Hybrid Water Demand Forecasting Model Associating Artificial Neural Network with Fourier Series

This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Hybrid heuristic-waterfilling game theory approach in MC-CDMA resource allocation

This paper discusses the power allocation with fixed rate constraint problem in multi-carrier code division multiple access (MC-CDMA) networks, that has been solved through game theoretic perspective by the use of an iterative water-filling algorithm (IWFA). The problem is analyzed under various interference density configurations, and its reliability is studied in terms of solution existence and uniqueness. Moreover, numerical results reveal the approach shortcoming, thus a new method combining swarm intelligence and IWFA is proposed to make practicable the use of game theoretic approaches in realistic MC-CDMA systems scenarios. The contribution of this paper is twofold: (i) provide a complete analysis for the existence and uniqueness of the game solution, from simple to more realist and complex interference scenarios; (ii) propose a hybrid power allocation optimization method combining swarm intelligence, game theory and IWFA. To corroborate the effectiveness of the proposed method, an outage probability analysis in realistic interference scenarios, and a complexity comparison with the classical IWFA are presented. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Structural analysis of combinatorial optimization problem characteristics and their resolution using hybrid approaches

Many combinatorial problems coming from the real world may not have a clear and well defined structure, typically being dirtied by side constraints, or being composed of two or more sub-problems, usually not disjoint. Such problems are not suitable to be solved with pure approaches based on a single programming paradigm, because a paradigm that can effectively face a problem characteristic may behave inefficiently when facing other characteristics. In these cases, modelling the problem using different programming techniques, trying to ”take the best” from each technique, can produce solvers that largely dominate pure approaches. We demonstrate the effectiveness of hybridization and we discuss about different hybridization techniques by analyzing two classes of problems with particular structures, exploiting Constraint Programming and Integer Linear Programming solving tools and Algorithm Portfolios and Logic Based Benders Decomposition as integration and hybridization frameworks.

Analysis of human body kinematics using a hybrid markerless video acquisition and processing

A main objective of the human movement analysis is the quantitative description of joint kinematics and kinetics. This information may have great possibility to address clinical problems both in orthopaedics and motor rehabilitation. Previous studies have shown that the assessment of kinematics and kinetics from stereophotogrammetric data necessitates a setup phase, special equipment and expertise to operate. Besides, this procedure may cause feeling of uneasiness on the subjects and may hinder with their walking. The general aim of this thesis is the implementation and evaluation of new 2D markerless techniques, in order to contribute to the development of an alternative technique to the traditional stereophotogrammetric techniques. At first, the focus of the study has been the estimation of the ankle-foot complex kinematics during stance phase of the gait. Two particular cases were considered: subjects barefoot and subjects wearing ankle socks. The use of socks was investigated in view of the development of the hybrid method proposed in this work. Different algorithms were analyzed, evaluated and implemented in order to have a 2D markerless solution to estimate the kinematics for both cases. The validation of the proposed technique was done with a traditional stereophotogrammetric system. The implementation of the technique leads towards an easy to configure (and more comfortable for the subject) alternative to the traditional stereophotogrammetric system. Then, the abovementioned technique has been improved so that the measurement of knee flexion/extension could be done with a 2D markerless technique. The main changes on the implementation were on occlusion handling and background segmentation. With the additional constraints, the proposed technique was applied to the estimation of knee flexion/extension and compared with a traditional stereophotogrammetric system. Results showed that the knee flexion/extension estimation from traditional stereophotogrammetric system and the proposed markerless system were highly comparable, making the latter a potential alternative for clinical use. A contribution has also been given in the estimation of lower limb kinematics of the children with cerebral palsy (CP). For this purpose, a hybrid technique, which uses high-cut underwear and ankle socks as “segmental markers” in combination with a markerless methodology, was proposed. The proposed hybrid technique is different than the abovementioned markerless technique in terms of the algorithm chosen. Results showed that the proposed hybrid technique can become a simple and low-cost alternative to the traditional stereophotogrammetric systems.

Comparative Analysis of Alternative Hybrid Systems for Automotive Applications

The main objective of this work was to investigate the impact of different hybridization concepts and levels of hybridization on fuel economy of a standard road vehicle where both conventional and non-conventional hybrid architectures are treated exactly in the same way from the point of view of overall energy flow optimization. Hybrid component models were developed and presented in detail as well as the simulations results mainly for NEDC cycle. The analysis was performed on four different parallel hybrid powertrain concepts: Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV), High Speed Flywheel Hybrid Vehicle (HSF-HV), Hydraulic Hybrid Vehicle (HHV) and Pneumatic Hybrid Vehicle (PHV). In order to perform equitable analysis of different hybrid systems, comparison was performed also on the basis of the same usable system energy storage capacity (i.e. 625kJ for HEV, HSF and the HHV) but in the case of pneumatic hybrid systems maximal storage capacity was limited by the size of the systems in order to comply with the packaging requirements of the vehicle. The simulations were performed within the IAV Gmbh - VeLoDyn software simulator based on Matlab / Simulink software package. Advanced cycle independent control strategy (ECMS) was implemented into the hybrid supervisory control unit in order to solve power management problem for all hybrid powertrain solutions. In order to maintain State of Charge within desired boundaries during different cycles and to facilitate easy implementation and recalibration of the control strategy for very different hybrid systems, Charge Sustaining Algorithm was added into the ECMS framework. Also, a Variable Shift Pattern VSP-ECMS algorithm was proposed as an extension of ECMS capabilities so as to include gear selection into the determination of minimal (energy) cost function of the hybrid system. Further, cycle-based energetic analysis was performed in all the simulated cases, and the results have been reported in the corresponding chapters.

Numerical optimization,modeling and system evaluation of a thermophotovoltaic hybrid panel

Photovoltaic (PV) solar panels generally produce electricity in the 6% to 16% efficiency range, the rest being dissipated in thermal losses. To recover this amount, hybrid photovoltaic thermal systems (PVT) have been devised. These are devices that simultaneously convert solar energy into electricity and heat. It is thus interesting to study the PVT system globally from different point of views in order to evaluate advantages and disadvantages of this technology and its possible uses. In particular in Chapter II, the development of the PVT absorber numerical optimization by a genetic algorithm has been carried out analyzing different internal channel profiles in order to find a right compromise between performance and technical and economical feasibility. Therefore in Chapter III ,thanks to a mobile structure built into the university lab, it has been compared experimentally electrical and thermal output power from PVT panels with separated photovoltaic and solar thermal productions. Collecting a lot of experimental data based on different seasonal conditions (ambient temperature,irradiation, wind...),the aim of this mobile structure has been to evaluate average both thermal and electrical increasing and decreasing efficiency values obtained respect to separate productions through the year. In Chapter IV , new PVT and solar thermal equation based models in steady state conditions have been developed by software Dymola that uses Modelica language. This permits ,in a simplified way respect to previous system modelling softwares, to model and evaluate different concepts about PVT panel regarding its structure before prototyping and measuring it. Chapter V concerns instead the definition of PVT boundary conditions into a HVAC system . This was made trough year simulations by software Polysun in order to finally assess the best solar assisted integrated structure thanks to F_save(solar saving energy)factor. Finally, Chapter VI presents the conclusion and the perspectives of this PhD work.

A Hybrid Multimodal Non-Rigid Registration of MR Images Based on Diffeomorphic Demons

n this paper we present a novel hybrid approach for multimodal medical image registration based on diffeomorphic demons. Diffeomorphic demons have proven to be a robust and efficient way for intensity-based image registration. A very recent extension even allows to use mutual information (MI) as a similarity measure to registration multimodal images. However, due to the intensity correspondence uncertainty existing in some anatomical parts, it is difficult for a purely intensity-based algorithm to solve the registration problem. Therefore, we propose to combine the resulting transformations from both intensity-based and landmark-based methods for multimodal non-rigid registration based on diffeomorphic demons. Several experiments on different types of MR images were conducted, for which we show that a better anatomical correspondence between the images can be obtained using the hybrid approach than using either intensity information or landmarks alone.

Squared Extrapolation Methods (SQUAREM): A New Class of Simple and Efficient Numerical Schemes for Accelerating the Convergence of the EM Algorithm

We derive a new class of iterative schemes for accelerating the convergence of the EM algorithm, by exploiting the connection between fixed point iterations and extrapolation methods. First, we present a general formulation of one-step iterative schemes, which are obtained by cycling with the extrapolation methods. We, then square the one-step schemes to obtain the new class of methods, which we call SQUAREM. Squaring a one-step iterative scheme is simply applying it twice within each cycle of the extrapolation method. Here we focus on the first order or rank-one extrapolation methods for two reasons, (1) simplicity, and (2) computational efficiency. In particular, we study two first order extrapolation methods, the reduced rank extrapolation (RRE1) and minimal polynomial extrapolation (MPE1). The convergence of the new schemes, both one-step and squared, is non-monotonic with respect to the residual norm. The first order one-step and SQUAREM schemes are linearly convergent, like the EM algorithm but they have a faster rate of convergence. We demonstrate, through five different examples, the effectiveness of the first order SQUAREM schemes, SqRRE1 and SqMPE1, in accelerating the EM algorithm. The SQUAREM schemes are also shown to be vastly superior to their one-step counterparts, RRE1 and MPE1, in terms of computational efficiency. The proposed extrapolation schemes can fail due to the numerical problems of stagnation and near breakdown. We have developed a new hybrid iterative scheme that combines the RRE1 and MPE1 schemes in such a manner that it overcomes both stagnation and near breakdown. The squared first order hybrid scheme, SqHyb1, emerges as the iterative scheme of choice based on our numerical experiments. It combines the fast convergence of the SqMPE1, while avoiding near breakdowns, with the stability of SqRRE1, while avoiding stagnations. The SQUAREM methods can be incorporated very easily into an existing EM algorithm. They only require the basic EM step for their implementation and do not require any other auxiliary quantities such as the complete data log likelihood, and its gradient or hessian. They are an attractive option in problems with a very large number of parameters, and in problems where the statistical model is complex, the EM algorithm is slow and each EM step is computationally demanding.

A Faster Circular Binary Segmentation Algorithm for the Analysis of Array CGH Data

Motivation: Array CGH technologies enable the simultaneous measurement of DNA copy number for thousands of sites on a genome. We developed the circular binary segmentation (CBS) algorithm to divide the genome into regions of equal copy number (Olshen {\it et~al}, 2004). The algorithm tests for change-points using a maximal $t$-statistic with a permutation reference distribution to obtain the corresponding $p$-value. The number of computations required for the maximal test statistic is $O(N^2),$ where $N$ is the number of markers. This makes the full permutation approach computationally prohibitive for the newer arrays that contain tens of thousands markers and highlights the need for a faster. algorithm. Results: We present a hybrid approach to obtain the $p$-value of the test statistic in linear time. We also introduce a rule for stopping early when there is strong evidence for the presence of a change. We show through simulations that the hybrid approach provides a substantial gain in speed with only a negligible loss in accuracy and that the stopping rule further increases speed. We also present the analysis of array CGH data from a breast cancer cell line to show the impact of the new approaches on the analysis of real data. Availability: An R (R Development Core Team, 2006) version of the CBS algorithm has been implemented in the ``DNAcopy'' package of the Bioconductor project (Gentleman {\it et~al}, 2004). The proposed hybrid method for the $p$-value is available in version 1.2.1 or higher and the stopping rule for declaring a change early is available in version 1.5.1 or higher.

GRASP with Hybrid Path Relinking for Bi-Objective Winner Determination in Combinatorial Transportation Auctions

The procurement of transportation services via large-scale combinatorial auctions involves a couple of complex decisions whose outcome highly influences the performance of the tender process. This paper examines the shipper's task of selecting a subset of the submitted bids which efficiently trades off total procurement cost against expected carrier performance. To solve this bi-objective winner determination problem, we propose a Pareto-based greedy randomized adaptive search procedure (GRASP). As a post-optimizer we use a path relinking procedure which is hybridized with branch-and-bound. Several variants of this algorithm are evaluated by means of artificial test instances which comply with important real-world characteristics. The two best variants prove superior to a previously published Pareto-based evolutionary algorithm.

Hybrid stochastic simulations of intracellular reaction-diffusion systems.

With the observation that stochasticity is important in biological systems, chemical kinetics have begun to receive wider interest. While the use of Monte Carlo discrete event simulations most accurately capture the variability of molecular species, they become computationally costly for complex reaction-diffusion systems with large populations of molecules. On the other hand, continuous time models are computationally efficient but they fail to capture any variability in the molecular species. In this study a hybrid stochastic approach is introduced for simulating reaction-diffusion systems. We developed an adaptive partitioning strategy in which processes with high frequency are simulated with deterministic rate-based equations, and those with low frequency using the exact stochastic algorithm of Gillespie. Therefore the stochastic behavior of cellular pathways is preserved while being able to apply it to large populations of molecules. We describe our method and demonstrate its accuracy and efficiency compared with the Gillespie algorithm for two different systems. First, a model of intracellular viral kinetics with two steady states and second, a compartmental model of the postsynaptic spine head for studying the dynamics of Ca+2 and NMDA receptors.

Hybrid Approach Combining Machine Learning and a Rule-Based Expert System for Text Categorization

This paper discusses a novel hybrid approach for text categorization that combines a machine learning algorithm, which provides a base model trained with a labeled corpus, with a rule-based expert system, which is used to improve the results provided by the previous classifier, by filtering false positives and dealing with false negatives. The main advantage is that the system can be easily fine-tuned by adding specific rules for those noisy or conflicting categories that have not been successfully trained. We also describe an implementation based on k-Nearest Neighbor and a simple rule language to express lists of positive, negative and relevant (multiword) terms appearing in the input text. The system is evaluated in several scenarios, including the popular Reuters-21578 news corpus for comparison to other approaches, and categorization using IPTC metadata, EUROVOC thesaurus and others. Results show that this approach achieves a precision that is comparable to top ranked methods, with the added value that it does not require a demanding human expert workload to train

Hybrid incremental modeling based on least squares and fuzzy K-NN for monitoring tool wear in turning processes

There is now an emerging need for an efficient modeling strategy to develop a new generation of monitoring systems. One method of approaching the modeling of complex processes is to obtain a global model. It should be able to capture the basic or general behavior of the system, by means of a linear or quadratic regression, and then superimpose a local model on it that can capture the localized nonlinearities of the system. In this paper, a novel method based on a hybrid incremental modeling approach is designed and applied for tool wear detection in turning processes. It involves a two-step iterative process that combines a global model with a local model to take advantage of their underlying, complementary capacities. Thus, the first step constructs a global model using a least squares regression. A local model using the fuzzy k-nearest-neighbors smoothing algorithm is obtained in the second step. A comparative study then demonstrates that the hybrid incremental model provides better error-based performance indices for detecting tool wear than a transductive neurofuzzy model and an inductive neurofuzzy model.

A novel hybrid simulation-optimization approach for the optimal design of multicomponent distillation columns

Póster presentado en Escape 22, European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering, University College London, UK, 17-20 June 2012.