The Persistence of Inflation in OECDCountries: a Fractionally Integrated Approach

The statistical properties of inflation and, in particular, its degree of persistence and stability over time is a subject of intense debate and no consensus has been achieved yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze this controversy using a general approach, with the aim of providing a plausible explanation for the existing contradictory results. We consider the inflation rates of 21 OECD countries which are modelled as fractionally integrated (FI) processes. First, we show analytically that FI can appear in inflation rates after aggregating individual prices from firms that face different costs of adjusting their prices. Then, we provide robust empirical evidence supporting the FI hypothesis using both classical and Bayesian techniques. Next, we estimate impulse response functions and other scalar measures of persistence, achieving an accurate picture of this property and its variation across countries. It is shown that the application of some popular tools for measuring persistence, such as the sum of the AR coefficients, could lead to erroneous conclusions if fractional integration is present. Finally, we explore the existence of changes in inflation inertia using a novel approach. We conclude that the persistence of inflation is very high (although non-permanent) in most post-industrial countries and that it has remained basically unchanged over the last four decades.

The persistence of abnormal returns at industry and firm levels

The present paper proposes a model for the persistence of abnormal returnsboth at firm and industry levels, when longitudinal data for the profitsof firms classiffied as industries are available. The model produces a two-way variance decomposition of abnormal returns: (a) at firm versus industrylevels, and (b) for permanent versus transitory components. This variancedecomposition supplies information on the relative importance of thefundamental components of abnormal returns that have been discussed in theliterature. The model is applied to a Spanish sample of firms, obtainingresults such as: (a) there are significant and permanent differences betweenprofit rates both at industry and firm levels; (b) variation of abnormal returnsat firm level is greater than at industry level; and (c) firm and industry levelsdo not differ significantly regarding rates of convergence of abnormal returns.

The persistence of inflation in OECD countries: A fractionally integrated approach

The statistical properties of inflation and, in particular, its degree of persistence and stability over time is a subject of intense debate and no consensus has been achieved yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze this controversy using a general approach, with the aim of providing a plausible explanation for the existing contradictory results. We consider the inflation rates of 21 OECD countries which are modelled as fractionally integrated (FI) processes. First, we show analytically that FI can appear in inflation rates after aggregating individual prices from firms that face different costs of adjusting their prices. Then, we provide robust empirical evidence supporting the FI hypothesis using both classical and Bayesian techniques. Next, we estimate impulse response functions and other scalar measures of persistence, achieving an accurate picture of this property and its variation across countries. It is shown that the application of some popular tools for measuring persistence, such as the sum of the AR coefficients, could lead to erroneous conclusions if fractional integration is present. Finally, we explore the existence of changes in inflation inertia using a novel approach. We conclude that the persistence of inflation is very high (although non-permanent) in most post-industrial countries and that it has remained basically unchanged over the last four decades.

New evidence on inflation persistence and price stickiness in the Euro area: Implications for macro modelling

This paper evaluates new evidence on price setting practices and inflation persistence in the euro area with respect to its implications for macro modelling. It argues that several of the most commonly used assumptions in micro-founded macro models are seriously challenged by the new findings.

Is the observed persistence spurious? A test for fractional integration versus short memory and structural breaks

Although it is commonly accepted that most macroeconomic variables are nonstationary, it is often difficult to identify the source of the non-stationarity. In particular, it is well-known that integrated and short memory models containing trending components that may display sudden changes in their parameters share some statistical properties that make their identification a hard task. The goal of this paper is to extend the classical testing framework for I(1) versus I(0)+ breaks by considering a a more general class of models under the null hypothesis: non-stationary fractionally integrated (FI) processes. A similar identification problem holds in this broader setting which is shown to be a relevant issue from both a statistical and an economic perspective. The proposed test is developed in the time domain and is very simple to compute. The asymptotic properties of the new technique are derived and it is shown by simulation that it is very well-behaved in finite samples. To illustrate the usefulness of the proposed technique, an application using inflation data is also provided.

Persistence of ultrasound synovitis in patients with rheumatoid arthritis fulfilling the DAS28 and/or the new ACR/EULAR RA remission definitions: results of an observational cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: The primary aim of the study was to evaluate whether rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients considered to be in remission according to clinical criteria sets still had persisting ultrasound (US) synovitis. We further intended to evaluate the capacity of our US score to discriminate between the patients with a clinically active disease versus those in remission. METHODS: This is an observational study nested within the Swiss Clinical Quality Management in Rheumatic Diseases (SCQM) rheumatoid arthritis cohort. A validated US score (SONAR score) based on a semi-quantitative B-mode and Doppler (PwD) score as part of the regular clinical workup by rheumatologists in different clinical settings was used. To define clinically relevant synovitis, the same score was applied to 38 healthy controls and the 90st percentile was used as cut-off for 'relevant' synovitis. RESULTS: Three hundred and seven patients had at least one US examination and concomitant clinical information on disease activity. More than a third of patients in both DAS28 and ACR/EULAR remission showed significant gray scale synovitis (P=0.01 and 0.0002, respectively) and PwD activity (P=0.005 and 0.0005, respectively) when compared to controls. The capacity of US to discriminate between the two clinical remission groups and patients with active disease was only moderate. CONCLUSION: This observational study confirms that many patients considered to be in clinical remission according the DAS and the ACR/EULAR definitions still have residual synovitis on US. The prognostic significance of US synovitis and the exact place of US in patients reaching clinical remission need to be further evaluated.

Canine distemper virus : persistence and pathology in the central nervous system

Résumé : Le virus de la maladie de Carré (en anglais: canine distemper virus, CDV) qui est pathogène pour les chiens et autres carnivores, est très semblable au virus de la rougeole humaine (en anglais MV). Ces deux virus font partie du genre des Morbillivirus qui appartient à la famille des Paramyxoviridae. Ils induisent des complications dans le système nerveux central (SNC). Au stade précoce et aigu de l'infection du SNC, le CDV induit une démyélinisation (1). Ce stade évolue dans certains cas vers une infection chronique avec progression de la démyélinisation. Pendant le stade précoce, qui suit en général de trois semaines les premiers symptômes, le processus de démyélinisation est associé à la réplication du virus et n'est pas considéré comme inflammatoire (1). Par contre, au stade chronique, la progression des plaques de démyélinisation semble être plutôt liée à des processus immunogènes caractéristiques (2), retrouvés également dans la sclérose en plaques (SEP) chez les humains. Pour cette raison, le CDV est considéré comme un modèle pour la SEP humaine et aussi pour l'étude des maladies et complications induites par les Morbillivirus en général (3). Dans notre laboratoire, nous avons utilisé la souche A75/17-CDV, qui est considérée comme le modèle des souches neurovirulentes de CDV. Nous avons cherché en premier lieu à établir un système robuste pour infecter des cultures neuronales avec le CDV. Nous avons choisi les cultures primaires de l'hippocampe du nouveau-né de rat (4), que nous avons ensuite infecté avec une version modifiée du A75/17, appelée rgA75/17-V (5). Dans ces cultures, nous avons prouvé que le CDV infecte des neurones et des astrocytes. Malgré une infection qui se diffuse lentement entre les cellules, cette infection cause une mort massive aussi bien des neurones infectés que non infectés. En parallèle, les astrocytes perdent leur morphologie de type étoilé pour un type polygonal. Finalment, nous avons trouvé une augmentation importante de la concentration en glutamate dans le milieu de culture, qui laisse présumer une sécrétion de glutamate par les cultures infectées (6). Nous avons ensuite étudié le mécanisme des effets cytopathiques induits par le CDV. Nous avons d'abord démontré que les glycoprotéines de surface F et H du CDV s'accumulent massivement dans le réticulum endoplasmique (RE). Cette accumulation déclenche un stress du RE, qui est caractérisé par une forte expression du facteur de transcription proapoptotique CHOP/GADD 153 et de le la calreticuline (CRT). La CRT est une protéine chaperonne localisée dans le RE et impliquée dans l'homéostasie du calcium (Ca2+) et dans le repliement des protéines. En transfectant des cellules de Vero avec des plasmides codant pour plusieurs mutants de la glycoprotéine F de CDV, nous avons démontré une corrélation entre l'accumulation des protéines virales dans le RE et l'augmentation de l'expression de CRT, le stress du RE et la perte de l'homéostasie du Ca2+. Nous avons obtenu des résultats semblables avec des cultures de cellules primaires de cerveau de rat. Ces résultats suggèrent que la CRT joue un rôle crucial dans les phénomènes neurodégénératifs pendant l'infection du SNC, notamment par le relazgage du glutamate via le Ca2+. De manière intéressante, nous démontrons également que l'infection de CDV induit une fragmentation atypique de la CRT. Cette fragmentation induit une re-localisation et une exposition sélective de fragments amino-terminaux de la CRT, connus pour êtres fortement immunogènes à la surface des cellules infectées et non infectées. A partir de ce résultat et des résultats précédents, nous proposons le mécanisme suivant: après l'infection par le CDV, la rétention dans le RE des protéines F et H provoque un stress du RE et une perte de l'homéostasie du Ca2+. Ceci induit la libération du glutamate, qui cause une dégénération rapide du SNC (sur plusieurs jours ou semaines) correspondant à la phase aiguë de la maladie chez le chien. En revanche, les fragments amino-terminaux de la CRT libérés à la surface des cellules infectées peuvent avoir un rôle important dans l'établissement d'une démyélinisation d'origine immunogène, typique de la phase chronique de l'infection de CDV. Summary : The dog pathogen canine distemper virus (CDV), closely related to the human pathogen measles virus (MV), belongs to the Morbillivirus genus of the Paramyxoviridae family. Both CDV and NIV induce complications in the central nervous system (CNS). In the acute early stage of the infection in CNS, the CDV infection induces demyelination. This stage is sometimes followed by a late persistent stage of infection with a progression of the demyelinating lesions (1). The acute early stage occurs around three weeks after the infection and demyelinating processes are associated with active virus replication and are not associated to inflammation (1). In contrast during late persistent stage, the demyelination plaque progression seems to be mainly due to an immunopathological process (2), which characteristics are shared in many aspects with the human disease multiple sclerosis (MS). For these reasons, CDV is considered as a model for human multiple sclerosis, as well as for the study of Morbillivirus-mediated pathogenesis (3). In our laboratory, we used the A75/17-CDV strain that is considered to be the prototype of neurovirulent CDV strain. We first sought to establish a well characterized and robust model for CDV infection of a neuronal culture. We chose primary cultures from newborn rat hippocampes (4) that we infected with a modified version of A75/17, called rgA75/17-V (5). In these cultures, we showed that CDV infects both neurons and astrocytes. While the infection spreads only slowly to neighbouring cells, it causes a massive death of neurons, which includes also non-infected neurons. In parallel, astrocytes undergo morphological changes from the stellate type to the polygonal type. The pharmacological blocking of the glutamate receptors revealed an implication of glutamatergic signalling in the virus-mediated cytopathic effect. Finally, we found a drastic increase concentration of glutamate in the culture medium, suggesting that glutamate was released from the cultured cells (6). We further studied the mechanism of the CDV-induced cytopathic effects. We first demonstrated that the CDV surface glycoprotein F and H markedly accumulate in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER). This accumulation triggers an ER stress, which is characterized by increased expression of the proapoptotic transcription factor CHOP/GADD 153 and calreticulin (CRT). CRT is an ER resident chaperon involved in the Ca2+ homeostasis and in the response to misfolded proteins. Transfections of Vero cells with plasmids encoding various CDV glycoprotein mutants reveal a correlation between accumulation of viral proteins in the ER, CRT overexpression, ER stress and alteration of ER Ca2+ homeostasis. Importantly, similar results are also obtained in primary cell cultures from rat brain. These results suggest that CRT plays a crucial role in CNS infection, particularly due to CRT involvement in Ca2+ mediated glutamate releases, and subsequent neurodegenerative disorders. Very intriguingly, we also demonstrated that CDV infection induces an atypical CRT fragmentation, with relocalisation and selective exposure of the highly immunogenic CRT N-terminal fragments at the surface of infected and neighbouring non-infected cells. Altogether our results combined with previous findings suggest the following scenario. After CDV infection, F and H retention alter Ca2+ homeostasis, and induce glutamate release, which in turn causes rapid CNS degeneration (within days or a week) corresponding to the acute phase of the disease in dogs. In contrast, the CRT N-terminal fragments released at the surface of infected cells may rather have an important role in the establishment of the autoimmune demyelination in the late stage of CDV infection.

Persistence and cell culturability of biocontrol strain Pseudomonas fluorescens CHA0 under plough pan conditions in soil and influence of the anaerobic regulator gene anr.

Certain fluorescent pseudomonads can protect plants from soil-borne pathogens, and it is important to understand how these biocontrol agents survive in soil. The persistence of the biocontrol strain Pseudomonas fluorescens CHA0-Rif under plough pan conditions was assessed in non-sterile soil microcosms by counting total cells (immunofluorescence microscopy), intact cells (BacLight membrane permeability test), viable cells (Kogure's substrate-responsiveness test) and culturable cells (colony counts on selective plates) of the inoculant. Viable but non-culturable cells of CHA0-Rif (106 cells g-1 soil) were found in flooded microcosms amended with fermentable organic matter, in which the soil redox potential was low (plough pan conditions), in agreement with previous observations of plough pan samples from a field inoculated with CHA0-Rif. However, viable but non-culturable cells were not found in unamended flooded, amended unflooded or unamended unflooded (i.e. control) microcosms, suggesting that such cells resulted from exposure of CHA0-Rif to a combination of low redox potential and oxygen limitation in soil. CHA0-Rif is strictly aerobic. Its anaerobic regulator ANR is activated by low oxygen concentrations and it controls production of the biocontrol metabolite hydrogen cyanide under microaerophilic conditions. Under plough pan conditions, an anr-deficient mutant of CHA0-Rif and its complemented derivative displayed the same persistence pattern as CHA0-Rif, indicating that anr was not implicated in the formation of viable but non-culturable cells of this strain at the plough pan.

CD93 is required for maintenance of antibody secretion and persistence of plasma cells in the bone marrow niche.

Plasma cells represent the end stage of B-cell development and play a key role in providing an efficient antibody response, but they are also involved in numerous pathologies. Here we show that CD93, a receptor expressed during early B-cell development, is reinduced during plasma-cell differentiation. High CD93/CD138 expression was restricted to antibody-secreting cells both in T-dependent and T-independent responses as naive, memory, and germinal-center B cells remained CD93-negative. CD93 was expressed on (pre)plasmablasts/plasma cells, including long-lived plasma cells that showed decreased cell cycle activity, high levels of isotype-switched Ig secretion, and modification of the transcriptional network. T-independent and T-dependent stimuli led to re-expression of CD93 via 2 pathways, either before or after CD138 or Blimp-1 expression. Strikingly, while humoral immune responses initially proceeded normally, CD93-deficient mice were unable to maintain antibody secretion and bone-marrow plasma-cell numbers, demonstrating that CD93 is important for the maintenance of plasma cells in bone marrow niches.

Valence lasts longer than arousal : persistence of induced moods as assessed by psychophysiological measures

How long induced moods last is a critical question for mood research but has been only poorly addressed. In particular, physiological parameters have been rarely included to assess the effectiveness of mood induction procedures. Adopting a dimensional model of mood, we investigated the persistence of four different moods (positive higharousal, positive low-arousal, negative high-arousal, negative lowarousal) induced by four film clips ("sport", "nature", "torture", "slum") during a 9-minute computer task. We measured subjective mood state (valence and arousal), respiration, skin conductance level (SCL), heart rate, and corrugator activity in 76 subjects. Viewing of the selected film clips induced the expected effects both subjectively and physiologically. Corrugator activity was higher at the end of the negative clips than the positive clips, and ventilation and SCL were higher for the arousing clips than for the less arousing clips. People who watched the negative clips still reported more negative valence after the computer task and also showed more facial frowning (cf. figure) and lower SCL during the task than people who watched the positive clips. No arousal effects persisted throughout the task. The results suggest that induced changes in the valence dimension of moods are maintained throughout an intervening task and are physiologically best reflected by corrugator activity and SCL, whereas induced changes in the arousal dimension dissipate quickly. The findings of this study enrich, first, our knowledge concerning the relationships between subjective feelings and their physiological substrate. Second, they inform us about the effectiveness of film clips as a mood induction instrument. Third and most important, they suggest that induced changes in valence last longer than induced changes in arousal. High-arousal moods can last for an extended period of time in daily life, but they seem to be short-lived when induced in the lab. An important methodological consequence is that investigating the effect of the arousal dimension of a person's mood induced in the lab may be only possible when the subsequent task is relatively short. Finally, the findings show which physiological measures may be useful in tracking mood states.

In Vivo Persistence of Codominant Human CD8+ T Cell Clonotypes Is Not Limited by Replicative Senescence or Functional Alteration.

T cell responses to viral epitopes are often composed of a small number of codominant clonotypes. In this study, we show that tumor Ag-specific T cells can behave similarly. In a melanoma patient with a long lasting HLA-A2/NY-ESO-1-specific T cell response, reaching 10% of circulating CD8 T cells, we identified nine codominant clonotypes characterized by individual TCRs. These clonotypes made up almost the entire pool of highly differentiated effector cells, but only a fraction of the small pool of less differentiated "memory" cells, suggesting that the latter serve to maintain effector cells. The different clonotypes displayed full effector function and expressed TCRs with similar functional avidity. Nevertheless, some clonotypes increased, whereas others declined in numbers over the observation period of 6 years. One clonotype disappeared from circulating blood, but without preceding critical telomere shortening. In turn, clonotypes with increasing frequency had accelerated telomere shortening, correlating with strong in vivo proliferation. Interestingly, the final prevalence of the different T cell clonotypes in circulation was anticipated in a metastatic lymph node withdrawn 2 years earlier, suggesting in vivo clonotype selection driven by metastases. Together, these data provide novel insight in long term in vivo persistence of T cell clonotypes associated with continued cell turnover but not replicative senescence or functional alteration.

Persistence of a biocontrol Pseudomonas inoculant as high populations of culturable and non-culturable cells in 200-cm-deep soil profiles

Little is known about the ecology of soil inoculants used for pathogen biocontrol, biofertilization and bioremediation under field conditions. We investigated the persistence and the physiological states of soil-inoculated Pseudomonas protegens (previously Pseudomonas fluorescens) CHA0 (108 CFU g−1 surface soil) in different soil microbial habitats in a planted ley (Medicago sativa L.) and an uncovered field plot. At 72 days, colony counts of the inoculant were low in surface soil (uncovered plot) and earthworm guts (ley plot), whereas soil above the plow pan (uncovered plot), and the rhizosphere and worm burrows present until 1.2 m depth (ley plot) were survival hot spots (105-106 CFU g−1 soil). Interestingly, strain CHA0 was also detected in the subsoil of both plots, at 102-105 CFU g−1 soil between 1.8 and 2 m depth. However, non-cultured CHA0 cells were also evidenced based on immunofluorescence microscopy. Kogure's direct viable counts of nutrient-responsive cells showed that many more CHA0 cells were in a viable but non-culturable (VBNC) or a non-responsive (dormant) state than in a culturable state, and the proportion of cells in those non-cultured states depended on soil microbial habitat. At the most, cells in a VBNC state amounted to 34% (above the plow pan) and those in a dormant state to 89% (in bulk soil between 0.6 and 2 m) of all CHA0 cells. The results indicate that field-released Pseudomonas inoculants may persist at high cell numbers, even in deeper soil layers, and display a combination of different physiological states whose prevalence fluctuates according to soil microbial habitats.

Long-term persistence of HIV-1 vaccine-induced CD4+CD45RA-CD62L-CCR7- memory T-helper cells.

OBJECTIVE: To determine in chimpanzees if candidate HIV-1 subunit protein vaccines were capable of eliciting long-lasting T-cell memory responses in the absence of viral infection, and to determine the specific characteristics of these responses. DESIGN: A longitudinal study of cell-mediated immune responses induced in three chimpanzees following immunization with subunit envelope glycoproteins of either HIV-1 or herpes simplex virus (HSV)-2. Following these pre-clinical observations, four human volunteers who had been immunized 7 years previously with the same HIV-1 vaccine candidate donated blood for assessment of immune responses. METHODS: Responses were monitored by protein and peptide based ELISpot assays, lymphocyte proliferation, and intracellular cytokine staining. Humoral responses were assessed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and virus neutralization assays. RESULTS: Although antigen (Ag)-specific CD4 T-cell responses persisted for at least 5 years in chimpanzees, CD8 T-cell responses were discordant and declined within 2 years. Detailed cellular analyses revealed that strong Th1 in addition to Th2 type responses were induced by AS2/gp120 and persisted, whereas CD8 T-cell memory declined in peripheral blood. The specificity of both Th and cytotoxic T-lymphocyte responses revealed that the majority of responses were directed to conserved epitopes. The remarkable persistence of Ag-specific CD4 T-cell memory was characterized as a population of the CD45RA-CD62L-CCR7- "effector phenotype" producing the cytokines IFNgamma, IL-2 and IL-4 upon epitope-specific recognition. Importantly, results in chimpanzees were confirmed in peripheral blood of one of four human volunteers studied more than 7 years after immunization. CONCLUSION: These studies demonstrate that epitope-specific Th1 and Th2 cytokine-dependent Th responses can be induced and maintained for longer than 5 years by immunization with subunit proteins of HIV-1.

How patch configuration affects the impact of disturbances on metapopulation persistence.

Disturbances affect metapopulations directly through reductions in population size and indirectly through habitat modification. We consider how metapopulation persistence is affected by different disturbance regimes and the way in which disturbances spread, when metapopulations are compact or elongated, using a stochastic spatially explicit model which includes metapopulation and habitat dynamics. We discover that the risk of population extinction is larger for spatially aggregated disturbances than for spatially random disturbances. By changing the spatial configuration of the patches in the system--leading to different proportions of edge and interior patches--we demonstrate that the probability of metapopulation extinction is smaller when the metapopulation is more compact. Both of these results become more pronounced when colonization connectivity decreases. Our results have important management implication as edge patches, which are invariably considered to be less important, may play an important role as disturbance refugia.