Simulating the long-run aggregate economic and intergenerational redistributive effects of social security policy /

"August 1992."

Long-run effects of unfunded social security with earnings-dependent benefits

This paper examines the effects of unfunded social security with bequests, fertility and human capital by considering a mix of earnings-dependent and universal social security benefits. We show that social security is more likely to promote growth by reducing fertility and increasing human capital investment if its benefits are more dependent on individuals' own earnings. Through simulations, we find that the differences in the effects of social security resulting from variations in the benefit formula can be too substantial to be ignored. We also investigate the welfare effect in calibrated economies. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Future long-horizon performance measurement conditional on past survival

This paper examines the measurement of long-horizon abnormal performance when stock selection is conditional on an extended period of past survival. Filtering on survival results in a sample driven towards more-established, frequently traded stocks and this has implications for the choice of benchmark used in performance measurement (especially in the presence of the well-documented size effect). A simulation study is conducted to document the properties of commonly employed performance measures conditional on past survival. The results suggest that the popular index benchmarks used in long-horizon event studies are severely biased and yield test statistics that are badly misspecified. In contrast, a matched-stock benchmark based on size and industry performs consistently well. Also, an eligible-stock index designed to mitigate the influence of the size effect proves effective.

This Time is Different: Causes and Consequences of British Banking Instability over the Long Run

This paper addresses three questions: (1) How severe were the episodes of banking instability
experienced by the UK over the past two centuries? (2) What have been the macroeconomic
indicators of UK banking instability? and (3) What have been the consequences of UK banking
instability for the cost of credit? Using a unique dataset of bank share prices from 1830 to 2010
to assess the stability of the UK banking system, we find that banking instability has grown more
severe since the 1970s. We also find that interest rates, inflation, lending growth, and equity
prices are consistent macroeconomic indicators of UK banking instability over the long run.
Furthermore, utilising a unique dataset of corporate-bond yields for the period 1860 to 2010, we
find that there is a significant long-run relationship between banking instability and the creditrisk
premium faced by businesses.

Pre-colonial institutions and long-run development in Latin America

The present doctoral thesis studies the association between pre-colonial institutions and long-run development in Latin America. The thesis is organised as follows: Chapter 1 places the motivation of the thesis by underlying relevant contributions in the literature on long-run development. I then set out the main objective of the thesis, followed by a brief outline of it. In Chapter 2, I study the effects of pre-colonial institutions on present-day socioeconomic outcomes for Latin America. The main thesis of this chapter is that more advanced pre-colonial institutions relate to better socioeconomic outcomes today - principally, but not only, through their effects on the Amerindian population. I test such hypothesis with a dataset of 324 sub-national administrative units covering all mainland Latin American countries. The extensive range of controls covers factors such as climate, location, natural resources, colonial activities and pre-colonial characteristics - plus country fixed effects. Results strongly support the main thesis. In Chapter 3, I further analyse the association between pre-colonial institutions and present-day economic development in Latin America by using the historical ethnic homelands as my main unit of analysis. The main hypothesis is that ethnic homelands inhabited by more advanced ethnic groups -as measured by their levels of institutional complexity- relate to better economic development today. To track these long-run effects, I construct a new dataset by digitising historiographical maps allowing me to pinpoint the geospatial location of ethnic homelands as of the XVI century. As a result, 375 ethnic homelands are created. I then capture the levels of economic development at the ethnic homeland level by making use of alternative economic measures --satellite light density data. After controlling for country-specific characteristics and applying a large battery of geographical, locational, and historical factors, I found that the effects of pre-colonial institutions relate to a higher light density --as a proxy for economic activity- in ethnic homelands where more advanced ethnic groups lived. In Chapter 4, I explore a mechanism linking the persistence of pre-colonial institutions in Latin America over the long-run: Colonial and post-colonial strategies along with the ethnic political capacity worked in tandem allowing larger Amerindian groups to "support" the new political systems in ways that would benefit their respective ethnic groups as well as the population at large. This mechanism may have allowed the effects of pre-colonial institutions to influence socioeconomic development outcomes up to today. To shed lights on this mechanism, I combine the index of pre-colonial institutions prepared for the second chapter of the present thesis with individual-level survey data on people's attitudes. By controlling for key observable and unobservable country-specific characteristics, the main empirical results show that areas with a history of more advanced pre-colonial institutions increase the probability of individuals supporting present-day political institutions. Finally, in Chapter 5, I summarise the main findings of the thesis, and emphasise the key weaknesses of the study as well as potential avenues for future research.

Long term performance evaluation of small-diameter vascular grafts based on polyvinyl alcohol hydrogel and dextran and MSCs-based therapies using the ovine pre-clinical animal model.

The functional and structural performance of a 5 cm synthetic small diameter vascular graft (SDVG) produced by the copolymerization of polyvinyl alcohol hydrogel with low molecular weight dextran (PVA/Dx graft) associated to mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs)-based therapies and anticoagulant treatment with heparin, clopidogrel and warfarin was tested using the ovine model during the healing period of 24 weeks. The results were compared to the ones obtained with standard expanded polyetetrafluoroethylene grafts (ePTFE graft). Blood flow, vessel and graft diameter measurements, graft appearance and patency rate (PR), thrombus, stenosis and collateral vessel formation were evaluated by B-mode ultrasound, audio and color flow Doppler. Graft and regenerated vessels morphologic evaluation was performed by scanning electronic microscopy (SEM), histopathological and immunohistochemical analysis. All PVA/Dx grafts could maintain a similar or higher PR and systolic / diastolic laminar blood flow velocities were similar to ePTFE grafts. CD14 (macrophages) and α-actin (smooth muscle) staining presented similar results in PVA/Dx/MSCs and ePTFE graft groups. Fibrosis layer was lower and endothelial cells were only detected at graft-artery transitions where it was added the MSCs. In conclusion, PVA/Dx graft can be an excellent scaffold candidate for vascular reconstruction, including clinic mechanically challenging applications, such as SDVGs, especially when associated to MSCs-based therapies to promote higher endothelialization and lower fibrosis of the vascular prosthesis, but also higher PR values.

Essays in Long-run Development and Spatial Economics

This thesis tries to further our understanding for why some countries today are more prosperous than others. It establishes that part of today's observed variation in several proxies such as income or gender inequality have been determined in the distant past. Chapter one shows that 450 years of (Catholic) Portuguese colonisation had a long-lasting impact in India when it comes to education and female emancipation. Furthermore I use a historical quasi-experiment that happened 250 years ago in order to show that different outcomes have different degrees of persitence over time. Educational gaps between males and females seemingly wash out a few decades after the public provision of schools. The male biased sex-ratios on the other hand stay virtually unchanged despite governmental efforts. This provides evidence that deep rooted son preferences are much harder to overcome, suggesting that a differential approach is needed to tackle sex-selective abortion and female neglect. The second chapter proposes improvements for the execution of Spatial Regression Discontinuity Designs. These suggestions are accompanied by a full-fledged spatial statistical package written in R. Chapter three introduces a quantitative economic geography model in order to study the peculiar evolution of the European urban system on its way to the Industrial Revolution. It can explain the shift of economic gravity from the Mediterranean towards the North-Sea ("little divergence"). The framework provides novel insights on the importance of agricultural trade costs and the peculiar geography of Europe with its extended coastline and dense network of navigable rivers.

Experimental and numerical investigation on short and long term performance of macro-synthetic fibre reinforced concrete materials

Fibre Reinforced Concretes are innovative composite materials whose applications are growing considerably nowadays. Being composite materials, their performance depends on the mechanical properties of both components, fibre and matrix and, above all, on the interface. The variables to account for the mechanical characterization of the material, could be proper of the material itself, i.e. fibre and concrete type, or external factors, i.e. environmental conditions. The first part of the research presented is focused on the experimental and numerical characterization of the interface properties and short term response of fibre reinforced concretes with macro-synthetic fibers. The experimental database produced represents the starting point for numerical models calibration and validation with two principal purposes: the calibration of a local constitutive law and calibration and validation of a model predictive of the whole material response. In the perspective of the design of sustainable admixtures, the optimization of the matrix of cement-based fibre reinforced composites is realized with partial substitution of the cement amount. In the second part of the research, the effect of time dependent phenomena on MSFRCs response is studied. An extended experimental campaign of creep tests is performed analysing the effect of time and temperature variations in different loading conditions. On the results achieved, a numerical model able to account for the viscoelastic nature of both concrete and reinforcement, together with the environmental conditions, is calibrated with the LDPM theory. Different type of regression models are also elaborated correlating the mechanical properties investigated, bond strength and residual flexural behaviour, regarding the short term analysis and creep coefficient on time, for the time dependent behaviour, with the variable investigated. The experimental studies carried out emphasize the several aspects influencing the material mechanical performance allowing also the identification of those properties that the numerical approach should consider in order to be reliable.

As infraestruturas portuárias em Cabo Verde: eficiência no curto e no longo prazo

Relatório de estágio de mestrado de Economia Industrial e da Empresa

Stochastic Dynamic Northern Corn Rootworm Population Model, January 2000

A complete life cycle model for northern corn rootworm, Diabrotica barberi Smith and Lawrence, is developed using a published single-season model of adult population dynamics and data from field experiments. Temperature-dependent development and age-dependent advancement determine adult population dynamics and oviposition, while a simple stochastic hatch and density-dependent larval survival model determine adult emergence. Dispersal is not modeled. To evaluate the long-run performance of the model, stochastically generated daily air and soil temperatures are used for 100-year simulations for a variety of corn planting and flowering dates in Ithaca, NY, and Brookings, SD. Once the model is corrected for a bias in oviposition, model predictions for both locations are consistent with anecdotal field data. Extinctions still occur, but these may be consistent with northern corn rootworm metapopulation dynamics.

Tuovatko pääomasijoittajat lisäarvoa? Suomessa listattujen osakkeiden tuottovertailu

Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena on selvittää listautumisantien suoriutumista Suomen markkinoilla, sekä verrata pääomasijoittajien ja muiden listaamia yrityksiä. Tutkimusperiodina käytetään 36 kuukautta. Lisäksi tutkitaan lyhyen ajanjakson tuottoja näiden välillä. Tutkimuksessa selvitetään myös se, miten kansainvälisellä aineistollahavaitut, listautumisanteihin liittyvät anomaliat toteutuvat Suomessa. Tutkimuksen aineisto koostuu 48 yrityksestä, jotka listautuivat Helsingin pörssiin vuosien 1996 - 2000 välillä. Tutkimusmenetelmänä käytetään tapahtumatutkimusta. Kerätystä aineistosta lasketaan ylituotot kolmea eri menetelmää käyttämällä, eli lasketaan CAR-, BHAR- ja WR-ylituotot. Aineistolle tehdään myösregressio, jossa alisuoriutumista selitetään erilaisilla muuttujilla. Empiiristen tulosten mukaan listautumisannit keskimäärin alisuoriutuvat Suomen markkinoilla vertailukohteina käytettyihin indekseihin verrattuna. Tämän tulos tukee aiempia, kansainvälisiltä markkinoilta saatuja havaintoja. Sitä vastoin tämän tutkimuksen perusteella pääomasijoittajien listaamat yritykset alisuoriutuvat enemmän kuin muut listatut yritykset. Tämä havainto poikkeaa kansainvälisellä aineistolla tehdyistä tutkimuksista. Tutkittaessa portfolioiden ominaisuuksia, havaittiin erityisesti listautumisvuoden selittävän alisuoriutumisen voimakkuutta.

Yritysjärjestelyiden vaikutus lyhyen aikavälin osaketuottoihin ja pitkän aikavälin kannattavuuteen Suomen markkinoilla

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on selvittää yritysjärjestelyiden vaikutuksia Suomen markkinoilla, sekä tutkia onko yritysjärjestelyiden eroavaisuuksilla vaikutusta menestymiseen. Yritysjärjestelyt ryhmitellään maksutavan, koon, kansainvälisyyden ja markkina-arvo/kirja-arvon perusteella. Tutkimuksen aineisto koostuu 31 yritysjärjestelystä, joissa ainakin toinen osapuoli on ilmoitushetkellä ollut listattuna Helsingin pörssiin. Tutkimukseen valitut yritysjärjestelyt ovat tapahtuneet vuosien 1999-2007 välillä. Tutkimus suoritetaan kahdella eri menetelmällä: markkinaperusteisia tuottoja ja yritysten taloudellista informaatiota analysoimalla. Markkinaperusteisia tuottoja tutkitaan epänormaaleiden tuottojen avulla. Taloudelliseen informaatioon perustuvaa kannattavuutta tutkitaan kassavirran ja operatiivisen tuloksen avulla, jotka suhteutetaan yritysten markkina-arvoon ja liikevaihtoon. Empiiristen tulosten mukaan yritysjärjestelyt tuottavat ostettavan yrityksen osakkeenomistajille epänormaaleita tuottoja ja ostavan yrityksen osakkeenomistajille nollatuottoja. Tulokset ovat samankaltaisia kuin kansainvälisellä aineistolla aiemmin saadut. Taloudelliseen informaatioon perustuvat tulokset ovat ristiriitaisia mutta niistä on havaittavissa heikohko menestyminen yhdistymisen jälkeen.

Desempenho de longo prazo de IPOs no Brasil: um estudo para o período de 2004 a 2015

O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar o desempenho de longo prazo das empresas que abrem o capital no Brasil. Os fenômenos de (1) valorização no primeiro dia de negócios pós-IPO (underpricing) seguido de (2) desempenho inferior ao mercado no longo prazo (long-run underperformance) foram amplamente documentados em trabalhos de outros autores. O foco do estudo está em verificar a persistência dessa baixa performance quando alongamos o período de avaliação para 5 anos. Adicionalmente, o estudo pretende entender que fatores são determinantes no desempenho destas ações no longo prazo. O trabalho analisa 128 IPOs ocorridos no período de 2004 a 2012 na Bovespa. Os resultados apontam para evidências estatisticamente significantes de underpricing. Este underpricing foi mais acentuado entre os anos de 2004 a 2008, período precursor da crise financeira do subprime. Quando se analisa a performance de longo prazo os resultados apontam que a carteira de IPOs apresentou performance abaixo do mercado até o 29° mês. Os IPOs lançados no período pré-crise do subprime tiveram performance abaixo do mercado após 3 anos, enquanto que os IPOs lançados no pós-crise tiveram retorno acima do mercado para 3 e 5 anos. Não foi identificada a persistência da baixa performance dos IPOs além do 29° mês. Três variáveis principais mostraram significância na explicação dos retornos de longo prazo: (1) o período de lançamento das ações, (2) o percentual de alocação de investidores estrangeiros, (3) e a reputação do coordenador da oferta. Os IPOs lançados no período pós-crise do subprime observaram melhor performance no longo prazo. Também apresentaram melhor performance os IPOs com maior presença de investidor estrangeiro. Adicionalmente, existe uma relação inversa entre a reputação do coordenador líder da oferta e a performance de longo prazo.