The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro

Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S -> I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.

The four hexamerin genes in the honey bee: structure, molecular evolution and function deduced from expression patterns in queens, workers and drones

Background: Hexamerins are hemocyanin-derived proteins that have lost the ability to bind copper ions and transport oxygen; instead, they became storage proteins. The current study aimed to broaden our knowledge on the hexamerin genes found in the honey bee genome by exploring their structural characteristics, expression profiles, evolution, and functions in the life cycle of workers, drones and queens. Results: The hexamerin genes of the honey bee (hex 70a, hex 70b, hex 70c and hex 110) diverge considerably in structure, so that the overall amino acid identity shared among their deduced protein subunits varies from 30 to 42%. Bioinformatics search for motifs in the respective upstream control regions (UCRs) revealed six overrepresented motifs including a potential binding site for Ultraspiracle (Usp), a target of juvenile hormone (JH). The expression of these genes was induced by topical application of JH on worker larvae. The four genes are highly transcribed by the larval fat body, although with significant differences in transcript levels, but only hex 110 and hex 70a are re-induced in the adult fat body in a caste-and sex-specific fashion, workers showing the highest expression. Transcripts for hex 110, hex 70a and hex70b were detected in developing ovaries and testes, and hex 110 was highly transcribed in the ovaries of egg-laying queens. A phylogenetic analysis revealed that HEX 110 is located at the most basal position among the holometabola hexamerins, and like HEX 70a and HEX 70c, it shares potential orthology relationship with hexamerins from other hymenopteran species. Conclusions: Striking differences were found in the structure and developmental expression of the four hexamerin genes in the honey bee. The presence of a potential binding site for Usp in the respective 5' UCRs, and the results of experiments on JH level manipulation in vivo support the hypothesis of regulation by JH. Transcript levels and patterns in the fat body and gonads suggest that, in addition to their primary role in supplying amino acids for metamorphosis, hexamerins serve as storage proteins for gonad development, egg production, and to support foraging activity. A phylogenetic analysis including the four deduced hexamerins and related proteins revealed a complex pattern of evolution, with independent radiation in insect orders.

A molecular phylogeny and the evolution of nest architecture and behavior in Trigona s.s. (Hymenoptera : Apidae : Meliponini)

Stingless bees exhibit extraordinary variation in nest architecture within and among species. To test for phylogenetic association of behavioral traits for species of the Neotropical stingless bee genus Trigona s.s., a phylogenetic hypothesis was generated by combining sequence data of 24 taxa from one mitochondrial (16S rRNA) and four nuclear gene fragments (long-wavelength rhodopsin copy 1 (opsin), elongation factor-1 alpha copy F2, arginine kinase, and 28S rRNA). Fifteen characteristics of the nest architecture were coded and tested for phylogenetic association. Several characters have significant phylogenetic signal, including type of nesting substrate, nest construction material, and hemipterophily, the tending of hemipteroid insects in exchange for sugar excretions. Phylogenetic independent habits encountered in Trigona s.s. include coprophily and necrophagy.

The non-equilibrium nature of culinary evolution

Food is an essential part of civilization, with a scope that ranges from the biological to the economic and cultural levels. Here, we study the statistics of ingredients and recipes taken from Brazilian, British, French and Medieval cookery books. We find universal distributions with scale invariant behaviour. We propose a copy-mutate process to model culinary evolution that fits our empirical data very well. We find a cultural 'founder effect' produced by the non-equilibrium dynamics of the model. Both the invariant and idiosyncratic aspects of culture are accounted for by our model, which may have applications in other kinds of evolutionary processes.

Viral mutation and its influence in the time evolution of the immunizations

In this paper, we study the behavior of immune memory against antigenic mutation. Using a dynamic model proposed by one of the authors in a previous study (A. de Castro [Phys. J. Appl. Phys. 33, 147 (2006) and Simul. Mod. Pract. Theory. 15, 831 (2007)]), we have performed simulations of several inoculations, where in each virtual sample the viral population undergoes mutations. Our results suggest that the sustainability of the immunizations is dependent on viral variability and that the memory lifetimes are not random, what contradicts what was suggested by Tarlinton et al. [Curr. Opin. Immunol. 20, 162 (2008)]. We show that what may cause an apparent random behavior of the immune memory is the antigenic variability.

Continental passive microwave-based rainfall estimation algorithm: Application to the Amazon Basin

This paper presents a new statistical algorithm to estimate rainfall over the Amazon Basin region using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI). The algorithm relies on empirical relationships derived for different raining-type systems between coincident measurements of surface rainfall rate and 85-GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature as observed by the precipitation radar (PR) and TMI on board the TRMM satellite. The scheme includes rain/no-rain area delineation (screening) and system-type classification routines for rain retrieval. The algorithm is validated against independent measurements of the TRMM-PR and S-band dual-polarization Doppler radar (S-Pol) surface rainfall data for two different periods. Moreover, the performance of this rainfall estimation technique is evaluated against well-known methods, namely, the TRMM-2A12 [ the Goddard profiling algorithm (GPROF)], the Goddard scattering algorithm (GSCAT), and the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) algorithms. The proposed algorithm shows a normalized bias of approximately 23% for both PR and S-Pol ground truth datasets and a mean error of 0.244 mm h(-1) ( PR) and -0.157 mm h(-1)(S-Pol). For rain volume estimates using PR as reference, a correlation coefficient of 0.939 and a normalized bias of 0.039 were found. With respect to rainfall distributions and rain area comparisons, the results showed that the formulation proposed is efficient and compatible with the physics and dynamics of the observed systems over the area of interest. The performance of the other algorithms showed that GSCAT presented low normalized bias for rain areas and rain volume [0.346 ( PR) and 0.361 (S-Pol)], and GPROF showed rainfall distribution similar to that of the PR and S-Pol but with a bimodal distribution. Last, the five algorithms were evaluated during the TRMM-Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) 1999 field campaign to verify the precipitation characteristics observed during the easterly and westerly Amazon wind flow regimes. The proposed algorithm presented a cumulative rainfall distribution similar to the observations during the easterly regime, but it underestimated for the westerly period for rainfall rates above 5 mm h(-1). NESDIS(1) overestimated for both wind regimes but presented the best westerly representation. NESDIS(2), GSCAT, and GPROF underestimated in both regimes, but GPROF was closer to the observations during the easterly flow.

Fossil groups in the Millennium Simulation Evolution of the brightest galaxies

Aims. We create a catalogue of simulated fossil groups and study their properties, in particular the merging histories of their first-ranked galaxies. We compare the simulated fossil group properties with those of both simulated non-fossil and observed fossil groups. Methods. Using simulations and a mock galaxy catalogue, we searched for massive (>5 x 10(13) h(-1) M-circle dot) fossil groups in the Millennium Simulation Galaxy Catalogue. In addition, we attempted to identify observed fossil groups in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 6 using identical selection criteria. Results. Our predictions on the basis of the simulation data are: (a) fossil groups comprise about 5.5% of the total population of groups/clusters with masses larger than 5 x 10(13) h(-1) M-circle dot. This fraction is consistent with the fraction of fossil groups identified in the SDSS, after all observational biases have been taken into account; (b) about 88% of the dominant central objects in fossil groups are elliptical galaxies that have a median R-band absolute magnitude of similar to-23.5-5 log h, which is typical of the observed fossil groups known in the literature; (c) first-ranked galaxies of systems with M > 5 x 10(13) h(-1) M-circle dot, regardless of whether they are either fossil or non-fossil, are mainly formed by gas-poor mergers; (d) although fossil groups, in general, assembled most of their virial masses at higher redshifts in comparison with non-fossil groups, first-ranked galaxies in fossil groups merged later, i.e. at lower redshifts, compared with their non-fossil-group counterparts. Conclusions. We therefore expect to observe a number of luminous galaxies in the centres of fossil groups that show signs of a recent major merger.

New constraints on the chemical evolution of the solar neighbourhood and Galactic disc(s) Improved astrophysical parameters for the Geneva-Copenhagen Survey

We present a re-analysis of the Geneva-Copenhagen survey, which benefits from the infrared flux method to improve the accuracy of the derived stellar effective temperatures and uses the latter to build a consistent and improved metallicity scale. Metallicities are calibrated on high-resolution spectroscopy and checked against four open clusters and a moving group, showing excellent consistency. The new temperature and metallicity scales provide a better match to theoretical isochrones, which are used for a Bayesian analysis of stellar ages. With respect to previous analyses, our stars are on average 100 K hotter and 0.1 dex more metal rich, which shift the peak of the metallicity distribution function around the solar value. From Stromgren photometry we are able to derive for the first time a proxy for [alpha/Fe] abundances, which enables us to perform a tentative dissection of the chemical thin and thick disc. We find evidence for the latter being composed of an old, mildly but systematically alpha-enhanced population that extends to super solar metallicities, in agreement with spectroscopic studies. Our revision offers the largest existing kinematically unbiased sample of the solar neighbourhood that contains full information on kinematics, metallicities, and ages and thus provides better constraints on the physical processes relevant in the build-up of the Milky Way disc, enabling a better understanding of the Sun in a Galactic context.

Fossil groups in the Millennium simulation Their environment and its evolution

Context. Fossil systems are defined to be X- ray bright galaxy groups ( or clusters) with a two- magnitude difference between their two brightest galaxies within half the projected virial radius, and represent an interesting extreme of the population of galaxy agglomerations. However, the physical conditions and processes leading to their formation are still poorly constrained. Aims. We compare the outskirts of fossil systems with that of normal groups to understand whether environmental conditions play a significant role in their formation. We study the groups of galaxies in both, numerical simulations and observations. Methods. We use a variety of statistical tools including the spatial cross- correlation function and the local density parameter Delta(5) to probe differences in the density and structure of the environments of "" normal"" and "" fossil"" systems in the Millennium simulation. Results. We find that the number density of galaxies surrounding fossil systems evolves from greater than that observed around normal systems at z = 0.69, to lower than the normal systems by z = 0. Both fossil and normal systems exhibit an increment in their otherwise radially declining local density measure (Delta(5)) at distances of order 2.5 r(vir) from the system centre. We show that this increment is more noticeable for fossil systems than normal systems and demonstrate that this difference is linked to the earlier formation epoch of fossil groups. Despite the importance of the assembly time, we show that the environment is different for fossil and non- fossil systems with similar masses and formation times along their evolution. We also confirm that the physical characteristics identified in the Millennium simulation can also be detected in SDSS observations. Conclusions. Our results confirm the commonly held belief that fossil systems assembled earlier than normal systems but also show that the surroundings of fossil groups could be responsible for the formation of their large magnitude gap.

Chemical evolution of the Galactic bulge as traced by microlensed dwarf and subgiant stars IV. Two bulge populations

Based on high-resolution (R approximate to 42 000 to 48 000) and high signal-to-noise (S/N approximate to 50 to 150) spectra obtained with UVES/VLT, we present detailed elemental abundances (O, Na, Mg, Al, Si, Ca, Ti, Cr, Fe, Ni, Zn, Y, and Ba) and stellar ages for 12 new microlensed dwarf and subgiant stars in the Galactic bulge. Including previous microlensing events, the sample of homogeneously analysed bulge dwarfs has now grown to 26. The analysis is based on equivalent width measurements and standard 1-D LTE MARCS model stellar atmospheres. We also present NLTE Li abundances based on line synthesis of the (7)Li line at 670.8 nm. The results from the 26 microlensed dwarf and subgiant stars show that the bulge metallicity distribution (MDF) is double-peaked; one peak at [Fe/H] approximate to -0.6 and one at [Fe/H] approximate to +0.3, and with a dearth of stars around solar metallicity. This is in contrast to the MDF derived from red giants in Baade's window, which peaks at this exact value. A simple significance test shows that it is extremely unlikely to have such a gap in the microlensed dwarf star MDF if the dwarf stars are drawn from the giant star MDF. To resolve this issue we discuss several possibilities, but we can not settle on a conclusive solution for the observed differences. We further find that the metal-poor bulge dwarf stars are predominantly old with ages greater than 10 Gyr, while the metal-rich bulge dwarf stars show a wide range of ages. The metal-poor bulge sample is very similar to the Galactic thick disk in terms of average metallicity, elemental abundance trends, and stellar ages. Speculatively, the metal-rich bulge population might be the manifestation of the inner thin disk. If so, the two bulge populations could support the recent findings, based on kinematics, that there are no signatures of a classical bulge and that the Milky Way is a pure-disk galaxy. Also, recent claims of a flat IMF in the bulge based on the MDF of giant stars may have to be revised based on the MDF and abundance trends probed by our microlensed dwarf stars.

THE SPECTRAL EVOLUTION AND EJECTA OF RECURRENT NOVA U Sco IN THE 2010 OUTBURST

Synoptic spectroscopic observations of the U Sco 2010 outburst from maximum light to quiescence as well as a contemporaneous X-ray observation are presented and analyzed. The X-ray spectrum 52 days after outburst indicates a hot source ( kT(bb) similar to 70 eV). Narrow-line components from the irradiated companion atmosphere were observed in hydrogen and helium optical recombination lines. The formation of a nebular spectrum is seen for the first time in this class of recurrent novae, allowing a detailed study of the ejecta using photoionization models. Unusual [O III] auroral-to-nebular line ratios were found and possible scenarios of their origin are discussed. The modeling of the emission line spectrum suggests highly heterogeneous ejecta with masses around or above 3 x 10(-6) M(sun).

Chemical evolution of the Galactic bulge as traced by microlensed dwarf and subgiant stars III. Detection of lithium in the metal-poor bulge dwarf MOA-2010-BLG-285S

Context. To study the evolution of Li in the Galaxy it is necessary to observe dwarf or subgiant stars. These are the only long-lived stars whose present-day atmospheric chemical composition reflects their natal Li abundances according to standard models of stellar evolution. Although Li has been extensively studied in the Galactic disk and halo, to date there has only been one uncertain detection of Li in an unevolved bulge star. Aims. Our aim with this study is to provide the first clear detection of Li in the Galactic bulge, based on an analysis of a dwarf star that has largely retained its initial Li abundance. Methods. We performed a detailed elemental abundance analysis of the bulge dwarf star MOA-2010-BLG-285S using a high-resolution and high signal-to-noise spectrum obtained with the UVES spectrograph at the VLT when the object was optically magnified during a gravitational microlensing event (visual magnification A similar to 550 during observation). The Li abundance was determined through synthetic line profile fitting of the (7)Li resonance doublet line at 670.8 nm. The results have been corrected for departures from LTE. Results. MOA-2010-BLG-285S is, at [Fe/H] = -1.23, the most metal-poor dwarf star detected so far in the Galactic bulge. Its old age (12.5 Gyr) and enhanced [alpha/Fe] ratios agree well with stars in the thick disk at similar metallicities. This star represents the first unambiguous detection of Li in a metal-poor dwarf star in the Galactic bulge. We find an NLTE corrected Li abundance of log epsilon(Li) = 2.16, which is consistent with values derived for Galactic disk and halo dwarf stars at similar metallicities and temperatures. Conclusions. Our results show that there are no signs of Li enrichment or production in the Galactic bulge during its earliest phases. Observations of Li in other galaxies (omega Cen) and other components of the Galaxy suggest further that the Spite plateau is universal.

Transiting exoplanets from the CoRoT space mission XI. CoRoT-8b: a hot and dense sub-Saturn around a K1 dwarf

Aims. We report the discovery of CoRoT-8b, a dense small Saturn-class exoplanet that orbits a K1 dwarf in 6.2 days, and we derive its orbital parameters, mass, and radius. Methods. We analyzed two complementary data sets: the photometric transit curve of CoRoT-8b as measured by CoRoT and the radial velocity curve of CoRoT-8 as measured by the HARPS spectrometer**. Results. We find that CoRoT-8b is on a circular orbit with a semi-major axis of 0.063 +/- 0.001 AU. It has a radius of 0.57 +/- 0.02 R(J), a mass of 0.22 +/- 0.03 M(J), and therefore a mean density of 1.6 +/- 0.1 g cm(-3). Conclusions. With 67% of the size of Saturn and 72% of its mass, CoRoT-8b has a density comparable to that of Neptune (1.76 g cm(-3)). We estimate its content in heavy elements to be 47-63 M(circle plus), and the mass of its hydrogen-helium envelope to be 7-23 M(circle plus). At 0.063 AU, the thermal loss of hydrogen of CoRoT-8b should be no more than similar to 0.1% over an assumed integrated lifetime of 3 Ga.

Chemical evolution models for spiral disks: the Milky Way, M31, and M33

Context. The distribution of chemical abundances and their variation with time are important tools for understanding the chemical evolution of galaxies. In particular, the study of chemical evolution models can improve our understanding of the basic assumptions made when modelling our Galaxy and other spirals. Aims. We test a standard chemical evolution model for spiral disks in the Local Universe and study the influence of a threshold gas density and different efficiencies in the star formation rate (SFR) law on radial gradients of abundance, gas, and SFR. The model is then applied to specific galaxies. Methods. We adopt a one-infall chemical evolution model where the Galactic disk forms inside-out by means of infall of gas, and we test different thresholds and efficiencies in the SFR. The model is scaled to the disk properties of three Local Group galaxies (the Milky Way, M31 and M33) by varying its dependence on the star formation efficiency and the timescale for the infall of gas onto the disk. Results. Using this simple model, we are able to reproduce most of the observed constraints available in the literature for the studied galaxies. The radial oxygen abundance gradients and their time evolution are studied in detail. The present day abundance gradients are more sensitive to the threshold than to other parameters, while their temporal evolutions are more dependent on the chosen SFR efficiency. A variable efficiency along the galaxy radius can reproduce the present day gas distribution in the disk of spirals with prominent arms. The steepness in the distribution of stellar surface density differs from massive to lower mass disks, owing to the different star formation histories. Conclusions. The most massive disks seem to have evolved faster (i.e., with more efficient star formation) than the less massive ones, thus suggesting a downsizing in star formation for spirals. The threshold and the efficiency of star formation play a very important role in the chemical evolution of spiral disks. For instance, an efficiency varying with radius can be used to regulate the star formation. The oxygen abundance gradient can steepen or flatten in time depending on the choice of this parameter.