Modelling the influence of change in fire regime on the local distribution of a Mediterranean pyrophytic plant species (Cistus salviifolius) at its northern range limit

Aims: To assess the potential distribution of an obligate seeder and active pyrophyte, Cistus salviifolius, a vulnerable species in the Swiss Red List; to derive scenarios by changing the fire return interval; and to discuss the results from a conservation perspective. A more general aim is to assess the impact of fire as a natural factor influencing the vegetation of the southern slopes of the Alps. Locations: Alps, southern Switzerland. Methods: Presence-absence data to fit the model were obtained from the most recent field mapping of C. salviifolius. The quantitative environmental predictors used in this study include topographic, climatic and disturbance (fire) predictors. Models were fitted by logistic regression and evaluated by jackknife and bootstrap approaches. Changes in fire regime were simulated by increasing the time-return interval of fire (simulating longer periods without fire). Two scenarios were considered: no fire in the past 15 years; or in the past 35 years. Results: Rock cover, slope, topographic position, potential evapotranspiration and time elapsed since the last fire were selected in the final model. The Nagelkerke R-2 of the model for C. salviifolius was 0.57 and the Jackknife area under the curve evaluation was 0.89. The bootstrap evaluation revealed model robustness. By increasing the return interval of fire by either up to 15 years, or 35 years, the modelled C. salviifolius population declined by 30-40%, respectively. Main conclusions: Although fire plays a significant role, topography and rock cover appear to be the most important predictors, suggesting that the distribution of C. salviifolius in the southern Swiss Alps is closely related to the availability of supposedly competition-free sites, such as emerging bedrock, ridge locations or steep slopes. Fire is more likely to play a secondary role in allowing C. salviifolius to extend its occurrence temporarily, by increasing germination rates and reducing the competition from surrounding vegetation. To maintain a viable dormant seed bank for C. salviifolius, conservation managers should consider carrying out vegetation clearing and managing wild fire propagation to reduce competition and ensure sufficient recruitment for this species.

Distinct levels in Pom1 gradients limit Cdr2 activity and localization to time and position division.

Where and when cells divide are fundamental questions. In rod-shaped fission yeast cells, the DYRK-family kinase Pom1 is organized in concentration gradients from cell poles and controls cell division timing and positioning. Pom1 gradients restrict to mid-cell the SAD-like kinase Cdr2, which recruits Mid1/Anillin for medial division. Pom1 also delays mitotic commitment through Cdr2, which inhibits Wee1. Here, we describe quantitatively the distributions of cortical Pom1 and Cdr2. These reveal low profile overlap contrasting with previous whole-cell measurements and Cdr2 levels increase with cell elongation, raising the possibility that Pom1 regulates mitotic commitment by controlling Cdr2 medial levels. However, we show that distinct thresholds of Pom1 activity define the timing and positioning of division. Three conditions-a separation-of-function Pom1 allele, partial downregulation of Pom1 activity, and haploinsufficiency in diploid cells-yield cells that divide early, similar to pom1 deletion, but medially, like wild-type cells. In these cells, Cdr2 is localized correctly at mid-cell. Further, Cdr2 overexpression promotes precocious mitosis only in absence of Pom1. Thus, Pom1 inhibits Cdr2 for mitotic commitment independently of regulating its localization or cortical levels. Indeed, we show Pom1 restricts Cdr2 activity through phosphorylation of a C-terminal self-inhibitory tail. In summary, our results demonstrate that distinct levels in Pom1 gradients delineate a medial Cdr2 domain, for cell division placement, and control its activity, for mitotic commitment.

Parents - child role reversal in trilogue play: case studies of trajectories from pregnancy to toddlerhood

Role reversal, whereby a child attempts to meet her parent's adult needs for parenting, intimacy, or companionship, has been identified as a risk factor for developmental disturbances. It has been defined from diverse perspectives as a child attachment strategy, a parent - toddler relational disturbance, and a boundary disturbance between parents and child. The recently discovered infant's triangular capacity, namely the sharing of her attention and affects with both parents, allows one to analyse the infant's contribution to early family dynamics. Role reversal was detected in 4 out of 45 father - mother - infant interactions observed in trilogue play from pregnancy to toddlerhood. The developmental trajectories towards role reversal are explored by means of case analyses. Results are compared with cases of problematic triangulation encountered in the same sample. In role reversal, family interactions are rigidly organized around a "two against one" coalition, whereby the normative hierarchy between parents and child is reversed. The child's triangular capacity is overactivated, controlling the tension between her parents by provocation - animation strategies

Evaluation of Iowa’s 70 mph Speed Limit — 2.5 Year Update, 2009

On July 1, 2005, the State of Iowa implemented a 70 mile per hour (mph) speed limit on most rural Interstates. This document reports on a study of the safety effect of this change. Changes in speeds, traffic volume on and off the rural Interstate system (diversion), and safety (crashes) for on- and off-system roads were studied. After the change, mean and 85th percentile speeds increased by about 2 mph on rural Interstates, but speeding was reduced (the number of drivers exceeding the speed limit by 10 mph decreased from 20 per cent to about 8 per cent). Daytime and nighttime serious crashes were studied for a period of 14 and a half years prior to the change and 2 and a half years afterwards. Simple descriptive statistics reveal increases in all crash severity categories for the 2 and a half year period following the speed limit increase when compared to the most recent comparable 2 and a half year period prior to the increase. When compared to longer term trends, the increases were less pronounced in some severity levels and types, and for a few severity levels the average crash frequencies were observed to decrease. However, fatal and other serious cross-median crashes increased by relatively larger amounts as compared to expected random variation. The study also analyzed crash frequencies grouped into six-month periods, revealing similar findings.

Gender and socioeconomic disparities in BMI trajectories in the Seychelles using birth cohorts generated from serial population-based surveys.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The relationship between body mass index (BMI) and socioeconomic status (SES) tends to change over time and across populations. In this study, we examined, separately in men and women, whether the association between BMI and SES changed over successive birth cohorts in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean, African region). METHODS: We used data from all participants in three surveys conducted in 1989, 1994 and 2004 in independent random samples of the population aged 25-64 years in the Seychelles (N= 3'403). We used linear regression to model mean BMI according to age, cohort, SES and smoking status, allowing for a quadratic term for age to account for a curvilinear relation between BMI and age and interactions between SES and age and between SES and cohorts to test whether the relation between SES and BMI changed across subsequent cohorts. All analyses were performed separately in men and women. RESULTS: BMI increased with age in all birth cohorts. BMI was lower in men of low SES than high SES but was higher in women of low SES than high SES. In all SES categories, BMI increased over successive cohorts (1.24 kg/m2 in men and 1.51 kg/m2 for a 10-year increase in birth cohorts, p <0.001). The difference in BMI between men or women of high vs. low SES did not change significantly across successive cohorts (the interaction between SES and year of birth of cohort was statistically not significant). Smoking was associated with lower BMI in men and women (respectively -1.55 kg/m2 and 2.46 kg/m2, p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Although large differences exist between men and women, social patterning of BMI did not change significantly over successive cohorts in this population of a middle-income country in the African region.

Spectral analysis and limit behaviours in a spring-mass system

We consider a model for a damped spring-mass system that is a strongly damped wave equation with dynamic boundary conditions. In a previous paper we showed that for some values of the parameters of the model, the large time behaviour of the solutions is the same as for a classical spring-mass damper ODE. Here we use spectral analysis to show that for other values of the parameters, still of physical relevance and related to the effect of the spring inner viscosity, the limit behaviours are very different from that classical ODE