Produkcja w spadkowej fazie cyklu koniunkturalnego w Polsce

Opracowanie ma charakter teoretyczno-empiryczny. Jego głównym celem jest weryfikacja dwóch zasadniczych dla austriackiej teorii cyklu koniunkturalnego hipotez. Pierwsza hipoteza mówi, że restrykcyjna polityka pieniężna powoduje skracanie struktury produkcji, druga ¬– że podwyżki stóp prowadzą do względnych różnic w spadku produkcji branż wytwarzających dobra w różnych odległościach od konsumenta. Przeprowadzona w opracowaniu analiza, oparta na przyjętych wskaźnikach, pozwala pozytywnie zweryfikować obie hipotezy. Podwyżki stóp procentowych dokonane przez Narodowy Bank Polski prowadziły do powstawania spadkowych faz cyklu. W tym okresie w polskiej gospodarce zmniejszał się czas produkcji dóbr finalnych oraz występowały względne różnice w spadkach produkcji w branżach oddalonych w różnym stopniu od ostatecznego odbiorcy.

The financial storms in Vietnam's transition economy: a reasoning on the 1991-2008 period

This study focuses on those substantial changes that characterize the shift of Vietnam’s macroeconomic structures and evolution of micro-structural interaction over an important period of 1991-2008. The results show that these events are completely distinct in terms of (i) Economic nature; (ii) Scale and depth of changes; (iii) Start and end results; and, (iv) Requirement for macroeconomic decisions. The study rejected a suspicion of similarity between the contagion of the Asian financial crisis in 1997-98 and economic chaos in the first half of 2008 (starting from late 2007). The depth, economic settings of, and interconnection between macro choices and micro decisions have all grown up significantly, partly due to a much deeper level of integration of Vietnam into the world’s economy. On the one hand, this phenomenon gives rise to efficiency of macro level policies because the consideration of micro-structural factors within the framework has definitely become increasingly critical. On the other and, this is a unique opportunity for the macroeconomic mechanism of Vietnam to improve vastly, given the context in which the national economy entered an everchanging period under pressures of globalization and re-integration. The authors hope to also open up paths for further empirical verifications and to stress on the fact that macro policies will have, from now on, to be decided in line with changing micro-settings, which specify a market economy and decide the degree of success of any macroeconomic choices.

Corporate Bond Market in the Transition Economy of Vietnam, 1990-2010

Corporate bond appeared early in 1992-1994 in Vietnamese capital markets. However, it is still not popular to both business sector and academic circle. This paper explores different dimensions of Vietnamese corporate bond market using a unique, and perhaps, most complete dataset. State not only intervenes in the bond markets with its powerful budget and policies but also competes directly with enterprises. The dominance of SOEs and large corporations also prevents SMEs from this debt financing vehicle. Whenever a convertible term is available, bondholders are more willing to accept lower fixed income payoff. But they would not likely stick to it. On one hand, prospective bondholders could value the holdings of equity when realized favorably ex ante. On the other hand, the applicable coupon rate for such bond could turn out negative inflationadjusted payoff when tight monetary policy is exercised and the corresponding equity holding turns out valueless, ex post. Given the weak primary market and virtually nonexistent secondary market, the corporate bond market in Vietnam reflects our perception of the relationship-based and rent-seeking behavior in the financial markets. For the corporate bonds to really work, they critically need a higher level of liquidity to become truly tradable financial assets.

Discounting the Benefits of Climate Change Policies Using Uncertain Rates

Evaluating environmental policies, such as the mitigation of greenhouse gases, frequently requires balancing near-term mitigation costs against long-term environmental benefits. Conventional approaches to valuing such investments hold interest rates constant, but the authors contend that there is a real degree of uncertainty in future interest rates. This leads to a higher valuation of future benefits relative to conventional methods that ignore interest rate uncertainty.

Discounting the distant future: How much do uncertain rates increase valuations?

We demonstrate that when the future path of the discount rate is uncertain and highly correlated, the distant future should be discounted at significantly lower rates than suggested by the current rate. We then use two centuries of US interest rate data to quantify this effect. Using both random walk and mean-reverting models, we compute the "certainty-equivalent rate" that summarizes the effect of uncertainty and measures the appropriate forward rate of discount in the future. Under the random walk model we find that the certainty-equivalent rate falls continuously from 4% to 2% after 100 years, 1% after 200 years, and 0.5% after 300 years. At horizons of 400 years, the discounted value increases by a factor of over 40,000 relative to conventional discounting. Applied to climate change mitigation, we find that incorporating discount rate uncertainty almost doubles the expected present value of mitigation benefits. © 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Numerical solutions of certain nonlinear models in European options on a distributed computing environment

Financial modelling in the area of option pricing involves the understanding of the correlations between asset and movements of buy/sell in order to reduce risk in investment. Such activities depend on financial analysis tools being available to the trader with which he can make rapid and systematic evaluation of buy/sell contracts. In turn, analysis tools rely on fast numerical algorithms for the solution of financial mathematical models. There are many different financial activities apart from shares buy/sell activities. The main aim of this chapter is to discuss a distributed algorithm for the numerical solution of a European option. Both linear and non-linear cases are considered. The algorithm is based on the concept of the Laplace transform and its numerical inverse. The scalability of the algorithm is examined. Numerical tests are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm for financial analysis. Time dependent functions for volatility and interest rates are also discussed. Applications of the algorithm to non-linear Black-Scholes equation where the volatility and the interest rate are functions of the option value are included. Some qualitative results of the convergence behaviour of the algorithm is examined. This chapter also examines the various computational issues of the Laplace transformation method in terms of distributed computing. The idea of using a two-level temporal mesh in order to achieve distributed computation along the temporal axis is introduced. Finally, the chapter ends with some conclusions.

Comparative analysis of corporate risk management practices in Croatian and Slovenian companies

The paper explores differences as well as commonalities in corporate risk management practices and risk exposures in the large non-financial Slovenian and Croatian companies. Comparative analysis of survey results have revealed that the majority of analysed companies in both Croatia and Slovenia are using some form of risk management to manage interest-rate, foreign exchange, or commodity price risk. Regarding the intensity of influence of financial risks on the performance of the analysed companies, the results have shown that the price risk has the highest influence among the Slovenian as well as the Croatian companies. Croatian companies are more affected by currency risk than the Slovenian companies, while the interest-rate risk has been ranged as less important in comparison with commodity price and currency risks. The survey’s results have clearly indicated that Croatian and Slovenian non-financial companies manage financial risks primarily with simple risk management instruments such as natural hedging. In the case of derivatives use, forwards and swaps are by far the most important instruments in both countries, but futures as representatives of standardised derivatives and structured derivatives are more important in the Slovenian than in the Croatian companies.

Optimal Credit Rationing in Not-For-Profit Financial Institutions

We examine the dynamic optimization problem for not-for-profit financial institutions (NFPs) that maximize consumer surplus, not profits. We characterize the optimal dynamic policy and find that it involves credit rationing. Interest rates set by mature NFPs will typically be more favorable to customers than market rates, as any surplus is distributed in the form of interest rate subsidies, with credit rationing being required to prevent these subsidies from distorting loan volumes from their optimal levels. Rationing overcomes a fundamental problem in NFPs; it allows them to distribute the surplus without distorting the volume of activity from the efficient level.

Cost performance of Irish credit unions

There are 424 credit unions in Ireland with assets under their control of €14.3bn and a membership of 2.5m which equates to about 66% of the economically active population, the highest penetration level of any country. That said, the Irish movement sits at a critical development stage, well behind mature markets such as Canada and the US in terms of product provision, technological sophistication, fragmentation of trade bodies and regulatory environment. This study analyses relative cost efficiency or performance of Irish credit unions using the popular frontier approach which measures an entity’s efficiency relative to a frontier of best practice. Parametric techniques are utilised, with variation in inefficiency being attributed to credit union-specific factors. The stochastic cost frontier parameters and the credit-union specific parameters are simultaneously estimated to produce valid statistical inferences. The study finds that the majority of Irish credit unions are not operating at optimal levels. It further highlights the factors which drive efficiency variation across credit unions and they include technological sophistication, ‘sponsor donated’ resources, interest rate differentials and the levels of bad debt written off

Credit Unions: A Theoretical and Empirical Overview

In 2009 there were over 49,330 credit unions across 98 countries with more than 184 million members and approximately $1,354 billion in assets. There is a great diversity within the credit union movement across these countries. This reflects the various economic, historic and cultural contexts within which credit unions operate. This paper traces the evolution of the credit union movement. It examines credit union objectives, and considers issues relating to efficiency, technology adoption, product diversification, merger, failure and demutualization. The regulatory environment within which credit unions operate is also explored under the themes of interest rate regulation, common bond requirements, taxation, deposit insurance and capital regulation. The overview also considers demutualization and the costs and benefits to credit unions of altering their organizational form.

The Diffusion of Risks in Public Private Partnership Contracts

Purpose The UK government argues that the benefits of public private partnership (PPP) in delivering public infrastructure stem from: transferring risks to the private sector within a structure in which financiers put their own capital at risk; and, the performance based payment mechanism, reinforced by the due diligence requirements imposed by the lenders financing the projects (HM Treasury, 2010). Prior studies of risk in PPPs have investigated ‘what’ risks are allocated and to ‘whom’, that is to the public or the private sector. The purpose of this study is to examine ‘how’ and ‘why’ PPP risks are diffused by their financiers. Design/methodology/approach This study focuses on the financial structure of PPPs and on their financiers. Empirical evidence comes from interviews conducted with equity and debt financiers. Findings The findings show that the financial structure of the deals generates risk aversion in both debt and equity financiers and that the need to attract affordable finance leads to risk diffusion through a network of companies using various means that include contractual mitigation through insurance, performance support guarantees, interest rate swaps and inflation hedges. Because of the complexity this process generates, both procurers and suppliers need expensive expert advice. The risk aversion and diffusion and the consequent need for advice add cost to the projects impacting on the government’s economic argument for risk transfer. Limitations and implications The empirical work covers the private finance initiative (PFI) type of PPP arrangements and therefore the risk diffusion mechanisms may not be generalisable to other forms of PPP, especially those that do not involve the use of high leverage or private finance. Moreover, the scope of this research is limited to exploring the diffusion of risk in the private sector. Further research is needed on how risk is diffused in other settings and on the value for money implication of risk diffusion in PPP contracts. Originality/value The expectation inherent in PPP is that the private sector will better manage those risks allocated to it and because private capital is at risk, financiers will perform due diligence with the ultimate outcome that only viable projects will proceed. This paper presents empirical evidence that raises questions about these expectations. Key words: public private partnership, risk management, diffusion, private finance initiative, financiers

The Impact of Extension and Ecosystem Services on Smallholders’ Credit Constraint.

On formal credit markets, access to formal credit and reasonable credit terms of smallholder farmers
in rural sub-Saharan Africa is limited due to adverse selection. Financial institutions operating in
rural areas often cannot distinguish between borrowers (farmers) that are creditworthy and those that
are not, thus, allocate limited resource to agriculture to reduce credit risk. In the presence of limited business quality signaling by smallholder farmers, financial institutions shall demand for collateral and/or offer unfavorable contract terms. Moreover, agricultural productivity of rural sub-Saharan
Africa, dominated by subsistence or small-scale farmers, is also negatively impacted by the adverse
effect of climate change. A strategy that may make the farming practices of smallholder farmer’s
climate resilient and profitable may also improve smallholder farmer's access to formal credit. This
study investigates to what extent participating in ecosystem and extension services (EES) programs
signals business quality of smallholders, thus granting them credit accessibility. We collected data
on 210 smallholder farmers in 2013, comprising farmers that receive payments for ecosystem
services (PES) and farm management training from the International Small Group Tree Planting
Program (TIST) Kenya to test the aforementioned theory empirically. We use game theory,
particularly a screening and sorting model, to illustrate the prospects for farmers with EES to access
formal credit and to improve their credit terms given that they receive PES and banking services
training. Furthermore, the PES’ long term duration (10 – 30 years) generates stable cash-flow which
may be perceived as collateral substitute. Results suggest that smallholder farmers in the TIST
program were less likely to be credit constraint compared to non-TIST farmers. Distance to market,
education, livestock and farm income are factors that determine access to credit from microfinance
institutions in rural Kenya. Amongst farmers that have obtained loans, those keeping business records
enjoy more favorable formal credit conditions. These farmers were observed to pay ca. 5 percent less
interest rate in microfinance charges. For TIST farmers, this type of farm management practices may
be attributed to the banking services and other training they receive within the program. While the
availability of classical collateral (farmlands) and PES may reduce interest rate, the latter was found
to be statistically insignificant. This research underlines the importance of an effective extension
services in rural areas of developing countries and the need to improve gains from conservation
agriculture and ensuing PES. The benefits associated with EES and PES may encompass agricultural
financing.

Participation of Smallholders in Agroforestry Agri-Environmental Scheme: A lesson from the rural Mount Kenya region

The likelihood of smallholder farmers not participating in agroforestry agri-environmental schemes and payments for ecosystem services (PES) may be due to limited farmland endowment and formal credit constraints. These deficits may lead to an ‘exclusive club’ of successful farmers, which are not necessarily poor, enjoying the benefits of agri-environmental schemes and PES although agrienvironmental schemes and PES have been devised as a means of fostering rural sustainable development and improving the livelihood of poor smallholder farmers. Smallholder farmers in parts of rural Kenya continue to enroll in ‘The International Small Group Tree Planting Programme’ (TIST), an agri-environmental scheme, promoting agroforestry, carbon sequestration and conservation agriculture (CA). The question remains if these farmers are really poor? This study examines factors that determine the participation of smallholder farmers in TIST in parts of rural Kenya. We use survey data compiled in 2013 on 210 randomly selected smallholder farmers from Embu, Meru and Nanyuki communities; the sample consists of TIST and non-TIST members. A random utility model and logit regression were used to test a set of non-monetary and monetary factors that influence participation in the TIST. The utility function is conceptualized to give non-monetary factors, particularly the common medium of communication in rural areas – formal and informal – a central role. Furthermore, we investigate other factors (incl. credit accessibility and interest rate) that reveal the nature of farmers participating in TIST. The findings suggest that spread of information via formal and informal networks is a major driver of participation in the TIST program. Furthermore, variables such credit constrains, age and labour supply positively correlate with TIST participation, while for education the opposite is true. It is important to mention that these correlations, although somewhat consistent, were all found to be weak. The results indicate that participation in the TIST program is not influenced by farm size; therefore we argue that the TIST scheme is NOT an ‘exclusive club’ comprising wealthy and successful farmers. Older farmers’ being more likely to join the TIST is an argument for their long- rather than widely assumed short-term planning horizon and a new contribution to the literature. Given the importance of poverty alleviation and climate smart agriculture in developing countries, sustainable policy should strengthening the social and human capital as well as informal networks in rural areas. Extension services should effectively communicate benefits to less educated and credit constrained farmers.

Hotel Valuation Software, Version 4.0

[Updated August 2016] The Hotel Valuation Software, freely available from Cornell’s Center for Hospitality Research, has been updated to reflect the many changes in the 11th Edition of the Uniform System of Accounts for the Lodging Industry (USALI). Version 4.0 of the Hotel Valuation Software provides numerous enhancements over the original tool from 2011. In addition to a significant increase in functionality and an update to reflect the 11th edition of the USALI, Version 4.0 takes advantage of the power of the latest release of Microsoft Excel®. Note that Version 4.0 works only on a PC running Microsoft Windows, it does not work on a Mac running OS X. Users desiring an OS X compatible version should click here (Labeled as Version 2.5). 酒店评估软件手册和三个程序（点击这里 ) Users desiring a Mandarin version of the Hotel Valuation Software should click here The Hotel Valuation Software remains the only non-proprietary computer software designed specifically to assist in the preparation of market studies, forecasts of income and expense, and valuations for lodging property. The software provides an accurate, consistent, and cost-effective way for hospitality professionals to forecast occupancy, revenues and expenses and to perform hotel valuations. Version 4.0 of the Hotel Valuation Software includes the following upgrades – a complete update to reflect the 11th edition of the USALI – the most significant change to the chart of accounts in a generation, an average daily rate forecasting tool, a much more sophisticated valuation module, and an optional valuation tool useful in periods of limited capital liquidity. Using established methodology, the Hotel Valuation Software is a sophisticated tool for lodging professionals. The tool consists of three separate software programs written as Microsoft Excel files and a software users' guide. The tool is provided through the generosity of HVS and the School of Hotel Administration. The three software modules are: Room Night Analysis and Average Daily Rate: Enables the analyst to evaluate the various competitive factors such as occupancy, average room rate, and market segmentation for competitive hotels in a local market. Calculates the area-wide occupancy and average room rate, as well as the competitive market mix. Produce a forecast of occupancy and average daily rate for existing and proposed hotels in a local market. The program incorporates such factors as competitive occupancies, market segmentation, unaccommodated demand, latent demand, growth of demand, and the relative competitiveness of each property in the local market. The program outputs include ten-year projections of occupancy and average daily rate. Fixed and Variable Revenue and Expense Analysis: The key to any market study and valuation is a supportable forecast of revenues and expenses. Hotel revenue and expenses are comprised of many different components that display certain fixed and variable relationships to each other. This program enables the analyst to input comparable financial operating data and forecast a complete 11-year income and expense statement by defining a small set of inputs: The expected future occupancy levels for the subject hotel Base year operating data for the subject hotel Fixed and variable relationships for revenues and expenses Expected inflation rates for revenues and expenses Hotel Capitalization Software: A discounted cash flow valuation model utilizing the mortgage-equity technique forms the basis for this program. Values are produced using three distinct underwriting criteria: A loan-to-value ratio, in which the size of the mortgage is based on property value. A debt coverage ratio (also known as a debt-service coverage ratio), in which the size of the mortgage is based on property level cash flow, mortgage interest rate, and mortgage amortization. A debt yield, in which the size of the mortgage is based on property level cash flow. By entering the terms of typical lodging financing, along with a forecast of revenue and expense, the program determines the value that provides the stated returns to the mortgage and equity components. The program allows for a variable holding period from four to ten years The program includes an optional model useful during periods of capital market illiquidity that assumes a property refinancing during the holding period

HOTVal Toolkit

**************************************************************************** Scroll down to "Additional Files" to access the HOTVal Toolkit. **************************************************************************** HOTVal is a hotel valuation spreadsheet based on a regression model discussed in the Center for Real Estate and Finance at Cornell called Cornell Hotel Indices: Second Quarter 2012: The Trend is Our Friend by Crocker H. Liu, Adam D. Nowak, and Robert M. White, Jr. The model which will be continually updated, provides a rough estimation of the value of a hotel property once the user inputs information on whether the hotel is a large or small hotel, the year and quarter of the valuation, the state where the property is located, the number of rooms, the number of floors, the land area of the hotel property, the actual age of the hotel and whether the hotel is located in a Gateway city. For the first three inputs as well as the last input, if the user clicks on a cell highlighted in yellow, a pull down menu will appear to expedite inputting. The model is provided as a free public service by The Center for Real Estate and Finance at the School of Hotel Administration at Cornell University to academics and practitioners on an as-is, best-effort basis with no warranties or claims regarding its usefulness or implications. The estimates should be considered preliminary and subject to revision. *This October 2016 version updates the previous Hotel Valuation model, published in 2012 , provides valuation estimates up to and including the third quarter of 2016.