Studies on ocean surface layer responses to atmospheric forcing in the North Indian Ocean

The present study on upper ocean responses to atmospheric forcing (associated with cyclone passage) in North Indian Ocean revealed significant variability between AS and BoB. The analysis of cyclone frequency during 1947 to 2006 exhibited lesser frequency of cyclones in AS than that of BoB. The analysis also revealed significant reduction in cyclone frequency after the year 1976 with substantial reduction during monsoon season. The long term SST data at selected points in AS and BoB could not reveal any relation with reduction in cyclone frequency. However the SLP at same locations exhibited considerable increase during mid 1970’s, which could have contributed to the observed reduction in cyclone frequency after the year 1976.The response in waves during cyclone passage exhibited significant asymmetry on either side of the track in AS and BoB and the response is observed at 100’s of kilometers away from the track. The significant clockwise rotation in wave direction is observed on the right side of the track starting from near the track to far away locations, which existed for a longer duration. However, the anticlockwise rotation in wave direction is observed over a shorter distance on the left side of the track and dissipated immediately.Inertial oscillation is observed in surface current and in the mixed layer temperature associated with cyclone passage, which revealed the role of relative location(s) on either side of the track. The inertial peak closer to the local inertial period indicates maximum transfer of energy during the cyclone passage in both AS and BoB. The absence of strong inertial oscillation even with clockwise rotation in surface current and wind indicates the dominant role of duration of strong wind in generating inertial oscillation.The oceanic response associated with cyclone passage reveal the variable response(s) which depends on cyclone intensity, the proximity to track and cyclone translation speed. It is observed that resonance with wind generates higher response in surface current, wave and SST on the right side of the track and it lasts for a longer duration. The maximum oceanic response is observed at a few kilometers away on right side of the track. However lesser rightward bias in the location of maximum cooling is observed for cyclones with low cyclone translation speed. The response on the left side of the track is less and is limited over a shorter distance and dissipates immediately. It is observed that the ocean response, in general, increases with intensity of cyclones. However the differential cooling produced by the same intensity cyclones in AS and in BoB indicates the dominant role of low cyclone translation speed in oceanic response.The surface cooling exhibited strikingly differential responses between AS and BoB. The TMI-SST and buoy observations exhibited significant cooling for a longer duration in AS compared to that of BoB. The spatial extent of cooling is also much higher in AS than that of BoB. The wide spread cooling associated with cyclone passage in AS indicates the dominant role of thermal structure in oceanic response in AS than that of BoB.

Classifying dynamical forcing mechanisms using a climatology of extratropical cyclones

A climatology of almost 700 extratropical cyclones is compiled by applying an automated feature tracking algorithm to a database of objectively identified cyclonic features. Cyclones are classified according to the relative contributions to the midlevel vertical motion of the forcing from upper and lower levels averaged over the cyclone intensification period (average U/L ratio) and also by the horizontal separation between their upper-level trough and low-level cyclone (tilt). The frequency distribution of the average U/L ratio of the cyclones contains two significant peaks and a long tail at high U/L ratio. Although discrete categories of cyclones have not been identified, the cyclones comprising the peaks and tail have characteristics that have been shown to be consistent with the type A, B, and C cyclones of the threefold classification scheme. Using the thresholds in average U/L ratio determined from the frequency distribution, type A, B, and C cyclones account for 30\%, 38\%, and 32\% of the total number of cyclones respectively. Cyclones with small average U/L ratio are more likely to be developing cyclones (attain a relative vorticity $\ge 1.2 \times 10^{-4} \mbox{s}^{-1}$) whereas cyclones with large average U/L ratio are more likely to be nondeveloping cyclones (60\% of type A cyclones develop whereas 31\% of type C cyclones develop). Type A cyclogenesis dominates in the development region East of the Rockies and over the gulf stream, type B cyclogenesis dominates in the region off the East coast of the USA, and type C cyclogenesis is more common over the oceans in regions of weaker low-level baroclinicity.

An objective climatology of the dynamical forcing of polar lows in the Nordic seas

A new objective climatology of polar lows in the Nordic (Norwegian and Barents) seas has been derived from a database of diagnostics of objectively identified cyclones spanning the period January 2000 to April 2004. There are two distinct parts to this study: the development of the objective climatology and a characterization of the dynamical forcing of the polar lows identified. Polar lows are an intense subset of polar mesocyclones. Polar mesocyclones are distinguished from other cyclones in the database as those that occur in cold air outbreaks over the open ocean. The difference between the wet-bulb potential temperature at 700 hPa and the sea surface temperature (SST) is found to be an effective discriminator between the atmospheric conditions associated with polar lows and other cyclones in the Nordic seas. A verification study shows that the objective identification method is reliable in the Nordic seas region. After demonstrating success at identifying polar lows using the above method, the dynamical forcing of the polar lows in the Nordic seas is characterized. Diagnostics of the ratio of mid-level vertical motion attributable to quasi-geostrophic forcing from upper and lower levels (U/L ratio) are used to determine the prevalence of a recently proposed category of extratropical cyclogenesis, type C, for which latent heat release is crucial to development. Thirty-one percent of the objectively identified polar low events (36 from 115) exceeded the U/L ratio of 4.0, previously identified as a threshold for type C cyclones. There is a contrast between polar lows to the north and south of the Nordic seas. In the southern Norwegian Sea, the population of polar low events is dominated by type C cyclones. These possess strong convection and weak low-level baroclinicity. Over the Barents and northern Norwegian seas, the well-known cyclogenesis types A and B dominate. These possess stronger low-level baroclinicity and weaker convection.

Inconsistencies between satellite estimates of longwave cloud forcing and dynamical fields from reanalyses

The greenhouse effect of cloud may be quantified as the difference between outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and its clear-sky component (OLRc). Clear-sky measurements from satellite preferentially sample drier, more stable conditions relative to the monthly-mean state. The resulting observational bias is evident when OLRc is stratified by vertical motion; differences to climate model OLRc of 15 Wm−2 occur over warm regions of strong ascent. Using data from the ECMWF 40-year reanalysis, an estimate of cloud longwave radiative effect is made which is directly comparable with standard climate model diagnostics. The impact of this methodology on the cancellation of cloud longwave and shortwave radiative forcing in the tropics is estimated.

A case study of the radiative forcing of persistent contrails evolving into contrail-induced cirrus

The radiative forcing due to a distinct pattern of persistent contrails that form into contrail-induced cirrus near and over the UK is investigated in detail for a single case study during March 2009. The development of the contrail-induced cirrus is tracked using a number of high-resolution polar orbiting and lower-resolution geostationary satellite instruments and is found to persist for a period of around 18 h, and at its peak, it covers over 50,000 km2. The shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative forcing of the contrail-induced cirrus is estimated using a combination of geostationary satellite instruments, numerical weather prediction models, and surface observation sites. As expected, the net radiative effect is a relatively small residual of the much stronger but opposing SW and LW effects, locally totaling around 10 W m−2 during daylight hours and 30 W m−2 during nighttime. A simple estimate indicates that this single localized event may have generated a global-mean radiative forcing of around 7% of recent estimates of the persistent contrail radiative forcing due to the entire global aircraft fleet on a diurnally averaged basis. A single aircraft operating in conditions favorable for persistent contrail formation appears to exert a contrail-induced radiative forcing some 5000 times greater (in W m−2 km−1) than recent estimates of the average persistent contrail radiative forcing from the entire civil aviation fleet. This study emphasizes the need to establish whether similar events are common or highly unusual for a confident assessment of the total climate effect of aviation to be made.

A case study of the radiative forcing of persistent contrails evolving into contrail-induced cirrus

The radiative forcing due to a distinct pattern of persistent contrails that form into contrail-induced cirrus near and over the UK is investigated in detail for a single case study during March 2009. The development of the contrail-induced cirrus is tracked using a number of high-resolution polar orbiting and lower-resolution geostationary satellite instruments and is found to persist for a period of around 18 h, and at its peak, it covers over 50,000 km2. The shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative forcing of the contrail-induced cirrus is estimated using a combination of geostationary satellite instruments, numerical weather prediction models, and surface observation sites. As expected, the net radiative effect is a relatively small residual of the much stronger but opposing SW and LW effects, locally totaling around 10 W m−2 during daylight hours and 30 W m−2 during nighttime. A simple estimate indicates that this single localized event may have generated a global-mean radiative forcing of around 7% of recent estimates of the persistent contrail radiative forcing due to the entire global aircraft fleet on a diurnally averaged basis. A single aircraft operating in conditions favorable for persistent contrail formation appears to exert a contrail-induced radiative forcing some 5000 times greater (in W m−2 km−1) than recent estimates of the average persistent contrail radiative forcing from the entire civil aviation fleet. This study emphasizes the need to establish whether similar events are common or highly unusual for a confident assessment of the total climate effect of aviation to be made.

Intercomparison of radiative forcing calculations of stratospheric water vapour and contrails

Seven groups have participated in an intercomparison study of calculations of radiative forcing (RF) due to stratospheric water vapour (SWV) and contrails. A combination of detailed radiative transfer schemes and codes for global-scale calculations have been used, as well as a combination of idealized simulations and more realistic global-scale changes in stratospheric water vapour and contrails. Detailed line-by-line codes agree within about 15 % for longwave (LW) and shortwave (SW) RF, except in one case where the difference is 30 %. Since the LW and SW RF due to contrails and SWV changes are of opposite sign, the differences between the models seen in the individual LW and SW components can be either compensated or strengthened in the net RF, and thus in relative terms uncertainties are much larger for the net RF. Some of the models used for global-scale simulations of changes in SWV and contrails differ substantially in RF from the more detailed radiative transfer schemes. For the global-scale calculations we use a method of weighting the results to calculate a best estimate based on their performance compared to the more detailed radiative transfer schemes in the idealized simulations.