3D-Var assimilation of insect-derived Doppler radar radial winds in convective cases using a high resolution model

The assimilation of Doppler radar radial winds for high resolution NWP may improve short term forecasts of convective weather. Using insects as the radar target, it is possible to provide wind observations during convective development. This study aims to explore the potential of these new observations, with three case studies. Radial winds from insects detected by 4 operational weather radars were assimilated using 3D-Var into a 1.5 km resolution version of the Met Office Unified Model, using a southern UK domain and no convective parameterization. The effect on the analysis wind was small, with changes in direction and speed up to 45° and 2 m s−1 respectively. The forecast precipitation was perturbed in space and time but not substantially modified. Radial wind observations from insects show the potential to provide small corrections to the location and timing of showers but not to completely relocate convergence lines. Overall, quantitative analysis indicated the observation impact in the three case studies was small and neutral. However, the small sample size and possible ground clutter contamination issues preclude unequivocal impact estimation. The study shows the potential positive impact of insect winds; future operational systems using dual polarization radars which are better able to discriminate between insects and clutter returns should provided a much greater impact on forecasts.

Economic evidence in regulatory disputes: revisiting the court-regulatory agency relationship in the US and the UK

This article examines the issue of the appropriate scope of review of economic evidence enshrined in the discretionary assessments of utility regulators in the US and the UK. It advances a balance of institutional competencies approach to the question of the degree of deference owed to the regulatory agency’s economic assessments. In doing so, it revisits the doctrinal positions advanced in the US and UK for the substantive review of administrative discretion, so as to become attuned to the challenges posed by economic evidence. Drawing on insights from political science and economics, the suggested approach illuminates the institutional disadvantages of the courts that may warrant a high degree of deference. At the same time, however, it remains sensitive to the polycentric elements of regulatory disputes as well as to a number of institutional realties that may attenuate the weight of such comparative institutional disadvantages.

The importance of considering the evidence in the MTP 2014 Amendment debate in India - unsubstantiated arguments should not impede improved access to safe abortion

With the objective to improve access to safe abortion services in India, the Ministry of Health and Welfare, with approval of the Law Ministry, published draft amendments of the MTP Act on October 29, 2014. Instead of the expected support, the amendments created a heated debate within professional medical associations of India. In this commentary, we review the evidence in response to the current discourse with regard to the amendments. It would be unfortunate if unsubstantiated one-sided arguments would impede the intention of improving access to safe abortion care in India.

Exchange rate policies, patterns of specialization and economic development: theory and evidence in developing countries

The objectives of this paper are twofold. First, it intends to provide theoretical elements to analyze the relation between real exchange rates and economic development. Our main hypothesis is very much in line with the Dutch disease literature, and states that competitive currencies contribute to the existence and maintenance of the anufacturing sector in the economy. This, in turn, brings about higher growth rates in the long run, given the existence of increasing returns in the industrial sector, and its importance in generating echnological change and increasing productivity in the overall economy. The second objective of this paper is empirical. It intends to analyze examples of successful exchange rate policies, such as Chile and Indonesia in the eighties, as a benchmark for comparison with countries where currency overvaluation has taken place, such as Brazil. In the latter case, the local currency is being inflated by large capital inflows, due to high domestic interest rates and to a boom in demand and prices of commodities in the international markets. It will be argued that the industrial sector bears most of the burden when the currency appreciates, and that Brazil risks at deindustrialization if there are no changes in the exchange rate regime

Elections and stock market volatility: evidence in OECD countries and developing countries

Este trabalho estuda se existe impacto na volatilidade dos mercados de ações em torno das eleições nacionais nos países da OCDE e nos países em Desenvolvimento. Ao mesmo tempo, pretende, através de variáveis explicativas, descobrir os fatores responsáveis por esse impacto. Foi descoberta evidência que o impacto das eleições na volatilidade dos mercados de ações é maior nos países em Desenvolvimento. Enquanto as eleições antecipadas, a mudança na orientação política e o tamanho da população foram os factores que explicaram o aumento da volatilidade nos países da OCDE, o nível democrático, número de partidos da coligação governamental e a idade dos mercados foram os factores explicativos para os países em Desenvolvimento.

Study of Toxoplasma infection in Brazilian wild mammals: Serological evidence in Dasypus novemcinctus Linnaeus, 1758 and Euphractus sexcinctus Wagler, 1830

Toxoplasmosis is a worldwide distributed zoonosis that affects man and most warm-blooded animals, with a great economic impact in animal and public health. Serum samples from nine 9-banded armadillos, three 6-banded armadillos, three coatimundis, two opossums and one nutria were submitted for anti-Toxoplasma gondii antibody detection by means of a modified direct agglutination method. Encephalic tissue of three 6-banded armadillos, one 9-banded armadillo, one coatimundi and one nutria were digested in acid pepsin solution and inoculated into Swiss mice for parasite isolation. Only one serum sample from a nine-banded armadillo and two from six-banded armadillos reacted producing titers equal to 256, 512 and 512, respectively. T gondii was isolated in two 6-banded armadillos, one of which was not positive in the serological test. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Advantages and limitations of Costa Rica's experience in competition policy. A benchmark for the rest of the countries in the Central American region

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Partial external mitral annuloplasty in dogs with myxomatous mitral valve degeneration and congestive heart failure: Outcome in 9 cases

Objective: To report the outcome of partial external mitral annuloplasty in dogs with congestive heart failure (CHF) due to mitral regurgitation caused by myxomatous mitral valve degeneration (MMVD). Animals, materials and methods: Nine client-owned dogs with CHF due to mitral regurgitation caused by MMVD. Surgery consisted of a double row of pledget-butressed continuous suture lines placed into the left ventricle parallel and just ventral to the atrioventricular groove between the subsinuosal branch of the left circumflex coronary artery and the paraconal branch of the left coronary artery. Results: Two dogs died during surgery because of severe hemorrhage. Two dogs died 12 and 36 h after surgery because of acute myocardial infarction. Three dogs were euthanized 2 and 4 weeks after surgery because of progression of CHF, 1 was euthanized 30 days after surgery for non-cardiac disease, and 1 survived for 48 months. In the 5 dogs that survived to discharge there was no significant change in the left atrium to aortic ratio with surgery (3.6 ± 0.56 before surgery; 3.1 ± 0.4 after surgery; p = 0.182), and no significant change in mitral regurgitant fraction in 4 dogs in which this measurement was made (78.7 ± 2.0% before surgery; 68.7 ± 7.5% after surgery; p = 0.09). Conclusions: Partial external mitral annuloplasty in dogs with CHF due to MMVD was associated with high perioperative mortality and most dogs that survived to discharge failed to show clinically relevant palliation from this procedure. Consequently, partial external mitral annuloplasty is not a viable option for dogs with mitral regurgitation due to MMVD that has progressed to the stage of CHF. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probiotics: the scientific evidence in the context of inflammatory bowel disease

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)