The illusion of control, the structures of prizes and the demand for football pools in Spain

Using data for all the fixtures for the seasons from 1972-73 to 2002-03, we estimate a dynamic model of demand for football pools in Spain paying attention to whether their main economic explanatory variable is the effective price of a ticket or the jackpot. Additionally, we evaluate the importance of the composition of the list of games in terms of whether First Division matches are included or not. Results show that the jackpot model is preferred to the effective price model, having important implications in terms of how the structure of the game should be changed in order to increase demand.

Sense and antisense transcripts in the histone H1 (HIS-1) locus of Leishmania major.

Histone H1 in the parasitic protozoan Leishmania is a developmentally regulated protein encoded by two genes, HIS-1.1 and HIS-1.2. These genes are separated by approximately 20 kb of sequence and are located on the same DNA strand of chromosome 27. When Northern blots of parasite RNA were probed with HIS-1 strand-specific riboprobes, we detected sense and antisense transcripts that were polyadenylated and developmentally regulated. When the HIS-1.2 coding region was replaced with the coding region of the neomycin phosphotransferase gene, antisense transcription of this gene was unaffected, indicating that the regulatory elements controlling antisense transcription were located outside of the HIS-1.2 gene, and that transcription in Leishmania can occur from both DNA strands even in the presence of transcription of a selectable marker in the complementary strand. A search for other antisense transcripts within the HIS-1 locus identified an additional transcript (SC-1) within the intervening HIS-1 sequence, downstream of adenine and thymine-rich sequences. These results show that gene expression in Leishmania is not only regulated polycistronically from the sense strand of genomic DNA, but that the complementary strand of DNA also contains sequences that could drive expression of open reading frames from the antisense strand of DNA. These findings suggest that the parasite has evolved in such a way as to maximise the transcription of its genome, a mechanism that might be important for it to maintain virulence.

External morphology of the immature stages of Neotropical heliconians: VIII. Philaethria wernickei (Röber) (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae, Heliconiinae)

The external features of egg, larva, and pupa of Philaethria wernickei (Röber, 1906) are described and illustrated, based upon light and scanning electron microscopy.

External morphology of the adult of Dynamine postverta (Cramer) (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae, Biblidinae) and patterns of morphological similarity among species from eight tribes of Nymphalidae

External morphology of the adult of Dynamine postverta (Cramer) (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae, Biblidinae) and patterns of morphological similarity among species from eight tribes of Nymphalidae. The external structure of the integument of Dynamine postverta postverta (Cramer, 1779) is based on detailed morphological drawings and scanning electron microscopy. The data are compared with other species belonging to eight tribes of Nymphalidae, to assist future studies on the taxonomy and systematics of Neotropical Biblidinae.

External morphology of the immature stages of Neotropical heliconians: IX. Dione glycera (C. Felder & R. Felder) (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae, Heliconiinae)

External morphology of the immature stages of Neotropical heliconians: IX. Dione glycera (C. Felder & R. Felder) (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae, Heliconiinae). The biology of the Andean silverspot butterfly Dione glycera (C. Felder & R. Felder, 1861) is still poorly known. This species is restricted to high elevations in the Andes, where the immature stages are found in close association with species of Passiflora belonging to the section Tacsonia (Juss.) Harms, especially P. tripartida var. mollissima (Kunth), which is grown for subsistence by villagers. Herein we describe and illustrate the external features of the egg, larva and pupa of D. glycera, based on light and scanning electron microscopy.

External morphology of immature stages of Zaretis strigosus (Gmelin) and Siderone galanthis catarina Dottax and Pierre comb. nov., with taxonomic notes on Siderone (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae: Charaxinae)

ABSTRACT The external morphology of immature stages of Zaretis strigosus (Gmelin, [1790]) and Siderone galanthis catarina Dottax and Pierre, 2009 comb. nov. from southern Brazil are described. Additionally, morphology of the adults and sequences of the mitochondrial gene cytochrome oxidase, subunit I, were analyzed in order to evaluate the taxonomy of Siderone galanthis Hübner, [1823]. Immatures were collected on Casearia sylvestris (Salicaceae) in Curitiba, Paraná, and Balneário Barra do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil, and reared at the laboratory. Morphological descriptions and illustrations are provided, based on observations through stereoscopic and optic microscopes attached to camera lucida; results are compared and discussed and immature stages of some other species of Charaxinae. The results indicates that the morphology of the immature stages of the studied species differ greatly from other Anaeini, representing a distinct lineage of leafwings butterflies. Morphology and molecular evidence indicate that S. nemesis mexicana Dottax and Pierre, 2009 and S. nemesis catarina Dottax and Pierre, 2009 are conspecific with S. galanthis (Cramer, 1775); additionally, S. thebais C. Felder and R. Felder 1862, S. nemesis var. confluens Staudinger, 1887, S. nemesis f. leonora Bargmann, 1928 and S. nemesis f. exacta Bargmann, 1929 are synonymized with S. galanthis galanthis (Cramer, 1775).

The Variscan evolution in the External massifs of the Alps and place in their Variscan framework

In the general discussion on the Variscan evolution of central Europe the pre-Mesozoic basement of the Alps is, in many cases, only included with hesitation. Relatively well-preserved from Alpine metamorphism, the Alpine External massifs can serve as an excellent example of evolution of the Variscan basement, including the earliest Gondwana-derived microcontinents with Cadomian relics. Testifying to the evolution at the Gondwana margin, at least since the Cambrian, such pieces took part in the birth of the Rheic Ocean. After the separation of Avalonia, the remaining Gondwana border was continuously transformed through crustal extension with contemporaneous separation of continental blocks composing future Pangea, but the opening of Palaeotethys had only a reduced significance since the Devonian. The Variscan evolution in the External domain is characterised by an early HP-evolution with subsequent granulitic decompression melts. During Visean crustal shortening, the areas of future formation of migmatites and intrusion of monzodioritic magmas in a general strike-slip regime, were probably in a lower plate situation, whereas the so called monometamorphic areas may have been in an upper plate position of the nappe pile. During the Latest Carboniferous, the emplacement of the youngest granites was associated with the strike-slip faulting and crustal extension at lower crustal levels, whereas, at the surface, detrital sediments accumulated in intramontaneous transtensional basins on a strongly eroded surface. To cite this article: J.R von Raumer et al., C. R. Geoscience 341 (2009). (C) 2008 Academie des sciences. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

The Vi element. A transposon-like repeated DNA sequence interspersed in the vitellogenin locus of Xenopus laevis.

A repeated DNA element in Xenopus laevis is described that is present in about 7500 copies dispersed throughout the genome. It was first identified in the 5' flanking region of one vitellogenin gene and was therefore named the Vi element. Seven copies are present within the vitellogenin gene region, three of them within introns of the genes A1, A2 and B2, and the other four copies in the gene flanking regions. Four of these copies have been sequenced. The Vi element is bounded by a well-conserved 13 base-pair inverted repeat; in addition, it is flanked by a three base-pair direct repeat that appears to be site-specific. The length of these four copies varies from 112 to 469 base-pairs; however, sequence homology between the different copies is very high. Their structural characteristics suggest that length heterogeneity may have arisen by either unequal recombinations, deletions or tandem duplications. Altogether, the characteristics and properties of the Vi element indicate that it might represent a mobile genetic element. One of the four copies sequenced is inserted close (position -535) to the transcription initiation site of the vitellogenin gene B2 in a region otherwise showing considerable homology with the closely related gene B1. Nevertheless, the presence of the Vi element does not seem to influence significantly the estrogen-controlled expression of gene B2. In addition, three alleles of this gene created by length polymorphism in intron 3 and in the Vi element inserted near the transcription initiation site are described.

Ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care: external validation of a clinical prediction rule.

BACKGROUND: The Marburg Heart Score (MHS) aims to assist GPs in safely ruling out coronary heart disease (CHD) in patients presenting with chest pain, and to guide management decisions. AIM: To investigate the diagnostic accuracy of the MHS in an independent sample and to evaluate the generalisability to new patients. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cross-sectional diagnostic study with delayed-type reference standard in general practice in Hesse, Germany. METHOD: Fifty-six German GPs recruited 844 males and females aged ≥ 35 years, presenting between July 2009 and February 2010 with chest pain. Baseline data included the items of the MHS. Data on the subsequent course of chest pain, investigations, hospitalisations, and medication were collected over 6 months and were reviewed by an independent expert panel. CHD was the reference condition. Measures of diagnostic accuracy included the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, and predictive values. RESULTS: The AUC was 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.80 to 0.88). For a cut-off value of 3, the MHS showed a sensitivity of 89.1% (95% CI = 81.1% to 94.0%), a specificity of 63.5% (95% CI = 60.0% to 66.9%), a positive predictive value of 23.3% (95% CI = 19.2% to 28.0%), and a negative predictive value of 97.9% (95% CI = 96.2% to 98.9%). CONCLUSION: Considering the diagnostic accuracy of the MHS, its generalisability, and ease of application, its use in clinical practice is recommended.

Evaluation of Control Structures for Stabilizing Degrading Stream Channels in Western Iowa, Phases II and III, HR-208A, 1985

Since the turn of the century, tributaries to the Missouri River in western Iowa have entrenched their channels to as much as six times their original depth. This channel degradation is accompanied by widening as the channel side slopes become unstable and landslides occur. The deepening and widening of these streams have endangered about 25% of the highway bridges in 13 counties [Lohnes et al. 1980]. Grade stabilization structures have been recommended as the most effective remedial measure for stream degradation [Brice et al., 1978]. In western Iowa, within the last seven years, reinforced concrete grade stabilization structures have cost between $300,000 and $1,200,000. Recognizing that the high cost of these structures may be prohibitive in many situations, the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) sponsored a study at Iowa State University (ISU) to find low-cost alternative structures. This was Phase I of the stream degradation study. Analytical and laboratory work led to the conclusion that alternative construction materials such as gabions and soil-cement might result in more economical structures [Lohnes et al. 1980]. The ISU study also recommended that six experimental structures be built and their performance evaluated. Phase II involved the design of the demonstration structures, and Phase III included monitoring and evaluating their performance.

Transitoriness in cancer patients: a cross-sectional survey of lung and gastrointestinal cancer patients.

Despite earlier diagnosis and advancements in treatment, cancer remains a leading cause of death in the world (13% of all deaths according to the World Health Organization) among men and women. Cancer accounts for approximately 20% of the deaths in the USA every year. Here, we report the findings from a cross-sectional survey of psychosocial factors in lung and gastrointestinal cancer patients. The aim of the study was to explore the associations among transitoriness, uncertainty, and locus of control (LOC) with quality of life. Transitoriness is defined as a person's confrontation with life's finitude due to a cancer diagnosis. A total of 126 patients with lung or gastrointestinal cancer completed eight self-reporting questionnaires addressing demographics, spiritual perspective, symptom burden, transitoriness, uncertainty, LOC, and quality of life. Transitoriness, uncertainty, and LOC were significantly associated with one another (r = 0.3267, p = 0.0002/r = 0.1994, p = 0.0252, respectively). LOC/belief in chance has a significant inverse relationship with patients' quality of life (r = -0.2505, p = 0.0047). Transitoriness, uncertainty, and LOC were found to have a significant inverse relationship with patients' quality of life (transitoriness state: r = -0.5363, p = 0.0000/trait: r = -0.4629, p = 0.0000/uncertainty: r = -0.4929, p = 0.0000/internal LOC: r = 0.1759, p = 0.0489/chance LOC: r = -0.2505, p = 0.0047). Transitoriness, uncertainty, and LOC are important concepts as they adversely influence patients' quality of life. Incorporating this finding into the care of cancer patients may provide them with the support they need to cope with treatment and maintenance of a positive quality of life.

External validation of the ASTRAL score to predict 3- and 12-month functional outcome in the China National Stroke Registry.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The ASTRAL score was recently introduced as a prognostic tool for acute ischemic stroke. It predicts 3-month outcome reliably in both the derivation and the validation European cohorts. We aimed to validate the ASTRAL score in a Chinese stroke population and moreover to explore its prognostic value to predict 12-month outcome. METHODS: We applied the ASTRAL score to acute ischemic stroke patients admitted to 132 study sites of the China National Stroke Registry. Unfavorable outcome was assessed as a modified Rankin Scale score >2 at 3 and 12 months. Areas under the curve were calculated to quantify the prognostic value. Calibration was assessed by comparing predicted and observed probability of unfavorable outcome using Pearson correlation coefficient. RESULTS: Among 3755 patients, 1473 (39.7%) had 3-month unfavorable outcome. Areas under the curve for 3 and 12 months were 0.82 and 0.81, respectively. There was high correlation between observed and expected probability of unfavorable 3- and 12-month outcome (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.964 and 0.963, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: ASTRAL score is a reliable tool to predict unfavorable outcome at 3 and 12 months after acute ischemic stroke in the Chinese population. It is a useful tool that can be readily applied in clinical practice to risk-stratify acute stroke patients.

External assessment of the Early Mortality Risk Score in patients with adenocarcinoma undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy.

BACKGROUND: Pancreaticoduodenectomies (PD) still have a substantial mortality rate. Recently, different scores have been published to predict the mortality risk pre-operatively after PD. This retrospective study was designed to perform an external assessment of an Early Mortality Risk Score (EMRS). METHODS: From 2000 to 2012, all PD cases performed at our institution were documented. Only patients treated for pancreatic head adenocarcinomas were included. Survival time and EMRS (based on age, tumour size, tumour differentiation and comorbidities) were calculated for every patient. Relative risks (RR) of early death 9 and 12 months after PD were then calculated. RESULTS: Of 270 PD for various aetiologies, 120 PD for adenocarcinomas were included. The median follow-up was 37 months, and the overall median survival was 19 months. EMRS of 4 showed a mortality RR of 5.1 at 9 months (P = 0.048) and of 4.5 at 12 months (P = 0.020). CONCLUSIONS: EMRS of 4 is a predictor of tumour-related mortality at 9 and 12 months after PD for adenocarcinoma. The EMRS was externally assessed in our patient cohort and can be implemented in clinical practice. Clinical implications of this score still need to be studied.

External Validation of the Prestroke Independence, Sex, Age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (ISAN) Score for Predicting Stroke-Associated Pneumonia in the Athens Stroke Registry.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The Prestroke Independence, Sex, Age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (ISAN) score was developed recently for predicting stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP), one of the most common complications after stroke. The aim of the present study was to externally validate the ISAN score. METHODS: Data included in the Athens Stroke Registry between June 1992 and December 2011 were used for this analysis. Inclusion criteria were the availability of all ISAN score variables (prestroke independence, sex, age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score). Receiver operating characteristic curves and linear regression analyses were used to determine the discriminatory power of the score and to assess the correlation between actual and predicted pneumonia in the study population. Separate analyses were performed for patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). RESULTS: The analysis included 3204 patients (AIS: 2732, ICH: 472). The ISAN score demonstrated excellent discrimination in patients with AIS (area under the curve [AUC]: .83 [95% confidence interval {CI}: .81-.85]). In the ICH group, the score was less effective (AUC: .69 [95% CI: .63-.74]). Higher-risk groups of ISAN score were associated with an increased relative risk of SAP; risk increase was more prominent in the AIS population. Predicted pneumonia correlated very well with actual pneumonia (AIS group: R(2) = .885; β-coefficient = .941, P < .001; ICH group: R(2) = .880, β-coefficient = .938, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: In our external validation in the Athens Stroke Registry cohort, the ISAN score predicted SAP very accurately in AIS patients and demonstrated good discriminatory power in the ICH group. Further validation and assessment of clinical usefulness would strengthen the score's utility further.