985 resultados para forecast combination


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The use of electroacoustic analogies suggests that a source of acoustical energy (such as an engine, compressor, blower, turbine, loudspeaker, etc.) can be characterized by an acoustic source pressure ps and internal source impedance Zs, analogous to the open-circuit voltage and internal impedance of an electrical source. The present paper shows analytically that the source characteristics evaluated by means of the indirect methods are independent of the loads selected; that is, the evaluated values of ps and Zs are unique, and that the results of the different methods (including the direct method) are identical. In addition, general relations have been derived here for the transfer of source characteristics from one station to another station across one or more acoustical elements, and also for combining several sources into a single equivalent source. Finally, all the conclusions are extended to the case of a uniformly moving medium, incorporating the convective as well as dissipative effects of the mean flow.

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Introduction: Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has decreased morbidity and mortality of individuals infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). Its use, however, is associated with adverse effects which increase the patients risk of conditions such as diabetes and coronary heart disease. Perhaps the most stigmatizing side effect is lipodystrophy, i.e., the loss of subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) in the face, limbs and trunk while fat accumulates intra-abdominally and dorsocervically. The pathogenesis of cART-associated lipodystrophy is obscure. Nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) have been implicated to cause lipoatrophy via mitochondrial toxicity. There is no known effective treatment for cART-associated lipodystrophy during unchanged antiretroviral regimen in humans, but in vitro data have shown uridine to abrogate NRTI-induced toxicity in adipocytes. Aims: To investigate whether i) cART or lipodystrophy associated with its use affect arterial stiffness; ii) lipoatrophic SAT is inflamed compared to non-lipoatrophic SAT; iii) abdominal SAT from patients with compared to those without cART-associated lipoatrophy differs with respect to mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) content, adipose tissue inflammation and gene expression, and if NRTIs stavudine and zidovudine are associated with different degree of changes; iv) lipoatrophic abdominal SAT differs from preserved dorsocervical SAT with respect to mtDNA content, adipose tissue inflammation and gene expression in patients with cART-associated lipodystrophy and v) whether uridine can revert lipoatrophy and the associated metabolic disturbances in patients on stavudine or zidovudine based cART. Subjects and methods: 64 cART-treated patients with (n=45) and without lipodystrophy/-atrophy (n=19) were compared cross-sectionally. A marker of arterial stiffness, heart rate corrected augmentation index (AgIHR), was measured by pulse wave analysis. Body composition was measured by magnetic resonance imaging and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, and liver fat content by proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Gene expression and mtDNA content in SAT were assessed by real-time polymerase chain reaction and microarray. Adipose tissue composition and inflammation were assessed by histology and immunohistochemistry. Dorsocervical and abdominal SAT were studied. The efficacy and safety of uridine for the treatment of cART-associated lipoatrophy were evaluated in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled 3-month trial in 20 lipoatrophic cART-treated patients. Results: Duration of antiretroviral treatment and cumulative exposure to NRTIs and protease inhibitors, but not the presence of cART-associated lipodystrophy, predicted AgIHR independent of age and blood pressure. Gene expression of inflammatory markers was increased in SAT of lipodystrophic as compared to non-lipodystrophic patients. Expression of genes involved in adipogenesis, triglyceride synthesis and glucose disposal was lower and of those involved in mitochondrial biogenesis, apoptosis and oxidative stress higher in SAT of patients with than without cART-associated lipoatrophy. Most changes were more pronounced in stavudine-treated than in zidovudine-treated individuals. Lipoatrophic SAT had lower mtDNA than SAT of non-lipoatrophic patients. Expression of inflammatory genes was lower in dorsocervical than in abdominal SAT. Neither depot had characteristics of brown adipose tissue. Despite being spared from lipoatrophy, dorsocervical SAT of lipodystrophic patients had lower mtDNA than the phenotypically similar corresponding depot of non-lipodystrophic patients. The greatest difference in gene expression between dorsocervical and abdominal SAT, irrespective of lipodystrophy status, was in expression of homeobox genes that regulate transcription and regionalization of organs during embryonal development. Uridine increased limb fat and its proportion of total fat, but had no effect on liver fat content and markers of insulin resistance. Conclusions: Long-term cART is associated with increased arterial stiffness and, thus, with higher cardiovascular risk. Lipoatrophic abdominal SAT is characterized by inflammation, apoptosis and mtDNA depletion. As mtDNA is depleted even in non-lipoatrophic dorsocervical SAT, lipoatrophy is unlikely to be caused directly by mtDNA depletion. Preserved dorsocervical SAT of patients with cART-associated lipodystrophy is less inflamed than their lipoatrophic abdominal SAT, and does not resemble brown adipose tissue. The greatest difference in gene expression between dorsocervical and abdominal SAT is in expression of transcriptional regulators, homeobox genes, which might explain the differential susceptibility of these adipose tissue depots to cART-induced toxicity. Uridine is able to increase peripheral SAT in lipoatrophic patients during unchanged cART.

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The current standard of care for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection - combination therapy with pegylated interferon and ribavirin - elicits sustained responses in only similar to 50% of the patients treated. No alternatives exist for patients who do not respond to combination therapy. Addition of ribavirin substantially improves response rates to interferon and lowers relapse rates following the cessation of therapy, suggesting that increasing ribavirin exposure may further improve treatment response. A key limitation, however, is the toxic side-effect of ribavirin, hemolytic anemia, which often necessitates a reduction of ribavirin dosage and compromises treatment response. Maximizing treatment response thus requires striking a balance between the antiviral and hemolytic activities of ribavirin. Current models of viral kinetics describe the enhancement of treatment response due to ribavirin. Ribavirin-induced anemia, however, remains poorly understood and precludes rational optimization of combination therapy. Here, we develop a new mathematical model of the population dynamics of erythrocytes that quantitatively describes ribavirin-induced anemia in HCV patients. Based on the assumption that ribavirin accumulation decreases erythrocyte lifespan in a dose-dependent manner, model predictions capture several independent experimental observations of the accumulation of ribavirin in erythrocytes and the resulting decline of hemoglobin in HCV patients undergoing combination therapy, estimate the reduced erythrocyte lifespan during therapy, and describe inter-patient variations in the severity of ribavirin-induced anemia. Further, model predictions estimate the threshold ribavirin exposure beyond which anemia becomes intolerable and suggest guidelines for the usage of growth hormones, such as erythropoietin, that stimulate erythrocyte production and avert the reduction of ribavirin dosage, thereby improving treatment response. Our model thus facilitates, in conjunction with models of viral kinetics, the rational identification of treatment protocols that maximize treatment response while curtailing side effects.

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A regiospecific reduction of quinolines (and 1,10-phenanthroline) into the corresponding 1,2,3,4-tetrahydro derivatives using a combination of sodium cyanoborohydride and boron trifluoride etherate in refluxing methanol is described. Under the same conditions indole and acridine reduced to the corresponding dihydroderivatives, whereas acyl group transfer from oxygen to nitrogen atom is also noticed in the case of 8-acyloxyquinolines.

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The gain and loss integrals in the Boltzmann equation for a rigid sphere gas are evaluated in closed form for a distribution which can be expressed as a linear combination of Maxwellians. Application to the Mott-Smith bimodal distribution shows that the gain is also bimodal, but the two modes in the gain are less pronounced than in the distribution. Implications of these results for simple collision models in non-equilibrium flow are discussed.

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The use of electroacoustic analogies suggests that a source of acoustical energy (such as an engine, compressor, blower, turbine, loudspeaker, etc.) can be characterized by an acoustic source pressure ps and internal source impedance Zs, analogous to the open-circuit voltage and internal impedance of an electrical source. The present paper shows analytically that the source characteristics evaluated by means of the indirect methods are independent of the loads selected; that is, the evaluated values of ps and Zs are unique, and that the results of the different methods (including the direct method) are identical. In addition, general relations have been derived here for the transfer of source characteristics from one station to another station across one or more acoustical elements, and also for combining several sources into a single equivalent source. Finally, all the conclusions are extended to the case of a uniformly moving medium, incorporating the convective as well as dissipative effects of the mean flow.

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Earthquakes cause massive road damage which in turn causes adverse effects on the society. Previous studies have quantified the damage caused to residential and commercial buildings; however, not many studies have been conducted to quantify road damage caused by earthquakes. In this study, an attempt has been made to propose a new scale to classify and quantify the road damage due to earthquakes based on the data collected from major earthquakes in the past. The proposed classification for road damage due to earthquake is called as road damage scale (RDS). Earthquake details such as magnitude, distance of road damage from the epicenter, focal depth, and photographs of damaged roads have been collected from various sources with reported modified Mercalli intensity (MMI). The widely used MMI scale is found to be inadequate to clearly define the road damage. The proposed RDS is applied to various reported road damage and reclassified as per RDS. The correlation between RDS and earthquake parameters of magnitude, epicenter distance, hypocenter distance, and combination of magnitude with epicenter and hypocenter distance has been studied using available data. It is observed that the proposed RDS correlates well with the available earthquake data when compared with the MMI scale. Among several correlations, correlation between RDS and combination of magnitude and epicenter distance is appropriate. Summary of these correlations, their limitations, and the applicability of the proposed scale to forecast road damages and to carry out vulnerability analysis in urban areas is presented in the paper.

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This paper proposes a method of short term load forecasting with limited data, applicable even at 11 kV substation levels where total power demand is relatively low and somewhat random and weather data are usually not available as in most developing countries. Kalman filtering technique has been modified and used to forecast daily and hourly load. Planning generation and interstate energy exchange schedule at load dispatch centre and decentralized Demand Side Management at substation level are intended to be carried out with the help of this short term load forecasting technique especially to achieve peak power control without enforcing load-shedding.

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Earlier studies in this laboratory have shown the potential of artemisinin-curcumin combination therapy in experimental malaria. In a parasite recrudescence model in mice infected with Plasmodium berghei (ANKA), a single dose of alpha, beta-arteether (ART) with three oral doses of curcumin prevented recrudescence, providing almost 95% protection. The parasites were completely cleared in blood with ART-alone (AE) or ART+curcumin (AC) treatments in the short-term, although the clearance was faster in the latter case involving increased ROS generation. But, parasites in liver and spleen were not cleared in AE or AC treatments, perhaps, serving as a reservoir for recrudescence. Parasitemia in blood reached up to 60% in AE-treated mice during the recrudescence phase, leading to death of animals. A transient increase of up to 2-3% parasitemia was observed in AC-treatment, leading to protection and reversal of splenomegaly. A striking increase in spleen mRNA levels for TLR2, IL-10 and IgG-subclass antibodies but a decrease in those for INF gamma and IL-12 was observed in AC-treatment. There was a striking increase in IL-10 and IgG subclass antibody levels but a decrease in INF gamma levels in sera leading to protection against recrudescence. AC-treatment failed to protect against recrudescence in TLR2(-/-) and IL-10(-/-) animals. IL-10 injection to AE-treated wild type mice and AC-treated TLR22/2 mice was able to prolong survival. Blood from the recrudescence phase in AE-treatment, but not from AC-treatment, was able to reinfect and kill naive animals. Sera from the recrudescence phase of AC-treated animals reacted with several parasite proteins compared to that from AE-treated animals. It is proposed that activation of TLR2-mediated innate immune response leading to enhanced IL-10 production and generation of anti-parasite antibodies contribute to protective immunity in AC-treated mice. These results indicate a potential for curcumin-based combination therapy to be tested for prevention of recrudescence in falciparum and relapse in vivax malaria.

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Malaria afflicts 300 million people worldwide, with over a million deaths every year. With no immediate prospect of a vaccine against the disease, drugs are the only choice to treat it. Unfortunately, the parasite has become resistant to most antimalarials, restricting the option to use artemisinins (ARTs) for effective cure. With the use of ARTs as the front-line antimalarials, reports are already available on the possible resistance development to these drugs as well. Therefore, it has become necessary to use ART-based combination therapies to delay emergence of resistance. It is also necessary to discover new pharmacophores to eventually replace ART. Studies in our laboratory have shown that curcumin not only synergizes with ART as an antimalarial to kill the parasite, but is also uniquely able to prime the immune system to protect against parasite recrudescence in the animal model. The results indicate a potential for the use of ART curcumin combination against recrudescence/relapse in falciparum and vivax malaria. In addition, studies have also suggested the use of curcumin as an adjunct therapy against cerebral malaria. In this review we have attempted to highlight these aspects as well as the studies directed to discover new pharmacophores as potential replacements for ART.

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Titanium-carbon (Ti-C) thin films of different compositions were prepared by a combination of pulsed DC (for Ti target) and normal DC (for graphite target) magnetron co-sputtering on oxidized silicon and fused quartz substrates. At 33.7 at.% of C content, pure hcp Ti transforms into fcc-TiC with a preferential orientation of (2 2 0) along with (1 1 1) and (2 0 0). A clear transformation in the preferential orientation from (2 2 0) to (1 1 1) has been observed when the C content was increased to 56 at.%. At 62.5 at.% of C, TiC precipitates in an amorphous carbon matrix whereas further increase in C leads to X-ray amorphous films. The cross-sectional scanning electron microscope images reveal that the films with low carbon content consists of columnar grains, whereas, randomly oriented grains are in an amorphous carbon matrix at higher carbon content. A dramatic variation was observed in the mechanical properties such as hardness, H, from 30 to 1 GPa and in modulus, E, from 255 to 25 GPa with varying carbon content in the films. Resistance to plastic deformation parameter was observed as 0.417 for films containing 62.5 at.% of C. Nanoscratch test reveals that the films are highly scratch resistant with a coefficient of friction ranging from 0.15 to 0.04. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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A two step silicon surface texturing, consisting of potassium hydroxide (KOH) etching followed by tetra-methyl ammonium hydroxide etching is presented. This combined texturing results in 13.8% reflectivity at 600 nm compared to 16.1% reflectivity for KOH etching due to the modification of microstructure of etched pyramids. This combined etching also results in significantly lower flat-band voltage (V-FB) (-0.19V compared to -1.3 V) and interface trap density (D-it) (2.13 x 10(12) cm(-2) eV(-1) compared to 3.2 x 10(12) cm(-2) eV(-1)). (C) 2013 American Institute of Physics. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4776733]

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Time series classification deals with the problem of classification of data that is multivariate in nature. This means that one or more of the attributes is in the form of a sequence. The notion of similarity or distance, used in time series data, is significant and affects the accuracy, time, and space complexity of the classification algorithm. There exist numerous similarity measures for time series data, but each of them has its own disadvantages. Instead of relying upon a single similarity measure, our aim is to find the near optimal solution to the classification problem by combining different similarity measures. In this work, we use genetic algorithms to combine the similarity measures so as to get the best performance. The weightage given to different similarity measures evolves over a number of generations so as to get the best combination. We test our approach on a number of benchmark time series datasets and present promising results.