When do conservation planning methods deliver? Quantifying the consequences of uncertainty

The rapid global loss of biodiversity has led to a proliferation of systematic conservation planning methods. In spite of their utility and mathematical sophistication, these methods only provide approximate solutions to real-world problems where there is uncertainty and temporal change. The consequences of errors in these solutions are seldom characterized or addressed. We propose a conceptual structure for exploring the consequences of input uncertainty and oversimpli?ed approximations to real-world processes for any conservation planning tool or strategy. We then present a computational framework based on this structure to quantitatively model species representation and persistence outcomes across a range of uncertainties. These include factors such as land costs, landscape structure, species composition and distribution, and temporal changes in habitat. We demonstrate the utility of the framework using several reserve selection methods including simple rules of thumb and more sophisticated tools such as Marxan and Zonation. We present new results showing how outcomes can be strongly affected by variation in problem characteristics that are seldom compared across multiple studies. These characteristics include number of species prioritized, distribution of species richness and rarity, and uncertainties in the amount and quality of habitat patches. We also demonstrate how the framework allows comparisons between conservation planning strategies and their response to error under a range of conditions. Using the approach presented here will improve conservation outcomes and resource allocation by making it easier to predict and quantify the consequences of many different uncertainties and assumptions simultaneously. Our results show that without more rigorously generalizable results, it is very dif?cult to predict the amount of error in any conservation plan. These results imply the need for standard practice to include evaluating the effects of multiple real-world complications on the behavior of any conservation planning method.

Chilling damage in a changing climate in coastal landscapes of the subtropical zone: a case study from south Florida

Freeze events significantly influence landscape structure and community composition along subtropical coastlines. This is particularly true in south Florida, where such disturbances have historically contributed to patch diversity within the mangrove forest, and have played a part in limiting its inland transgression. With projected increases in mean global temperatures, such instances are likely to become much less frequent in the region, contributing to a reduction in heterogeneity within the mangrove forest itself. To understand the process more clearly, we explored the dynamics of a Dwarf mangrove forest following two chilling events that produced freeze-like symptoms, i.e., leaf browning, desiccation, and mortality, and interpreted the resulting changes within the context of current winter temperatures and projected future scenarios. Structural effects from a 1996 chilling event were dramatic, with mortality and tissue damage concentrated among individuals comprising the Dwarf forest's low canopy. This disturbance promoted understory plant development and provided an opportunity for Laguncularia racemosa to share dominance with Rhizophora mangle. Mortality due to the less severe 2001 event was greatest in the understory, probably because recovery of the protective canopy following the earlier freeze was still incomplete. Stand dynamics were static over the same period in nearby unimpacted sites. The probability of reaching temperatures as low as those recorded at a nearby meteorological station (≤3 °C) under several warming scenarios was simulated by applying 1° incremental temperature increases to a model developed from a 42-year temperature record. According to the model, the frequency of similar chilling events decreased from once every 1.9 years at present to once every 3.4 and 32.5 years with 1 and 4 °C warming, respectively. The large decrease in the frequency of these events would eliminate an important mechanism that maintains Dwarf forest structure, and promotes compositional diversity.

Multi-Scaled Grassland-Woody Plant Dynamics in the Heterogeneous Marl Prairies of the Southern Everglades

The Everglades freshwater marl prairie is a dynamic and spatially heterogeneous landscape, containing thousands of tree islands nested within a marsh matrix. Spatial processes underlie population and community dynamics across the mosaic, especially the balance between woody and graminoid components, and landscape patterns reflect interactions among multiple biotic and abiotic drivers. To better understand these complex, multi-scaled relationships we employed a three-tiered hierarchical design to investigate the effects of seed source, hydrology, and more indirectly fire on the establishment of new woody recruits in the marsh, and to assess current tree island patterning across the landscape. Our analyses were conducted at the ground level at two scales, which we term the micro- and meso-scapes, and results were related to remotely detected tree island distributions assessed in the broader landscape, that is, the macro-scape. Seed source and hydrologic effects on recruitment in the micro- and meso-scapes were analyzed via logistic regression, and spatial aggregation in the macro-scape was evaluated using a grid-based univariate O-ring function. Results varied among regions and scales but several general trends were observed. The patterning of adult populations was the strongest driver of recruitment in the micro- and meso-scape prairies, with recruits frequently aggregating around adults or tree islands. However in the macro-scape biologically associated (second order) aggregation was rare, suggesting that emergent woody patches are heavily controlled by underlying physical and environmental factors such as topography, hydrology, and fire.

Ecological Homogenization of Urban USA

A visually apparent but scientifically untested outcome of land-use change is homogenization across urban areas, where neighborhoods in different parts of the country have similar patterns of roads, residential lots, commercial areas, and aquatic features. We hypothesize that this homogenization extends to ecological structure and also to ecosystem functions such as carbon dynamics and microclimate, with continental-scale implications. Further, we suggest that understanding urban homogenization will provide the basis for understanding the impacts of urban land-use change from local to continental scales. Here, we show how multi-scale, multi-disciplinary datasets from six metropolitan areas that cover the major climatic regions of the US (Phoenix, AZ; Miami, FL; Baltimore, MD; Boston, MA; Minneapolis–St Paul, MN; and Los Angeles, CA) can be used to determine how household and neighborhood characteristics correlate with land-management practices, land-cover composition, and landscape structure and ecosystem functions at local, regional, and continental scales.

Pollen from 50 lake surface samples in Brandenburg, Germany, in 2009

Past changes in plant and landscape diversity can be evaluated through pollen analysis, however, pollen based diversity indexes are potentially biased by differential pollen production and deposition. Studies examining the relationship between pollen and landscape diversity are therefore needed. The aim of this study is to evaluate how different pollen based indexes capture aspects of landscape diversity. Pollen counts were obtained from surface samples of 50 small to medium sized lakes in Brandenburg (Northeast Germany) and compiled into two sets, with one containing all pollen counts from terrestrial plants and the second restricted to wind-pollinated taxa. Both sets were adjusted for the pollen production/dispersal bias using the REVEALS model. A high resolution biotope map was used to extract the density of total biotopes and different biotopes per area as parameters describing landscape diversity. In addition tree species diversity was obtained from forest inventory data. The Shannon index and the number of taxa in a sample of 10 pollen grains are highly correlated and provide a useful measure of pollen type diversity which corresponds best to landscape diversity within one km of the lake and the proportion of non-forested area within seven km. Adjustments of the pollen production/dispersal bias only slightly improve the relationships between pollen diversity and landscape diversity for the restricted dataset as well as for the forest inventory data and corresponding pollen types. Using rarefaction analysis, we propose the following convention: pollen type diversity is represented by the number of types in a small sample (low count e.g. 10), pollen type richness is the number of types in a large sample (high count e.g. 500) and pollen sample evenness is characterized by the ratio of the two. Synthesis. Pollen type diversity is a robust index that captures vegetation structure and landscape diversity. It is ideally suited for between site comparisons as it does not require high pollen counts. In concert with pollen type richness and evenness, it helps evaluating the effect of climate change and human land use on vegetation structure on long timescales.

Padrões de organização das assembleias de aves florestais em uma paisagem fragmentada de Floresta Atlântica

Brazil is home to one of the richest avifaunas the world, which is subject to high levels of environmental degradation, in particular forest fragmentation. The Atlantic Forest biome depicts this history of devastation and today remains as small isolated fragments on highly degraded landscapes. This project aimed to evaluate the effects of forest fragmentation in an area with Atlantic Forest remnants in northern Paraná (Brazil) on the distribution and the organization of assemblage of forest birds and tested the hypothesis that the structure of the assembly in the fragments is different than expected by chance. We did four qualitative samplings of birds in three sets of forest fragments in the landscape, each with three fragments: large, medium and small. The method applied in the sampling was point counts along transects, traveled randomly for four hours in each fragment. Samples were taken in two periods: from September to November / 2013, and between March and May / 2014. The structure of the meeting was assessed by rates of co-occurring species (Checkerboard and CScore) and α diversity patterns (wealth) and β (turnover of species), while the landscape structure was analyzed from the parameters: area, distance between fragments, fractal dimension, edge density, fragment shape index and nuclear area index. The null hypothesis of no structure in the assembly of birds in the landscape was tested with null models from the co-occurrence indexes. The effects of landscape structure on the assembly of the structure were analyzed by the Mantel test and principal component analysis (PCA). The assembly of the structure in the landscape showed a pattern of spatiotemporal organization significantly different from that expected by chance, revealing a structure most influenced by segregation of the species. The fragments showed significant differences in richness, unlike sets of fragments, indicating relative homogeneity in the landscape structure. The differences between the size and the distance between the fragments significantly influenced the patterns of organization of the meeting of forest birds in the landscape and patterns of α and β diversity, indicating that the higher the fragment and smaller distances between them, more the standard of species cooccurrence is different than expected by chance. Thus, the fragmented landscape of remnants of the northern Paraná Atlantic Forest still has availability of environmental resources and physical characteristics that allow a persistent organizational structure of the assembly of forest birds in space over time.

The culture of the journey as structure of the landscape: an inquiry on mobility facilities and identity of place

The structure of the travel, meant as cultural activity, is proposed as a key to read and design the urban or rural landscape.

Exploring the Crystal Structure Landscape with a Heterosynthon Module: Fluorobenzoic Acid:1,2-Bis(4-pyridyl)ethylene 2:1 Cocrystals

The crystal structure landscape of the 2:1 benzoic acid:dipyridylethylene cocrystal (BA:DPE-I) is explored experimentally with fluoro-substituted benzoic acids and extended with studies employing the Cambridge Structural Database (CSD). The interpretation of the cocrystal landscape is facilitated by considering the kinetically favored and robust acidpyridine heterosynthon as a modular unit. Information based on high-throughput crystallography shows that polymorphs and pseudopolymorphs may belong to the same landscape but arise from different crystallization pathways because of complex and different kinetic features, and secondary synthon preferences. Using the CSD as a guide, the coformer was changed from 1,2-bis(4-pyridyl)ethylene (DPE-I) to 1,2-bis(4-pyridyl)ethane (DPE-II) and this provides an extended interpretation of the BA:DPE-I cocrystal landscape, also highlighting the complexity of the kineticthermodynamic dichotomy during the molecule-to-crystal progression.

Demographics and landscape features determine intrariver population structure in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.): the case of the River Moy in Ireland

Contemporary genetic structure of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in the River Moy in Ireland is shown here to be strongly related to landscape features and population demographics, with populations being defined largely by their degree of physical isolation and their size. Samples of juvenile salmon were collected from the 17 major spawning areas on the river Moy and from one spawning area in each of five smaller nearby rivers. No temporal allele frequency differences were observed within locations for 12 microsatellite loci, whereas nearly all spatial samples differed significantly, suggesting that each was a separate population. Bayesian clustering and landscape genetic analyses suggest that these populations can be combined hierarchically into five genetically informative larger groupings. Lakes were found to be the single most important determinant of the observed population structure. Spawning area size was also an important factor. The salmon population of the closest nearby river resembled genetically the largest Moy population grouping. In addition, we showed that anthropogenic influences on spawning habitats, in this case arterial drainage, can affect relationships between populations. Our results show that Atlantic salmon biodiversity can be largely defined by geography, and thus, knowledge of landscape features (for example, as characterized within Geographical Information Systems) has the potential to predict population structure in other rivers without an intensive genetic survey, or at least to help direct sampling. This approach of combining genetics and geography, for sampling and in subsequent statistical analyses, has wider application to the investigation of population structure in other freshwater/anadromous fish species and possibly in marine fish and other organisms.

Data Structure Report of the Lismore Landscape project.: Submitted to Historic Scotland. 2004, Historic Scotland: Edinburgh.

Stoddart, S. and C. Malone,

Data Structure Report of the Lismore Landscape project.:Submitted to Historic Scotland.

Stoddart, S., C. Malone, and D. Redhouse, 2005.

Are corridors, fragment size and forest structure important for the conservation of leaf-litter lizards in a fragmented landscape?

To investigate the implications of forest fragmentation for conservation of leaf-litter lizards the importance of fragment size, corridors and forest structure was examined in 20 forest fragments and six localities within a continuous forest in the Atlantic Plateau of Sao Paulo state, Brazil. The fragments were 2-276 ha in area and had different degrees of connectivity depending on the presence or absence of corridors. Two species of lizards were dominant, Ecpleopus gaudichaudii and Enyalius perditus. Variation in forest structure among sites was important only in explaining the abundance of E. perditus. Regardless of variation in forest structure, lizard species composition, total lizard abundance, number of species and abundance of E. perditus were sensitive to fragmentation per se but not to fragment size or corridor linkage. The inhospitable matrix surrounding fragments is probably what determines the presence and abundance of E. perditus and the high er lizard richness in continuous forests. These conditions may have prevented lizard species from recolonizing the forest fragments. Our results emphasize that the conservation of this leaf-litter fauna depends on the maintenance of large tracts of continuous forests and not on the size of fragments or on the presence of forest connections. Strategies for conservation of leaf-litter lizards in such highly fragmented Atlantic Forest landscapes should consider the enlargement of landscape connectivity between fragments and continuous forest, allowing the latter areas to act as a source of individuals for fragments.