically at the construction industry where it has been found there is still some confusion over the role of Quality Assurance (QA) and Total Quality Management (TQM). They describe the results of a questionnaire survey of forty companies in the industry and compare them to similar work carried out in other industries. Szakonyi's contribution then completes this group of papers which all relate specifically to the question of quality. His concern is with the two ways in which R&D or engineering managers can work on improving quality. The first is by improving it in the laboratory, while the second is by working with other functions to improve quality in the company. The next group of papers in this issue all address aspects of production management. Umeda's paper proposes a new manufacturing-oriented simulation package for production management which provides important information for both design and operation of manufacturing systems. A simulation for production strategy in a Computer Integrated Manufacturing (CIM) environment is also discussed. This paper is then followed by a contribution by Tanaka and colleagues in which they consider loading schedules for manufacturing orders in a Material Requirements Planning (MRP) environment. They compare mathematical programming with a knowledge-based approach, and comment on their relative effectiveness for different practical situations. Engstrom and Medbo's paper then looks at a particular aspect of production system design, namely the question of devising group working arrangements for assembly with new product structures. Using the case of a Swedish vehicle assembly plant where long cycle assembly work has been adopted, they advocate the use of a generally applicable product structure which can be adapted to suit individual local conditions. In the last paper of this particular group, Tay considers how automation has affected the production efficiency in Singapore. Using data from ten major industries he identifies several factors which are positively correlated with efficiency, with capital intensity being of greatest interest to policy makers. The two following papers examine the case of electronic data interchange (EDI) as a means of improving the efficiency and quality of trading relationships. Banerjee and Banerjee consider a particular approach to material provisioning for production systems using orderless inventory replenishment. Using the example of a single supplier and multiple buyers they develop an analytical model which is applicable for the exchange of information between trading partners using EDI. They conclude that EDI-based inventory control can be attractive from economic as well as other standpoints and that the approach is consistent with and can be instrumental in moving towards just-in-time (JIT) inventory management. Slacker's complementary viewpoint on EDI is from the perspective of the quality relation-ship between the customer and supplier. Based on the experience of Lucas, a supplier within the automotive industry, he concludes that both banks and trading companies must take responsibility for the development of payment mechanisms which satisfy the requirements of quality trading. The three final papers of this issue relate to technological innovation and are all country based. Berman and Khalil report on a survey of US technological effectiveness in the global economy. The importance of education is supported in their conclusions, although it remains unclear to what extent the US government can play a wider role in promoting technological innovation and new industries. The role of technology in national development is taken up by Martinsons and Valdemars who examine the case of the former Soviet Union. The failure to successfully infuse technology into Soviet enterprises is seen as a factor in that country's demise, and it is anticipated that the newly liberalised economies will be able to encourage greater technological creativity. This point is then taken up in Perminov's concluding paper which looks in detail at Russia. Here a similar analysis is made of the concluding paper which looks in detail at Russia. Here a similar analysis is made of the Soviet Union's technological decline, but a development strategy is also presented within the context of the change from a centralised to a free market economy. The papers included in this special issue of the International Journal of Technology Management each represent a unique and particular contribution to their own specific area of concern. Together, however, they also argue or demonstrate the general improvements in competitive performance that can be achieved through the application of modern principles and practice to the management of quality, production and technological innovation.