Estimation of lean meat content in pig carcasses using X-ray Computed Tomography and PLS regression

Lean meat percentage (LMP) is an important carcass quality parameter. The aim of this work is to obtain a calibration equation for the Computed Tomography (CT) scans with the Partial Least Square Regression (PLS) technique in order to predict the LMP of the carcass and the different cuts and to study and compare two different methodologies of the selection of the variables (Variable Importance for Projection — VIP- and Stepwise) to be included in the prediction equation. The error of prediction with cross-validation (RMSEPCV) of the LMP obtained with PLS and selection based on VIP value was 0.82% and for stepwise selection it was 0.83%. The prediction of the LMP scanning only the ham had a RMSEPCV of 0.97% and if the ham and the loin were scanned the RMSEPCV was 0.90%. Results indicate that for CT data both VIP and stepwise selection are good methods. Moreover the scanning of only the ham allowed us to obtain a good prediction of the LMP of the whole carcass.

Innovation sources and productivity in Catalonian firms: a quantile regression analysis

This paper explores the effects of two main sources of innovation - intramural and external R&D— on the productivity level in a sample of 3,267 Catalonian firms. The data set used is based on the official innovation survey of Catalonia which was a part of the Spanish sample of CIS4, covering the years 2002-2004. We compare empirical results by applying usual OLS and quantile regression techniques both in manufacturing and services industries. In quantile regression, results suggest different patterns at both innovation sources as we move across conditional quantiles. The elasticity of intramural R&D activities on productivity decreased when we move up the high productivity levels both in manufacturing and services sectors, while the effects of external R&D rise in high-technology industries but are more ambiguous in low-technology and knowledge-intensive services. JEL codes: O300, C100, O140 Keywords: Innovation sources, R&D, Productivity, Quantile Regression

Modelling dependence in a ratemaking procedure with multivariate Poisson regression models

When actuaries face with the problem of pricing an insurance contract that contains different types of coverage, such as a motor insurance or homeowner's insurance policy, they usually assume that types of claim are independent. However, this assumption may not be realistic: several studies have shown that there is a positive correlation between types of claim. Here we introduce different regression models in order to relax the independence assumption, including zero-inflated models to account for excess of zeros and overdispersion. These models have been largely ignored to multivariate Poisson date, mainly because of their computational di±culties. Bayesian inference based on MCMC helps to solve this problem (and also lets us derive, for several quantities of interest, posterior summaries to account for uncertainty). Finally, these models are applied to an automobile insurance claims database with three different types of claims. We analyse the consequences for pure and loaded premiums when the independence assumption is relaxed by using different multivariate Poisson regression models and their zero-inflated versions.

Morphological aspects of the myocarditis and myositis in Calomys callosus experimentally infected with Trypanosoma cruzi: fibrogenesis and spontaneous regression of fibrosis

Calomys callosus a wild rodent, is a natural host of Trypanosoma cruzi. Twelve C. callosus were infected with 10(5) trypomastigotes of the F strain (a myotropic strain) of T. cruzi. Parasitemia decreased on the 21 st day becoming negative around the 40th day of infection. All animals survived but had positive parasitological tests, until the end of the experiment. The infected animals developed severe inflammation in the myocardium and skeletal muscle. This process was pronounced from the 26 th to the 30th day and gradually subsided from the 50 th day becoming absent or residual on the 64 th day after infection. Collagen was identified by the picro Sirius red method. Fibrogenesis developed early, but regression of fibrosis occurred between the 50th and 64th day. Ultrastructural study disclosed a predominance of macrophages and fibroblasts in the inflammatory infiltrates, with small numbers of lymphocytes. Macrophages had active phagocytosis and showed points of contact with altered muscle cells. Different degrees of matrix expansion were present, with granular and fibrilar deposits and collagen bundles. These alterations subsided by the 64th days. Macrophages seem to be the main immune effector cell in the C. callosus model of infection with T. cruzi. The mechanisms involved in the rapid fibrogenesis and its regression deserve further investigation.

The use of classification and regression trees to predict the likelihood of seasonal influenza.

Background Individual signs and symptoms are of limited value for the diagnosis of influenza. Objective To develop a decision tree for the diagnosis of influenza based on a classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Methods Data from two previous similar cohort studies were assembled into a single dataset. The data were randomly divided into a development set (70%) and a validation set (30%). We used CART analysis to develop three models that maximize the number of patients who do not require diagnostic testing prior to treatment decisions. The validation set was used to evaluate overfitting of the model to the training set. Results Model 1 has seven terminal nodes based on temperature, the onset of symptoms and the presence of chills, cough and myalgia. Model 2 was a simpler tree with only two splits based on temperature and the presence of chills. Model 3 was developed with temperature as a dichotomous variable (≥38°C) and had only two splits based on the presence of fever and myalgia. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCC) for the development and validation sets, respectively, were 0.82 and 0.80 for Model 1, 0.75 and 0.76 for Model 2 and 0.76 and 0.77 for Model 3. Model 2 classified 67% of patients in the validation group into a high- or low-risk group compared with only 38% for Model 1 and 54% for Model 3. Conclusions A simple decision tree (Model 2) classified two-thirds of patients as low or high risk and had an AUROCC of 0.76. After further validation in an independent population, this CART model could support clinical decision making regarding influenza, with low-risk patients requiring no further evaluation for influenza and high-risk patients being candidates for empiric symptomatic or drug therapy.

Mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models with an application to insurance

In a recent paper Bermúdez [2009] used bivariate Poisson regression models for ratemaking in car insurance, and included zero-inflated models to account for the excess of zeros and the overdispersion in the data set. In the present paper, we revisit this model in order to consider alternatives. We propose a 2-finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models to demonstrate that the overdispersion in the data requires more structure if it is to be taken into account, and that a simple zero-inflated bivariate Poisson model does not suffice. At the same time, we show that a finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models embraces zero-inflated bivariate Poisson regression models as a special case. Additionally, we describe a model in which the mixing proportions are dependent on covariates when modelling the way in which each individual belongs to a separate cluster. Finally, an EM algorithm is provided in order to ensure the models’ ease-of-fit. These models are applied to the same automobile insurance claims data set as used in Bermúdez [2009] and it is shown that the modelling of the data set can be improved considerably.

A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.

La régression tumorale n'est pas un facteur de risque d'atteinte du ganglion sentinelle dans les mélanomes fins (indice de Breslow < or = 1 mm) [Tumour regression is not predictive for higher risk of sentinel node involvement in thin melanomas (Breslow thickness < or = 1 mm)]

Background: Thin melanomas (Breslow thickness <= 1 mm) are considered highly curable. The aim of this study was to evaluate the correlation between histological tumour regression and sentinel lymph node (SLN) involvement in thin melanomas. Patients and methods: This was a retrospective single-centre study of 34 patients with thin melanomas undergoing SLN biopsy between April 1998 and January 2005. Results: The study included 14 women and 20 men of mean age 56.3 years. Melanomas were located on the neck (n = 3), soles (n = 4), trunk (n = 13) and extremities (n = 14). Pathological examination showed 25 SSM, four acral lentiginous melanomas, three in situ melanomas, one nodular melanoma and one unclassified melanoma with a mean Breslow thickness of 0.57 mm. Histological tumour regression was observed in 26 over 34 cases and ulceration was found in one case. Clark levels were as follows: I (n = 3), II (n = 20), III (n = 9), IV (n = 2). Growth phase was available in 15 cases (seven radial and eight vertical). Mitotic rates, available in 24 cases, were: 0 (n = 9), 1 (n = 11), 2 (n = 2), 3 (n = 1), 6 (n = 1). One patient with histological tumour regression (2.9% of cases and 3.8% of cases with regressing tumours) had a metastatic SLN. One patient negative for SLN had a lung relapse and died of the disease. Mean follow-up was 26.2 months. Conclusion: The results of the present study and the analysis of the literature show that histological regression of the primary tumour does not seem predictive of higher risk of SLN involvement in thin melanomas. This suggests that screening for SLN is not indicated in thin melanomas, even those with histological regression.

Tacrolimus and cyclosporine have differential effects on the risk of development of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome: results of a prospective, randomized international trial in lung transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Chronic lung allograft dysfunction, which manifests as bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS), is recognized as the primary cause of morbidity and mortality after lung transplantation. In this study we assessed the efficacy and safety of two de novo immunosuppression protocols to prevent BOS. METHODS: Our study approach was a multicenter, prospective, randomized (1:1) open-label superiority investigation of de novo tacrolimus vs cyclosporine, with both study arms given mycophenolate mofetil and prednisolone after lung transplantation. Cytolytic induction therapy was not employed. Patients were stratified at entry for cystic fibrosis. Primary outcome was incidence of BOS 3 years after transplant (intention-to-treat analysis). Secondary outcomes were survival and incidence of acute rejection, infection and other adverse events. RESULTS: Group demographic data were well matched: 110 of 124 tacrolimus vs 74 of 125 cyclosporine patients were treated per protocol (p < 0.01 by chi-square test). Cumulative incidence of BOS Grade ≥1 at 3 years was 11.6% (tacrolimus) vs 21.3% (cyclosporine) (cumulative incidence curves, p = 0.037 by Gray's test, pooled over strata). Univariate proportional sub-distribution hazards regression confirmed cyclosporine as a risk for BOS (HR 1.97, 95% CI 1.04 to 3.77, p = 0.039). Three-year cumulative incidence of acute rejection was 67.4% (tacrolimus) vs 74.9% (cyclosporine) (p = 0.118 by Gray's test). One- and 3-year survival rates were 84.6% and 78.7% (tacrolimus) vs 88.6% and 82.8% (cyclosporine) (p = 0.382 by log-rank test). Cumulative infection rates were similar (p = 0.91), but there was a trend toward new-onset renal failure with tacrolimus (p = 0.09). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with cyclosporine, de novo tacrolimus use was found to be associated with a significantly reduced risk for BOS Grade ≥1 at 3 years despite a similar rate of acute rejection. However, no survival advantage was detected.

A prospective, randomized, open label, phase iii clinical trial of novottf-100a vs best standard of care chemotherapy in patients with recurrent glioblastoma

BACKGROUND: Glioblastoma, the most common adult primary malignant brain tumor, confers poor prognosis (median survival of 15 months) notwithstanding aggressive treatment. Combination chemotherapy including carmustine (BCNU) or temozolomide (TMZ) with the MGMT inhibitor O6-benzylguanine (O6BG) has been used, but has been associated with dose-limiting hematopoietic toxicity. OBJECTIVE: To assess safety and efficacy of a retroviral vector encoding the O6BG-resistant MGMTP140K gene for transduction and autologous transplantation of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) in MGMT unmethylated, newly diagnosed glioblastoma patients in an attempt to chemoprotect bone marrowduring combination O6BG/TMZ therapy. METHODS: Three patients have been enrolled in the first cohort. Patients underwent standard radiation therapy without TMZ followed by G-CSF mobilization, apheresis, and conditioning with 600 mg/m2 BCNU prior to infusion of gene-modified cells. Posttransplant, patients were treated with 28-day cycles of single doseTMZ (472 mg/m2) with 48-hour intravenous O6BG (120 mg/m2 bolus, then 30 mg/m2/d). RESULTS: The BCNU dose was nonmyeloablative with ANC ,500/mL for ≤3 d and nadir thrombocytopenia of 28,000/mL. Gene marking in pre-infusion colony forming units (CFUs) was 70.6%, 79.0%, and 74.0% in Patients 1, 2, and 3, respectively, by CFU-PCR. Following engraftment, gene marking in white blood cells and sorted granulocytes ranged between 0.37-0.84 and 0.33-0.83 provirus copies, respectively, by real-time PCR. Posttransplant gene marking in CFUs from CD34-selected cells ranged from 28.5% to 47.4%. Patients have received 4, 3, and 2 cycles of O6BG/TMZ, respectively, with evidence for selection of gene-modified cells. One patient has received a single dose-escalated cycle at 590 mg/m2 TMZ. No additional extra-hematopoietic toxicity has been observed thus far and all three patients exhibit stable disease at 7-8 months since diagnosis CONCLUSIONS: We believe that these data demonstrate the feasibility of achieving significant engraftment of MGMTP140K-modified cells with a well-tolerated dose of BCNU. Further follow-up will determine whether this approach will allow for further dose escalation of TMZ and improved survival.

Melan-A-specific cytotoxic T cells are associated with tumor regression and autoimmunity following treatment with anti-CTLA-4.

PURPOSE: Ipilimumab is a monoclonal antibody that blocks the immune-inhibitory interaction between CTL antigen 4 (CTLA-4) and its ligands on T cells. Clinical trials in cancer patients with ipilimumab have shown promising antitumor activity, particularly in patients with advanced melanoma. Often, tumor regressions in these patients are correlated with immune-related side effects such as dermatitis, enterocolitis, and hypophysitis. Although these reactions are believed to be immune-mediated, the antigenic targets for the cellular or humoral immune response are not known. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We enrolled patients with advanced melanoma in a phase II study with ipilimumab. One of these patients experienced a complete remission of his tumor. The specificity and functional properties of CD8-positive T cells in his peripheral blood, in regressing tumor tissue, and at the site of an immune-mediated skin rash were investigated. RESULTS: Regressing tumor tissue was infiltrated with CD8-positive T cells, a high proportion of which were specific for Melan-A. The skin rash was similarly infiltrated with Melan-A-specific CD8-positive T cells, and a dramatic (>30-fold) increase in Melan-A-specific CD8-positive T cells was apparent in peripheral blood. These cells had an effector phenotype and lysed Melan-A-expressing tumor cells. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that Melan-A may be a major target for both the autoimmune and antitumor reactions in patients treated with anti-CTLA-4, and describe for the first time the antigen specificity of CD8-positive T cells that mediate tumor rejection in a patient undergoing treatment with an anti-CTLA-4 antibody. These findings may allow a better integration of ipilimumab into other forms of immunotherapy.