A method for automatically eliciting node weights in a hierarchical knowledge-based structure for reasoning with uncertainty

Hierarchical knowledge structures are frequently used within clinical decision support systems as part of the model for generating intelligent advice. The nodes in the hierarchy inevitably have varying influence on the decisionmaking processes, which needs to be reflected by parameters. If the model has been elicited from human experts, it is not feasible to ask them to estimate the parameters because there will be so many in even moderately-sized structures. This paper describes how the parameters could be obtained from data instead, using only a small number of cases. The original method [1] is applied to a particular web-based clinical decision support system called GRiST, which uses its hierarchical knowledge to quantify the risks associated with mental-health problems. The knowledge was elicited from multidisciplinary mental-health practitioners but the tree has several thousand nodes, all requiring an estimation of their relative influence on the assessment process. The method described in the paper shows how they can be obtained from about 200 cases instead. It greatly reduces the experts’ elicitation tasks and has the potential for being generalised to similar knowledge-engineering domains where relative weightings of node siblings are part of the parameter space.

Stochastic structure and individual-tree growth models

The majority of past and current individual-tree growth modelling methodologies have failed to characterise and incorporate structured stochastic components. Rather, they have relied on deterministic predictions or have added an unstructured random component to predictions. In particular, spatial stochastic structure has been neglected, despite being present in most applications of individual-tree growth models. Spatial stochastic structure (also called spatial dependence or spatial autocorrelation) eventuates when spatial influences such as competition and micro-site effects are not fully captured in models. Temporal stochastic structure (also called temporal dependence or temporal autocorrelation) eventuates when a sequence of measurements is taken on an individual-tree over time, and variables explaining temporal variation in these measurements are not included in the model. Nested stochastic structure eventuates when measurements are combined across sampling units and differences among the sampling units are not fully captured in the model. This review examines spatial, temporal, and nested stochastic structure and instances where each has been characterised in the forest biometry and statistical literature. Methodologies for incorporating stochastic structure in growth model estimation and prediction are described. Benefits from incorporation of stochastic structure include valid statistical inference, improved estimation efficiency, and more realistic and theoretically sound predictions. It is proposed in this review that individual-tree modelling methodologies need to characterise and include structured stochasticity. Possibilities for future research are discussed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Hierarchical determinants of capital structure

We analyze the influence of time-, firm-, industry- and country-level determinants of capital structure. First, we apply hierarchical linear modeling in order to assess the relative importance of those levels. We find that time and firm levels explain 78% of firm leverage. Second, we include random intercepts and random coefficients in order to analyze the direct and indirect influences of firm/industry/country characteristics on firm leverage. We document several important indirect influences of variables at industry and country-levels on firm determinants of leverage, as well as several structural differences in the financial behavior between firms of developed and emerging countries. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear behavior of gelatin networks reveals a hierarchical structure

We investigate the strain hardening behavior of various gelatin networks-namely physical gelatin gel, chemically cross-linked gelatin gel, and a hybrid gel made of a combination of the former two-under large shear deformations using the pre-stress, strain ramp, and large amplitude oscillations shear protocols. Further, the internal structures of physical gelatin gels and chemically cross-linked gelatin gels were characterized by small angle neutron scattering (SANS) to enable their internal structures to be correlated with their nonlinear rheology. The Kratky plots of SANS data demonstrate the presence of small cross-linked aggregates within the chemically cross-linked network whereas, in the physical gelatin gels, a relatively homogeneous structure is observed. Through model fitting to the scattering data, we were able to obtain structural parameters, such as the correlation length (ξ), the cross-sectional polymer chain radius (Rc) and the fractal dimension (df) of the gel networks. The fractal dimension df obtained from the SANS data of the physical and chemically cross-linked gels is 1.31 and 1.53, respectively. These values are in excellent agreement with the ones obtained from a generalized nonlinear elastic theory that has been used to fit the stress-strain curves. The chemical cross-linking that generates coils and aggregates hinders the free stretching of the triple helix bundles in the physical gels.

Density-based hierarchical clustering of pyro-sequences on a large scale--the case of fungal ITS1.

MOTIVATION: Analysis of millions of pyro-sequences is currently playing a crucial role in the advance of environmental microbiology. Taxonomy-independent, i.e. unsupervised, clustering of these sequences is essential for the definition of Operational Taxonomic Units. For this application, reproducibility and robustness should be the most sought after qualities, but have thus far largely been overlooked. RESULTS: More than 1 million hyper-variable internal transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1) sequences of fungal origin have been analyzed. The ITS1 sequences were first properly extracted from 454 reads using generalized profiles. Then, otupipe, cd-hit-454, ESPRIT-Tree and DBC454, a new algorithm presented here, were used to analyze the sequences. A numerical assay was developed to measure the reproducibility and robustness of these algorithms. DBC454 was the most robust, closely followed by ESPRIT-Tree. DBC454 features density-based hierarchical clustering, which complements the other methods by providing insights into the structure of the data. AVAILABILITY: An executable is freely available for non-commercial users at ftp://ftp.vital-it.ch/tools/dbc454. It is designed to run under MPI on a cluster of 64-bit Linux machines running Red Hat 4.x, or on a multi-core OSX system. CONTACT: dbc454@vital-it.ch or nicolas.guex@isb-sib.ch.

Diversity and structure of the tree community of a fragment of tropical secondary forest of the brazilian Atlantic Forest domain 15 and 40 years after logging

Two adjacent tracts of tropical secondary forest, situated in Itambé do Mato Dentro, south-eastern Brazil, which had been regenerating for 15 and 40 years after clearing, were compared with the purpose of detecting differences in species diversity and composition, species guild composition (regeneration, stratification and dispersion), and stand structure. Four and three 1,125 m² plots laid on the 15- and 40-year-old stands, respectively, sampled 2,430 trees with diameter at the base of the stem > 5 cm. The number of species (S = 199) was high for this forest type and significantly higher for the older stand. Tree density was significantly higher in the younger stand, particularly for smaller trees, whereas the two stands did not differ in both basal area and volume per hectare. Trees of shade-tolerant and understory species were significantly more abundant in the older stand. Though sharing a large proportion of species (49%), the two stands differed significantly in the abundance of many species. Live stumps probably contributed to the relatively quick restoration of some forest characteristics, particularly species diversity, basal area and volume.

Horizontal and vertical tree community structure in a lowland atlantic rain forest, southeastern Brazil

The horizontal and vertical tree community structure in a lowland Atlantic Rain Forest was investigated through a phytosociological survey in two 0.99 ha plots in the Intervales State Park, São Paulo State. All trees > 5 cm diameter at breast height were recorded. 3,078 individuals belonging to 172 species were identified and recorded. The Shannon diversity index was H' = 3.85 nat.ind.-1. The Myrtaceae family showed the greatest floristic richness (38 species) and the highest density (745 individuals) in the stand. Euterpe edulis Mart. had the highest importance value (33.98%) accounting for 21.8% of all individuals recorded. The quantitative similarity index was higher than the qualitative index, showing little structural variation between plots. However, the large number of uncommon species resulted in pronounced floristic differences. A detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) generated three arbitrary vertical strata. Stratum A (> 26 m), where Sloanea guianensis (Aubl.) Benth. and Virola bicuhyba (Schott. ex A.DC.) Warb. were predominant showed the lowest density. Stratum B (8 m < h < 26 m) had the greatest richness and diversity, and stratum C (< 8 m) showed the highest density. Euterpe edulis, Guapira opposita (Vell.) Reitz, Garcinia gardneriana (Planch. & Triana) Zappi, and Eugenia mosenii (Kausel) Sobral were abundant in strata B and C. The occurrence of strata in tropical forests is discussed and we recommend the use of DCA for others studies of the vertical distribution of tropical forest tree communities.

Influence of edaphic variables on the floristic composition and structure of the tree-shrub vegetation in typical and rocky outcrop cerrado areas in Serra Negra, Goiás State, Brazil

The present study analyzed the influence of edaphic variables on the floristic compositions and structures of the arboreal and shrub vegetation of typical cerrado (TC) and rocky outcrop cerrado (RC) communities in the Serra Negra mountain range in Piranhas Municipality, Goiás State, Brazil. Ten 20×50m plots were established in each community, and all individuals with minimum diameters ³5cm measured at 30cm above soil level were sampled. Composite soil samples were collected at 0-20cm depths in each plot for physical and chemical analyses. The proportions of above-ground rock cover work also estimated in each RC plot. A total of 2,009 individuals (83 species, 69 genera, and 34 families) were recorded. Qualea parviflora was the only species consistently among the 10 most structurally important taxa in both communities, and was considered a generalist species. The observed and estimated species richnesses were greater in RC than in TC, although plant basal areas and heights did not differ between them. There were positive correlations between rock cover×plant density and rock cover×basal areas. TWINSPAN and PCA analysis separated the TC and RC plots, and three RC habitat specialist species (Wunderlichia mirabilis, Norantea guianensis, and Tibouchina papyrus) were identified. Soil variables were found to have greater effects on the species compositions of the TC and RC sites than the geographic distances between sampling plots. According to CCA analysis, the exclusive (or more abundant species) of each community were correlated with soil variables, and these variables therefore determined the selection of some species and influenced the differentiation of the vegetation structures of the communities studied.

The relationship between stem-form, stand-closure and site -conditions : the influence of environmental conditions on tree allometry and forest structure in west-central Alberta

Changes in the configuration of a tree stern result insignificant differences in its total volume and in the proportion of that volume that is merchantable timber. Tree allometry, as represented by stem-fo~, is the result of the vertical force of gravity and the horizontal force of wind. The effect of wind force is demonstrated in the relationship between stem-form, standclosure and site-conditions. An increase in wind force on the individual tree due to a decrease in stand density should produce a more tapered tree. The density of the stand is determined by the conditions that the trees are growing under. The ability of the tree to respond to increased wind force may also be a function of these conditions . This stem-form/stand-closure/site-conditions relationship was examined using a pre-existing database from westcentral Alberta. This database consisted of environmental, vegetation, soils and timber data covering a wide range of sites. There were 653 sample trees with 82 variables that formed the basis of the analysis. There were eight tree species consisting of Pinus contorta, Picea mariana, Picea engelmannii x glauca, Abies lasiocarpa, Larix laricina, Populus tremuloides, Betula papyrifera and Populus balsamifera plus a comprehensive all-species data set. As the actual conformation of the stern is very individual, stem-fo~was represented by the diameter at breast height to total height r~tio. The four stand-closure variables, crown closure, total basal area, total volume and total number of stems were reduced to total basal area and total number of stems utilizing a bivariate correlation matrix by species. Site-conditions were subdivided into macro, meso and micro variables and reduced in number 3 using cross-tabulations, bivariate correlation and principal components analysis as screening tools. The stem-fo~/stand-closure relationship was examined using bivariate correlation coefficients for stem-fo~ with total number of stems and stem-fo~ with total basal area. The stem-fo~/site-conditions and the stand-closure/site- conditions relationships were examined using multiple correlation coefficients. The stem-form/stand-closure/site-conditions relationship was examined using multiple correlation coefficients in separate analyses for both total number of stems and total basal area. An increase in stand-closure produced a decrease in stem-form for both total number of stems and total basal area for most species. There was a significant relationship between stem-form and site-conditions and between stand-closure and site-conditions for both total number of stems and total basal area for most species. There was a significant relationship between the stemform and site-conditions, including the stand-closure, for most species; total number of stems was involved independently of the site-conditions in the prediction of stem-form and total basal area was not. Larix laricina and Betula papyrifera were the exceptions to the trends observed with most species. The influence of both stand-closure (total number of stems in particular) and site-conditions (elevation in particular) suggest that forest management practices should include these- ecological parameters in determining appropriate restocking levels.

Recent patterns of change in vegetation structure and tree composition of British broadleaved woodland: evidence from large-scale surveys

Evidence is presented of widespread changes in structure and species composition between the 1980s and 2003–2004 from surveys of 249 British broadleaved woodlands. Structural components examined include canopy cover, vertical vegetation profiles, field-layer cover and deadwood abundance. Woods were located in 13 geographical localities and the patterns of change were examined for each locality as well as across all woods. Changes were not uniform throughout the localities; overall, there were significant decreases in canopy cover and increases in sub-canopy (2–10 m) cover. Changes in 0.5–2 m vegetation cover showed strong geographic patterns, increasing in western localities, but declining or showing no change in eastern localities. There were significant increases in canopy ash Fraxinus excelsior and decreases in oak Quercus robur/petraea. Shrub layer ash and honeysuckle Lonicera periclymenum increased while birch Betula spp. hawthorn Crataegus monogyna and hazel Corylus avellana declined. Within the field layer, both bracken Pteridium aquilinum and herbs increased. Overall, deadwood generally increased. Changes were consistent with reductions in active woodland management and changes in grazing and browsing pressure. These findings have important implications for sustainable active management of British broadleaved woodlands to meet silvicultural and biodiversity objectives.

Optimal control of a class of discrete–continuous non-linear systems — decomposition and hierarchical structure

A technique is derived for solving a non-linear optimal control problem by iterating on a sequence of simplified problems in linear quadratic form. The technique is designed to achieve the correct solution of the original non-linear optimal control problem in spite of these simplifications. A mixed approach with a discrete performance index and continuous state variable system description is used as the basis of the design, and it is shown how the global problem can be decomposed into local sub-system problems and a co-ordinator within a hierarchical framework. An analysis of the optimality and convergence properties of the algorithm is presented and the effectiveness of the technique is demonstrated using a simulation example with a non-separable performance index.