Random walks in local dynamics of network losses

We suggest a model for data losses in a single node (memory buffer) of a packet-switched network (like the Internet) which reduces to one-dimensional discrete random walks with unusual boundary conditions. By construction, the model has critical behavior with a sharp transition from exponentially small to finite losses with increasing data arrival rate. We show that for a finite-capacity buffer at the critical point the loss rate exhibits strong fluctuations and non-Markovian power-law correlations in time, in spite of the Markovian character of the data arrival process.

Optimization of Discrete-Time, Stochastic Systems

* This research was supported by a grant from the Greek Ministry of Industry and Technology.

Seasonal dynamics of an aquatic macroinvertebrate assembly (Hydrobiological case study of Lake Balaton No. 2)

In 2002, 2003 and 2004, we took macoinvertebrate samples on a total of 36 occasions at the Badacsony bay of Lake Balaton. Our sampling site was characterised by areas of open water (in 2003 and 2004 full of reed-grass) as well as by areas covered by common reed (Phragmites australis) and narrowleaf cattail (Typha angustifolia). Samples were taken both from water body and benthic ooze by use of a stiff hand net. We have gained our data from processing 208 individual samples. We took samples frequently from early spring until late autumn for a deeper understanding of the processes of seasonal dynamics. The main seasonal patterns and temporal changes of diversity were described. We constructed a weather-dependent simulation model of the processes of seasonal dynamics in the interest of a possible further utilization of our data in climate change research. We described the total number of individuals, biovolume and diversity of all macroinvertebrate species with a single index and used the temporal trends of this index for simulation modelling. Our discrete deterministic model includes only the impact of temperature, other interactions might only appear concealed. Running the model for different climate change scenarios it became possible to estimate conditions for the 2070-2100 period. The results, however, should be treated very prudently not only because our model is very simple but also because the scenarios are the results of different models.

Essays on Job Search and Labor Market Dynamics

This dissertation consists of three separate essays on job search and labor market dynamics. In the first essay, “The Impact of Labor Market Conditions on Job Creation: Evidence from Firm Level Data”, I study how much changes in labor market conditions reduce employment fluctuations over the business cycle. Changes in labor market conditions make hiring more expensive during expansions and cheaper during recessions, creating counter-cyclical incentives for job creation. I estimate firm level elasticities of labor demand with respect to changes in labor market conditions, considering two margins: changes in labor market tightness and changes in wages. Using employer-employee matched data from Brazil, I find that all firms are more sensitive to changes in wages rather than labor market tightness, and there is substantial heterogeneity in labor demand elasticity across regions. Based on these results, I demonstrate that changes in labor market conditions reduce the variance of employment growth over the business cycle by 20% in a median region, and this effect is equally driven by changes along each margin. Moreover, I show that the magnitude of the effect of labor market conditions on employment growth can be significantly affected by economic policy. In particular, I document that the rapid growth of the national minimum wages in Brazil in 1997-2010 amplified the impact of the change in labor market conditions during local expansions and diminished this impact during local recessions.

In the second essay, “A Framework for Estimating Persistence of Local Labor

Demand Shocks”, I propose a decomposition which allows me to study the persistence of local labor demand shocks. Persistence of labor demand shocks varies across industries, and the incidence of shocks in a region depends on the regional industrial composition. As a result, less diverse regions are more likely to experience deeper shocks, but not necessarily more long lasting shocks. Building on this idea, I propose a decomposition of local labor demand shocks into idiosyncratic location shocks and nationwide industry shocks and estimate the variance and the persistence of these shocks using the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) in 1990-2013.

In the third essay, “Conditional Choice Probability Estimation of Continuous- Time Job Search Models”, co-authored with Peter Arcidiacono and Arnaud Maurel, we propose a novel, computationally feasible method of estimating non-stationary job search models. Non-stationary job search models arise in many applications, where policy change can be anticipated by the workers. The most prominent example of such policy is the expiration of unemployment benefits. However, estimating these models still poses a considerable computational challenge, because of the need to solve a differential equation numerically at each step of the optimization routine. We overcome this challenge by adopting conditional choice probability methods, widely used in dynamic discrete choice literature, to job search models and show how the hazard rate out of unemployment and the distribution of the accepted wages, which can be estimated in many datasets, can be used to infer the value of unemployment. We demonstrate how to apply our method by analyzing the effect of the unemployment benefit expiration on duration of unemployment using the data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) in 1996-2007.

Model reduction for nonlinear aerodynamics and aeroelasticity using a Discrete Empirical Interpolation Method

A novel surrogate model is proposed in lieu of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solvers, for fast nonlinear aerodynamic and aeroelastic modeling. A nonlinear function is identified on selected interpolation points by
a discrete empirical interpolation method (DEIM). The flow field is then reconstructed using a least square approximation of the flow modes extracted
by proper orthogonal decomposition (POD). The aeroelastic reduce order
model (ROM) is completed by introducing a nonlinear mapping function
between displacements and the DEIM points. The proposed model is investigated to predict the aerodynamic forces due to forced motions using
a N ACA 0012 airfoil undergoing a prescribed pitching oscillation. To investigate aeroelastic problems at transonic conditions, a pitch/plunge airfoil
and a cropped delta wing aeroelastic models are built using linear structural models. The presence of shock-waves triggers the appearance of limit
cycle oscillations (LCO), which the model is able to predict. For all cases
tested, the new ROM shows the ability to replicate the nonlinear aerodynamic forces, structural displacements and reconstruct the complete flow
field with sufficient accuracy at a fraction of the cost of full order CFD
model.

Evolutionary dynamics under various modes of reproduction

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Age-Specific Fertility Dynamics: Sub-Saharan African Fertility in a Global Context

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Big bang bifurcations in von Bertalanffy’s dynamics with strong and weak Allee effects

The main purpose of this work was to study population dynamic discrete models in which the growth of the population is described by generalized von Bertalanffy's functions, with an adjustment or correction factor of polynomial type. The consideration of this correction factor is made with the aim to introduce the Allee effect. To the class of generalized von Bertalanffy's functions is identified and characterized subclasses of strong and weak Allee's functions and functions with no Allee effect. This classification is founded on the concepts of strong and weak Allee's effects to population growth rates associated. A complete description of the dynamic behavior is given, where we provide necessary conditions for the occurrence of unconditional and essential extinction types. The bifurcation structures of the parameter plane are analyzed regarding the evolution of the Allee limit with the aim to understand how the transition from strong Allee effect to no Allee effect, passing through the weak Allee effect, is realized. To generalized von Bertalanffy's functions with strong and weak Allee effects is identified an Allee's effect region, to which is associated the concepts of chaotic semistability curve and Allee's bifurcation point. We verified that under some sufficient conditions, generalized von Bertalanffy's functions have a particular bifurcation structure: the big bang bifurcations of the so-called box-within-a-box type. To this family of maps, the Allee bifurcation points and the big bang bifurcation points are characterized by the symmetric of Allee's limit and by a null intrinsic growth rate. The present paper is also a significant contribution in the framework of the big bang bifurcation analysis for continuous 1D maps and unveil their relationship with the explosion birth and the extinction phenomena.

All-regime Lagrangian-Remap numerical schemes for the gas dynamics equations. Applications to the large friction and low Mach coefficients

In this talk, we propose an all regime Lagrange-Projection like numerical scheme for the gas dynamics equations. By all regime, we mean that the numerical scheme is able to compute accurate approximate solutions with an under-resolved discretization with respect to the Mach number M, i.e. such that the ratio between the Mach number M and the mesh size or the time step is small with respect to 1. The key idea is to decouple acoustic and transport phenomenon and then alter the numerical flux in the acoustic approximation to obtain a uniform truncation error in term of M. This modified scheme is conservative and endowed with good stability properties with respect to the positivity of the density and the internal energy. A discrete entropy inequality under a condition on the modification is obtained thanks to a reinterpretation of the modified scheme in the Harten Lax and van Leer formalism. A natural extension to multi-dimensional problems discretized over unstructured mesh is proposed. Then a simple and efficient semi implicit scheme is also proposed. The resulting scheme is stable under a CFL condition driven by the (slow) material waves and not by the (fast) acoustic waves and so verifies the all regime property. Numerical evidences are proposed and show the ability of the scheme to deal with tests where the flow regime may vary from low to high Mach values.

On the study of train-track dynamic interactions caused by rail welds on discrete supported rails

The paper studies the influence of rail weld dip on wheel-rail contact dynamics, with particular reference to freight trains where it is important to increase the operating speed and also the load transported. This has produced a very precise model, albeit simple and cost-effective, which has enabled train-track dynamic interactions over rail welds to be studied to make it possible to quantify the influence on dynamic forces and displacements of the welding geometry; of the position of the weld relative to the sleeper; of the vehicle's speed; and of the axle load and wheelset unsprung mass. It is a vertical model on the spatial domain and is drawn up in a simple fashion from vertical track receptances. For the type of track and vehicle used, the results obtained enable the quantification of increases in wheel-rail contact forces due to the new speed and load conditions.

Frequency of elemental events of intracellular Ca²⁺ dynamics

The dynamics of intracellular Ca²⁺ is driven by random events called Ca²⁺ puffs, in which Ca²⁺ is liberated from intracellular stores. We show that the emergence of Ca²⁺ puffs can be mapped to an escape process. The mean first passage times that correspond to the stochastic fraction of puff periods are computed from a novel master equation and two Fokker-Planck equations. Our results demonstrate that the mathematical modeling of Ca²⁺ puffs has to account for the discrete character of the Ca²⁺ release sites and does not permit a continuous description of the number of open channels.

Rare sex or out of reach equilibrium? The dynamics of F-IS in partially clonal organisms

Background: Partially clonal organisms are very common in nature, yet the influence of partial asexuality on the temporal dynamics of genetic diversity remains poorly understood. Mathematical models accounting for clonality predict deviations only for extremely rare sex and only towards mean inbreeding coefficient (F-IS) over bar < 0. Yet in partially clonal species, both F-IS < 0 and F-IS > 0 are frequently observed also in populations where there is evidence for a significant amount of sexual reproduction. Here, we studied the joint effects of partial clonality, mutation and genetic drift with a state-and-time discrete Markov chain model to describe the dynamics of F-IS over time under increasing rates of clonality. Results: Results of the mathematical model and simulations show that partial clonality slows down the asymptotic convergence to F-IS = 0. Thus, although clonality alone does not lead to departures from Hardy-Weinberg expectations once reached the final equilibrium state, both negative and positive F-IS values can arise transiently even at intermediate rates of clonality. More importantly, such "transient" departures from Hardy Weinberg proportions may last long as clonality tunes up the temporal variation of F-IS and reduces its rate of change over time, leading to a hyperbolic increase of the maximal time needed to reach the final mean (F-IS,F-infinity) over bar value expected at equilibrium. Conclusion: Our results argue for a dynamical interpretation of F-IS in clonal populations. Negative values cannot be interpreted as unequivocal evidence for extremely scarce sex but also as intermediate rates of clonality in finite populations. Complementary observations (e.g. frequency distribution of multiloci genotypes, population history) or time series data may help to discriminate between different possible conclusions on the extent of clonality when mean (F-IS) over bar values deviating from zero and/or a large variation of F-IS over loci are observed.

Gyrokinetic modelling of plasma transport and investigation on test particle dynamics

Turbulent plasmas inside tokamaks are modeled and studied using guiding center theory, applied to charged test particles, in a Hamiltonian framework. The equations of motion for the guiding center dynamics, under the conditions of a constant and uniform magnetic field and turbulent electrostatic field are derived by averaging over the fast gyroangle, for the first and second order in the guiding center potential, using invertible changes of coordinates such as Lie transforms. The equations of motion are then made dimensionless, exploiting temporal and spatial periodicities of the model chosen for the electrostatic potential. They are implemented numerically in Python. Fast Fourier Transform and its inverse are used. Improvements to the original Python scripts are made, notably the introduction of a power-law curve fitting to account for anomalous diffusion, the possibility to integrate the equations in two steps to save computational time by removing trapped trajectories, and the implementation of multicolored stroboscopic plots to distinguish between trapped and untrapped guiding centers. The post-processing of the results is made in MATLAB. The values and ranges of the parameters chosen for the simulations are selected based on numerous simulations used as feedback tools. In particular, a recurring value for the threshold to detect trapped trajectories is evidenced. Effects of the Larmor radius, the amplitude of the guiding center potential and the intensity of its second order term are studied by analyzing their diffusive regimes, their stroboscopic plots and the shape of guiding center potentials. The main result is the identification of cases anomalous diffusion depending on the values of the parameters (mostly the Larmor radius). The transitions between diffusive regimes are identified. The presence of highways for the super-diffusive trajectories are unveiled. The influence of the charge on these transitions from diffusive to ballistic behaviors is analyzed.

Local and nonlocal integro-differential reaction-diffusion models for protein dynamics in Alzheimer's disease

In this work, integro-differential reaction-diffusion models are presented for the description of the temporal and spatial evolution of the concentrations of Abeta and tau proteins involved in Alzheimer's disease. Initially, a local model is analysed: this is obtained by coupling with an interaction term two heterodimer models, modified by adding diffusion and Holling functional terms of the second type. We then move on to the presentation of three nonlocal models, which differ according to the type of the growth (exponential, logistic or Gompertzian) considered for healthy proteins. In these models integral terms are introduced to consider the interaction between proteins that are located at different spatial points possibly far apart. For each of the models introduced, the determination of equilibrium points with their stability and a study of the clearance inequalities are carried out. In addition, since the integrals introduced imply a spatial nonlocality in the models exhibited, some general features of nonlocal models are presented. Afterwards, with the aim of developing simulations, it is decided to transfer the nonlocal models to a brain graph called connectome. Therefore, after setting out the construction of such a graph, we move on to the description of Laplacian and convolution operations on a graph. Taking advantage of all these elements, we finally move on to the translation of the continuous models described above into discrete models on the connectome. To conclude, the results of some simulations concerning the discrete models just derived are presented.

Mechanical Properties And Fracture Dynamics Of Silicene Membranes.

As graphene has become one of the most important materials, there is renewed interest in other similar structures. One example is silicene, the silicon analogue of graphene. It shares some of the remarkable graphene properties, such as the Dirac cone, but presents some distinct ones, such as a pronounced structural buckling. We have investigated, through density functional based tight-binding (DFTB), as well as reactive molecular dynamics (using ReaxFF), the mechanical properties of suspended single-layer silicene. We calculated the elastic constants, analyzed the fracture patterns and edge reconstructions. We also addressed the stress distributions, unbuckling mechanisms and the fracture dependence on the temperature. We analysed the differences due to distinct edge morphologies, namely zigzag and armchair.