Mechanisms of long-term modulation of synaptic transmission in crayfish

Please consult the paper edition of this thesis to read. It is available on the 5th Floor of the Library at Call Number: Z 9999 B56 M68 2007

Sampling the soil in long-term forest plots: The implications of spatial variation

Long-term monitoring of forest soils as part of a pan-European network to detect environmental change depends on an accurate determination of the mean of the soil properties at each monitoring event. Forest soil is known to be very variable spatially, however. A study was undertaken to explore and quantify this variability at three forest monitoring plots in Britain. Detailed soil sampling was carried out, and the data from the chemical analyses were analysed by classical statistics and geostatistics. An analysis of variance showed that there were no consistent effects from the sample sites in relation to the position of the trees. The variogram analysis showed that there was spatial dependence at each site for several variables and some varied in an apparently periodic way. An optimal sampling analysis based on the multivariate variogram for each site suggested that a bulked sample from 36 cores would reduce error to an acceptable level. Future sampling should be designed so that it neither targets nor avoids trees and disturbed ground. This can be achieved best by using a stratified random sampling design.

Evidence for long-term regional changes in precipitation on the East Coast Mountains in Mauritius

Global climate change and its impacts are being increasingly studied and precipitation trends are one of the measures of quantifying climate change especially in the tropics. This study uses daily rainfall data to determine if there are changes in the long-term trends in rainfall variability in the East Coast Mountains of Mauritius during the last few decades, and to investigate the factors influencing the trends in the inter-annual to inter-decadal rainfall variability. Statistical modelling has been used to investigate the trends in total seasonal rainfall, the number of rain days and the mean amount of rain per rainy days and the local, regional and large-scale factors that affect them on inter-annual to inter-decadal time scales. The strongest inter-decadal trend was found in the number of rain days for both rainfall seasons, and the other variables were found to have weak or insignificant trends. Both local factors, such as the surrounding sea surface temperatures and large-scale phenomena such as Indian Monsoon and the El Niño Southern Oscillation were found to influence rainfall patterns.

Describing long-term trends in precipitation using generalized additive models

With the current concern over climate change, descriptions of how rainfall patterns are changing over time can be useful. Observations of daily rainfall data over the last few decades provide information on these trends. Generalized linear models are typically used to model patterns in the occurrence and intensity of rainfall. These models describe rainfall patterns for an average year but are more limited when describing long-term trends, particularly when these are potentially non-linear. Generalized additive models (GAMS) provide a framework for modelling non-linear relationships by fitting smooth functions to the data. This paper describes how GAMS can extend the flexibility of models to describe seasonal patterns and long-term trends in the occurrence and intensity of daily rainfall using data from Mauritius from 1962 to 2001. Smoothed estimates from the models provide useful graphical descriptions of changing rainfall patterns over the last 40 years at this location. GAMS are particularly helpful when exploring non-linear relationships in the data. Care is needed to ensure the choice of smooth functions is appropriate for the data and modelling objectives. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The importance of the relationship between scale and process in understanding long-term DOC dynamics

Concentrations of dissolved organic carbon have increased in many, but not all, surface waters across acid impacted areas of Europe and North America over the last two decades. Over the last eight years several hypotheses have been put forward to explain these increases, but none are yet accepted universally. Research in this area appears to have reached a stalemate between those favouring declining atmospheric deposition, climate change or land management as the key driver of long-term DOC trends. While it is clear that many of these factors influence DOC dynamics in soil and stream waters, their effect varies over different temporal and spatial scales. We argue that regional differences in acid deposition loading may account for the apparent discrepancies between studies. DOC has shown strong monotonic increases in areas which have experienced strong downward trends in pollutant sulphur and/or seasalt deposition. Elsewhere climatic factors, that strongly influence seasonality, have also dominated inter-annual variability, and here long-term monotonic DOC trends are often difficult to detect. Furthermore, in areas receiving similar acid loadings, different catchment characteristics could have affected the site specific sensitivity to changes in acidity and therefore the magnitude of DOC release in response to changes in sulphur deposition. We suggest that confusion over these temporal and spatial scales of investigation has contributed unnecessarily to the disagreement over the main regional driver(s) of DOC trends, and that the data behind the majority of these studies is more compatible than is often conveyed.

Model inter-comparison between statistical and dynamic model assessments of the long-term stability of blanket peat in Great Britain (1940-2099)

We compared output from 3 dynamic process-based models (DMs: ECOSSE, MILLENNIA and the Durham Carbon Model) and 9 bioclimatic envelope models (BCEMs; including BBOG ensemble and PEATSTASH) ranging from simple threshold to semi-process-based models. Model simulations were run at 4 British peatland sites using historical climate data and climate projections under a medium (A1B) emissions scenario from the 11-RCM (regional climate model) ensemble underpinning UKCP09. The models showed that blanket peatlands are vulnerable to projected climate change; however, predictions varied between models as well as between sites. All BCEMs predicted a shift from presence to absence of a climate associated with blanket peat, where the sites with the lowest total annual precipitation were closest to the presence/absence threshold. DMs showed a more variable response. ECOSSE predicted a decline in net C sink and shift to net C source by the end of this century. The Durham Carbon Model predicted a smaller decline in the net C sink strength, but no shift to net C source. MILLENNIA predicted a slight overall increase in the net C sink. In contrast to the BCEM projections, the DMs predicted that the sites with coolest temperatures and greatest total annual precipitation showed the largest change in carbon sinks. In this model inter-comparison, the greatest variation in model output in response to climate change projections was not between the BCEMs and DMs but between the DMs themselves, because of different approaches to modelling soil organic matter pools and decomposition amongst other processes. The difference in the sign of the response has major implications for future climate feedbacks, climate policy and peatland management. Enhanced data collection, in particular monitoring peatland response to current change, would significantly improve model development and projections of future change.

Long-term variations in the open solar flux and possible links to Earth’s climate

Recent paleoclimate studies provide strong evidence for an association between cosmogenic isotope production and Earth’s climate throughout the holecene. These isotopes are generated by the bombardment of Earth’s atmosphere by galactic cosmic rays, the fluxes of which vary in approximately inverse proportion to the total open magnetic flux of the Sun. This paper discusses how results from the Ulysses spacecraft allow us to quantify the open solar flux from observations of near-Earth interplanetary space and to study its long-term variations using the homogeneous record of geomagnetic activity. A study of the results and of their accuracy is presented. The two proposed mechanisms that could lead to the open solar flux being a good proxy for solar-induced climate change are discussed: the first is the modulation of the production of some types of cloud by the air ions produced by cosmic rays; the second is a variation in the total or spectral solar irradiance, in association with changes in the open flux. Some implications for our understanding of anthropogenic climate change are discussed.

Long-term variations in the magnetic fields of the Sun and the heliosphere: their origin, effects, and implications

Recent studies of the variation of geomagnetic activity over the past 140 years have quantified the "coronal source" magnetic flux F-s that leaves the solar atmosphere and enters the heliosphere and have shown that it has risen, on average, by an estimated 34% since 1963 and by 140% since 1900. This variation of open solar flux has been reproduced by Solanki et al. [2000] using a model which demonstrates how the open flux accumulates and decays, depending on the rate of flux emergence in active regions and on the length of the solar cycle. We here use a new technique to evaluate solar cycle length and find that it does vary in association with the rate of change of F-s in the way predicted. The long-term variation of the rate of flux emergence is found to be very similar in form to that in F-s, which may offer a potential explanation of why F-s appears to be a useful proxy for extrapolating solar total irradiance back in time. We also find that most of the variation of cosmic ray fluxes incident on Earth is explained by the strength of the heliospheric field (quantified by F-s) and use observations of the abundance of the isotope Be-10 (produced by cosmic rays and deposited in ice sheets) to study the decrease in F-s during the Maunder minimum. The interior motions at the base of the convection zone, where the solar dynamo is probably located, have recently been revealed using the helioseismology technique and found to exhibit a 1.3-year oscillation. This periodicity is here reported in observations of the interplanetary magnetic field and geomagnetic activity but is only present after 1940, When present, it shows a strong 22-year variation, peaking near the maximum of even-numbered sunspot cycles and showing minima at the peaks of odd-numbered cycles. We discuss the implications of these long-term solar and heliospheric variations for Earth's environment.

Long-term changes to the frequency of occurrence of British moths are consistent with opposing and synergistic effects of climate and land-use changes

1. Species’ distributions are likely to be affected by a combination of environmental drivers. We used a data set of 11 million species occurrence records over the period 1970–2010 to assess changes in the frequency of occurrence of 673 macro-moth species in Great Britain. Groups of species with different predicted sensitivities showed divergent trends, which we interpret in the context of land-use and climatic changes. 2. A diversity of responses was revealed: 260 moth species declined significantly, whereas 160 increased significantly. Overall, frequencies of occurrence declined, mirroring trends in less species-rich, yet more intensively studied taxa. 3. Geographically widespread species, which were predicted to be more sensitive to land use than to climate change, declined significantly in southern Britain, where the cover of urban and arable land has increased. 4. Moths associated with low nitrogen and open environments (based on their larval host plant characteristics) declined most strongly, which is also consistent with a land-use change explanation. 5. Some moths that reach their northern (leading edge) range limit in southern Britain increased, whereas species restricted to northern Britain (trailing edge) declined significantly, consistent with a climate change explanation. 6. Not all species of a given type behaved similarly, suggesting that complex interactions between species’ attributes and different combinations of environmental drivers determine frequency of occurrence changes. 7. Synthesis and applications. Our findings are consistent with large-scale responses to climatic and land-use changes, with some species increasing and others decreasing. We suggest that land-use change (e.g. habitat loss, nitrogen deposition) and climate change are both major drivers of moth biodiversity change, acting independently and in combination. Importantly, the diverse responses revealed in this species-rich taxon show that multifaceted conservation strategies are needed to minimize negative biodiversity impacts of multiple environmental changes. We suggest that habitat protection, management and ecological restoration can mitigate combined impacts of land-use change and climate change by providing environments that are suitable for existing populations and also enable species to shift their ranges.

Prediction of the economic activity from the short and long-term interest rate differential: new evidences in Chile and the United States of America cases

The purpose of this work is to verify the stability of the relationship between real activity and interest rate spread. The test is based on Chen (1988) and Osorio and Galea (2006). The analysis is applied to Chile and the United States, from 1980 to 1999. In general, in both cases the relationship was statistically significant in early 80s, but a break point is found in both countries during that decades, suggesting that the relationship depends on the monetary rule follow by the Central Bank.

Evolution of the landscape of Madeira Island: long-term vegetation dynamics

The aim of this thesis was to evaluate historical change of the landscape of Madeira Island and to assess spatial and temporal vegetation dynamics. In current research diverse “retrospective techniques”, such as landscape repeat photography, dendrochronology, and research of historical records were used. These, combined with vegetation relevés, aimed to gather information about landscape change, disturbance history, and vegetation successional patterns. It was found that landscape change, throughout 125 years, was higher in the last five decades manly driven by farming abandonment, building growth and exotic vegetation coverage increase. Pristine vegetation was greatly destroyed since early settlement and by the end of the nineteenth century native vegetation was highly devastated due to recurrent antropogenic disturbances. These actions also helped to block plant succession and to modify floristical assemblages, affecting as well as species richness. In places with less hemeroby, although significant growth of vegetation of lower seral stages was detected, the vegetation of most mature stages headed towards unbalance between recovery and loss, being also very vulnerable to exotic species encroachment. Recovery by native vegetation also occurred in areas formerly occupied by exotic plants and agriculture but it was almost negligible. Vegetation recovery followed the successional model currently proposed, attesting the model itself. Yet, succession was slower than espected, due to lack of favourable conditions and to recurrent disturbances. Probable tempus of each seral stage was obtained by growth rates of woody taxa estimated through dendrochronology. The exotic trees which were the dominant trees in the past (Castanea sativa and Pinus pinaster) almost vanished. Eucalyptus globulus, the current main tree of the exotic forest is being replaced by other cover types as Acacia mearnsii. The latter, along with Arundo donax, Cytisus scoparius and Pittosporum undulatum are currently the exotic species with higher invasive behaviour. However, many other exotic species have also proved to be highly pervasive and came together with the ones referred above to prevent native vegetation regeneration, to diminish biological diversity, and to block early successional phases delaying native forest recovery.

Hardness of heat-polymerized acrylic resins after disinfection and long-term water immersion

Statement of the problem. In selecting a disinfectant for dental prostheses, compatibility between the disinfectant and the type of denture base material must be considered to avoid adverse effects on the hardness of the acrylic resin.Purpose. This study investigated the hardness of 2 denture base resins after disinfection and long-term water immersion.Material and methods. Thirty-two disk-shaped specimens (13 mm in diameter and 8 mm thick) were fabricated from each resin (Lucitone 550 and QC-20), polished, stored in water at 37degreesC for 48 hours, and submitted to hardness tests (Vickers hardness number [VHN]) before disinfection. Disinfection methods included scrubbing with 4% chlorhexidine gluconate for 1 minute, immersion for 10 minutes in I of the tested disinfectant Solutions (n=8) (3.78% sodium perborate, 4% chlorhexidine gluconate, or 1% sodium hypochorite), and immersion in water for 3 minutes. The disinfection procedures were repeated 4 times, and 12 hardness measurements were made on each specimen. Control specimens (not disinfected) were stored in water for 56 minutes. Hardness tests (VHN) were also performed after 15, 30, 60, 90, and 120 days of storage in water. Statistical analyses of data were conducted with a repeated measures 3-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Tukey post-hoc test (alpha=.05).Results. Mean values +/- SD for Lucitone 550 (16.52 +/- 0.94 VHN) and QC-20 (9.61 +/- 0.62 VHN) demonstrated a significant (P<.05) decrease in hardness after disinfection, regardless of material and disinfectant solutions used (Lucitone 550: 15.25 +/- 0.74; QC-20: 8.09 +/- 0.39). However, this effect was reversed after 15 days of storage in water. Both materials exhibited a continuous increase (P<.05) in hardness values for up to 60 days of water storage, after which no significant change was observed.Conclusion. Within the limitations of this in vitro study, QC-20 and Lucitone 550 specimens exhibited significantly lower hardness values after disinfection regardless of the disinfectant solution used.

Gluconeogenesis and P-enolpyruvate carboxykinase in liver and kidney of long-term fasted quails

The activity of cytoplasmic and mitochondrial phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase (PEPCK) in kidney and liver, and in vivo gluconeogenic activity, were determined during different phases of prolonged fasting in quails. The fasting-induced changes in the activity of kidney cytoplasmic PEPCK were positively correlated with the changes in gluconeogenesis. Both activities increased at the initial phase (I) of fasting to levels 65% to 100% higher than fed values, and decreased during the protein-sparing period (phase II), although remaining higher than in fed birds. At the catabolic final phase (III) both kidney cytoplasmic PEPCK activity and gluconeogenesis increased markedly, attaining levels 115% to 150% higher than fed values. The activity of liver cytoplasmic PEPCK, present in appreciable amounts in quails, did not change during phases I and II of fasting, but increased to levels 60% higher than fed values at the final phase (III). Plasma glucose levels at phase III did not differ significantly from those at phases I and II. In both kidney and liver the activity of the mitochondrial PEPCK was not significantly affected by fasting. The data suggest that the kidney cytoplasmic PEPCK is the main enzyme responsible for gluconeogenesis adjustments during food deprivation in quails, and that this function is complemented at the final phase by enzyme present in liver cytosol.

Upregulation of muscarinic receptors by long-term nitric oxide inhibition in the rat ileum

1. The aim of the present study was to examine the effects of long-term nitric oxide (NO) blockade on contractions of the rat ileum induced by muscarinic agonists.2. Male Wistar rats received the NO synthesis inhibitor N (G) -nitro-l-arginine methyl ester (l-NAME; 20 mg/rat per day) in drinking water for 7, 15, 30 and 60 days. Concentration-responses curves to methacholine and carbachol were obtained and pEC(50) values were calculated. Saturation binding assays were performed in membranes prepared from rat ileum after 60 days of l-NAME treatment and the dissociation constant (K-D ) and maximal number of binding sites (B-max ) were determined by Scatchard analysis.3. The NO synthase activity of the ileum was markedly reduced in all l-NAME-treated groups. At 60 days after l-NAME treatment, a significant increase in the potency of methacholine (fourfold) and carbachol (threefold) was observed. In binding studies, we found a significant increase in B-max for [(3) H]-quinuclidinyl benzilate of approximately 57% in the l-NAME treated group without any significant change in K-D values. The contractile response to methacholine was not modified by the soluble guanylate cyclase inhibitor 1H-[1,2,4]oxadiazolo-[4,3-a]quinoxalin-1-one (3 mumol/L). No morphological alterations in the rat ileum were observed in l-NAME-treated rats.4. Our findings suggest that treatment with l-NAME for 60 days induces a marked increase in the potency of methacholine and carbachol, as well as an increase in receptor number in the rat ileum.

Long-term accumulation of uranium in bones of Wistar rats as a function of intake dosages

Groups of Wistar rats were fed with ration doped with uranyl nitrate at concentration A ranging from 0.5 to 100 ppm, starting after the weaning period and lasting until the postpuberty period when the animals were sacrificed. Uranium in the ashes of bones was determined by neutron activation analysis. It was found that the uranium concentration in the bones. as a function of A, exhibits a change in its slope at similar to20 ppm-a probable consequence of the malfunctioning of kidneys. The uranium transfer coefficient was obtained and an analytical expression was fitted into the data. thus allowing extrapolation down to low doses. Internal and localized doses were calculated. Absorbed doses exceeded the critical dose. even for the lowest uranium dosage.